ABSTRACT
@# Objective To analyze the epidemiological characteristics of mumps in Jiamusi city, and predict the incidence trend, so as to provide evidence for taking targeted prevention and control measures in the cold areas in Heilongjiang Province. Methods The mumps cases were collected from China Information System for Disease Control and Prevention in Jiamusi city from 2004 to 2017.Descriptive epidemiologic method was used for analyzing the epidemic of mumps in Jiamusi city during 2004-2017, and the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) was used to forecast the incidence of mumps in 2018. Results A total of 1 586 cases of mumps were reported in Jiamusi city during 2004-2017, the average annual incidence rate was 4.52/100 000. The incidence of mumps increased year by year from 2015 to 2017.The ratio of male to female was 1.67 :1,those aged from 3 to 19 years accounted for 86.32% of the total cases, the higher incidence rates were found at the age of 5-9 and 10-14 years.The incidence of mumps presented obviously seasonal characteristics.Most cases concentrated from April to July and from November to January. The incidence of urban disease was higher than that of other counties; The established finally mode was ARIMA(4,1,2)(2,0,0)12 and the predicted incidence from January 2018 to June 2018 was consistent with the actual one.From July 2018 to December 2018,predictive mumps incidence were:0.30/100 000, 0.35/100 000, 0.38/100 000, 0.39/100 000, 0.35/100 000, 0.33/100 000. Conclusions ARIMA model could predict the trend of mumps in Jiamusi city.To reduce the incidence of children, it is recommended to develop a second dose of mumps vaccine at the preschool age(3-6 years)or primary school;At the same time, surveillance and control should be continually strengthened in kindergartens and schools.
ABSTRACT
<p><b>BACKGROUND</b>Studies on human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) vaccines have recently focused on targeting the conserved neutralizing epitopes 2F5 and 4E10, and hence it is important to understand the extent of mutations in these two viral epitopes. Here, we investigated the amino acid mutations in epitopes of 2F5 (ELDKWA, HIV-1 HXB2 env 662 - 667 aa) and 4E10 (NWFDIT, HIV-1 HXB2 env 671 - 676 aa) in the membrane proximal-external region of gp41 from clade B' HIV-1-infected individuals living in Henan province, China. We also examined the frequency of a mutation and its relation to disease progression.</p><p><b>METHODS</b>A cohort of 54 treatment-naïve HIV-1-infected individuals was recruited in this study, and 16 individuals were selected for a short-term longitudinal study on sequence evolution. The HIV-1 env gp41 gene was amplified, cloned, and sequenced, and predicted amino acid sequences were aligned for analysis.</p><p><b>RESULTS</b>The mutations E662A and K665E on the 2F5 epitope and N671S and T676S on the 4E10 epitope were seen. Simultaneous RNA sequencing showed some discrepancies with proviral DNA sequences. In our longitudinal study, mutation levels of these two neutralizing epitopes were low but diverse and persistent. The frequencies of mutations within the 4E10 peptide NWFDIT in slow progressors were noticeably lower than those in AIDS patients (P < 0.05).</p><p><b>CONCLUSIONS</b>Antigenic variation of the neutralizing epitopes 2F5 and 4E10 is limited in subtype B' infection, and that 4E10 peptide mutation is correlated with disease progression. Monitoring epitope mutations will offer useful data for development of the candidate 2F5-like and 4E10-like antibodies to prevent and treat AIDS.</p>