ABSTRACT
@#Abstract: Objective To explore the spatial epidemiological characteristics of severe cases hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD) in Guangxi, China, from 2014 to 2018, and to provide a basis for identifying the high-risk regions as well as the prevention and control of severe cases of HFMD in Guangxi. Methods Spatial-temporal scanning analysis, global and local spatial autocorrelation analysis were used to analyze the spatial clustering of HFMD. The trend surface analysis was used to evaluate the spatial distribution trend of HFMD. Results From 2014 to 2018, the incidence and severe case fatality rates of HFMD were 3.89/100 000 and 4.23%, respectively. Monte Carlo scanning analysis showed that the first cluster region was Cenxi City, the second cluster was mainly concentrated in northwest of Guangxi, and the aggregation time was mainly concentrated in April to May and August to October. The global spatial autocorrelation analysis showed that the severe HFMD was significant clustering distribution, and the Moran's I coefficients of the sever cases, severe morbidity and severe case fatality rate were 0.088, 0.118, 0.197, respectively (P<0.05). Local spatial autocorrelation analysis showed that hotspots of severe HFMD cases were concentrated in the southern Guangxi, mainly in Lingshan County. Anselin local Moran's I clustering and outlier analysis indicated that 5 high-high (H-H) clustering regions for fatality were Lingshan, Pubei, Zhongshan, Zhaoping and Pinggui County. There were 6 high-high (H-H) clustering regions for severe incidence rate, namely Lingshan, Qinnan, Lingyun, Youjiang, Bama Yao Autonomous and Pinggui County, and 1 high-low (H-L) clustering region, Cenxi County. The trend surface analysis showed that the overall number of severe cases of death decreased from east or west to the middle, and increased from north to middle, and then decreased to south. Conclusions Severe HFMD cases in Guangxi have obvious spatial-temporal clustering, and the hop spots are mainly concentrated in southern Guangxi. The prevention and control of HFMD in areas with high incidence of severe cases should be strengthened to reduce the burden of HFMD cases.