Producing personalized statin treatment plans to optimize clinical outcomes using big data and machine learning.

Almost half of Americans 65 years of age and older take statins, which are highly effective in lowering low-density lipoprotein cholesterol, preventing atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD), and reducing all-cause mortality. Unfortunately, ∼50% of patients prescribed statins do not obtain these critical benefits because they discontinue use within one year of treatment initiation. Therefore, statin discontinuation has been identified as a major public health concern due to the increased morbidity, mortality, and healthcare costs associated with ASCVD. In clinical practice, statin-associated symptoms (SAS) often result in dose reduction or discontinuation of these life-saving medications. Currently, physician decision-making in statin prescribing typically relies on only a few patient data elements. Physicians then employ reactive strategies to manage SAS concerns after they manifest (e.g., offering an alternative statin treatment plan or a statin holiday). A preferred approach would be a proactive strategy to identify the optimal treatment plan (statin agent + dosage) to prevent/minimize SAS and statin discontinuation risks for a particular individual prior to initiating treatment. Given that using a single patient's data to identify the optimal statin regimen is inadequate to ensure that the harms of statin use are minimized, alternative tactics must be used to address this problem. In this proof-of-concept study, we explore the use of a machine-learning personalized statin treatment plan (PSTP) platform to assess the numerous statin treatment plans available and identify the optimal treatment plan to prevent/minimize harms (SAS and statin discontinuation) for an individual. Our study leveraged de-identified administrative insurance claims data from the OptumLabs® Data Warehouse, which includes medical and pharmacy claims, laboratory results, and enrollment records for more than 130 million commercial and Medicare Advantage (MA) enrollees, to successfully develop the PSTP platform. In this study, we found three results: (1) the PSTP platform recommends statin prescription with significantly lower risks of SAS and discontinuation compared with standard-practice, (2) because machine learning can consider many more dimensions of data, the performance of the proactive prescription strategy with machine-learning support is better, especially the artificial neural network approach, and (3) we demonstrate a method of incorporating optimization constraints for individualized patient-centered medicine and shared decision making. However, more research into its clinical use is needed. These promising results show the feasibility of using machine learning and big data approaches to produce personalized healthcare treatment plans and support the precision-health agenda.

Self-controlled assessment of thromboembolic event (TEE) risk following intravenous immune globulin (IGIV) in the U.S. (2006-2012).

Since 2013, the U.S. Food and Drug administration (FDA) has required that intravenous immune globulin (IGIV) products carry a boxed warning concerning the risk of thromboembolic events (TEEs). This study assessed the incidence of TEEs attributable to IGIV in a large population-based cohort. A self-controlled risk interval design was used to quantify the transient increase in TEE risk during the risk interval (days 0-2 and 0-13 following IGIV for arterial and venous TEEs, respectively) relative to a later control interval (days 14-27 following IGIV). Potential IGIV-exposed TEE cases from 2006 to 2012 were identified from the FDA-sponsored Sentinel Distributed Database and confirmed through medical record review. Inpatient IGIV exposures were not included in the venous TEE analysis due to concerns about time-varying confounding. 19,069 new users of IGIV who received 93,555 treatment episodes were included. Charts were retrieved for 62% and 70% of potential venous and arterial cases, respectively. There was a transient increase in the risk of arterial TEEs during days 0-2 following IGIV treatment (RR = 4.69; 95% CI 1.87, 11.90; absolute increase in risk = 8.86 events per 10,000 patients, 95% CI 3.25, 14.6), but no significant increase in venous TEE risk during days 0-13 following outpatient IGIV treatments (RR = 1.07, 95% CI 0.34, 3.48). Our results suggest there is a small increase in the absolute risk of arterial TEEs following IGIV. However, lower-than-expected chart retrieval rates and the possibility of time-varying confounding mean that our results should be interpreted cautiously. Continued pharmacovigilance efforts are warranted.

Omega-3 Fatty Acids for the Management of Hypertriglyceridemia: A Science Advisory From the American Heart Association.

Hypertriglyceridemia (triglycerides 200-499 mg/dL) is relatively common in the United States, whereas more severe triglyceride elevations (very high triglycerides, ≥500 mg/dL) are far less frequently observed. Both are becoming increasingly prevalent in the United States and elsewhere, likely driven in large part by growing rates of obesity and diabetes mellitus. In a 2002 American Heart Association scientific statement, the omega-3 fatty acids (n-3 FAs) eicosapentaenoic acid (EPA) and docosahexaenoic acid (DHA) were recommended (at a dose of 2-4 g/d) for reducing triglycerides in patients with elevated triglycerides. Since 2002, prescription agents containing EPA+DHA or EPA alone have been approved by the US Food and Drug Administration for treating very high triglycerides; these agents are also widely used for hypertriglyceridemia. The purpose of this advisory is to summarize the lipid and lipoprotein effects resulting from pharmacological doses of n-3 FAs (>3 g/d total EPA+DHA) on the basis of new scientific data and availability of n-3 FA agents. In treatment of very high triglycerides with 4 g/d, EPA+DHA agents reduce triglycerides by ≥30% with concurrent increases in low-density lipoprotein cholesterol, whereas EPA-only did not raise low-density lipoprotein cholesterol in very high triglycerides. When used to treat hypertriglyceridemia, n-3 FAs with EPA+DHA or with EPA-only appear roughly comparable for triglyceride lowering and do not increase low-density lipoprotein cholesterol when used as monotherapy or in combination with a statin. In the largest trials of 4 g/d prescription n-3 FA, non-high-density lipoprotein cholesterol and apolipoprotein B were modestly decreased, indicating reductions in total atherogenic lipoproteins. The use of n-3 FA (4 g/d) for improving atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease risk in patients with hypertriglyceridemia is supported by a 25% reduction in major adverse cardiovascular events in REDUCE-IT (Reduction of Cardiovascular Events With EPA Intervention Trial), a randomized placebo-controlled trial of EPA-only in high-risk patients treated with a statin. The results of a trial of 4 g/d prescription EPA+DHA in hypertriglyceridemia are anticipated in 2020. We conclude that prescription n-3 FAs (EPA+DHA or EPA-only) at a dose of 4 g/d (>3 g/d total EPA+DHA) are an effective and safe option for reducing triglycerides as monotherapy or as an adjunct to other lipid-lowering agents.

Fatty acids in the de novo lipogenesis pathway and incidence of type 2 diabetes: A pooled analysis of prospective cohort studies.

BACKGROUND: De novo lipogenesis (DNL) is the primary metabolic pathway synthesizing fatty acids from carbohydrates, protein, or alcohol. Our aim was to examine associations of in vivo levels of selected fatty acids (16:0, 16:1n7, 18:0, 18:1n9) in DNL with incidence of type 2 diabetes (T2D). METHODS AND FINDINGS: Seventeen cohorts from 12 countries (7 from Europe, 7 from the United States, 1 from Australia, 1 from Taiwan; baseline years = 1970-1973 to 2006-2010) conducted harmonized individual-level analyses of associations of DNL-related fatty acids with incident T2D. In total, we evaluated 65,225 participants (mean ages = 52.3-75.5 years; % women = 20.4%-62.3% in 12 cohorts recruiting both sexes) and 15,383 incident cases of T2D over the 9-year follow-up on average. Cohort-specific association of each of 16:0, 16:1n7, 18:0, and 18:1n9 with incident T2D was estimated, adjusted for demographic factors, socioeconomic characteristics, alcohol, smoking, physical activity, dyslipidemia, hypertension, menopausal status, and adiposity. Cohort-specific associations were meta-analyzed with an inverse-variance-weighted approach. Each of the 4 fatty acids positively related to incident T2D. Relative risks (RRs) per cohort-specific range between midpoints of the top and bottom quintiles of fatty acid concentrations were 1.53 (1.41-1.66; p < 0.001) for 16:0, 1.40 (1.33-1.48; p < 0.001) for 16:1n-7, 1.14 (1.05-1.22; p = 0.001) for 18:0, and 1.16 (1.07-1.25; p < 0.001) for 18:1n9. Heterogeneity was seen across cohorts (I2 = 51.1%-73.1% for each fatty acid) but not explained by lipid fractions and global geographical regions. Further adjusted for triglycerides (and 16:0 when appropriate) to evaluate associations independent of overall DNL, the associations remained significant for 16:0, 16:1n7, and 18:0 but were attenuated for 18:1n9 (RR = 1.03, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 0.94-1.13). These findings had limitations in potential reverse causation and residual confounding by imprecisely measured or unmeasured factors. CONCLUSIONS: Concentrations of fatty acids in the DNL were positively associated with T2D incidence. Our findings support further work to investigate a possible role of DNL and individual fatty acids in the development of T2D.

Cognitive Function in a Randomized Trial of Evolocumab.

Background Findings from clinical trials of proprotein convertase subtilisin-kexin type 9 (PCSK9) inhibitors have led to concern that these drugs or the low levels of low-density lipoprotein (LDL) cholesterol that result from their use are associated with cognitive deficits. Methods In a subgroup of patients from a randomized, placebo-controlled trial of evolocumab added to statin therapy, we prospectively assessed cognitive function using the Cambridge Neuropsychological Test Automated Battery. The primary end point was the score on the spatial working memory strategy index of executive function (scores range from 4 to 28, with lower scores indicating a more efficient use of strategy and planning). Secondary end points were the scores for working memory (scores range from 0 to 279, with lower scores indicating fewer errors), episodic memory (scores range from 0 to 70, with lower scores indicating fewer errors), and psychomotor speed (scores range from 100 to 5100 msec, with faster times representing better performance). Assessments of cognitive function were performed at baseline, week 24, yearly, and at the end of the trial. The primary analysis was a noninferiority comparison of the mean change from baseline in the score on the spatial working memory strategy index of executive function between the patients who received evolocumab and those who received placebo; the noninferiority margin was set at 20% of the standard deviation of the score in the placebo group. Results A total of 1204 patients were followed for a median of 19 months; the mean (±SD) change from baseline over time in the raw score for the spatial working memory strategy index of executive function (primary end point) was -0.21±2.62 in the evolocumab group and -0.29±2.81 in the placebo group (P<0.001 for noninferiority; P=0.85 for superiority). There were no significant between-group differences in the secondary end points of scores for working memory (change in raw score, -0.52 in the evolocumab group and -0.93 in the placebo group), episodic memory (change in raw score, -1.53 and -1.53, respectively), or psychomotor speed (change in raw score, 5.2 msec and 0.9 msec, respectively). In an exploratory analysis, there were no associations between LDL cholesterol levels and cognitive changes. Conclusions In a randomized trial involving patients who received either evolocumab or placebo in addition to statin therapy, no significant between-group difference in cognitive function was observed over a median of 19 months. (Funded by Amgen; EBBINGHAUS ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT02207634 .).

Beliefs, risk perceptions, and lipid management among patients with and without diabetes: Results from the PALM registry.

Intensive lipid management is critical to reduce cardiovascular (CV) risk for patients with diabetes mellitus (DM). METHODS: We performed an observational study of 7628 patients with (n = 2943) and without DM (n = 4685), enrolled in the Provider Assessment of Lipid Management (PALM) registry and treated at 140 outpatient clinics across the United States in 2015. Patient self-estimated CV risk, patient-perceived statin benefit and risk, observed statin therapy use and dosing were assessed. RESULTS: Patients with DM were more likely to believe that their CV risk was elevated compared with patients without DM (39.1% vs 29.3%, P < .001). Patients with DM were more likely to receive a statin (74.2% vs 63.5%, P < .001) but less likely to be treated with guideline-recommended statin intensity (36.5% vs 46.9%, P < .001), driven by the low proportion (16.5%) of high risk (ASCVD risk ≥7.5%) primary prevention DM patients treated with a high intensity statin. Patients with DM treated with guideline-recommended statin intensity were more likely to believe they were at high CV risk (44.9% vs 38.4%, P = .005) and that statins can reduce this risk (41.1% vs 35.6%, P = .02), compared with patients treated with lower than guideline-recommended statin intensity. Compared with patients with an elevated HgbA1c, patients with well-controlled DM were no more likely to be on a statin (77.9% vs 79.3%, P = .43). CONCLUSIONS: In this nationwide study, the majority of patients with DM were treated with lower than guideline-recommended statin intensity. Patient education and engagement may help providers improve lipid therapy for these high-risk patients.

Can atherosclerosis be cured?

PURPOSE OF REVIEW: Determine if evidence supports interventions to prevent development of atherosclerosis and atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) events and death. RECENT FINDINGS: An extensive body of evidence supports the fundamental causal role of apolipoprotein B lipoproteins in the development of atherosclerosis. Recent epidemiologic studies have shown that LDL-cholesterol (LDL-C) and non-HDL-cholesterol levels in early adults are associated with accelerated subclinical atherosclerosis and an excess of atherosclerotic cardiovascular events later in life. Animal and human data have shown that intensive LDL-C lowering can regress earlier stages of atherosclerosis. SUMMARY: The next research priority is evaluating the impact of lowering LDL-C earlier in life to regress early atherosclerosis, followed by trials to demonstrate this approach will eradicate later-life ASCVD events and death. This approach of curing atherosclerosis will likely be the most effective strategy for reducing the huge global burden of atherosclerosis.

Variation in PCSK9 and HMGCR and Risk of Cardiovascular Disease and Diabetes.

BACKGROUND: Pharmacologic inhibitors of proprotein convertase subtilisin-kexin type 9 (PCSK9) are being evaluated in clinical trials for the treatment of cardiovascular disease. The effect of lowering low-density lipoprotein (LDL) cholesterol levels by inhibiting PCSK9 on the risk of cardiovascular events or diabetes is unknown. METHODS: We used genetic scores consisting of independently inherited variants in the genes encoding PCSK9 and 3-hydroxy-3-methylglutaryl-coenzyme A reductase (HMGCR; the target of statins) as instruments to randomly assign 112,772 participants from 14 studies, with 14,120 cardiovascular events and 10,635 cases of diabetes, to groups according to the number of LDL cholesterol-lowering alleles that they had inherited. We compared the effects of lower LDL cholesterol levels that were mediated by variants in PCSK9, HMGCR, or both on the risk of cardiovascular events and the risk of diabetes. RESULTS: Variants in PCSK9 and HMGCR were associated with nearly identical protective effects on the risk of cardiovascular events per decrease of 10 mg per deciliter (0.26 mmol per liter) in the LDL cholesterol level: odds ratio for cardiovascular events, 0.81 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.74 to 0.89) for PCSK9 and 0.81 (95% CI, 0.72 to 0.90) for HMGCR. Variants in these two genes were also associated with very similar effects on the risk of diabetes: odds ratio for each 10 mg per deciliter decrease in LDL cholesterol, 1.11 (95% CI, 1.04 to 1.19) for PCSK9 and 1.13 (95% CI, 1.06 to 1.20) for HMGCR. The increased risk of diabetes was limited to persons with impaired fasting glucose levels for both scores and was lower in magnitude than the protective effect against cardiovascular events. When present together, PCSK9 and HMGCR variants had additive effects on the risk of both cardiovascular events and diabetes. CONCLUSIONS: In this study, variants in PCSK9 had approximately the same effect as variants in HMGCR on the risk of cardiovascular events and diabetes per unit decrease in the LDL cholesterol level. The effects of these variants were independent and additive. (Funded by the Medical Research Council and the National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute.).

Practice-level variation in statin use and low-density lipoprotein cholesterol control in the United States: Results from the Patient and Provider Assessment of Lipid Management (PALM) registry.

BACKGROUND: Adherence to guideline-recommended statin recommendations in the United States is suboptimal. Patients' likelihood to be treated according to guidelines may vary by the practice in which they are treated. METHODS: Variation in the use of statin therapy in 5445 patients, with known or at high risk for atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) and meeting a statin treatment indication, was examined across 74 US Patient and Provider Assessment of Lipid Management (PALM) Registry clinics. Multivariable generalized linear mixed modeling was used to determine the median odds ratio (MOR) for statin use and 2013 American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association guideline-recommended statin intensity by practice. MOR quantifies between-practice variation by comparing the odds of receiving guideline-recommended statin treatment in a patient from a randomly selected practice with a similar patient from another random practice. Risk-adjusted low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) control (<100 and <70 mg/dL) was compared among practice tertiles based on percentage of eligible patients receiving recommended statin intensity. RESULTS: Among 74 practices (43.2% cardiology) comprised of 300 healthcare providers enrolling 5445 patients (56.2% with ASCVD), statin use at the guideline-recommended intensity at practices varied widely (12.7-71.4%; adjusted MOR 1.45, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.35-1.64). Results were consistent when evaluated for any statin use overall (adjusted MOR 1.75, 95% CI 1.48-1.99) and when stratified by primary versus secondary prevention patients. Relative to practices with lowest or mid-tertile statin use of statins, highest tertile clinics were more frequently cardiology practices (68.0% vs 48.0% vs 12.5%, P < .001). Compared with lowest tertile clinics, patients at highest tertile clinics were more likely to achieve LDL-C <70 mg/dL (adjusted odds ratio [OR] 1.49, 95% CI 1.08-2.04) and <100 mg/dL (adjusted OR 1.78, 95% CI 1.41-2.25). CONCLUSIONS: US clinics varied widely in their adherence to guideline recommendations for statin therapy, which contributed to significant differences in LDL-C levels.

The extent to which statins have improved cardiovascular outcomes: Lessons from randomized trials and observational studies of "real world" practice in people with diabetes.

Statins are the mainstay of therapy for cardiovascular risk reduction in patients with diabetes mellitus. It is estimated that there are more than half a billion patients with diabetes mellitus worldwide and the numbers of prevalent cases of diabetes are expected to increase in both developed and developing countries in the next decade. Statins reduce risk of mortality and morbidity mainly by reducing blood low density cholesterol. Statins, along with other medical treatments, are responsible for about half of the decrease in cardiovascular mortality over the past several decades. Multiple clinical trials have found evidence for statin use in patients with diabetes, for both primary prevention and secondary prevention. The benefit of statins in patients with coronary heart disease and diabetes in terms of absolute risk reduction is twice as much as compared to the risk in patients with coronary heart disease but no diabetes. The proportion of patients with diabetes treated with statins has increased steadily over the past few decades with concurrent decrease in cardiovascular deaths in this high-risk population. However, there are significant unmet needs in cardiovascular risk reduction, due to underutilization of statins and due to residual cardiovascular risk despite maximal statin therapy. Future strategies in population risk reduction in diabetics should include maximal statin therapy, additional treatment with nonstatin therapy and new paradigms of prevention with early intervention with shorter, more intensive therapy to potentially "reverse" atherosclerosis with goals of reducing clinical cardiovascular disease later in life.

Dietary Fats and Cardiovascular Disease: A Presidential Advisory From the American Heart Association.

Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is the leading global cause of death, accounting for 17.3 million deaths per year. Preventive treatment that reduces CVD by even a small percentage can substantially reduce, nationally and globally, the number of people who develop CVD and the costs of caring for them. This American Heart Association presidential advisory on dietary fats and CVD reviews and discusses the scientific evidence, including the most recent studies, on the effects of dietary saturated fat intake and its replacement by other types of fats and carbohydrates on CVD. In summary, randomized controlled trials that lowered intake of dietary saturated fat and replaced it with polyunsaturated vegetable oil reduced CVD by ≈30%, similar to the reduction achieved by statin treatment. Prospective observational studies in many populations showed that lower intake of saturated fat coupled with higher intake of polyunsaturated and monounsaturated fat is associated with lower rates of CVD and of other major causes of death and all-cause mortality. In contrast, replacement of saturated fat with mostly refined carbohydrates and sugars is not associated with lower rates of CVD and did not reduce CVD in clinical trials. Replacement of saturated with unsaturated fats lowers low-density lipoprotein cholesterol, a cause of atherosclerosis, linking biological evidence with incidence of CVD in populations and in clinical trials. Taking into consideration the totality of the scientific evidence, satisfying rigorous criteria for causality, we conclude strongly that lowering intake of saturated fat and replacing it with unsaturated fats, especially polyunsaturated fats, will lower the incidence of CVD. This recommended shift from saturated to unsaturated fats should occur simultaneously in an overall healthful dietary pattern such as DASH (Dietary Approaches to Stop Hypertension) or the Mediterranean diet as emphasized by the 2013 American Heart Association/American College of Cardiology lifestyle guidelines and the 2015 to 2020 Dietary Guidelines for Americans.

Fatty acid biomarkers of dairy fat consumption and incidence of type 2 diabetes: A pooled analysis of prospective cohort studies.

BACKGROUND: We aimed to investigate prospective associations of circulating or adipose tissue odd-chain fatty acids 15:0 and 17:0 and trans-palmitoleic acid, t16:1n-7, as potential biomarkers of dairy fat intake, with incident type 2 diabetes (T2D). METHODS AND FINDINGS: Sixteen prospective cohorts from 12 countries (7 from the United States, 7 from Europe, 1 from Australia, 1 from Taiwan) performed new harmonised individual-level analysis for the prospective associations according to a standardised plan. In total, 63,682 participants with a broad range of baseline ages and BMIs and 15,180 incident cases of T2D over the average of 9 years of follow-up were evaluated. Study-specific results were pooled using inverse-variance-weighted meta-analysis. Prespecified interactions by age, sex, BMI, and race/ethnicity were explored in each cohort and were meta-analysed. Potential heterogeneity by cohort-specific characteristics (regions, lipid compartments used for fatty acid assays) was assessed with metaregression. After adjustment for potential confounders, including measures of adiposity (BMI, waist circumference) and lipogenesis (levels of palmitate, triglycerides), higher levels of 15:0, 17:0, and t16:1n-7 were associated with lower incidence of T2D. In the most adjusted model, the hazard ratio (95% CI) for incident T2D per cohort-specific 10th to 90th percentile range of 15:0 was 0.80 (0.73-0.87); of 17:0, 0.65 (0.59-0.72); of t16:1n7, 0.82 (0.70-0.96); and of their sum, 0.71 (0.63-0.79). In exploratory analyses, similar associations for 15:0, 17:0, and the sum of all three fatty acids were present in both genders but stronger in women than in men (pinteraction < 0.001). Whereas studying associations with biomarkers has several advantages, as limitations, the biomarkers do not distinguish between different food sources of dairy fat (e.g., cheese, yogurt, milk), and residual confounding by unmeasured or imprecisely measured confounders may exist. CONCLUSIONS: In a large meta-analysis that pooled the findings from 16 prospective cohort studies, higher levels of 15:0, 17:0, and t16:1n-7 were associated with a lower risk of T2D.

Efficacy and safety of alirocumab in reducing lipids and cardiovascular events.

BACKGROUND: Alirocumab, a monoclonal antibody that inhibits proprotein convertase subtilisin-kexin type 9 (PCSK9), has been shown to reduce low-density lipoprotein (LDL) cholesterol levels in patients who are receiving statin therapy. Larger and longer-term studies are needed to establish safety and efficacy. METHODS: We conducted a randomized trial involving 2341 patients at high risk for cardiovascular events who had LDL cholesterol levels of 70 mg per deciliter (1.8 mmol per liter) or more and were receiving treatment with statins at the maximum tolerated dose (the highest dose associated with an acceptable side-effect profile), with or without other lipid-lowering therapy. Patients were randomly assigned in a 2:1 ratio to receive alirocumab (150 mg) or placebo as a 1-ml subcutaneous injection every 2 weeks for 78 weeks. The primary efficacy end point was the percentage change in calculated LDL cholesterol level from baseline to week 24. RESULTS: At week 24, the difference between the alirocumab and placebo groups in the mean percentage change from baseline in calculated LDL cholesterol level was -62 percentage points (P<0.001); the treatment effect remained consistent over a period of 78 weeks. The alirocumab group, as compared with the placebo group, had higher rates of injection-site reactions (5.9% vs. 4.2%), myalgia (5.4% vs. 2.9%), neurocognitive events (1.2% vs. 0.5%), and ophthalmologic events (2.9% vs. 1.9%). In a post hoc analysis, the rate of major adverse cardiovascular events (death from coronary heart disease, nonfatal myocardial infarction, fatal or nonfatal ischemic stroke, or unstable angina requiring hospitalization) was lower with alirocumab than with placebo (1.7% vs. 3.3%; hazard ratio, 0.52; 95% confidence interval, 0.31 to 0.90; nominal P=0.02). CONCLUSIONS: Over a period of 78 weeks, alirocumab, when added to statin therapy at the maximum tolerated dose, significantly reduced LDL cholesterol levels. In a post hoc analysis, there was evidence of a reduction in the rate of cardiovascular events with alirocumab. (Funded by Sanofi and Regeneron Pharmaceuticals; ODYSSEY LONG TERM ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT01507831.).

Identifying Patients for Nonstatin Therapy.

Statins are first-line therapy for reducing atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) risk. Some patients remain at high ASCVD risk despite maximizing statin therapy. Ezetimibe and proprotein convertase subtilisin/kexin type 9 (PCSK9) monoclonal antibodies (mAbs) have been shown to reduce ASCVD events in randomized trials and may be of benefit in selected high-risk patients with cardiovascular disease (CVD) or familial hypercholesterolemia (FH). Number-needed-to-treat (NNT) to prevent one ASCVD event can help identify groups of patients who may gain a net benefit from added nonstatin therapy. Patient groups with NNTs <25 (in whom PCSK9 mAbs may approach cost effectiveness with discounting) include extremely high-risk patients (those with CVD with FH, polyvascular disease, or recurrent ASCVD events) with lowdensity lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) levels ≥70 mg/dL, very high-risk patients (those with CVD with diabetes [and no polyvascular disease], chronic kidney disease, or acute coronary syndromes, or CVD or FH with poorly controlled risk factors) with LDL-C levels ≥100 mg/dL, and high-risk patients (those with CVD or FH with well-controlled risk factors) with LDL-C ≥130 mg/dL. Ezetimibe, which is generic in the United States, is reasonable for patient groups with NNTs <30, the level considered reasonable by most patients. This includes extremely high-risk patients with LDL-C levels ≥130 mg/dL, or very high-risk patients with LDL-C ≥190 mg/dL. All guidelines recommend statin therapy for the prevention of ASCVD.

Can We Cure Atherosclerosis?

Cardiovascular disease mortality rates have begun to rise in the United States. Based on the large body of supportive evidence, we propose a proof-of-concept, first-in-human trial to cure atherosclerosis: CURing Early ATHEROsclerosis (CURE ATHERO). This trial is based on a model of intensive induction therapy for extensive, if not complete, plaque regression, followed by intermittent maintenance therapy. An extensive body of evidence has demonstrated the causal role of apolipoprotein B lipoproteins in atherosclerosis progression and data suggest intensive low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) lowering may have a substantial impact on earlier stages of atherosclerosis. Compared with lifetime treatment to prevent atherosclerosis progression, this induction-intermittent treatment model will minimize costs and maximize adherence and safety.

Chart validation of inpatient ICD-9-CM administrative diagnosis codes for acute myocardial infarction (AMI) among intravenous immune globulin (IGIV) users in the Sentinel Distributed Database.

BACKGROUND: The Sentinel Distributed Database (SDD) is a large database of patient-level administrative health care records, primarily derived from insurance claims and electronic health records, and is sponsored by the US Food and Drug Administration for medical product safety evaluations. Acute myocardial infarction (AMI) is a common study endpoint for drug safety studies that rely on health records from the SDD and other administrative databases. PURPOSE: In this chart validation study, we report on the positive predictive value (PPV) of inpatient International Classification of Diseases, Ninth Revision, Clinical Modification AMI administrative diagnosis codes (410.x1 and 410.x0) in the SDD. METHODS: As part of an assessment of thromboembolic adverse event risk following treatment with intravenous immune globulin, charts were obtained for 103 potential post-intravenous immune globulin AMI cases. Charts were abstracted by trained nurses and physician-adjudicated based on prespecified diagnostic criteria. RESULTS: Acute myocardial infarction status could be determined for 89 potential cases. The PPVs for the inpatient AMI diagnoses recorded in the SDD were 75% overall (95% CI, 65-84%), 93% (95% CI, 78-99%) for principal-position diagnoses, 88% (95% CI, 72-97%) for secondary diagnoses, and 38% (95% CI, 20-59%) for position-unspecified diagnoses (eg, diagnoses originating from separate physician claims associated with an inpatient stay). Of the confirmed AMI cases, demand ischemia was the suspected etiology more often for those coded in secondary or unspecified positions (72% and 40%, respectively) than for principal-position AMI diagnoses (21%). CONCLUSIONS: The PPVs for principal and secondary AMI diagnoses were high and similar to estimates from prior chart validation studies. Position-unspecified diagnosis codes were less likely to represent true AMI cases.

Association Between Baseline LDL-C Level and Total and Cardiovascular Mortality After LDL-C Lowering: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis.

Importance: Effects on specific fatal and nonfatal end points appear to vary for low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C)-lowering drug trials. Objective: To evaluate whether baseline LDL-C level is associated with total and cardiovascular mortality risk reductions. Data Sourcesand Study Selection: Electronic databases (Cochrane, MEDLINE, EMBASE, TCTMD, ClinicalTrials.gov, major congress proceedings) were searched through February 2, 2018, to identify randomized clinical trials of statins, ezetimibe, and PCSK9-inhibiting monoclonal antibodies. Data Extraction and Synthesis: Two investigators abstracted data and appraised risks of bias. Intervention groups were categorized as "more intensive" (more potent pharmacologic intervention) or "less intensive" (less potent, placebo, or control group). Main Outcomes and Measures: The coprimary end points were total mortality and cardiovascular mortality. Random-effects meta-regression and meta-analyses evaluated associations between baseline LDL-C level and reductions in mortality end points and secondary end points including major adverse cardiac events (MACE). Results: In 34 trials, 136 299 patients received more intensive and 133 989 received less intensive LDL-C lowering. All-cause mortality was lower for more vs less intensive therapy (7.08% vs 7.70%; rate ratio [RR], 0.92 [95% CI, 0.88 to 0.96]), but varied by baseline LDL-C level. Meta-regression showed more intensive LDL-C lowering was associated with greater reductions in all-cause mortality with higher baseline LDL-C levels (change in RRs per 40-mg/dL increase in baseline LDL-C, 0.91 [95% CI, 0.86 to 0.96]; P = .001; absolute risk difference [ARD], -1.05 incident cases per 1000 person-years [95% CI, -1.59 to -0.51]), but only when baseline LDL-C levels were 100 mg/dL or greater (P < .001 for interaction) in a meta-analysis. Cardiovascular mortality was lower for more vs less intensive therapy (3.48% vs 4.07%; RR, 0.84 [95% CI, 0.79 to 0.89]) but varied by baseline LDL-C level. Meta-regression showed more intensive LDL-C lowering was associated with a greater reduction in cardiovascular mortality with higher baseline LDL-C levels (change in RRs per 40-mg/dL increase in baseline LDL-C, 0.86 [95% CI, 0.80 to 0.94]; P < .001; ARD, -1.0 incident cases per 1000 person-years [95% CI, -1.51 to -0.45]), but only when baseline LDL-C levels were 100 mg/dL or greater (P < .001 for interaction) in a meta-analysis. Trials with baseline LDL-C levels of 160 mg/dL or greater had the greatest reduction in all-cause mortality (RR, 0.72 [95% CI, 0.62 to 0.84]; P < .001; 4.3 fewer deaths per 1000 person-years) in a meta-analysis. More intensive LDL-C lowering was also associated with progressively greater risk reductions with higher baseline LDL-C level for myocardial infarction, revascularization, and MACE. Conclusions and Relevance: In these meta-analyses and meta-regressions, more intensive compared with less intensive LDL-C lowering was associated with a greater reduction in risk of total and cardiovascular mortality in trials of patients with higher baseline LDL-C levels. This association was not present when baseline LDL-C level was less than 100 mg/dL, suggesting that the greatest benefit from LDL-C-lowering therapy may occur for patients with higher baseline LDL-C levels.

Evidence-Based Policy Making: Assessment of the American Heart Association's Strategic Policy Portfolio: A Policy Statement From the American Heart Association.

BACKGROUND: American Heart Association (AHA) public policy advocacy strategies are based on its Strategic Impact Goals. The writing group appraised the evidence behind AHA's policies to determine how well they address the association's 2020 cardiovascular health (CVH) metrics and cardiovascular disease (CVD) management indicators and identified research needed to fill gaps in policy and support further policy development. METHODS AND RESULTS: The AHA policy research department first identified current AHA policies specific to each CVH metric and CVD management indicator and the evidence underlying each policy. Writing group members then reviewed each policy and the related metrics and indicators. The results of each review were summarized, and topic-specific priorities and overarching themes for future policy research were proposed. There was generally close alignment between current AHA policies and the 2020 CVH metrics and CVD management indicators; however, certain specific policies still lack a robust evidence base. For CVH metrics, the distinction between policies for adults (age ≥20 years) and children (<20 years) was often not considered, although policy approaches may differ importantly by age. Inclusion of all those <20 years of age as a single group also ignores important differences in policy needs for infants, children, adolescents, and young adults. For CVD management indicators, specific quantitative targets analogous to criteria for ideal, intermediate, and poor CVH are lacking but needed to assess progress toward the 2020 goal to reduce deaths from CVDs and stroke. New research in support of current policies needs to focus on the evaluation of their translation and implementation through expanded application of implementation science. Focused basic, clinical, and population research is required to expand and strengthen the evidence base for the development of new policies. Evaluation of the impact of targeted improvements in population health through strengthened surveillance of CVD and stroke events, determination of the cost-effectiveness of policy interventions, and measurement of the extent to which vulnerable populations are reached must be assessed for all policies. Additional attention should be paid to the social determinants of health outcomes. CONCLUSIONS: AHA's public policies are generally robust and well aligned with its 2020 CVH metrics and CVD indicators. Areas for further policy development to fill gaps, overarching research strategies, and topic-specific priority areas are proposed.

Association of low-frequency and rare coding-sequence variants with blood lipids and coronary heart disease in 56,000 whites and blacks.

Low-frequency coding DNA sequence variants in the proprotein convertase subtilisin/kexin type 9 gene (PCSK9) lower plasma low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C), protect against risk of coronary heart disease (CHD), and have prompted the development of a new class of therapeutics. It is uncertain whether the PCSK9 example represents a paradigm or an isolated exception. We used the "Exome Array" to genotype >200,000 low-frequency and rare coding sequence variants across the genome in 56,538 individuals (42,208 European ancestry [EA] and 14,330 African ancestry [AA]) and tested these variants for association with LDL-C, high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C), and triglycerides. Although we did not identify new genes associated with LDL-C, we did identify four low-frequency (frequencies between 0.1% and 2%) variants (ANGPTL8 rs145464906 [c.361C>T; p.Gln121*], PAFAH1B2 rs186808413 [c.482C>T; p.Ser161Leu], COL18A1 rs114139997 [c.331G>A; p.Gly111Arg], and PCSK7 rs142953140 [c.1511G>A; p.Arg504His]) with large effects on HDL-C and/or triglycerides. None of these four variants was associated with risk for CHD, suggesting that examples of low-frequency coding variants with robust effects on both lipids and CHD will be limited.

Whole-exome sequencing identifies rare and low-frequency coding variants associated with LDL cholesterol.

Elevated low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) is a treatable, heritable risk factor for cardiovascular disease. Genome-wide association studies (GWASs) have identified 157 variants associated with lipid levels but are not well suited to assess the impact of rare and low-frequency variants. To determine whether rare or low-frequency coding variants are associated with LDL-C, we exome sequenced 2,005 individuals, including 554 individuals selected for extreme LDL-C (>98(th) or <2(nd) percentile). Follow-up analyses included sequencing of 1,302 additional individuals and genotype-based analysis of 52,221 individuals. We observed significant evidence of association between LDL-C and the burden of rare or low-frequency variants in PNPLA5, encoding a phospholipase-domain-containing protein, and both known and previously unidentified variants in PCSK9, LDLR and APOB, three known lipid-related genes. The effect sizes for the burden of rare variants for each associated gene were substantially higher than those observed for individual SNPs identified from GWASs. We replicated the PNPLA5 signal in an independent large-scale sequencing study of 2,084 individuals. In conclusion, this large whole-exome-sequencing study for LDL-C identified a gene not known to be implicated in LDL-C and provides unique insight into the design and analysis of similar experiments.