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Objective To analyze the characteristics of school public health emergencies in Zhejiang Province, and to provide current suggestions for prevention and control. Methods A descriptive epidemiological analysis was conducted for the public health emergencies occurred in schools from 2014 to 2016 in Zhejiang Province. The data was derived from Emergency Public Reporting System. Results A total of 100 public health emergencies occurred in schools and 3 784 cases were reported during 2014-2016 in Zhejiang Province, meanwhile no death occurred. There were two peak seasons every year for the emergency report. Forty percent of the emergencies were reported during November to January of the following year, and 31.00 % were during April to May. The emergencies occurred on all the municipal districts when Ningbo accounted for 50.00%. The schools and kindergartens in rural area, town and urban area reported 37, 28 and 35 emergencies respectively. The main etiology of emergencies included varicella(37.00%), hand-foot-mouth disease(29.00%), norovirus(22.00%). The median duration of varicella outbreaks was 31.67d, which was longer than others. The scale of influenza and norovirus outbreaks were larger, and the median cases were 76 and 49 respectively. The time of emergencies detecting was significantly different between different detecting patterns. Conclusion The prevention and control of school emergencies was still urgently. There were still some deficiencies in the identification and active reporting of the epidemic, which need to be solved, while taking advantage of the surveillance system for sick absence. The future strategies should focused on reinforcing immunization and improving health habits to promote school health.
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Objective To explore the correlations between the scarlet fever and meteorological factors in Zhejiang Province. Methods The data which was been analyzed including month case of scarlet fever and meteorological factors from JAN 2005 to DEC 201 4,were analyzed for the degree and characteristic of the correlations between the scarlet fever and meteorological factors with generalized additive model(GAM).Results There were negative correlation between scarlet fever and meteorological factors including water vapor pressure and hours of sunshine.There were complex nonlinear correlations between scarlet fever and meteorological factors including precipitation,average barometric pressure,average wind speed and average temperature .The relationship between scarlet fever and meteorological factors including average barometric pressure,average wind speed and average temperature showed approximate quadratic function.The precipitation above 3 500(0.1 mm),average barometric pressure above 1 0 200(0.1 hPa)and under 1 0 050(0.1 hPa),average wind speed between 1 8.7 -23.6 (0.1 m/s)and average temperature between 1 00 -250 (0.1 ℃) were the suitable meteorological condition for scarlet fever.Conclusion There were complex nonlinear correlations between the scarlet fever and meteorological factors.Precipitation,average barometric pressure,average wind speed and average temperature may be associated with the incidence of scarlet fever.
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Objective To study the function of X -1 2 -ARIMA model in analysis on incidence trend of typhoid. Methods Secular trend,seasonal periodicity and random fluctuations of the monthly morbidity data in Zhejiang province from 2005 to 201 3 were analyzed by X -1 2 -ARIMA model.Results The seasonal fluctuation showed a narrowing trend year by year during 2005 to 201 3.After September,2007,the incidence of typhoid showed a downward trend.After 2008,the annual peak of incidence changed from August to July.The irregular factor may well represent the outbreak. Conclusion The X -1 2 -ARIMA model showed clear secular trend and seasonal periodicity,and the random fluctuation was of great value.
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Objective To develop appropriate evaluation methods of local basic public health services which are suitable to county level and above.Methods Data on basic public health services of 1 1 cities in Zhejiang province in 201 2 was evaluated by different evaluation methods including weighted synthetic scored method,weighted synthetic index method, Weighted Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution (Topsis ) and Weighted Rank -Sum Ratio (RSR).The consistency of evaluation results were tested by Kendall's coefficient of concordance W test.Combination evaluation was conducted to evaluate four single synthetic evaluation results through average method,weighted average combination evaluation method and hierarchical clustering analysis.Results Different synthetic evaluation methods had different evaluation results.However,in the order,the top two were all Hangzhou and Ningbo.Kendall's W test showed good consistence of four evaluation results.Rank of 1 1 cities were Hangzhou,Ningbo,Shaoxing,Jiaxing,Huzhou, Taizhou,Jinhua,Zhoushan,Lishui,Wenzhou and Quzhou based on combination evaluation value by average method, which was the same to the rank based on weighted average combination evaluation result.Eleven cities could be classified into four categories by hierarchical clustering analysis with statistical significance (P <0.01 ):Excellent (Hangzhou, Ningbo),Good (Huzhou,Jiaxing,Shaoxing),Middle (Zhoushan,Jinhua,Taizhou)and Poor (Wenzhou,Quzhou, Lishui).Conclusion These four synthetic evaluation methods used in this study are all suitable to county level and above in basic public health services evaluation.Various synthetic evaluation methods could be used in practice with combination evaluation of various evaluation results.Average method which is convenient and accurate is preferred when consistency of various synthetic evaluation results was testified.Hierarchical clustering analysis could be used for combination evaluation when no precise rank is needed.
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<p><b>OBJECTIVE</b>To analyze and evaluate the application of China Infectious Diseases Automated-alert and Response System(CIDARS)in Zhejiang province.</p><p><b>METHODS</b>Data through the monitoring program in 2012 was analyzed descriptively and compared with the incidence data in the same period as well information related to public health emergency events.</p><p><b>RESULTS</b>A total of 14 292 signals were generated on 28 kinds of infectious diseases in the system, in Zhejiang province. 100% of the signals had been responded and the median time to response was 0.81 hours. 123 signals (0.86%)were preliminarily verified as suspected outbreaks and 33 outbreaks were finally confirmed by further field investigation, with a positive ratio of 0.23% . Information related to regional distribution showed significant differences which reflecting a positive correlation between the numbers of diseases and the time of early-warning(r = 0. 97, P < 0.01). Distribution of information related to different types of diseases was also significantly different, showing a positive correlation between the prevalent strength of the disease and the amount of information in a specific area(r = 0.80, P < 0.01).</p><p><b>CONCLUSION</b>CIDARS had a good performance which could be used to assist the local public health institutions on early detection of possible outbreaks at the early stage. However, the effectiveness was different for different regions and diseases.</p>