Ancient bears provide insights into Pleistocene ice age refugia in Southeast Alaska.

During the Late Pleistocene, major parts of North America were periodically covered by ice sheets. However, there are still questions about whether ice-free refugia were present in the Alexander Archipelago along the Southeast (SE) Alaska coast during the last glacial maximum (LGM). Numerous subfossils have been recovered from caves in SE Alaska, including American black (Ursus americanus) and brown (U. arctos) bears, which today are found in the Alexander Archipelago but are genetically distinct from mainland bear populations. Hence, these bear species offer an ideal system to investigate long-term occupation, potential refugial survival and lineage turnover. Here, we present genetic analyses based on 99 new complete mitochondrial genomes from ancient and modern brown and black bears spanning the last ~45,000 years. Black bears form two SE Alaskan subclades, one preglacial and another postglacial, that diverged >100,000 years ago. All postglacial ancient brown bears are closely related to modern brown bears in the archipelago, while a single preglacial brown bear is found in a distantly related clade. A hiatus in the bear subfossil record around the LGM and the deep split of their pre- and postglacial subclades fail to support a hypothesis of continuous occupancy in SE Alaska throughout the LGM for either species. Our results are consistent with an absence of refugia along the SE Alaska coast, but indicate that vegetation quickly expanded after deglaciation, allowing bears to recolonize the area after a short-lived LGM peak.

A Platform for Data-Centric, Continuous Epidemiological Analyses (EpiGraphHub): Descriptive Analysis.

BACKGROUND: Guaranteeing durability, provenance, accessibility, and trust in open data sets can be challenging for researchers and organizations that rely on public repositories of data critical for epidemiology and other health analytics. The required data repositories are often difficult to locate and may require conversion to a standard data format. Data-hosting websites may also change or become unavailable without warning. A single change to the rules in one repository can hinder updating a public dashboard reliant on data pulled from external sources. These concerns are particularly challenging at the international level, because policies on systems aimed at harmonizing health and related data are typically dictated by national governments to serve their individual needs. OBJECTIVE: In this paper, we introduce a comprehensive public health data platform, EpiGraphHub, that aims to provide a single interoperable repository for open health and related data. METHODS: The platform, curated by the international research community, allows secure local integration of sensitive data while facilitating the development of data-driven applications and reports for decision-makers. Its main components include centrally managed databases with fine-grained access control to data, fully automated and documented data collection and transformation, and a powerful web-based data exploration and visualization tool. RESULTS: EpiGraphHub is already being used for hosting a growing collection of open data sets and for automating epidemiological analyses based on them. The project has also released an open-source software library with the analytical methods used in the platform. CONCLUSIONS: The platform is fully open source and open to external users. It is in active development with the goal of maximizing its value for large-scale public health studies.

Leveraging human resources for outbreak analysis: lessons from an international collaboration to support the sub-Saharan African COVID-19 response.

Emerging infectious diseases are a growing threat in sub-Saharan African countries, but the human and technical capacity to quickly respond to outbreaks remains limited. Here, we describe the experience and lessons learned from a joint project with the WHO Regional Office for Africa (WHO AFRO) to support the sub-Saharan African COVID-19 response.In June 2020, WHO AFRO contracted a number of consultants to reinforce the COVID-19 response in member states by providing actionable epidemiological analysis. Given the urgency of the situation and the magnitude of work required, we recruited a worldwide network of field experts, academics and students in the areas of public health, data science and social science to support the effort. Most analyses were performed on a merged line list of COVID-19 cases using a reverse engineering model (line listing built using data extracted from national situation reports shared by countries with the Regional Office for Africa as per the IHR (2005) obligations). The data analysis platform The Renku Project ( https://renkulab.io ) provided secure data storage and permitted collaborative coding.Over a period of 6 months, 63 contributors from 32 nations (including 17 African countries) participated in the project. A total of 45 in-depth country-specific epidemiological reports and data quality reports were prepared for 28 countries. Spatial transmission and mortality risk indices were developed for 23 countries. Text and video-based training modules were developed to integrate and mentor new members. The team also began to develop EpiGraph Hub, a web application that automates the generation of reports similar to those we created, and includes more advanced data analyses features (e.g. mathematical models, geospatial analyses) to deliver real-time, actionable results to decision-makers.Within a short period, we implemented a global collaborative approach to health data management and analyses to advance national responses to health emergencies and outbreaks. The interdisciplinary team, the hands-on training and mentoring, and the participation of local researchers were key to the success of this initiative.

An early dog from southeast Alaska supports a coastal route for the first dog migration into the Americas.

The oldest confirmed remains of domestic dogs in North America are from mid-continent archaeological sites dated approximately 9900 calibrated years before present (cal BP). Although this date suggests that dogs may not have arrived alongside the first Native Americans, the timing and routes for the entrance of New World dogs remain uncertain. Here, we present a complete mitochondrial genome of a dog from southeast Alaska, dated to 10 150 ± 260 cal BP. We compared this high-coverage genome with data from modern dog breeds, historical Arctic dogs and American precontact dogs (PCDs) from before European arrival. Our analyses demonstrate that the ancient dog belongs to the PCD lineage, which diverged from Siberian dogs around 16 700 years ago. This timing roughly coincides with the minimum suggested date for the opening of the North Pacific coastal (NPC) route along the Cordilleran Ice Sheet and genetic evidence for the initial peopling of the Americas. This ancient southeast Alaskan dog occupies an early branching position within the PCD clade, indicating it represents a close relative of the earliest PCDs that were brought alongside people migrating from eastern Beringia southward along the NPC to the rest of the Americas. The stable isotope δ13C value of this early dog indicates a marine diet, different from the younger mid-continent PCDs' terrestrial diet. Although PCDs were largely replaced by modern European dog breeds, our results indicate that their population decline started approximately 2000 years BP, coinciding with the expansion of Inuit peoples, who are associated with traditional sled-dog culture. Our findings suggest that dogs formed part of the initial human habitation of the New World, and provide insights into their replacement by both Arctic and European lineages.

Spatiotemporal variations on infrared temperature as a thermal comfort indicator for cattle under agroforestry systems.

With the expanding use of thermal assessment techniques in beef cattle, infrared thermography has become a promising tool for assessing the environment for animal thermal comfort. Goals of this study were: (1) to evaluate cattle thermal comfort in agroforestry systems with different shade availability (2) to verify the spatiotemporal variations of infrared temperature inside agroforestry systems, and; (3) to test infrared thermography as a potential tool to assess animal thermal comfort indices in agroforestry systems. A trial was carried out between June 2015 and February 2016, covering Central-Brazil's dry winter and rainy summer seasons, respectively. The experimental area of Embrapa Beef Cattle is located in Campo Grande (Mato Grosso do Sul), coordinates 20°24'53″ S, 54°42'26″ W and 558 m altitude. The 12 ha plot has two agroforestry systems varying shade availability. Traditional Black Globe Temperature and Humidity Index, Heat Load Index and Radiation Thermal Load were determined, from measurements using digital thermo-hygrometers, with datalogger. Surface temperature and humidity of tree canopies and pasture were determined using an infrared thermographic camera. Results show spatiotemporal variations in infrared temperature. This means that the environment inside agroforestry systems is not homogeneously comfortable for cattle, and the system with the lowest shade availability has the greatest heat accumulation area. Weak to strong associations were identified between infrared variables and thermal comfort indices (0.08 = r ≤ 0.75). Positive relationships were also obtained and equally well explained by the Black Globe Temperature and Humidity Index and Heat Load Index (0.55 = R2 ≤ 0.94). We conclude that infrared thermography can be used as a tool to assess thermal comfort indices in agroforestry systems and to determine onset of animal thermal stress from environment and heat body accumulation.

A modelling approach for correcting reporting delays in disease surveillance data.

One difficulty for real-time tracking of epidemics is related to reporting delay. The reporting delay may be due to laboratory confirmation, logistical problems, infrastructure difficulties, and so on. The ability to correct the available information as quickly as possible is crucial, in terms of decision making such as issuing warnings to the public and local authorities. A Bayesian hierarchical modelling approach is proposed as a flexible way of correcting the reporting delays and to quantify the associated uncertainty. Implementation of the model is fast due to the use of the integrated nested Laplace approximation. The approach is illustrated on dengue fever incidence data in Rio de Janeiro, and severe acute respiratory infection data in the state of Paraná, Brazil.

Decentralising scientific publishing: can the blockchain improve science communication?

We present a decentralised solution for managing scientific communication, based on distributed ledger technologies, also called blockchains. The proposed system aims to solve incentive problems displayed by traditional systems in scientific communication and publication. A minimal working model is presented, defining roles, processes, and expected results from the novel system. The proposed solution is viable, given the current status of blockchain technology, and should lead to a rethinking of current practices and their consequences for scientific communication.

Ensuring successful introduction of Wolbachia in natural populations of Aedes aegypti by means of feedback control.

The control of the spread of dengue fever by introduction of the intracellular parasitic bacterium Wolbachia in populations of the vector Aedes aegypti, is presently one of the most promising tools for eliminating dengue, in the absence of an efficient vaccine. The success of this operation requires locally careful planning to determine the adequate number of individuals carrying the Wolbachia parasite that need to be introduced into the natural population. The introduced mosquitoes are expected to eventually replace the Wolbachia-free population and guarantee permanent protection against the transmission of dengue to human. In this study, we propose and analyze a model describing the fundamental aspects of the competition between mosquitoes carrying Wolbachia and mosquitoes free of the parasite. We then use feedback control techniques to devise an introduction protocol that is proved to guarantee that the population converges to a stable equilibrium where the totality of mosquitoes carry Wolbachia.

Zika is not a reason for missing the Olympic Games in Rio de Janeiro: response to the open letter of Dr Attaran and colleagues to Dr Margaret Chan, Director - General, WHO, on the Zika threat to the Olympic and Paralympic Games.

Attaran and colleagues in an open letter to WHO expressed their concern about the upcoming Olympic and Paralympic Games in Rio de Janeiro and the threat posed by the Zika epidemic (Attaran 2016). We agree that Zika virus is of great public health concern and much remains to be known about this disease. Care should be taken to reduce the risk of infection, especially to pregnant women. However, we argue that this is not sufficient reason for changing the original plans for the Games, in particular because of the time of the year when they will take place. The present article outlines several scientific results related to Zika and mosquito-borne infectious diseases dynamics that we believe ratify the current position of WHO in not endorsing the postponing or relocation of the 2016 Olympic and Paralympic Games (WHO 2016).

High quality genomes produced from single MinION flow cells clarify polyploid and demographic histories of critically endangered Fraxinus (ash) species.

With populations of threatened and endangered species declining worldwide, efforts are being made to generate high quality genomic records of these species before they are lost forever. Here, we demonstrate that data from single Oxford Nanopore Technologies (ONT) MinION flow cells can, even in the absence of highly accurate short DNA-read polishing, produce high quality de novo plant genome assemblies adequate for downstream analyses, such as synteny and ploidy evaluations, paleodemographic analyses, and phylogenomics. This study focuses on three North American ash tree species in the genus Fraxinus (Oleaceae) that were recently added to the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List as critically endangered. Our results support a hexaploidy event at the base of the Oleaceae as well as a subsequent whole genome duplication shared by Syringa, Osmanthus, Olea, and Fraxinus. Finally, we demonstrate the use of ONT long-read sequencing data to reveal patterns in demographic history.

Carcass and meat characteristics of Nellore young bulls fed diet using cottonseed cake as a replacer of the forage fiber source.

The aim of this study was to assess the effects of substituting traditional forage fiber sources with cottonseed cake in the diet on both the quantitative and qualitative characteristics of carcass and meat in Nelore young bulls. Twenty-four Nelore steers starting with an average weight of 377.8 ± 43.5 kg, were individually housed in stalls and provided with individualized feeding over a 112-day confinement period. The study followed a completely randomized design with two treatments and 12 replications. The diets incorporated either whole plant corn silage (WPCS) and, cottonseed cake (CSC) as fiber sources, at a rate of 300 g/kg of dry matter. The CSC diet promoted higher carcass weight. Aging animal meat for seven days significantly decreased the shear force from 83.4 to 71.6 N. Although diets did not influence meat composition, WPCS diet provided higher concentrations of C16:1, C18:1n9c, C18:3n3, and C22:2 acid, and CSC diet higher concentrations of C15:0, C18:1n9t, C18:2n6c, and 20:3n3. The WPCS diet provided higher concentrations of monounsaturated fatty acids and ω9, and the CSC diet had higher concentrations of ω6 and ω6:ω3 ratio in meat. Cottonseed cake used as a fiber source increases the concentration of polyunsaturated fatty acids and ω6 fatty acids in the meat of young bulls finished in feedlot.

Mathematical model of the dynamics of transmission and control of sporotrichosis in domestic cats.

Sporotrichosis is a subcutaneous mycosis with a global distribution, also known as "rose gardener's disease". Brazil is experiencing a rapid spread of the zoonotic transmission of of Sporothrix brasiliensis, the main etiological agent of this disease in this country, affecting domestic felines. Cost-effective interventions need to be developed to control this emergent public health problem. To allow for the comparison of alternative control strategies, we propose in this paper, a mathematical model representing the transmission of S. brasiliensis among cats, stratified by age and sex. Analytical properties of the model are derived and simulations show possible strategies for reducing the endemic levels of the disease in the cat population, with a positive impact on human health. The scenarios included mass treatment of infected cats and mass implementation of contact reduction practices, such as neutering. The results indicate that mass treatment can reduce substantially the disease prevalence, and this effect is potentialized when combined with neutering or other contact-reduction interventions. On the other hand, contact-reduction methods alone are not sufficient to reduce prevalence.

The effectiveness of COVID-19 vaccines against severe cases and deaths in Brazil from 2021 to 2022: a registry-based study.

Background: Brazil started the COVID-19 mass vaccination in January 2021 with CoronaVac and ChAdOx1, followed by BNT162b2 and Ad26.COV2.S vaccines. By the end of 2021, more than 317 million vaccine doses were administered in the adult population. This study aimed at estimating the effectiveness of the primary series of COVID-19 vaccination and booster shots in protecting against severe cases and deaths in Brazil during the first year of vaccination. Methods: A cohort dataset of over 158 million vaccination and severe cases records linked from official national registries was analyzed via a mixed-effects Poisson model, adjusted for age, state of residence, time after immunization, and calendar time to estimate the absolute vaccine effectiveness of the primary series of vaccination and the relative effectiveness of the booster. The method permitted analysis of effectiveness against hospitalizations and deaths, including in the periods of variant dominance. Findings: Vaccine effectiveness against severe cases and deaths remained over 25% and 50%, respectively, after 19 weeks from primary vaccination of BNT162b2, ChAdOx1, or CoronaVac vaccines. The boosters conferred greater protection than the primary series of vaccination, with heterologous boosters providing marginally greater protection than homologous. The effectiveness against hospitalization during the Omicron dominance in the 60+ years old population started at 61.7% (95% CI, 26.1-86.2) for ChAdOx1, 95.6% (95% CI, 82.4-99.9) for CoronaVac, and 72.3% (95% CI, 51.4-87.4) for the BNT162b2 vaccine. Interpretation: This study provides real-world evidence of the effectiveness of COVID-19 vaccination in Brazil, including during the Omicron wave, demonstrating protection even after waning effectiveness. Comparisons of the effectiveness among different vaccines require caution due to potential bias effects related to age groups, periods in the pandemic, and eventual behavioural changes. Funding: Fundação Oswaldo Cruz (FIOCRUZ), Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq), Fundação de Amparo a Pesquisa do Estado do Rio de Janeiro (FAPERJ), Pan American Health Organization (PAHO), Departamento de Ciência e Tecnologia da Secretaria de Ciência, Tecnologia, Inovação e Insumos Estratégicos em Saúde do Ministério da Saúde do Brasil (DECIT/SCTIE/MS).

Radiation from a D-dimensional collision of shock waves: a remarkably simple fit formula.

Recently we estimated the energy radiated in the head-on collision of two equal D-dimensional Aichelburg-Sexl shock waves, for even D, by solving perturbatively, to first order, the Einstein equations in the future of the collision. Here, we report on the solution for the odd D case. After finding the wave forms, we extract the estimated radiated energy for D=5, 7, 9, and 11 and unveil a remarkably simple pattern, given the complexity of the framework: (for all D) the estimated fraction of radiated energy matches the analytic expression 1/2-1/D, within the numerical error (less than 0.1%). Both this fit and the apparent horizon bound converge to 1/2 as D→∞.

A prospective randomized study comparing partially covered metal stent versus plastic multistent in the endoscopic management of patients with postoperative benign bile duct strictures: a follow-up above 5 years.

BACKGROUND: Self-expandable metal stents (SEMS) are often used for biliary drainage due to obstruction of neoplastic etiology, with better results than plastic stents, but seldom for biliary drainage of benign etiology. OBJECTIVE: Primary end point: Verify bile duct patency after placement of self-expandable metal and (multiple) plastic stents in patients with benign strictures resulting from bile duct surgery with follow-up above five years. Secondary end point: Evaluate long-term complication rate in patients with metal self-expandable and plastic stents. RESULTS: Self-expandable stents were placed in 15 patients and multiple plastic stents in 16. Mean age was 45 years with prevalence of female patients in both groups and no statistical difference between groups was observed (SEMS: 66.7%; plastic multistent: 62.5%; p=0.8). Complication rate resulting from stents occurred more often in the metal stent group (40% versus 25%; p=0.37). In the metal stent group, most frequent complications were hemorrhage (n=3; 20%), stent migration (n=2; 13.3%) and perforation (n=1; 6.7%). In plastic multistent group, most frequent complications were perforation (n:2; 12.5%), hemorrhage (n=1; 6.2%) and ulcer (n=1; 6.2%). Long-term patency rate after biliary drainage was higher in the self-expandable metal stent group, SEMS: 81.67% ± 2.56; CI: 76.47-86.54; plastic multistent: 71.88% ± 2.93; CI: 66.08-77.27. CONCLUSION: The temporary passage of partially covered self-expandable metal stents is a feasible option for patients with benign bile duct strictures.

COVID-19 in Switzerland real-time epidemiological analyses powered by EpiGraphHub.

Here we present the design and results of an analytical pipeline for COVID-19 data for Switzerland. It is applied to openly available data from the beginning of the epidemic in 2020 to the present day (august 2022). We analyzed the spatio-temporal patterns of the spread of SARS-CoV2 throughout the country, applying Bayesian inference to estimate population prevalence and hospitalization ratio. We also developed forecasting models to characterize the transmission dynamics for all the country's cantons taking into account their spatial correlations in COVID incidence. The two-week forecasts of new daily hospitalizations showed good accuracy, as reported herein. These analyses' raw data and live results are available on the open-source EpiGraphHub platform to support further studies.

Faster indicators of chikungunya incidence using Google searches.

Chikungunya, a mosquito-borne disease, is a growing threat in Brazil, where over 640,000 cases have been reported since 2017. However, there are often long delays between diagnoses of chikungunya cases and their entry in the national monitoring system, leaving policymakers without the up-to-date case count statistics they need. In contrast, weekly data on Google searches for chikungunya is available with no delay. Here, we analyse whether Google search data can help improve rapid estimates of chikungunya case counts in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. We build on a Bayesian approach suitable for data that is subject to long and varied delays, and find that including Google search data reduces both model error and uncertainty. These improvements are largest during epidemics, which are particularly important periods for policymakers. Including Google search data in chikungunya surveillance systems may therefore help policymakers respond to future epidemics more quickly.

An in-depth statistical analysis of the COVID-19 pandemic's initial spread in the WHO African region.

During the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic, sub-Saharan African countries experienced comparatively lower rates of SARS-CoV-2 infections and related deaths than in other parts of the world, the reasons for which remain unclear. Yet, there was also considerable variation between countries. Here, we explored potential drivers of this variation among 46 of the 47 WHO African region Member States in a cross-sectional study. We described five indicators of early COVID-19 spread and severity for each country as of 29 November 2020: delay in detection of the first case, length of the early epidemic growth period, cumulative and peak attack rates and crude case fatality ratio (CFR). We tested the influence of 13 pre-pandemic and pandemic response predictor variables on the country-level variation in the spread and severity indicators using multivariate statistics and regression analysis. We found that wealthier African countries, with larger tourism industries and older populations, had higher peak (p<0.001) and cumulative (p<0.001) attack rates, and lower CFRs (p=0.021). More urbanised countries also had higher attack rates (p<0.001 for both indicators). Countries applying more stringent early control policies experienced greater delay in detection of the first case (p<0.001), but the initial propagation of the virus was slower in relatively wealthy, touristic African countries (p=0.023). Careful and early implementation of strict government policies were likely pivotal to delaying the initial phase of the pandemic, but did not have much impact on other indicators of spread and severity. An over-reliance on disruptive containment measures in more resource-limited contexts is neither effective nor sustainable. We thus urge decision-makers to prioritise the reduction of resource-based health disparities, and surveillance and response capacities in particular, to ensure global resilience against future threats to public health and economic stability.

A Framework for Weather-Driven Dengue Virus Transmission Dynamics in Different Brazilian Regions.

This study investigated a model to assess the role of climate fluctuations on dengue (DENV) dynamics from 2010 to 2019 in four Brazilian municipalities. The proposed transmission model was based on a preexisting SEI-SIR model, but also incorporates the vector vertical transmission and the vector's egg compartment, thus allowing rainfall to be introduced to modulate egg-hatching. Temperature and rainfall satellite data throughout the decade were used as climatic model inputs. A sensitivity analysis was performed to understand the role of each parameter. The model-simulated scenario was compared to the observed dengue incidence and the findings indicate that the model was able to capture the observed seasonal dengue incidence pattern with good accuracy until 2016, although higher deviations were observed from 2016 to 2019. The results further demonstrate that vertical transmission fluctuations can affect attack transmission rates and patterns, suggesting the need to investigate the contribution of vertical transmission to dengue transmission dynamics in future assessments. The improved understanding of the relationship between different environment variables and dengue transmission achieved by the proposed model can contribute to public health policies regarding mosquito-borne diseases.