Desempenho da atenção primária à saúde no estado de São Paulo, Brasil, no período de 2010-2019 / Performance of primary health care in São Paulo state, Brazil, during the period 2010-2019

Resumo O artigo apresenta uma análise do desempenho da APS no estado de São Paulo na última década, em contexto de crise econômica e retração dos investimentos em saúde. Utilizaram-se indicadores de desempenho, determinantes em saúde e sistema de saúde, em série temporal (2010 a 2019), a partir de matriz conceitual adaptada. Foram calculadas variações percentuais anuais (VPA) de cada indicador em modelo log-linear. Os indicadores de desempenho apresentaram, no geral, evolução favorável; no entanto, ocorreu piora em indicadores relacionados à qualidade do cuidado (sífilis congênita, partos cesáreos e rastreamento de câncer de colo uterino). Verificou-se, ainda, um potencial aumento das demandas ao SUS (envelhecimento da população e redução da cobertura da saúde suplementar) e aumento das despesas em saúde em contexto de redução do PIB per capita.

Abstract This article presents the results of an analysis of the performance of primary health care in São Paulo state over the last decade against a backdrop of financial crisis and health funding cuts. We conducted a time series analysis (2010-2019) of performance indicators across the following dimensions based on an adapted conceptual framework: health service performance, health system, and determinants of health. Annual percentage change was calculated for each indicator using a log-linear model. Performance across the indicators was generally positive; however, there was a decline in performance across indicators of quality of care (congenital syphilis, cesarean section rate and cervical cancer screening). The findings also show a potential rise in demand for public services (due to population aging and a reduction in the percentage of the population with private health insurance) and increase in health expenditure against a backdrop of falling GDP per capita.

Time trends of avoidable deaths in Brazil, 1996 to 2019 / Tendência temporal das mortes evitáveis no Brasil, 1996 a 2019

Introduction: The known achievements of the Brazilian Unified Health System (SUS) stand out in an adverse context. This makes it necessary to examine the effect of the SUS on the population's health, using indicators such as deaths by avoidable causes. Objective: To describe the time trends of mortality from avoidable causes in Brazil and to compare them to those of non-avoidable causes. Methods: Ecological time-series study with official mortality data, during years 1996-2019, in the age group 5-74 years. Time trends in mortality were estimated as the annual percent reduction in mortality rates, and the impact of the SUS was calculated as the difference in trend between avoidable (immunopreventable, infectious and noncommunicable diseases, maternal and external causes) and non-avoidable causes. The analyses consisted of multivariable binomial regression models, by quadrennium. Results: Death rates for each avoidability group remained stable or declined throughout the study period. The probability of a positive impact was greater than 90% for immunopreventable diseases throughout the study period; infectious diseases in 1996-2003 and 2016-2019; noncommunicable diseases in 1996-2003 and 2008-2019; maternal causes in 1996-1999; and external causes in 1996-2007. This probability was less than 10% for maternal deaths in 2016-2019; and external causes in 2008-2015. Conclusion: The SUS has had a positive impact in reducing deaths from immunopreventable, infectious and noncommunicable diseases in Brazil, although not so much for maternal and external causes.

Introdução: As conhecidas conquistas do Sistema Único de Saúde (SUS) se destacam num cenário adverso. Isso torna necessário examinar o efeito do SUS na saúde da população, usando indicadores como as mortes por causas evitáveis. Objetivo: Descrever as tendências temporais de mortalidade por causas evitáveis no Brasil e compará-las às tendências por causas não evitáveis. Métodos: Estudo ecológico de série temporal com dados oficiais de mortalidade, durante os anos 1996-2019, na faixa etária dos 5-74 anos. As tendências temporais de mortalidade foram estimadas como a redução percentual anual nas taxas de mortalidade, e o impacto do SUS foi calculado como a diferença de tendência entre causas evitáveis (doenças imunopreveníveis, infecciosas ou não transmissíveis, mortes maternas, causas externas) e não evitáveis. As análises consistiram em modelos de regressão binomial multivariável, por quadriênio. Resultados: A taxa de mortalidade permaneceu igual ou diminuiu para todos os grupos de causas de morte. A probabilidade de um impacto positivo foi maior do que 90% para as doenças imunopreveníveis ao longo de todo o período de estudo; doenças infecciosas em 1996-2003 e 2016-2019; não transmissíveis em 1996-2003 e 2008-2019; mortes maternas em 1996-1999; e externas em 1996-2007. Essa probabilidade foi menor do que 10% para mortes maternas em 2016-2019; e causas externas em 2008-2015. Conclusão: O SUS tem tido um impacto positivo na redução de mortes por doenças sensíveis à imunização, infecciosas e não transmissíveis no Brasil, embora não tanto para mortes maternas e causas externas.

Tendência das taxas de internação por complicações de Diabetes Mellitus na população do município de Macaé, Rio de Janeiro, no período de 2011 a 2021

Objetivo: Avaliar a tendência das taxas de internação por complicações de Diabetes Mellitus na população de Macaé-Rio de Janeiro, 2011-2021. Métodos: Estudo ecológico de séries temporais das taxas de internação por complicações de Diabetes Mellitus na população de Macaé em 2011-2021. Os dados foram obtidos através do Sistema de Informações Hospitalares da plataforma do Datasus. Os modelos de regressão Joinpoint foram utilizados para estimar a tendência da taxa de internação. Resultados: A taxa de internação por complicações de Diabetes Mellitus por ano, de modo geral, foi maior no ano de 2016 e menor taxa no ano de 2020. Entre 2017 e 2021, verificou-seuma tendência significativa decrescente de -19,71% (Intervalo de Confiança -36,71; -9,73) das taxas de internação por complicações de Diabetes Mellitus. Conclusão: Houve uma redução acentuada nas taxas durante a pandemia, o que pode ser devido à subnotificação no registro de internações

Assessment of intervention measures on trihalomethane in finished water by interrupted time series analysis / 环境与职业医学

Background The Qingcaosha Reservoir is facing issues of algal blooms and eutrophication, and the resulting increase in the level of chlorination disinfection by-products in the water has been a major concern. Objective To evaluate the impact of "Algae Monitoring and Control Program in Qingcaosha Reservoir" (hereinafter referred to as the program) on the control of trihalomethanes (THMs) in conventional finished water. Methods From 2011 to 2019, water samples were collected from the Lujiazui Water Plant once per season, one sample each time, and the concentrations of four THMs (trichloromethane, dichlorobromomethane, monochlorodibromomethane, and tribromomethane) were measured in the samples. Using 2014 when the program was implemented as a cut-off point, the entire study period was divided into two phases: pre-implementation (2011–2013) and post-implementation(2014–2019). Segmented linear regression with interrupted time series analysis was applied to assess the concentrations and trends of THMs in the finished water before and after the program launch. Results The concentration of total THMs in finished water increased by 1.561 µg·L−1 (P=0.010) for each season of time extension before launching the program. The change in the concentration of total THMs in finished water was not statistically significant after the program launch, but the THMs concentration showed a decreasing trend as the slope was −0.626 (P=0.001). From 2017 until the end of 2019, the average concentration of THMs in finished water of Lujiazui Water Plant dropped to 10 μg·L−1 or less. Conclusions The algae and eutrophication control measures in Qingcaosha Reservoir have achieved good results, controlling THMs in finished water at a low level, and the trend of THMs has changed from a yearly increase pattern before the program to a yearly decrease pattern after the program.

Risk factors of supplementary injection after foam sclerotherapy for varicose veins of lower extremities and its impact on blood coagulation function / 实用医学杂志

Objective To explore the risk factors of supplementary injection after foam sclerotherapy for varicose veins of lower extremities and its impact on blood coagulation function.Methods A total of 185 patients with varicose veins of lower limbs diagnosed in the First People's Hospital of Zunyi from January 2018 to December 2021 were selected.The corresponding pathological data were collected,and the D-dimer,thrombin time,and fibrinogen level of patients were detected 1 d before and 1 d after the surgery.The postoperative video phone follow-up lasted until 6 months after the surgery.The patients were divided into single treatment group and supple-mentary treatment group according to whether supplementary injection of foam sclerosing agent was needed during the follow-up.Propensity matching on the data between the two groups was conducted,and the correlation between disease course data,coagulation factors,and the occurrence of supplementary injection was analyzed.A time series model for the incidence of supplementary injection was established,and the therapeutic effect and complica-tions were observed.Results After propensity matching,there was still significant difference in the degree of lesion between the two groups(P<0.05).On the first day after surgery,there was significant difference in the D-dimer and fibrinogen groups between the two groups(P<0.05),and but no significant difference in thrombin time(P>0.05).The occurrence of supplementary injection was significantly correlated with D-dimer,fibrinogen,thrombin time,and first-time injection dose(P<0.05),and the incidence of supplementary injection was higher in patients who received first-time injection in January,August,September,and December.Both groups achieved successful treatment 6 months after surgery,and there was no significant difference in the incidence of compli-cations.Conclusion Patients with lower limb varicose veins of C3/C4 are more likely to require supplementary injection compared to patients with other levels.The level of D-dimer and fibrinogen at 1 d after surgery is positively correlated with the occurrence of supplementary injection,while the dose of the first injection is negatively corre-lated with the occurrence of supplementary injection.

Impact of ambient ozone exposure on death from cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases in Minhang District, Shanghai / 环境与职业医学

Background Ozone (O3) pollution has gradually become a primary problem of air pollution in recent years. Conducting epidemiological studies on the correlation between O3 concentration variation and risk of cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases can provide reference data for O3 risk assessment and related policy making. Objective To quantitatively evaluate the effects of O3 exposure on mortalities of cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases among residents in Minhang District, Shanghai. Methods Data of mortalities of cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases, air pollutants, and meteorological factors in Minhang District of Shanghai from January 1, 2016 to December 31, 2021 were collected. Associations between O3 concentration and the mortalities due to total cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases, coronary heart disease, and stroke were analyzed by generalized additive models with a quasi Poisson distribution with different lag patterns, such as current day effect (lag0), single-day lag effects (lag1-lag3), and cumulative lag effects (lag01-lag03). The subgroup analyses of age, sex, and season were conducted. Furthermore, temperature was divided into low, middle, and high levels based on the 25th percentile (P25) and the 75th percentile (P75) to perform hierarchical analyses. Increased excess risks (ER) of death from target diseases caused by a 10 µg·m−3 increase in daily maximum 8 h concentration of O3 (O3-8 h) and their 95% confidence intervals (CI) were used to indicate the effects of O3. Results The associations between O3 and the risks of death from cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases were statistically significant at lag2, lag3, lag02, and lag03 (P<0.05), with the greatest effect size observed at lag03. The ER values of death from cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases in general population, male residents, and people aged 65 years and older, from coronary heart disease in male residents, and from stroke in general population increased by 1.02% (95%CI: 0.36%, 1.69%), 1.40% (95%CI: 0.47%, 2.34%), 0.87% (95%CI: 0.19%, 1.55%), 1.96% (95%CI: 0.49%, 3.44%), and 1.02% (95%CI: 0.07%, 1.98%) for a 10 µg·m−3 increase in O3-8 h concentration at lag03, respectively. During the warm season (from April 1 to September 30), the ER values of death from cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases and coronary heart disease per 10 µg·m−3 increase in O3 were 1.18% (95%CI: 0.33%, 3.33%) and 2.69% (95%CI: 0.39%, 5.03%), while the O3 effect was only statistically significant on cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases during the cold season (from October 1 to March 31 next year). At the middle and high temperature levels, the ER values of death from cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases increased by 1.63% (95%CI: 0.32%, 2.96%) and 1.14% (95%CI: 0.17%, 2.12%) respectively. The two-pollutant models showed similar results after including other pollutants (carbon monoxide, nitrogen dioxide, sulfur dioxide, fine particulate matter, or inhalable particulate matter). Conclusion Ambient O3 pollution may increase the mortality risks of cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases, coronary heart disease, and stroke in Minhang District of Shanghai.

Evaluation of the implementation effectiveness of the medication pathway in the orthopedic department of a tertiary hospital under DRG payment / 中国药房

OBJECTIVE To provide reference for improving the disease diagnosis related groups （DRG） payment reform， promoting refined hospital operation and management and rational drug use. METHODS Taking the orthopedic department of our hospital （the Third Affiliated Hospital of Anhui Medical University） as the research object， based on evidence-based medicine， a medication clinical pathway （hereinafter referred to as medication pathway） for DRG diseases in this department was constructed and implemented. All patients who met the DRG disease were included in the medication path management， and the patients in the same DRG disease group were treated with the same treatment method. Segmented regression model （SRM） was adopted to analyze the effects of medication pathway on the medical service capacity， efficiency and quality of our hospital. RESULTS During the implementation of medication pathway， significant decreases were observed in average length of hospital stay， cost per hospitalization， the proportion of medication expenses， medication cost per hospitalization and defined daily dose； the proportion of medical service revenue and the qualified rate of medical orders significantly increased （P＜0.05）. After the implementation of medication pathway， the average length of hospital stay and defined daily dose continued to decrease， and the qualified rate of medical orders also continued to significantly increase （P＜0.05）. CONCLUSIONS The implementation of medication pathway enhances the quality of medical services， improves operational efficiency， reduces medical expenses， and contributes to the development of a refined hospital management system.

Analysis on the incidence trend of pulmonary tuberculosis before and after the COVID-19 in Hotan , Xinjiang , from 2015 to 2021 / 安徽医科大学学报

Objective @#To analyze the incidence characteristics and trends in pulmonary tuberculosis in the Hotan prefecture , before and after the epidemic , and to provide a reference basis for the formulation and evaluation of tuberculosis prevention and control measures in the Hotan prefecture . @*Methods @#The Hotan prefecture ’s pulmonary tuberculosis incidence data was collected between 2015 and 2021 . Joinpoint regression (JPR) model and Interrupted Time Series (ITS) model were established to explore the incidence trend of pulmonary tuberculosis , as well as the impact of COVID-19 prevention and control measures in Xinjiang on the incidence trend in Hotan , respectively. Furthermore , an analysis of variations in incidence among different age and gender subgroups was carried out. @*Results@#The results of the JPR model showed that from 2015 to 2021 , the reported incidence rate of pulmonary tuberculosis in the Hotan prefecture initially increased and then decreased , with a turning point appearing in December 2018 . The incidence rate in males was slightly higher than that in females , and the turning point and incidence trend were consistent with the overall trend . Among all age subgroups , those ≥60 age group had the highest incidence rate , with the trend also showing an initial increase followed by a decrease . A turning point in the incidence rate for the under 18 age group appeared in June 2021 , yet the trend was not statistically significant (P > 0. 05) .The turning points in the 19 - 59 age group and in those aged ≥60 were consistent with the overall trend . The results of the ITS model showed that the incidence rate of pulmonary tuberculosis in the Hotan prefecture significantly decreased since January 2020 , dropping from 319. 28 per 100 000 in 2019 to 155 . 88 per 100 000 in 2021 , a decrease of 51 . 16% year-on-year , with a monthly average reduction of 0. 049 per 100 000 .@*Conclusion @# In 2018 ,Xinjiang province integrated tuberculosis screening into the universal health checkup for the entire population ,which led to the identification of numerous cases of tuberculosis . In the Hotan prefecture , the reported incidence of pulmonary tuberculosis peaked in December 2018 and then started to decline . Under the impact of COVID-19 isolation measures in Xinjiang , the reported incidence rate showed a notable decrease starting in January 2020 . Reiterating preventive measures and remaining watchful for the possible appearance of latent tuberculosis patients is crucial as the pandemic fades .

Research progress on dental materials for preventing root caries / 口腔疾病防治

@#The high incidence and untreated rate of root caries, a common and frequently occurring oral disease with challenging treatment in elderly individuals, is the main cause of tooth loss among elderly people, as rapid development results in pulpitis and periapical periodontitis or residual crown and root, which has been regarded as one of the common chronic oral diseases seriously affecting the quality of life of elderly people. Thus, early intervention and prevention are important. Traditional dental materials for preventing root caries have been widely used in clinical practice; however, they have the disadvantages of tooth coloring, remineralization and low sterilization efficiency. A series of new dental materials for preventing root caries have gradually become a research hotspot recently, which have the advantages of promoting the mineralization of deep dental tissue, prolonging the action time and enhancing adhesion. Future caries prevention materials should be designed according to the characteristics of root surface caries and the application population and should be developed toward simplicity, high efficiency and low toxicity. This review describes current research regarding anti-caries prevention material application, serving as a theoretical underpinning for the research of root caries prevention materials, which is important for both promotion in the effective prevention of root caries and improvement in the status of oral health and the quality of life among old people.

Prediction of brucellosis incidence in Urumqi / 公共卫生与预防医学

Objective To explore the application of seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model in the prediction of brucellosis in Urumqi, and to use this model to predict the incidence trend of brucellosis in Urumqi. Methods The monthly incidence data of brucellosis in Urumqi from January 2010 to December 2021 were selected to construct the ARIMA prediction model. The prediction effect of the model was evaluated by mean standard deviation (RMSE) and mean absolute error (MAE). The monthly incidence of brucellosis in Urumqi in 2022 was predicted by the constructed model. Results The incidence of brucellosis in Urumqi had obvious seasonal distribution, and the cases were concentrated from May to July. ARIMA(1,1,1)(1,0,1)12 was the optimal prediction model, with RMSE=0.883 and MAE=5.24. The monthly incidence of brucellosis in Urumqi in 2022 was predicted to be 7, 4, 4, 6, 9, 9, 10, 7, 7, 5, 5, and 5 cases, respectively. Conclusion ARIMA model can well fit and predict the monthly incidence of brucellosis in Urumqi and provide a basis for the monitoring and prevention of brucellosis.

Association between temperature and mortality: a multi-city time series study in Sichuan Basin, southwest China

BACKGROUND@#There are few multi-city studies on the association between temperature and mortality in basin climates. This study was based on the Sichuan Basin in southwest China to assess the association of basin temperature with non-accidental mortality in the population and with the temperature-related mortality burden.@*METHODS@#Daily mortality data, meteorological and air pollution data were collected for four cities in the Sichuan Basin of southwest China. We used a two-stage time-series analysis to quantify the association between temperature and non-accidental mortality in each city, and a multivariate meta-analysis was performed to obtain the overall cumulative risk. The attributable fractions (AFs) were calculated to access the mortality burden attributable to non-optimal temperature. Additionally, we performed a stratified analyses by gender, age group, education level, and marital status.@*RESULTS@#A total of 751,930 non-accidental deaths were collected in our study. Overall, 10.16% of non-accidental deaths could be attributed to non-optimal temperatures. A majority of temperature-related non-accidental deaths were caused by low temperature, accounting for 9.10% (95% eCI: 5.50%, 12.19%), and heat effects accounted for only 1.06% (95% eCI: 0.76%, 1.33%). The mortality burden attributable to non-optimal temperatures was higher among those under 65 years old, females, those with a low education level, and those with an alternative marriage status.@*CONCLUSIONS@#Our study suggested that a significant association between non-optimal temperature and non-accidental mortality. Those under 65 years old, females, and those with a low educational level or alternative marriage status had the highest attributable burden.

Writing case report and case series for family and community medicine practice

@#<p style="text-align: justify;" data-mce-style="text-align: justify;">Case reports remain to be an essential part of knowledge generation in health care. It is a research design that involves writing about a patient’s illness with either an unusual, new, unexpected, or unique characteristic. It can be about new findings, a novel diagnostic test, unfamiliar adverse events or innovative medical and surgical interventions. It is a detailed description of a patient’s course of illness including symptoms, physical examination findings, laboratory results, treatment modalities and outcomes. The essential element of writing a case report or series is to contribute to the generation of new knowledge. Wellwritten manuscripts have a valuable purpose in medicine as they present new illness, unexpected effects of treatment, novel diagnostic exams or unforeseen patients’ outcomes. The sections of a case report include an Abstract, Introduction or Background, Case Presentation [history, physical examinations, investigations or laboratories, differential diagnosis (if relevant), treatment (if relevant), outcome/follow-up, Discussion, Learning points/Take home messages, Patients perspectives and References. Manuscripts written as case reports or case series by nature of their design are not required to get approval from an Ethics Review Board (ERB). However, there should be an institutional process to clear and register papers. Case reports or a case series has its own distinctive writing components and features as not all single or series of clinical cases are reportable. This article aimed to define case reports/series, describe the different parts, how to write and evaluate a case report manuscript using the CARE guidelines.</p>

Rapid Manual Drainage of Ascites in a Home Visit Setting

Abdominal paracentesis is a standard intervention for symptom relief in patients with ascites; however, there is no established agreement regarding the optimal speed of ascites drainage. This paper presents three cases of rapid manual drainage of ascites (RMDA) conducted during home visits: a 72 year-old male with intractable cirrhosis, a 73 year-old male with malignant ascites secondary to cancer of the pancreatic tail, and a 54 year-old male suffering from malignant ascites due to pancreatic tail cancer with hepatic metastases. Drainage volumes ranged from 1.4 to 3 liters, with procedures taking between 12 to 14 minutes. Post-procedure systolic blood pressures were maintained above 90 mmHg at immediate, 2 (±1) hours, and 24 (±12) hours following the procedure in all cases. No severe adverse events were reported. RMDA may offer a reduced procedural time in the home visit context, lessening patient discomfort and healthcare provider costs. Further studies are needed to evaluate the safety of RMDA in home care settings.

Prevalence status and model analysis of type 2 diabetes death in Urumqi / 公共卫生与预防医学

Objective To analyze the epidemiological characteristics and trends of type 2 diabetes death in Urumqi from 2017 to 2022, and to provide a theoretical basis for formulating diabetes prevention and control policies. Methods The crude mortality rate, standardized mortality rate, annual percentage change (APC), dynamic series and other indicators of 2 177 death data of type 2 diabetes collected in Urumqi from 2017 to 2022 were statistically analyzed. At the same time, the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) prediction model was used to establish a model based on the death data from January 1, 2017 to June 30, 2022, to predict the monthly number of type 2 diabetes death in the second half of 2022, and compare it with the actual value to evaluate the model fitting effect. Results From 2017 to 2022, the mortality rate of type 2 diabetes in Urumqi reached 13.46/100 000, and the standardized mortality rate was 11.78/100 000. There was a significant difference in APC results for male mortality (P<0.05). The mortality rate of type 2 diabetes increased with age, and the mortality rate was higher in men than in women before the age of 70, and conversely, female mortality was higher than male. Retirees, married people, and people with junior high school education or below had higher mortality rates than others. The results of the standardized mortality dynamic series showed that the average rate of development in men was higher than that in the general population and women. By establishing the optimal ARIMA (0,1,1) prediction model, the model fit was qualified, while the accuracy would need to be improved. Conclusion From 2017 to 2022, the mortality rate of type 2 diabetes in Urumqi has an increasing trend. In order to realize the Healthy China Action, it is necessary to focus on health publicity and education for the elderly in the jurisdiction, prevent the occurrence of type 2 diabetes comorbidities, and reduce the mortality rate of type 2 diabetes.

Distribuição de óbitos devido ao câncer do colo do útero nos municípios de extrema pobreza, Brasil, 2000 a 2018 / Distribution of deaths due to cervical cancer in extreme poverty municipalities, Brazil, from 2000 to 2018

Resumo Introdução: O câncer do colo uterino (CCU) permanece uma importante causa de morte nas regiões mais pobres do mundo. Objetivo: Analisar tendências da distribuição relativa de óbitos por CCU ocorridos nos municípios de extrema pobreza (EP) do Brasil, de 2000 a 2018. Método: A distribuição relativa de óbitos por CCU nos municípios de EP foi avaliada em relação ao total de óbitos observados em cada Unidade Federativa (UF). Uma modelagem autorregressiva foi usada para avaliar as tendências temporais da distribuição relativa de óbitos de 2000 a 2018. Resultados: De 2000 a 2018, houve 94.065 óbitos por CCU no Brasil, e 10,7% deles ocorreram nos municípios de EP. Seis estados (Amazonas, Roraima, Pará, Amapá, Tocantins e Mato Grosso do Sul) tiveram 100% dos seus municípios de EP reportando a ocorrência desses óbitos. As tendências na distribuição de óbitos nos municípios de EP em relação ao total de óbitos de cada UF seguiram em elevação em onze estados brasileiros. Conclusões: O CCU é doença prioritária das políticas públicas do Brasil, e as tendências desses óbitos observadas nos municípios mais pobres apontam que mais atenção deve ser dada a estas unidades de análise, a fim de melhorar a saúde das pessoas mais pobres.

Abstract Background: Cervical cancer (CC) remains a major cause of death in the poorest regions of the world. Objective: To analyze trends in relative distribution of CC deaths occurred in extreme poverty municipalities, Brazil, from 2000 to 2018. Method: The relative distribution of CC deaths occurred in extreme poverty municipalities was evaluated in relation to total number of CC deaths observed in each Federative Unit (FU). An autoregressive modeling was used to assess the temporal trends in the death distribution, 2000-2018. Results: From 2000 to 2018, there were 94,065 CC deaths, and 10.7% of them were recorded in extreme poverty municipalities. There were six states (Amazonas, Roraima, Pará, Amapá, Tocantins, and Mato Grosso do Sul) with 100.0% of extreme poverty municipalities reporting the occurrence of these deaths. The trends of death distribution in extreme poverty municipalities in relation to the total of deaths in each FU followed in increasing trends in eleven Brazilian FU. Conclusions: CC is a disease prioritized by public policies in Brazil, and the trends of these deaths observed in the poorest municipalities point out that more attention should be given to these units of analysis, in order to improve the health of the poorest people.

Iniquidade racial na mortalidade por câncer de colo de útero no Brasil: estudo de séries temporais de 2002 a 2021 / Racial iniquity in mortality from cervical cancer in Brazil: a time trend study from 2002 to 2021

Resumo O objetivo desse artigo é analisar séries temporais da mortalidade por câncer de colo do útero segundo raça/cor no Brasil de 2002 a 2021. Estudo ecológico de séries temporais com dados do Sistema de Informação sobre Mortalidade e informações populacionais do IBGE. Variações anuais das taxas de mortalidade ajustadas por idade de mulheres de 20 anos ou mais foram estimadas pelo modelo de regressão linear simples com correção de Prais-Winsten. Foram registrados 133.429 óbitos por câncer de colo de útero, destes, 51,2% foram de mulheres negras. As mulheres negras morrem mais e têm menor queda do coeficiente. Houve aumento da desigualdade racial ao longo dos anos. Em 2002, ocorriam 0,08 óbitos/100 mil mulheres a mais na população negra comparada com a população branca; em 2021 esse número é de aproximadamente 1 óbito. Para a elaboração de políticas de saúde da mulher devem ser consideradas as diferenças raciais na implementação de estratégias e metas.

Abstract This ecological study examined time series, from 2002 to 20121, of age-adjusted coefficients of cervical cancer mortality, in Brazil, in women aged 20 years or more, by race. The information sources were Brazil's mortality information system (Sistema de Informação sobre Mortalidade - SIM) and the official bureau of statistics (Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística - IBGE). Annual changes in age-adjusted mortality rates were calculated using the Prais-Winsten linear regression method. Black women die more and the rate is decreasing less. Racial inequality has increased over the years. In 2002, there were 0.08 more deaths per 100,000 women in the black population than among white women; in 2021, the number was one death. Health policymaking should consider racial differences in the implementation of strategies and goals.

Tendência da taxa de mortalidade por câncer de mama em mulheres com 20 anos ou mais no Brasil, 2005-2019 / Trend in breast cancer mortality rate among women aged 20 years or older in Brazil, 2005-2019

Resumo O objetivo é analisar a tendência da taxa de mortalidade por câncer de mama e sua correlação com o status de desenvolvimento socioeconômico no Brasil. Estudo ecológico de séries temporais realizado nos 26 estados, Distrito Federal e regiões do Brasil. As fontes de dados foram o Sistema de Informação sobre Mortalidade (número de óbitos), o Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística (população residente) e o estudo da Carga Global de Doenças (socio-demographic index - SDI). Foram usados dados de 2005 a 2019. A tendência foi analisada pelos modelos de regressão de Prais-Winsten. A relação entre a taxa de mortalidade e o SDI foi analisada pelo coeficiente de correlação de Spearman. No período do estudo ocorrerem 207.683 óbitos por câncer de mama. A taxa padronizada de mortalidade média foi de 19,95 óbitos por 100.000 mulheres no Brasil. O Brasil e todas as regiões apresentaram tendência crescente da mortalidade. Do total de estados, 22 apresentaram tendência crescente. Verificou-se relação positiva entre a taxa de mortalidade e o SDI. A taxa de mortalidade padronizada por câncer de mama apresentou tendência crescente no Brasil, em todas as regiões e na maioria das unidades da federação. Verificou-se associação direta entre mortalidade e SDI, indicando maior magnitude em regiões mais desenvolvidas.

Abstract The aim is to analyze the trend in breast cancer mortality rates and its correlation with the socioeconomic development status in Brazil. It involved an ecological time series study carried out in the 26 units of the federation, Federal District and regions of Brazil. Data sources included the Mortality Information System (number of deaths), the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (resident population) and the study of the Global Burden of Disease (Socio-demographic Index - SDI). Data from 2005 to 2019 were used. The trend was analyzed using Prais-Winsten regression models. The relationship between the mortality rate and the SDI was analyzed using Spearman's correlation coefficient. During the study period, 207,683 deaths from breast cancer occurred. The average standardized mortality rate was 19.95 deaths per 100,000 women in Brazil. All the regions of Brazil showed an increasing trend in mortality. Of the total federative units, 22 showed an increasing trend. There was a positive relationship between the mortality rate and the SDI. The standardized mortality rate for breast cancer showed an increasing trend in Brazil, in all regions and in most states. There was a direct association between mortality and SDI, indicating a greater magnitude in more developed regions.

Temporal trend in the incidence of tuberculosis-HIV coinfection in Brazil, by macro-region, Federative Unit, sex and age group, 2010-2021 / Tendencia temporal de la incidencia de coinfección tuberculosis-VIH en Brasil, por macrorregión, Unidad Federativa, sexo y grupo de edad, 2010-2021 / Tendência temporal da incidência de coinfecção tuberculose-HIV no Brasil, por macrorregião, Unidade da Federação, sexo e faixa etária, 2010-2021

ABSTRACT Objective To analyze the temporal trend in the incidence of tuberculosis-HIV coinfection in Brazil, by macro-region, Federative Unit, sex and age group, from 2010 to 2021. Methods: This was a time series study using surveillance data to estimate average annual percentage changes (AAPC), and 95% confidence intervals (95%CI) via joinpoint regression. Results: 122,211 cases of tuberculosis-HIV coinfection were analyzed; a falling trend was identified for Brazil as a whole (AAPC = -4.3; 95%CI -5.1;-3.7), and in the country's Southern (AAPC = -6.2; 95%CI -6.9;-5.5) and Southeast (AAPC = -4.6; 95%CI -5.6;-3.8) regions, even more so during the COVID-19 pandemic (2020-2021); the greatest falling trend was seen in Santa Catarina (AAPC = -9.3; 95%CI -10.1;-8.5), while the greatest rising trend was found in Tocantins (AAPC = 4.1; 95%CI 0.1;8.6); there was a rising trend among males, especially in Sergipe (AAPC = 3.9; 95%CI 0.4;7.9), and those aged 18 to 34 years, especially in Amapá (AAPC = 7.9; 95%CI 5.1;11.5). Conclusion The burden and trends of tuberculosis-HIV coinfection were geographically and demographically disparate.

RESUMEN Objetivo Analizar la tendencia temporal de la incidencia de la coinfección tuberculosis-VIH en Brasil, por Macrorregión, Unidad Federativa, sexo y grupo de edad, 2010-2021. Métodos Estudio de series de tiempo, con datos de vigilancia para la estimación de cambios porcentuales anuales promedio (CPAP) e intervalos de confianza del 95% (IC95%) vía joinpoint regression. Resultados Se analizaron 122.211 casos de coinfección tuberculosis-VIH; se identificó tendencia decreciente en Brasil (CPAP = -4,3; IC95% -5,1;-3,7) y en las regiones Sur (CPAP = -6,2; IC95% -6,9;-5,5) y Sudeste (CPAP = -4,6; IC95% -5,6;-3,8), aumentando durante la pandemia de covid-19; mayor tendencia decreciente ocurrió en Santa Catarina (CPAP = -9,3; IC95% -10,1;-8,5) y creciente en Tocantins (CPAP = 4,1; IC95% 0,1;8,6); hubo tendencia al aumento en el sexo masculino, especialmente Sergipe (CPAP = 3,9; IC95% 0,4;7,9), y en los de 18 a 34 años, especialmente Amapá (CPAP = 7,9; IC95% 5,1;11,5). Conclusión Había disparidades territoriales y demográficas en la carga y las tendencias de la coinfección tuberculosis-VIH.

RESUMO Objetivo Analisar a tendência temporal da incidência da coinfecção tuberculose-HIV no Brasil, por macrorregião, Unidade da Federação, sexo e faixa etária, 2010-2021. Métodos Estudo de séries temporais, com dados de vigilância, para a estimativa de variações percentuais anuais médias (VPAM) e intervalos de confiança de 95% (IC95%), por joinpoint regression. Resultados Foram analisados 122.211 casos de coinfecção tuberculose-HIV; identificou-se tendência decrescente no país (VPAM = -4,3; IC95% 5,1;-3,7) e em suas regiões Sul (VPAM = -6,2; IC95% -6,9;-5,5) e Sudeste (VPAM = -4,6; IC95% -5,6;-3,8), acentuada durante a pandemia de covid-19 (2020-2021); observou-se maior tendência decrescente em Santa Catarina (VPAM = -9,3; IC95% -10,1;-8,5) e maior tendência crescente no Tocantins (VPAM = 4,1; IC95% 0,1;8,6); houve tendência de incremento no sexo masculino, destacando-se Sergipe (VPAM = 3,9; IC95% 0,4;7,9), e na faixa etária de 18-34 anos, sobressaindo-se o Amapá (VPAM = 7,9; IC95% 5,1;11,5). Conclusão Verificaram-se disparidades territoriais e demográficas na carga e nas tendências da coinfecção tuberculose-HIV.

Temporal trends in vaccination coverage in the first year of life in Brazil / Tendência temporal das coberturas vacinais no primeiro ano de vida no Brasil

ABSTRACT Objective: The aim of this study was to analyze the temporal trends in vaccination coverage (VC) during the first year of life of children in Brazil. Methods: Data on VC for the first year of life from 2011 to 2020 for Bacille Calmette-Guerin (BCG), hepatitis B, polio, pentavalent, and triple viral vaccines at the national, regional, and state levels were obtained from the Information System of the National Immunization Program. Trends were analyzed using Prais-Winsten generalized linear regression models and average annual percent change (APC) estimates. Results: Decreasing trends were observed for the BCG (APC −3.58%; p<0.05), pentavalent (APC −4.10%; p<0.05), polio (APC −2.76%; p<0.05), and triple viral (APC −2.56%; p<0.05) vaccines in the country. Hepatitis B vaccine was the only vaccine that displayed stationary behavior (APC −4.22%; p>0.05). During the study period, no increasing trends were observed in any territory or vaccine. Conclusions: This study shows a recent significant reduction and decreasing trends in VC during the first year of life of children in Brazil, indicating the need for interventions to curb this ongoing phenomenon and to recover acceptable VC rates in the country.

RESUMO Objetivo: Analisar a tendência temporal da cobertura vacinal (CV) em crianças com idade menor ou igual a um ano no Brasil. Métodos: Foram empregados dados da CV no primeiro ano de vida de 2011 a 2020 referentes às vacinas BCG, hepatite B, poliomielite, pentavalente e tríplice viral, obtidos do Sistema de Informação do Programa Nacional de Imunizações (SI-PNI). Os dados estão agregados em nível nacional, regional e estadual. Para a análise de tendência foi utilizado o modelo de regressão linear generalizado de Prais-Winsten e foi calculada a variação percentual média anual (APC). Resultados: As tendências de CV para as vacinas BCG (APC −3,58%; p<0,05), pentavalente (APC −4,10%; p<0,05), poliomielite (APC −2,76%; p<0,05) e tríplice viral (APC −2,56%; p<0,05) foram decrescentes no país. Apenas para a CV da vacina contra hepatite B foi identificado comportamento estacionário (APC −4,22%; p>0,05). Nenhum território ou vacina apresentou tendência crescente para cobertura vacinal no período estudado no Brasil. Conclusões: Este estudo alerta sobre a redução expressiva das CV no primeiro ano de vida nos últimos anos no Brasil e sua tendência decrescente, sendo imperativa a adoção de intervenções com o fim de frear o fenômeno em curso e de resgatar níveis aceitáveis de CV no país.

Characterization of cases and epidemiological and operational indicators of leprosy: analysis of time series and spatial distribution, Piauí state, Brazil, 2007-2021 / Caracterización de casos e indicadores epidemiológicos y operativos de la lepra: análisis de series temporales y distribución espacial, Piauí, Brasil, 20072021 / Caracterização de casos e indicadores epidemiológicos e operacionais da hanseníase: análise de séries temporais e distribuição espacial, Piauí, 2007-2021

ABSTRACT Objective To analyze epidemiological characteristics, temporal trends and spatial distribution of leprosy cases and indicators in the state of Piauí, 2007-2021. Methods This was an ecological time-series study using data from the Notifiable Health Conditions Information System, describing the spatial distribution and the temporal trend of leprosy using Prais-Winsten regression. Results A total of 17,075 new cases of leprosy were reported. There was a falling trend in the overall detection rate [annual percentage change (APC) = -6.3; 95%CI -8.1;-4.5)], detection in children under 15 years of age (APC = -8,6; 95%CI -12,7;-4,3) and detection of cases with grade 2 physical disability (APC = -4,4; 95%CI -7,0;-1,8). There was a rising trend in the proportion of multibacillary cases. Spatial distribution of the average detection rate identified hyperendemic areas in the Carnaubais, Entre Rios, Vale dos Rios Piauí e Itaueiras regions. Conclusion High leprosy detection rates were found, despite the falling trend of indicators, except the proportion of multibacillary cases.

RESUMEN Objetivo Analizar características epidemiológicas, tendencias temporales, distribución espacial de casos y indicadores de lepra en el estado de Piauí, 2007-2021. Métodos Estudio ecológico de series temporales con datos del Sistema de Información de Enfermedades de Notificación que describen la distribución espacial y la tendencia temporal de la lepra mediante la regresión de Prais-Winsten. Resultados Se notificaron 17.075 nuevos casos de lepra. Hubo tendencia decreciente en las tasas de detección general [variación porcentual anual (VPA) = -6,3; IC95% -8,1; -4,5], detección en menores de 15 años (VPA = -8,6; IC95% -12,7; -4,3), y detección de casos con discapacidad física grado 2 (VPA = -4,4; IC95%-7,0; -1,8). Hubo una tendencia creciente en la proporción de casos multibacilares. La distribución espacial de la tasa promedio de detección identificó áreas hiperendémicas en las regiones de Carnaubais, Entre Rios, Vale dos Rios Piauí y Itaueiras. Conclusión Se observaron altas tasas de detección de lepra, a pesar de la tendencia decreciente de los indicadores, excepto la proporción de casos multibacilares

RESUMO Objetivo Analisar características epidemiológicas, tendência temporal, distribuição espacial de casos e indicadores da hanseníase no estado do Piauí, 2007-2021. Métodos Estudo ecológico de séries temporais com dados do Sistema de Informação de Agravos de Notificação, descrevendo a distribuição espacial e a tendência temporal da hanseníase pela regressão de Prais-Winsten. Resultados Foram notificados 17.075 novos casos de hanseníase. A distribuição espacial da taxa média de detecção identificou áreas hiperendêmicas nas regiões Carnaubais, Entre Rios, Vale dos Rios Piauí e Itaueiras. Verificou-se tendência decrescente nas taxas de detecção geral [variação percentual anual (VPA) = -6,3; IC95% -8,1;-4,5], de detecção em menores de 15 anos (VPA = -8,6; IC95%12,7;-4,3) e de detecção de casos com grau 2 de incapacidade física (VPA = -4,4; IC95%-7,0;1,8), e tendência crescente na proporção de casos multibacilares. Conclusão Observaram-se elevadas taxas de detecção de hanseníase, apesar da tendência decrescente dos indicadores, exceto a proporção de casos multibacilares.