Validity and timeliness of cancer diagnosis data collected during a prospective cohort study and reported by the English and Welsh cancer registries: a retrospective, comparative analysis.

BACKGROUND: Cancer places a high burden on society and health-care systems. Cancer research requires high-quality data, which is resource-intensive to obtain. Using administrative datasets such as cancer registries could improve the efficiency of cancer studies if data were valid and timely. We aimed to compare the validity and timeliness of diagnostic cancer data on-site during the SYMPLIFY study to that obtained from the cancer registries of England and Wales. METHODS: Cancer data were collected from 5461 participants across 44 hospital sites during a prospective observational study in England and Wales, SYMPLIFY (ISRCTN10226380). Linked cancer data were obtained from Digital Health and Care Wales (DHCW), the Welsh Cancer Intelligence and Surveillance Unit (WCISU), and the English National Cancer Registration Dataset (NCRD) and Rapid Cancer Registration Dataset (RCRD), regularly between April, 2022, and September, 2023. The primary objectives of the study were to evaluate the validity (via assessment of the proportion of completed data fields and concordance with SYMPLIFY sites), and timeliness of the data in all datasets, for all cancers diagnosed within 9 months of study enrolment. Data fields investigated were cancer site via International Classification of Disease, 10th Revision (ICD-10) code; cancer morphology via International Classification of Diseases for Oncology, 3rd Edition (ICD-O-3) morphology histology code and broad morphological grouping; overall stage; and TNM classification. FINDINGS: For data collected between April, 2022, and September, 2023, completeness at the last data cut available for each dataset ranged from 84% to 100% for ICD-O-3 morphology, from 43% to 100% for overall stage, and from 74% to 83% for TNM stage. The concordance between SYMPLIFY data and NCRD was 96% (95% CI 92-98) for ICD-10, 60% (53-66) for ICD-O-3 morphology, 83% (78-88) for ICD-O-3 broad morphology groupings, 73% (67-78) for stage, and 51% (44-59) for TNM; and with WCISU was 89% (95% CI 81-94) for ICD-10, 63% (53-73) for ICD-O-3 morphology, 80% (70-87) for ICD-O-3 broad morphology groupings, 83% (74-90) for overall stage, and 49% (38-61) for TNM stage. Concordance between SYMPLIFY and RCRD was 95% (95% CI 92-98) for ICD-10, 67% (60-74) for ICD-O-3 morphology, 85% (79-90) for ICD-O-3 broad morphology groupings, and 73% (65-80) for overall stage; and between SYMPLIFY and DHCW was 96% (91-99) for ICD-10, 74% (64-83) for ICD-O-3 morphology, 84% (75-91) for ICD-O-3 broad morphology groupings, and 87% (74-95) for stage. The SYMPLIFY dataset reached completion at 12 months post-enrolment in November, 2022, compared with 13 months for NCRD in December, 2023. RCRD and DHCW reached completion at 13 months and 15 months post-enrolment, in December, 2022, and February, 2023, respectively. INTERPRETATION: We report similar completeness of data fields, concordance, and timeliness between on-site and centrally collected cancer outcomes data. Our findings suggest that central registry data can help alleviate the resource burden in clinical trials and improve cancer research. Cancer registries might need additional resources to provide data for registry-based trials at scale. FUNDING: GRAIL Bio UK.

Evaluation of the impact of artificial intelligence-assisted image interpretation on the diagnostic performance of clinicians in identifying pneumothoraces on plain chest X-ray: a multi-case multi-reader study.

BACKGROUND: Artificial intelligence (AI)-assisted image interpretation is a fast-developing area of clinical innovation. Most research to date has focused on the performance of AI-assisted algorithms in comparison with that of radiologists rather than evaluating the algorithms' impact on the clinicians who often undertake initial image interpretation in routine clinical practice. This study assessed the impact of AI-assisted image interpretation on the diagnostic performance of frontline acute care clinicians for the detection of pneumothoraces (PTX). METHODS: A multicentre blinded multi-case multi-reader study was conducted between October 2021 and January 2022. The online study recruited 18 clinician readers from six different clinical specialties, with differing levels of seniority, across four English hospitals. The study included 395 plain CXR images, 189 positive for PTX and 206 negative. The reference standard was the consensus opinion of two thoracic radiologists with a third acting as arbitrator. General Electric Healthcare Critical Care Suite (GEHC CCS) PTX algorithm was applied to the final dataset. Readers individually interpreted the dataset without AI assistance, recording the presence or absence of a PTX and a confidence rating. Following a 'washout' period, this process was repeated including the AI output. RESULTS: Analysis of the performance of the algorithm for detecting or ruling out a PTX revealed an overall AUROC of 0.939. Overall reader sensitivity increased by 11.4% (95% CI 4.8, 18.0, p=0.002) from 66.8% (95% CI 57.3, 76.2) unaided to 78.1% aided (95% CI 72.2, 84.0, p=0.002), specificity 93.9% (95% CI 90.9, 97.0) without AI to 95.8% (95% CI 93.7, 97.9, p=0.247). The junior reader subgroup showed the largest improvement at 21.7% (95% CI 10.9, 32.6), increasing from 56.0% (95% CI 37.7, 74.3) to 77.7% (95% CI 65.8, 89.7, p<0.01). CONCLUSION: The study indicates that AI-assisted image interpretation significantly enhances the diagnostic accuracy of clinicians in detecting PTX, particularly benefiting less experienced practitioners. While overall interpretation time remained unchanged, the use of AI improved diagnostic confidence and sensitivity, especially among junior clinicians. These findings underscore the potential of AI to support less skilled clinicians in acute care settings.

Multi-cancer early detection test in symptomatic patients referred for cancer investigation in England and Wales (SYMPLIFY): a large-scale, observational cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Analysis of circulating tumour DNA could stratify cancer risk in symptomatic patients. We aimed to evaluate the performance of a methylation-based multicancer early detection (MCED) diagnostic test in symptomatic patients referred from primary care. METHODS: We did a multicentre, prospective, observational study at National Health Service (NHS) hospital sites in England and Wales. Participants aged 18 or older referred with non-specific symptoms or symptoms potentially due to gynaecological, lung, or upper or lower gastrointestinal cancers were included and gave a blood sample when they attended for urgent investigation. Participants were excluded if they had a history of or had received treatment for an invasive or haematological malignancy diagnosed within the preceding 3 years, were taking cytotoxic or demethylating agents that might interfere with the test, or had participated in another study of a GRAIL MCED test. Patients were followed until diagnostic resolution or up to 9 months. Cell-free DNA was isolated and the MCED test performed blinded to the clinical outcome. MCED predictions were compared with the diagnosis obtained by standard care to establish the primary outcomes of overall positive and negative predictive value, sensitivity, and specificity. Outcomes were assessed in participants with a valid MCED test result and diagnostic resolution. SYMPLIFY is registered with ISRCTN (ISRCTN10226380) and has completed follow-up at all sites. FINDINGS: 6238 participants were recruited between July 7 and Nov 30, 2021, across 44 hospital sites. 387 were excluded due to staff being unable to draw blood, sample errors, participant withdrawal, or identification of ineligibility after enrolment. Of 5851 clinically evaluable participants, 376 had no MCED test result and 14 had no information as to final diagnosis, resulting in 5461 included in the final cohort for analysis with an evaluable MCED test result and diagnostic outcome (368 [6·7%] with a cancer diagnosis and 5093 [93·3%] without a cancer diagnosis). The median age of participants was 61·9 years (IQR 53·4-73·0), 3609 (66·1%) were female and 1852 (33·9%) were male. The MCED test detected a cancer signal in 323 cases, in whom 244 cancer was diagnosed, yielding a positive predictive value of 75·5% (95% CI 70·5-80·1), negative predictive value of 97·6% (97·1-98·0), sensitivity of 66·3% (61·2-71·1), and specificity of 98·4% (98·1-98·8). Sensitivity increased with increasing age and cancer stage, from 24·2% (95% CI 16·0-34·1) in stage I to 95·3% (88·5-98·7) in stage IV. For cases in which a cancer signal was detected among patients with cancer, the MCED test's prediction of the site of origin was accurate in 85·2% (95% CI 79·8-89·3) of cases. Sensitivity 80·4% (95% CI 66·1-90·6) and negative predictive value 99·1% (98·2-99·6) were highest for patients with symptoms mandating investigation for upper gastrointestinal cancer. INTERPRETATION: This first large-scale prospective evaluation of an MCED diagnostic test in a symptomatic population demonstrates the feasibility of using an MCED test to assist clinicians with decisions regarding urgency and route of referral from primary care. Our data provide the basis for a prospective, interventional study in patients presenting to primary care with non-specific signs and symptoms. FUNDING: GRAIL Bio UK.

Deceptive measures of progress in the NHS long-term plan for cancer: case-based vs. population-based measures.

The NHS Long Term Plan for cancer aims to increase early-stage diagnoses from 50% to 75% and to have 55,000 more people each year survive their cancer for at least 5 years following diagnosis. The targets measures are flawed and could be met without improving outcomes that really matter to patients. The proportion of early-stage diagnoses could increase, while the number of patients presenting at a late-stage remains the same. More patients could survive their cancer for longer, but lead time and overdiagnosis bias make it impossible to know whether anyone had their life prolonged. The target measures should switch from biased case-based measures to unbiased population-based measures that reflect the key objectives in cancer care: reducing late-stage incidence and mortality.

Severe COVID-19 outcomes after full vaccination of primary schedule and initial boosters: pooled analysis of national prospective cohort studies of 30 million individuals in England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, and Wales.

BACKGROUND: Current UK vaccination policy is to offer future COVID-19 booster doses to individuals at high risk of serious illness from COVID-19, but it is still uncertain which groups of the population could benefit most. In response to an urgent request from the UK Joint Committee on Vaccination and Immunisation, we aimed to identify risk factors for severe COVID-19 outcomes (ie, COVID-19-related hospitalisation or death) in individuals who had completed their primary COVID-19 vaccination schedule and had received the first booster vaccine. METHODS: We constructed prospective cohorts across all four UK nations through linkages of primary care, RT-PCR testing, vaccination, hospitalisation, and mortality data on 30 million people. We included individuals who received primary vaccine doses of BNT162b2 (tozinameran; Pfizer-BioNTech) or ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 (Oxford-AstraZeneca) vaccines in our initial analyses. We then restricted analyses to those given a BNT162b2 or mRNA-1273 (elasomeran; Moderna) booster and had a severe COVID-19 outcome between Dec 20, 2021, and Feb 28, 2022 (when the omicron (B.1.1.529) variant was dominant). We fitted time-dependent Poisson regression models and calculated adjusted rate ratios (aRRs) and 95% CIs for the associations between risk factors and COVID-19-related hospitalisation or death. We adjusted for a range of potential covariates, including age, sex, comorbidities, and previous SARS-CoV-2 infection. Stratified analyses were conducted by vaccine type. We then did pooled analyses across UK nations using fixed-effect meta-analyses. FINDINGS: Between Dec 8, 2020, and Feb 28, 2022, 16 208 600 individuals completed their primary vaccine schedule and 13 836 390 individuals received a booster dose. Between Dec 20, 2021, and Feb 28, 2022, 59 510 (0·4%) of the primary vaccine group and 26 100 (0·2%) of those who received their booster had severe COVID-19 outcomes. The risk of severe COVID-19 outcomes reduced after receiving the booster (rate change: 8·8 events per 1000 person-years to 7·6 events per 1000 person-years). Older adults (≥80 years vs 18-49 years; aRR 3·60 [95% CI 3·45-3·75]), those with comorbidities (≥5 comorbidities vs none; 9·51 [9·07-9·97]), being male (male vs female; 1·23 [1·20-1·26]), and those with certain underlying health conditions-in particular, individuals receiving immunosuppressants (yes vs no; 5·80 [5·53-6·09])-and those with chronic kidney disease (stage 5 vs no; 3·71 [2·90-4·74]) remained at high risk despite the initial booster. Individuals with a history of COVID-19 infection were at reduced risk (infected ≥9 months before booster dose vs no previous infection; aRR 0·41 [95% CI 0·29-0·58]). INTERPRETATION: Older people, those with multimorbidity, and those with specific underlying health conditions remain at increased risk of COVID-19 hospitalisation and death after the initial vaccine booster and should, therefore, be prioritised for additional boosters, including novel optimised versions, and the increasing array of COVID-19 therapeutics. FUNDING: National Core Studies-Immunity, UK Research and Innovation (Medical Research Council), Health Data Research UK, the Scottish Government, and the University of Edinburgh.

Weight regain after behavioural weight management programmes and its impact on quality of life and cost effectiveness: Evidence synthesis and health economic analyses.

AIMS: We used data from a recent systematic review to investigate weight regain after behavioural weight management programmes (BWMPs, sometimes referred to as lifestyle modification programmes) and its impact on quality-of-life and cost-effectiveness. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Trial registries, databases and forward-citation searching (latest search December 2019) were used to identify randomized trials of BWMPs in adults with overweight/obesity reporting outcomes at ≥12 months, and after programme end. Two independent reviewers screened records. One reviewer extracted data and a second checked them. The differences between intervention and control groups were synthesized using mixed-effect, meta-regression and time-to-event models. We examined associations between weight difference and difference in quality-of-life. Cost-effectiveness was estimated from a health sector perspective. RESULTS: In total, 155 trials (n > 150 000) contributed to analyses. The longest follow-up was 23 years post-programme. At programme end, intervention groups achieved -2.8 kg (95%CI -3.2 to -2.4) greater weight loss than controls. Weight regain after programme end was 0.12-0.32 kg/year greater in intervention relative to control groups, with a between-group difference evident for at least 5 years. Quality-of-life increased in intervention groups relative to control at programme end and thereafter returned to control as the difference in weight between groups diminished. BWMPs with this initial weight loss and subsequent regain would be cost-effective if delivered for under £560 (£8.80-£3900) per person. CONCLUSIONS: Modest rates of weight regain, with persistent benefits for several years, should encourage health care practitioners and policymakers to offer obesity treatments that cost less than our suggested thresholds as a cost-effective intervention to improve long-term weight management. REGISTRATION: The review is registered on PROSPERO, CRD42018105744.

ChroniSense National Early Warning Score Study: Comparison Study of a Wearable Wrist Device to Measure Vital Signs in Patients Who Are Hospitalized.

BACKGROUND: Wearable devices could be used to continuously monitor vital signs in patients who are hospitalized, but they require validation. OBJECTIVE: This study aimed to evaluate the clinical validity of the prototype of a semiautomated wearable wrist device (ChroniSense Polso) to measure vital signs and provide National Early Warning Scores (NEWSs). METHODS: Vital signs and NEWSs measured using the wearable device were compared with standard, nurse-lead manual measurements. We enrolled adult patients (aged ≥18 years) who required vital sign measurements at least every 6 hours in a UK teaching district general hospital. Wearable device measurements were not used for clinical decision-making. The primary outcome was the agreement on the individual National Early Warning parameter scores and vital sign measurements: respiratory rate, oxygen saturation, body temperature, systolic blood pressure, and heart rate. Secondary outcomes were the agreement on the total NEWS, incidence of adverse events, and user acceptance. To compare the wearable device measurements with the standard measurements, we analyzed vital sign measurements by limits of agreement (Bland-Altman analysis) and conducted κ agreement analyses for NEWSs. A user experience survey was conducted with questions about comfort of the wrist device, safety, preference, and use. RESULTS: We included 132 participants in the study, with a mean age of 62 (SD 15.81) years; most of them were men (102/132, 77.3%). The highest weighted κ values were found for heart rate (0.69, 95% CI 0.57-0.81 for all 385 measurements) and systolic blood pressure (0.39, 95% CI 0.30-0.47 for all 339 measurements). Weighted κ values were low for respiration rate (0.03, 95% CI -0.001 to 0.05 for all 445 measurements), temperature (0, 95% CI 0-0 for all 231 measurements), and oxygen saturation (-0.11, 95% CI -0.20 to -0.02 for all 187 measurements). Weighted κ using Cicchetti-Allison weights showed κ of 0.20 (95% CI 0.03-0.38) when using all 56 total NEWSs. The user acceptance survey found that approximately half (45/91, 49%) of the participants found it comfortable to wear the device and liked its appearance. Most (85/92, 92%) of them said that they would wear the device during their next hospital visit, and many (74/92, 80%) said that they would recommend it to others. CONCLUSIONS: This study shows the promising use of a prototype wearable device to measure vital signs in a hospital setting. Agreement between the standard measurements and wearable device measurements was acceptable for systolic blood pressure and heart rate, but needed to be improved for respiration rate, temperature, and oxygen saturation. Future studies need to improve the clinical validity of this wearable device. Large studies are required to assess clinical outcomes and cost-effectiveness of wearable devices for vital sign measurement. INTERNATIONAL REGISTERED REPORT IDENTIFIER (IRRID): RR2-10.1136/bmjopen-2018-028219.

Artificial Intelligence Tool for Assessment of Indeterminate Pulmonary Nodules Detected with CT.

Background Limited data are available regarding whether computer-aided diagnosis (CAD) improves assessment of malignancy risk in indeterminate pulmonary nodules (IPNs). Purpose To evaluate the effect of an artificial intelligence-based CAD tool on clinician IPN diagnostic performance and agreement for both malignancy risk categories and management recommendations. Materials and Methods This was a retrospective multireader multicase study performed in June and July 2020 on chest CT studies of IPNs. Readers used only CT imaging data and provided an estimate of malignancy risk and a management recommendation for each case without and with CAD. The effect of CAD on average reader diagnostic performance was assessed using the Obuchowski-Rockette and Dorfman-Berbaum-Metz method to calculate estimates of area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), sensitivity, and specificity. Multirater Fleiss κ statistics were used to measure interobserver agreement for malignancy risk and management recommendations. Results A total of 300 chest CT scans of IPNs with maximal diameters of 5-30 mm (50.0% malignant) were reviewed by 12 readers (six radiologists, six pulmonologists) (patient median age, 65 years; IQR, 59-71 years; 164 [55%] men). Readers' average AUC improved from 0.82 to 0.89 with CAD (P < .001). At malignancy risk thresholds of 5% and 65%, use of CAD improved average sensitivity from 94.1% to 97.9% (P = .01) and from 52.6% to 63.1% (P < .001), respectively. Average reader specificity improved from 37.4% to 42.3% (P = .03) and from 87.3% to 89.9% (P = .05), respectively. Reader interobserver agreement improved with CAD for both the less than 5% (Fleiss κ, 0.50 vs 0.71; P < .001) and more than 65% (Fleiss κ, 0.54 vs 0.71; P < .001) malignancy risk categories. Overall reader interobserver agreement for management recommendation categories (no action, CT surveillance, diagnostic procedure) also improved with CAD (Fleiss κ, 0.44 vs 0.52; P = .001). Conclusion Use of computer-aided diagnosis improved estimation of indeterminate pulmonary nodule malignancy risk on chest CT scans and improved interobserver agreement for both risk stratification and management recommendations. © RSNA, 2022 Online supplemental material is available for this article. See also the editorial by Yanagawa in this issue.

Combining faecal immunochemical testing with blood test results for colorectal cancer risk stratification: a consecutive cohort of 16,604 patients presenting to primary care.

BACKGROUND: Faecal immunochemical tests (FITs) are used to triage primary care patients with symptoms that could be caused by colorectal cancer for referral to colonoscopy. The aim of this study was to determine whether combining FIT with routine blood test results could improve the performance of FIT in the primary care setting. METHODS: Results of all consecutive FITs requested by primary care providers between March 2017 and December 2020 were retrieved from the Oxford University Hospitals NHS Foundation Trust. Demographic factors (age, sex), reason for referral, and results of blood tests within 90 days were also retrieved. Patients were followed up for incident colorectal cancer in linked hospital records. The sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictive values of FIT alone, FIT paired with blood test results, and several multivariable FIT models, were compared. RESULTS: One hundred thirty-nine colorectal cancers were diagnosed (0.8%). Sensitivity and specificity of FIT alone at a threshold of 10 µg Hb/g were 92.1 and 91.5% respectively. Compared to FIT alone, blood test results did not improve the performance of FIT. Pairing blood test results with FIT increased specificity but decreased sensitivity. Multivariable models including blood tests performed similarly to FIT alone. CONCLUSIONS: FIT is a highly sensitive tool for identifying higher risk individuals presenting to primary care with lower risk symptoms. Combining blood test results with FIT does not appear to lead to better discrimination for colorectal cancer than using FIT alone.

Additional insulin dosing for fat and protein in children with type 1 diabetes using multiple daily injections.

OBJECTIVE: High-fat high-protein (HFHP) meals are associated with post-prandial hyperglycemia in type 1 diabetes (T1D), administration of additional insulin for such meals is recommended in order to optimize glucose levels. Optimal timing of additional insulin for HFHP meals in children and young people receiving multiple daily injections (MDI) remains unclear. AIM: To investigate the glycemic impact of additional insulin doses given before or after eating a HFHP meal in children with T1D using MDI. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: A randomized, controlled three period crossover trial of 27 participants aged 13 years (6.1-17.7) at two Pediatric Diabetes centers was conducted. Additional rapid-acting insulin for the fat-protein content of a standardized HFHP meal was given at three time points + 0 + 1 + 2 h of usual pre - prandial carbohydrate insulin ; calculated using an algorithm extrapolated from current evidence base and clinical recommendations. Post-prandial glucose (PPG) parameters were calculated for 420 minutes using continuous glucose monitoring. The primary outcome was mean PPG excursion. Secondary outcomes included peak glucose, time to peak and hypoglycemia incidence. RESULTS: There was no difference in post-prandial glucose parameters when additional HFHP insulin was administered at + 0 , + 1 , or + 2 h : mean glucose excursion (mmol/L) (SE): 1.9(0.7), 1.2(0.7), 2.5(0.7); p = 0.5); mean peak glucose (mmol/L)(SE): 10.9(0.9), 11.5(0.8), 11.5(0.9); p = 0.9; time to peak glucose (mins)(SE): 82.3(35.4), 113.6(30.9), 95.1(32.1); p = 0.8. Mild hypoglycemia was common (55%) in all groups (p = 0.97). CONCLUSION: We found no benefit in giving additional insulin as a split dose for HFHP meals in children using MDI, mild hypoglycemia was common. Future studies would benefit from refinement of the insulin dose algorithm.

Oxford consensus on primary cam morphology and femoroacetabular impingement syndrome: part 1-definitions, terminology, taxonomy and imaging outcomes.

INTRODUCTION: Primary cam morphology is a mostly benign bony prominence that develops at the femoral head-neck junction of the hip, but it is highly prevalent in many athlete populations. In the small proportion of athletes for whom it is not benign, the resulting hip osteoarthritis can be debilitating. Clinicians, athletes, patients and researchers do not yet agree on important primary cam morphology elements. We aimed to ascertain and improve the level of agreement on primary cam morphology definitions, terminology, taxonomy and imaging outcome measures. METHODS: To collect and aggregate informed opinions, an expert panel-the Young Athlete's Hip Research Collaborative-rated primary cam morphology definition, terminology, taxonomy and imaging outcome statements through an online Delphi exercise followed by an online meeting to explore areas of tension and dissent. Reporting followed Conducting and REporting DElphi Studies. RESULTS: A diverse and inclusive Delphi panel (n=65 for rounds 1 and 2, representing 18 countries; 6 stakeholder groups; 40% women) agreed on 35 of 47 statements in 4 domains, while surfacing areas of tension and dissent. This Delphi panel agreed on four key issues essential to moving research and clinical care forward around primary cam morphology. They agreed on: (1) definition, confirming its conceptual attributes (tissue type, size, location, shape and ownership); (2) terminology-use 'morphology' and not terms with a negative connotation like 'lesion', 'abnormality' or 'deformity'; (3) taxonomy, distinguishing between primary and secondary cam morphology, and (4) imaging outcomes, a continuous bone/cartilage alpha angle on radial femoral head-neck MRI for primary cam morphology aetiology research. CONCLUSION: This consensus provides athletes, patients, clinicians and researchers with a strong foundation to guide more precise communication, better clinical decision-making and higher value research about primary cam morphology and its natural history.

Oxford consensus on primary cam morphology and femoroacetabular impingement syndrome: part 2-research priorities on conditions affecting the young person's hip.

INTRODUCTION: Primary cam morphology is highly prevalent in many athlete populations, causing debilitating hip osteoarthritis in some. Existing research is mired in confusion partly because stakeholders have not agreed on key primary cam morphology elements or a prioritised research agenda. We aimed to inform a more rigorous, inclusive and evidence-based approach to research on primary cam morphology and its natural history by working towards agreement on a set of research priorities for conditions affecting the young person's hip. METHODS: An international expert panel-the Young Athlete's Hip Research (YAHiR) Collaborative-rated research priority statements through an online two-round Delphi exercise and met online to explore areas of tension and dissent. Panellists ranked the prioritised research statements according to the Essential National Health Research (ENHR) ranking strategy. Reporting of results followed REPRISE (REporting guideline for PRIority SEtting of health). RESULTS: A diverse Delphi panel (n=65, Delphi rounds 1 and 2; three ENHR strategy surveys: n=49; n=44; n=42) from 18 countries representing six stakeholder groups, prioritised and ranked 18 of 38 research priority statements. The prioritised statements outlined seven research domains: (1) best practice physiotherapy, (2) rehabilitation progression and return to sport, (3) exercise intervention and load management, (4) primary cam morphology prognosis and aetiology, (5) femoroacetabular impingement syndrome prognosis and aetiology, (6) diagnostic criteria, and (7) screening. The panel recommended areas of tension and dissent for the research community to focus on immediately. CONCLUSION: While informing more rigorous, inclusive and evidence-based research, this consensus is a roadmap for researchers, policy-makers and funders to implement research dedicated to reducing the cost and burden of hip disease related to primary cam morphology.

Temporal trends in childhood cancer survival in Egypt, 2007 to 2017: A large retrospective study of 14 808 children with cancer from the Children's Cancer Hospital Egypt.

Childhood cancer is a priority in Egypt due to large numbers of children with cancer, suboptimal care and insufficient resources. It is difficult to evaluate progress in survival because of paucity of data in National Cancer Registry. In this study, we studied survival rates and trends in survival of the largest available cohort of children with cancer (n = 15 779, aged 0-18 years) from Egypt between 2007 and 2017, treated at Children's Cancer Hospital Egypt-(CCHE), representing 40% to 50% of all childhood cancers across Egypt. We estimated 5-year overall survival (OS) for 14 808 eligible patients using Kaplan-Meier method, and determined survival trends using Cox regression by single year of diagnosis and by diagnosis periods. We compared age-standardized rates to international benchmarks in England and the United States, identified cancers with inferior survival and provided recommendations for improvement. Five-year OS was 72.1% (95% CI 71.3-72.9) for all cancers combined, and survival trends increased significantly by single year of diagnosis (P < .001) and by calendar periods from 69.6% to 74.2% (P < .0001) between 2007-2012 and 2013-2017. Survival trends improved significantly for leukemias, lymphomas, CNS tumors, neuroblastoma, hepatoblastoma and Ewing Sarcoma. Survival was significantly lower by 9% and 11.2% (P < .001) than England and the United States, respectively. Significantly inferior survival was observed for the majority of cancers. Although survival trends are improving for childhood cancers in Egypt/CCHE, survival is still inferior in high-income countries. We provide evidence-based recommendations to improve survival in Egypt by reflecting on current obstacles in care, with further implications on practice and policy.

Combining simple blood tests to identify primary care patients with unexpected weight loss for cancer investigation: Clinical risk score development, internal validation, and net benefit analysis.

BACKGROUND: Unexpected weight loss (UWL) is a presenting feature of cancer in primary care. Existing research proposes simple combinations of clinical features (risk factors, symptoms, signs, and blood test data) that, when present, warrant cancer investigation. More complex combinations may modify cancer risk to sufficiently rule-out the need for investigation. We aimed to identify which clinical features can be used together to stratify patients with UWL based on their risk of cancer. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We used data from 63,973 adults (age: mean 59 years, standard deviation 21 years; 42% male) to predict cancer in patients with UWL recorded in a large representative United Kingdom primary care electronic health record between January 1, 2000 and December 31, 2012. We derived 3 clinical prediction models using logistic regression and backwards stepwise covariate selection: Sm, symptoms-only model; STm, symptoms and tests model; Tm, tests-only model. Fifty imputations replaced missing data. Estimates of discrimination and calibration were derived using 10-fold internal cross-validation. Simple clinical risk scores are presented for models with the greatest clinical utility in decision curve analysis. The STm and Tm showed improved discrimination (area under the curve ≥ 0.91), calibration, and greater clinical utility than the Sm. The Tm was simplest including age-group, sex, albumin, alkaline phosphatase, liver enzymes, C-reactive protein, haemoglobin, platelets, and total white cell count. A Tm score of 5 balanced ruling-in (sensitivity 84.0%, positive likelihood ratio 5.36) and ruling-out (specificity 84.3%, negative likelihood ratio 0.19) further cancer investigation. A Tm score of 1 prioritised ruling-out (sensitivity 97.5%). At this threshold, 35 people presenting with UWL in primary care would be referred for investigation for each person with cancer referred, and 1,730 people would be spared referral for each person with cancer not referred. Study limitations include using a retrospective routinely collected dataset, a reliance on coding to identify UWL, and missing data for some predictors. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings suggest that combinations of simple blood test abnormalities could be used to identify patients with UWL who warrant referral for investigation, while people with combinations of normal results could be exempted from referral.

Childhood cancer hospital resource utilization and costs in Egypt, 2013-2017; patterns, trends, and associated factors for 8886 patients from Children's Cancer Hospital, Egypt.

INTRODUCTION: There is a lack ofevidence about resource use and costs of childhood cancer care in Egypt. Knowledge about resource use/costs can help in better resource planning to improve care and outcomes efficiently. In this study, we estimated patterns and trends of hospital resource use and costs for children with cancer (n = 8886, aged 0-18 years) treated at Children's Cancer Hospital, Egypt (CCHE), between 2013 and 2017, by ICCC-3 groups, at one and three years post-diagnosis. METHODS: We estimated costs from the healthcare provider perspective, expressed in USD 2019. We also studied resource use/cost trends, and factors associated with inpatient days and costs. RESULTS: For all cancers combined, median costs were $14,774 (IQR: $6,559-$23,738) at one year and $19,799 (IQR: $8,921-$34,204) at three years post-diagnosis. Median inpatient days were 38 days (IQR: 17-60) at one year, and 43 days (IQR: 20-74) at three years post-diagnosis. Patients with acute lymphoblastic leukemia (ALL), acute myeloid leukemia (AML), and neuroblastoma imposed the greatest financial burden on CCHE, representing 53.1% of total costs. AML patients had the highest costs/resource use of all childhood cancers. Cost trends decreased by 2.9% (P < 0.001) for all cancers combined, due to economic instability in Egypt between 2013 and 2017. The use of IV supportive drugs increased by 24.3% (P < 0.001) over time for children with solid tumors. CONCLUSION: These findings will inform hospital resource planning and budgeting to promote value in care delivery, with implications for pediatric oncology practice and policy in Egypt/CCHE. Estimated costs provide the foundation for cost-effectiveness analysis.

Primary cam morphology; bump, burden or bog-standard? A concept analysis.

BACKGROUND: Cam morphology, a distinct bony morphology of the hip, is prevalent in many athletes, and a risk factor for hip-related pain and osteoarthritis. Secondary cam morphology, due to existing or previous hip disease (eg, Legg-Calve-Perthes disease), is well-described. Cam morphology not clearly associated with a disease is a challenging concept for clinicians, scientists and patients. We propose this morphology, which likely develops during skeletal maturation as a physiological response to load, should be referred to as primary cam morphology. The aim of this study was to introduce and clarify the concept of primary cam morphology. DESIGN: We conducted a concept analysis of primary cam morphology using articles that reported risk factors associated with primary cam morphology; we excluded articles on secondary cam morphology. The concept analysis method is a rigorous eight-step process designed to clarify complex 'concepts'; the end product is a precise definition that supports the theoretical basis of the chosen concept. RESULTS: We propose five defining attributes of primary cam morphology-tissue type, size, site, shape and ownership-in a new conceptual and operational definition. Primary cam morphology is a cartilage or bony prominence (bump) of varying size at the femoral head-neck junction, which changes the shape of the femoral head from spherical to aspherical. It often occurs in asymptomatic male athletes in both hips. The cartilage or bone alpha angle (calculated from radiographs, CT or MRI) is the most common method to measure cam morphology. We found inconsistent reporting of primary cam morphology taxonomy, terminology, and how the morphology is operationalised. CONCLUSION: We introduce and clarify primary cam morphology, and propose a new conceptual and operational definition. Several elements of the concept of primary cam morphology remain unclear and contested. Experts need to agree on the new taxonomy, terminology and definition that better reflect the primary cam morphology landscape-a bog-standard bump in most athletic hips, and a possible hip disease burden in a selected few.

Evaluation of an intervention to provide brief support and personalized feedback on food shopping to reduce saturated fat intake (PC-SHOP): A randomized controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: Guidelines recommend reducing saturated fat (SFA) intake to decrease cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk, but there is limited evidence on scalable and effective approaches to change dietary intake, given the large proportion of the population exceeding SFA recommendations. We aimed to develop a system to provide monthly personalized feedback and healthier swaps based on nutritional analysis of loyalty card data from the largest United Kingdom grocery store together with brief advice and support from a healthcare professional (HCP) in the primary care practice. Following a hybrid effectiveness-feasibility design, we tested the effects of the intervention on SFA intake and low-density lipoprotein (LDL) cholesterol as well as the feasibility and acceptability of providing nutritional advice using loyalty card data. METHODS AND FINDINGS: The Primary Care Shopping Intervention for Cardiovascular Disease Prevention (PC-SHOP) study is a parallel randomized controlled trial with a 3 month follow-up conducted between 21 March 2018 to 16 January2019. Adults ≥18 years with LDL cholesterol >3 mmol/L (n = 113) were recruited from general practitioner (GP) practices in Oxfordshire and randomly allocated to "Brief Support" (BS, n = 48), "Brief Support + Shopping Feedback" (SF, n = 48) or "Control" (n = 17). BS consisted of a 10-minute consultation with an HCP to motivate participants to reduce their SFA intake. Shopping feedback comprised a personalized report on the SFA content of grocery purchases and suggestions for lower SFA swaps. The primary outcome was the between-group difference in change in SFA intake (% total energy intake) at 3 months adjusted for baseline SFA and GP practice using intention-to-treat analysis. Secondary outcomes included %SFA in purchases, LDL cholesterol, and feasibility outcomes. The trial was powered to detect an absolute reduction in SFA of 3% (SD3). Neither participants nor the study team were blinded to group allocation. A total of 106 (94%) participants completed the study: 68% women, 95% white ethnicity, average age 62.4 years (SD 10.8), body mass index (BMI) 27.1 kg/m2 (SD 4.7). There were small decreases in SFA intake at 3 months: control = -0.1% (95% CI -1.8 to 1.7), BS = -0.7% (95% CI -1.8 to 0.3), SF = -0.9% (95% CI -2.0 to 0.2); but no evidence of a significant effect of either intervention compared with control (difference adjusted for GP practice and baseline: BS versus control = -0.33% [95% CI -2.11 to 1.44], p = 0.709; SF versus control = -0.11% [95% CI -1.92 to 1.69], p = 0.901). There were similar trends in %SFA based on supermarket purchases: control = -0.5% (95% CI -2.3 to 1.2), BS = -1.3% (95% CI -2.3 to -0.3), SF = -1.5% (95% CI -2.5 to -0.5) from baseline to follow-up, but these were not significantly different: BS versus control p = 0.379; SF versus control p = 0.411. There were small reductions in LDL from baseline to follow-up (control = -0.14 mmol/L [95% CI -0.48, 0.19), BS: -0.39 mmol/L [95% CI -0.59, -0.19], SF: -0.14 mmol/L [95% CI -0.34, 0.07]), but these were not significantly different: BS versus control p = 0.338; SF versus control p = 0.790. Limitations of this study include the small sample of participants recruited, which limits the power to detect smaller differences, and the low response rate (3%), which may limit the generalisability of these findings. CONCLUSIONS: In this study, we have shown it is feasible to deliver brief advice in primary care to encourage reductions in SFA intake and to provide personalized advice to encourage healthier choices using supermarket loyalty card data. There was no evidence of large reductions in SFA, but we are unable to exclude more modest benefits. The feasibility, acceptability, and scalability of these interventions suggest they have potential to encourage small changes in diet, which could be beneficial at the population level. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ISRCTN14279335.

Long-term health outcomes of people with reduced kidney function in the UK: A modelling study using population health data.

BACKGROUND: People with reduced kidney function have increased cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk. We present a policy model that simulates individuals' long-term health outcomes and costs to inform strategies to reduce risks of kidney and CVDs in this population. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We used a United Kingdom primary healthcare database, the Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD), linked with secondary healthcare and mortality data, to derive an open 2005-2013 cohort of adults (≥18 years of age) with reduced kidney function (≥2 measures of estimated glomerular filtration rate [eGFR] <90 mL/min/1.73 m2 ≥90 days apart). Data on individuals' sociodemographic and clinical characteristics at entry and outcomes (first occurrences of stroke, myocardial infarction (MI), and hospitalisation for heart failure; annual kidney disease stages; and cardiovascular and nonvascular deaths) during follow-up were extracted. The cohort was used to estimate risk equations for outcomes and develop a chronic kidney disease-cardiovascular disease (CKD-CVD) health outcomes model, a Markov state transition model simulating individuals' long-term outcomes, healthcare costs, and quality of life based on their characteristics at entry. Model-simulated cumulative risks of outcomes were compared with respective observed risks using a split-sample approach. To illustrate model value, we assess the benefits of partial (i.e., at 2013 levels) and optimal (i.e., fully compliant with clinical guidelines in 2019) use of cardioprotective medications. The cohort included 1.1 million individuals with reduced kidney function (median follow-up 4.9 years, 45% men, 19% with CVD, and 74% with only mildly decreased eGFR of 60-89 mL/min/1.73 m2 at entry). Age, kidney function status, and CVD events were the key determinants of subsequent morbidity and mortality. The model-simulated cumulative disease risks corresponded well to observed risks in participant categories by eGFR level. Without the use of cardioprotective medications, for 60- to 69-year-old individuals with mildly decreased eGFR (60-89 mL/min/1.73 m2), the model projected a further 22.1 (95% confidence interval [CI] 21.8-22.3) years of life if without previous CVD and 18.6 (18.2-18.9) years if with CVD. Cardioprotective medication use at 2013 levels (29%-44% of indicated individuals without CVD; 64%-76% of those with CVD) was projected to increase their life expectancy by 0.19 (0.14-0.23) and 0.90 (0.50-1.21) years, respectively. At optimal cardioprotective medication use, the projected health gains in these individuals increased by further 0.33 (0.25-0.40) and 0.37 (0.20-0.50) years, respectively. Limitations include risk factor measurements from the UK routine primary care database and limited albuminuria measurements. CONCLUSIONS: The CKD-CVD policy model is a novel resource for projecting long-term health outcomes and assessing treatment strategies in people with reduced kidney function. The model indicates clear survival benefits with cardioprotective treatments in this population and scope for further benefits if use of these treatments is optimised.

The association between unexpected weight loss and cancer diagnosis in primary care: a matched cohort analysis of 65,000 presentations.

BACKGROUND: We aimed to understand the time period of cancer diagnosis and the cancer types detected in primary care patients with unexpected weight loss (UWL) to inform cancer guidelines. METHODS: This retrospective matched cohort study used cancer registry linked electronic health records from the UK's Clinical Practice Research Datalink from between 2000 and 2014. Univariable and multivariable time-to-event analyses examined the association between UWL, and all cancers combined, cancer site and stage. RESULTS: In all, 63,973 patients had UWL recorded, of whom 1375 (2.2%) were diagnosed with cancer within 2 years (days-to-diagnosis: mean 181; median 80). Men with UWL (HR 3.28 (2.88-3.73)) and women (1.87 (1.68-2.08)) were more likely than comparators to be diagnosed with cancer within 3 months. The association was greatest in men aged ≥50 years and women ≥70 years. The commonest cancers were pancreas, cancer of unknown primary, gastro-oesophageal, lymphoma, hepatobiliary, lung, bowel and renal-tract. The majority were late-stage, but there was some evidence of association with stage II and stage III cancers. In the 3-24 months after presenting with UWL, cancer diagnosis was less likely than in comparators. CONCLUSION: UWL recorded in primary care is associated with a broad range of cancer sites of early and late-stage.

Using fractional exhaled nitric oxide to guide step-down treatment decisions in patients with asthma: a systematic review and individual patient data meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: High exhaled nitric oxide fraction (F ENO) levels are associated with greater risk of asthma exacerbation. However, it is not clear how F ENO can be used to guide safe reductions in inhaled corticosteroid (ICS) doses in asthma patients. This study assesses the ability of F ENO to guide ICS reductions. METHODS: Systematic searching of electronic databases identified prospective observational studies and randomised controlled trials which recruited participants with mild-to-moderate asthma aged ≥12 years and measured F ENO before reducing ICS. We performed multilevel mixed-effects logistic regression in relation to acute exacerbations and estimated each participant's exacerbation risk using our logistic regression model. RESULTS: We included data from seven out of eight eligible studies, representing 384 participants. ICS doses were halved in four studies and withdrawn in three studies. A baseline F ENO measurement of ≥50 ppb was associated with increased risk of exacerbations (crude OR 3.14, 95% CI 1.41-7.00, p=0.005; adjusted OR 3.08, 95% CI 1.36-6.98, p=0.007) and corresponded to an estimated exacerbation risk cut-off of 15%. Reducing ICS when estimated exacerbation risk was <15% versus <10% would result in fewer patients remaining on the same ICS dose (40 (10.4%) out of 384 versus 141 (36.7%) out of 384), but similar proportions of patients avoiding exacerbations (222 (91.4%) out of 243, 95% CI 87.1-94.6% versus 311 (90.4%) out of 344, 95% CI 86.8-93.3%). CONCLUSION: In patients with mild-to-moderate asthma, gradual ICS reduction when F ENO is <50 ppb may help decrease ICS use without increasing exacerbations. Future research should aim to validate these findings in larger populations.