RESUMO
During the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic, epidemic models have been central to policy-making. Public health responses have been shaped by model-based projections and inferences, especially related to the impact of various non-pharmaceutical interventions. Accompanying this has been increased scrutiny over model performance, model assumptions, and the way that uncertainty is incorporated and presented. Here we consider a population-level model, focusing on how distributions representing host infectiousness and the infection-to-death times are modelled, and particularly on the impact of inferred epidemic characteristics if these distributions are mis-specified. We introduce an SIR-type model with the infected population structured by 'infected age', i.e. the number of days since first being infected, a formulation that enables distributions to be incorporated that are consistent with clinical data. We show that inference based on simpler models without infected age, which implicitly mis-specify these distributions, leads to substantial errors in inferred quantities relevant to policy-making, such as the reproduction number and the impact of interventions. We consider uncertainty quantification via a Bayesian approach, implementing this for both synthetic and real data focusing on UK data in the period 15 Feb-14 Jul 2020, and emphasising circumstances where it is misleading to neglect uncertainty. This manuscript was submitted as part of a theme issue on "Modelling COVID-19 and Preparedness for Future Pandemics".
Assuntos
COVID-19 , SARS-CoV-2 , Humanos , COVID-19/epidemiologia , Incerteza , Teorema de Bayes , PandemiasRESUMO
When a drop impacts a surface, a dimple can be formed due to the increased air pressure beneath the drop before it wets the surface. We employ a high-speed color interferometry technique to measure the evolution of the air layer profiles under millimeter-sized drops impacting hydrophobic micropatterned surfaces for impact velocities of typically 0.4 m s(-1). We account for the impact phenomena and show the influence of the micropillar spacing and height on the air layer profiles. A decrease in pillar spacing increases the height of the air dimple below the impacting drop. Before complete wetting, when the impacting drop only wets the top of the pillars, the air-droplet interface deforms in between the pillars. For large pillar heights the deformation is larger, but the dimple height is hardly influenced.
RESUMO
The Ensembl project (http://www.ensembl.org) provides genome resources for chordate genomes with a particular focus on human genome data as well as data for key model organisms such as mouse, rat and zebrafish. Five additional species were added in the last year including gibbon (Nomascus leucogenys) and Tasmanian devil (Sarcophilus harrisii) bringing the total number of supported species to 61 as of Ensembl release 64 (September 2011). Of these, 55 species appear on the main Ensembl website and six species are provided on the Ensembl preview site (Pre!Ensembl; http://pre.ensembl.org) with preliminary support. The past year has also seen improvements across the project.
Assuntos
Bases de Dados Genéticas , Genômica , Animais , Regulação da Expressão Gênica , Variação Genética , Humanos , Camundongos , Anotação de Sequência Molecular , RatosRESUMO
The Ensembl project (http://www.ensembl.org) seeks to enable genomic science by providing high quality, integrated annotation on chordate and selected eukaryotic genomes within a consistent and accessible infrastructure. All supported species include comprehensive, evidence-based gene annotations and a selected set of genomes includes additional data focused on variation, comparative, evolutionary, functional and regulatory annotation. The most advanced resources are provided for key species including human, mouse, rat and zebrafish reflecting the popularity and importance of these species in biomedical research. As of Ensembl release 59 (August 2010), 56 species are supported of which 5 have been added in the past year. Since our previous report, we have substantially improved the presentation and integration of both data of disease relevance and the regulatory state of different cell types.
Assuntos
Bases de Dados Genéticas , Genômica , Animais , Variação Genética , Humanos , Camundongos , Anotação de Sequência Molecular , Ratos , Sequências Reguladoras de Ácido Nucleico , Software , Peixe-Zebra/genéticaRESUMO
The L-type calcium current ( I CaL ) plays a critical role in cardiac electrophysiology, and models of I CaL are vital tools to predict arrhythmogenicity of drugs and mutations. Five decades of measuring and modeling I CaL have resulted in several competing theories (encoded in mathematical equations). However, the introduction of new models has not typically been accompanied by a data-driven critical comparison with previous work, so that it is unclear which model is best suited for any particular application. In this review, we describe and compare 73 published mammalian I CaL models and use simulated experiments to show that there is a large variability in their predictions, which is not substantially diminished when grouping by species or other categories. We provide model code for 60 models, list major data sources, and discuss experimental and modeling work that will be required to reduce this huge list of competing theories and ultimately develop a community consensus model of I CaL . This article is categorized under: Cardiovascular Diseases > Computational Models Cardiovascular Diseases > Molecular and Cellular Physiology.
Assuntos
Doenças Cardiovasculares , Miócitos Cardíacos , Animais , Miócitos Cardíacos/fisiologia , Arritmias Cardíacas , Cálcio da Dieta , Mutação , MamíferosRESUMO
Collisions between millimeter-size bubbles in water against a glass plate are studied using high-speed video. Bubble trajectory and shape are tracked simultaneously with laser interferometry between the glass and bubble surfaces that monitors spatial-temporal evolution of the trapped water film. Initial bubble bounces and the final attachment of the bubble to the surface have been quantified. While the global Reynolds number is large (â¼10(2)), the film Reynolds number remains small and permits analysis with lubrication theory with tangentially immobile boundary condition at the air-water interface. Accurate predictions of dimple formation and subsequent film drainage are obtained.
RESUMO
Hundreds of different mathematical models have been proposed for describing electrophysiology of various cell types. These models are quite complex (nonlinear systems of typically tens of ODEs and sometimes hundreds of parameters) and software packages such as the Cancer, Heart and Soft Tissue Environment (Chaste) C++ library have been designed to run simulations with these models in isolation or coupled to form a tissue simulation. The complexity of many of these models makes sharing and translating them to new simulation environments difficult. CellML is an XML format that offers a widely-adopted solution to this problem. This paper specifically describes the capabilities of two new Python tools: the cellmlmanip library for reading and manipulating CellML models; and chaste_codegen, a CellML to C++ converter. These tools provide a Python 3 replacement for a previous Python 2 tool (called PyCML) and they also provide additional new features that this paper describes. Most notably, they can generate analytic Jacobians without the use of proprietary software, and also find singularities occurring in equations and automatically generate and apply linear approximations to prevent numerical problems at these points.
RESUMO
Hydroxychloroquine (HCQ), the hydroxyl derivative of chloroquine (CQ), is widely used in the treatment of rheumatological conditions (systemic lupus erythematosus, rheumatoid arthritis) and is being studied for the treatment and prevention of COVID-19. Here, we investigate through mathematical modelling the safety profile of HCQ, CQ and other QT-prolonging anti-infective agents to determine their risk categories for Torsade de Pointes (TdP) arrhythmia. We performed safety modelling with uncertainty quantification using a risk classifier based on the qNet torsade metric score, a measure of the net charge carried by major currents during the action potential under inhibition of multiple ion channels by a compound. Modelling results for HCQ at a maximum free therapeutic plasma concentration (free C max) of approximately 1.2 µM (malaria dosing) indicated it is most likely to be in the high-intermediate-risk category for TdP, whereas CQ at a free C max of approximately 0.7 µM was predicted to most likely lie in the intermediate-risk category. Combining HCQ with the antibacterial moxifloxacin or the anti-malarial halofantrine (HAL) increased the degree of human ventricular action potential duration prolongation at some or all concentrations investigated, and was predicted to increase risk compared to HCQ alone. The combination of HCQ/HAL was predicted to be the riskiest for the free C max values investigated, whereas azithromycin administered individually was predicted to pose the lowest risk. Our simulation approach highlights that the torsadogenic potentials of HCQ, CQ and other QT-prolonging anti-infectives used in COVID-19 prevention and treatment increase with concentration and in combination with other QT-prolonging drugs.
RESUMO
Chaste (Cancer, Heart And Soft Tissue Environment) is an open source simulation package for the numerical solution of mathematical models arising in physiology and biology. To date, Chaste development has been driven primarily by applications that include continuum modelling of cardiac electrophysiology ('Cardiac Chaste'), discrete cell-based modelling of soft tissues ('Cell-based Chaste'), and modelling of ventilation in lungs ('Lung Chaste'). Cardiac Chaste addresses the need for a high-performance, generic, and verified simulation framework for cardiac electrophysiology that is freely available to the scientific community. Cardiac chaste provides a software package capable of realistic heart simulations that is efficient, rigorously tested, and runs on HPC platforms. Cell-based Chaste addresses the need for efficient and verified implementations of cell-based modelling frameworks, providing a set of extensible tools for simulating biological tissues. Computational modelling, along with live imaging techniques, plays an important role in understanding the processes of tissue growth and repair. A wide range of cell-based modelling frameworks have been developed that have each been successfully applied in a range of biological applications. Cell-based Chaste includes implementations of the cellular automaton model, the cellular Potts model, cell-centre models with cell representations as overlapping spheres or Voronoi tessellations, and the vertex model. Lung Chaste addresses the need for a novel, generic and efficient lung modelling software package that is both tested and verified. It aims to couple biophysically-detailed models of airway mechanics with organ-scale ventilation models in a package that is freely available to the scientific community. Chaste is designed to be modular and extensible, providing libraries for common scientific computing infrastructure such as linear algebra operations, finite element meshes, and ordinary and partial differential equation solvers. This infrastructure is used by libraries for specific applications, such as continuum mechanics, cardiac models, and cell-based models. The software engineering techniques used to develop Chaste are intended to ensure code quality, re-usability and reliability. Primary applications of the software include cardiac and respiratory physiology, cancer and developmental biology.