Análise qualitativa sobre a atuação e as experiências dos enfermeiros na gestão hospitalar frente à COVID-19 / Qualitative analysis of nurses' performance and experiences in hospital management in the face of COVID-19

Resumo Objetivou-se analisar a atuação dos enfermeiros na gestão hospitalar frente à COVID-19. O estudo teve uma abordagem qualitativa, do tipo descritivo e exploratório. O cenário foi um hospital que se transformou totalmente para atendimento de pacientes com COVID-19. No momento da coleta de dados, dez enfermeiros estavam à frente da gestão dos serviços, e todos participaram da entrevista semiestruturada. Os dados, após análise temática, foram apresentados em três categorias representativas dos elementos da tríade de Donabedian, ou seja, estrutura, processo e resultado. A categoria 1 realçou a reconfiguração da estrutura hospitalar a partir da gestão de materiais e das pessoas; a categoria 2 abordou a reestruturação do processo de trabalho para alcance das metas com segurança e qualidade; e a categoria 3 focou nas experiências dos enfermeiros na descrição dos resultados alcançados e esperados. A análise evidenciou a importância do trabalho em equipe, do envolvimento e da adaptação do gestor diante dos desafios da doença nova e ameaçadora da vida, dos recursos escassos e da complexidade das relações humanas na crise. Na liderança transformacional esses enfermeiros incentivaram a mudança de comportamento, o crescimento profissional, e resiliência.

Abstract This study aimed to analyze the role of nurses in hospital management in the face of COVID-19. The study had a qualitative, descriptive, and exploratory approach. The setting was a hospital that was completely transformed to care for patients with COVID-19. At the time of data collection, ten nurses managed the services, and all participated in the semi-structured interview. After thematic analysis, the data were presented in three categories, representing the elements of Donabedian's triad: structure, process, and result. Category 1 highlighted the hospital structure reconfiguration based on material and people management; category 2 addressed the work process restructuring to achieve goals with safety and quality; and category 3 focused on nurses' experiences in describing the results achieved and expected. The analysis highlighted the importance of teamwork, involvement, and adaptation of managers in the face of the challenges of a new and life-threatening disease, scarce resources, and the complexity of human relationships in the crisis. In transformational leadership, these nurses encouraged behavior change, professional growth, and resilience.

Development and validation of a diagnostic prediction model for severe periventricular-intraventricular hemorrhage in newborns: insights from a retrospective analysis utilizing the MIMIC-III database

Abstract Objective: Periventricular-intraventricular hemorrhage is the most common type of intracranial bleeding in newborns, especially in the first 3 days after birth. Severe periventricular-intraventricular hemorrhage is considered a progression from mild periventricular-intraventricular hemorrhage and is often closely associated with severe neurological sequelae. However, no specific indicators are available to predict the progression from mild to severe periventricular-intraventricular in early admission. This study aims to establish an early diagnostic prediction model for severe PIVH. Method: This study was a retrospective cohort study with data collected from the MIMIC-III (v1.4) database. Laboratory and clinical data collected within the first 24 h of NICU admission have been used as variables for both univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses to construct a nomogram-based early prediction model for severe periventricular-intraventricular hemorrhage and subsequently validated. Results: A predictive model was established and represented by a nomogram, it comprised three variables: output, lowest platelet count and use of vasoactive drugs within 24 h of NICU admission. The model's predictive performance showed by the calculated area under the curve was 0.792, indicating good discriminatory power. The calibration plot demonstrated good calibration between observed and predicted outcomes, and the Hosmer-Lemeshow test showed high consistency (p = 0.990). Internal validation showed the calculated area under a curve of 0.788. Conclusions: This severe PIVH predictive model, established by three easily obtainable indicators within the NICU, demonstrated good predictive ability. It offered a more user-friendly and convenient option for neonatologists.

A prediction model for coronary artery abnormalities in children with Kawasaki disease older than 5 years

Abstract Objective: Reliably prediction models for coronary artery abnormalities (CAA) in children aged > 5 years with Kawasaki disease (KD) are still lacking. This study aimed to develop a nomogram model for predicting CAA at 4 to 8 weeks of illness in children with KD older than 5 years. Methods: A total of 644 eligible children were randomly assigned to a training cohort (n = 450) and a validation cohort (n = 194). The least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) analysis was used for optimal predictors selection, and multivariate logistic regression was used to develop a nomogram model based on the selected predictors. Area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), calibration curves, Hosmer-Lemeshow test, Brier score, and decision curve analysis (DCA) were used to assess model performance. Results: Neutrophil to lymphocyte ratio, intravenous immunoglobulin resistance, and maximum baseline z-score ≥ 2.5 were identified by LASSO as significant predictors. The model incorporating these variables showed good discrimination and calibration capacities in both training and validation cohorts. The AUC of the training cohort and validation cohort were 0.854 and 0.850, respectively. The DCA confirmed the clinical usefulness of the nomogram model. Conclusions: A novel nomogram model was established to accurately assess the risk of CAA at 4-8 weeks of onset among KD children older than 5 years, which may aid clinical decisionmaking.

Ajuste fino de un modelo de producción vocal para estimar el estrés de impacto utilizando un método metaheurístico

Introducción: En modelos de producción vocal que emplean estructuras de resorte-masa-amortiguador, la precisión en la determinación de coeficientes de amortiguamiento que se asemejen a las características fisiológicas de las cuerdas vocales es crucial, teniendo en cuenta posibles variaciones en la representación de la viscoelasticidad. Objetivo: Este estudio tiene como objetivo realizar un ajuste paramétrico de un modelo de producción vocal basado en un sistema de resorte-masa-amortiguador que incorpora interacción con la presión subglótica, con el fin de modelar de manera precisa las fuerzas de colisión ejercidas por las cuerdas vocales durante la fonación. Método: Se utilizó un algoritmo de búsqueda metaheurística para la síntesis paramétrica. El algoritmo se aplicó a los coeficientes de elasticidad c1 y c2, así como a los coeficientes de amortiguamiento ε1 y ε2, que se correlacionan directamente con las matrices de masa del modelo. Esto facilita el ajuste de la composición de las cuerdas para lograr un comportamiento fisiológico deseado. Resultados: El comportamiento del sistema vocal para cada ciclo de simulación se comparó con un estándar predefinido en condiciones normales. El algoritmo determinó el punto final de la simulación evaluando las discrepancias entre características clave de las señales obtenidas y las deseadas. Conclusión: El ajuste paramétrico permitió la aproximación del comportamiento fisiológico de la producción vocal, proporcionando estimaciones de las fuerzas de impacto experimentadas por las cuerdas vocales durante la fonación.

Introduction: In vocal production models employing spring-mass-damper frameworks, precision in determining damping coefficients that align with physiological vocal fold characteristics is crucial, accounting for potential variations in the representation of viscosity-elasticity properties. Objective: This study aims to conduct a parametric fitting of a vocal production model based on a mass-spring-damper system incorporating subglottic pressure interaction, with the purpose of accurately modeling the collision forces exerted by vocal folds during phonation. Method: A metaheuristic search algorithm was employed for parametric synthesis. The algorithm was applied to elasticity coefficients c1 and c2, as well as damping coefficients ε1 and ε2, which directly correlate with the mass matrices of the model. This facilitates the adjustment of fold composition to achieve desired physiological behavior. Results: The vocal system's behavior for each simulation cycle was compared to a predefined standard under normal conditions. The algorithm determined the simulation endpoint by evaluating discrepancies between key features of the obtained signals and the desired ones. Conclusion: Parametric fitting enabled the approximation of physiological vocal production behavior, providing estimates of the impact forces experienced by vocal folds during phonation.

La orientación vocacional en la Escuela de Iniciación Deportiva Escolar

La investigación se dirigió a resolver insuficiencias teóricas y metodológicas, relacionadas con la orientación vocacional hacia la carrera de Cultura Física, en el proceso formativo del estudiante preuniversitario de la Escuela de Iniciación Deportiva Escolar, pues el modelo de bachiller en este tipo de centros establece la necesidad de lograr una sólida preparación integral en los estudiantes, desde la formación docente y deportiva. Se planteó como objetivo elaborar una estrategia, sustentada en un modelo pedagógico, que contribuya a la orientación vocacional de los estudiantes preuniversitarios de la Escuela de Iniciación Deportiva Escolar hacia la carrera de Cultura Física. La población estuvo conformada por 102 estudiantes de décimo grado y 72 profesores. Se emplearon métodos y técnicas científicas como el histórico-lógico, analítico-sintético, inductivo-deductivo, sistémico-estructural-funcional, modelación, observación participante y estructurada, análisis de documentos, evaluación por criterio de expertos, encuesta, talleres de opinión crítica y construcción colectiva, además de los métodos matemático-estadísticos. Los fundamentos del modelo pedagógico propiciaron resolver la contradicción entre las exigencias del modelo ideal explícito en los Programas Integrales de Preparación para el Deportista y las limitaciones de los profesores para desarrollar la orientación vocacional hacia esta Carrera. El modelo y la estrategia fueron sometidos a valoración, mediante criterio de expertos y ciclos de talleres de opinión crítica y construcción colectiva, los resultados permitieron confirmar transformaciones positivas en el tratamiento a la orientación vocacional del estudiante preuniversitario hacia la carrera de Cultura Física.

A pesquisa teve como objetivo solucionar insuficiências teóricas e metodológicas relacionadas à orientação vocacional para uma carreira na Cultura Física, no processo formativo do aluno pré-universitário da Escola de Iniciação Esportiva Escolar, uma vez que o modelo de bacharelado nesse tipo de centro estabelece a necessidade de alcançar uma sólida preparação integral nos alunos, a partir do ensino e do treinamento esportivo. O objetivo foi elaborar uma estratégia, baseada em um modelo pedagógico, que contribuísse para a orientação vocacional dos alunos pré-universitários da Escola de Iniciação Esportiva para uma carreira na Cultura Física. A população foi composta por 102 alunos da décima série e 72 professores. Foram utilizados métodos e técnicas científicos, tais como histórico-lógico, analítico-sintético, indutivo-dedutivo, sistêmico-estrutural-funcional, modelagem, observação participante e estruturada, análise de documentos, avaliação por critérios de especialistas, pesquisa, oficinas de opinião crítica e construção coletiva, além de métodos matemático-estatísticos. Os fundamentos do modelo pedagógico ajudaram a resolver a contradição entre as exigências do modelo ideal explícito nos Programas Integrais de Preparação do Atleta e as limitações dos professores no desenvolvimento da orientação vocacional para essa carreira. O modelo e a estratégia foram submetidos à avaliação, por meio de critérios de especialistas e ciclos de oficinas de opinião crítica e construção coletiva, e os resultados permitiram confirmar transformações positivas no tratamento da orientação vocacional do aluno pré-universitário para a carreira da Cultura Física.

The research was aimed at resolving theoretical and methodological insufficiencies, related to the vocational orientation towards the Physical Culture career, in the training process of the pre-university student of the School Sports Initiation School, since the high school model in this type of centers establishes the need to achieve a solid comprehensive preparation in students, from teaching and sports training. The objective was to develop a strategy, supported by a pedagogical model, that contributes to the vocational orientation of pre-university students from the School of School Sports Initiation Schools towards the Physical Culture career. The population was made up of 102 tenth grade students and 72 teachers. Scientific methods and techniques were used such as historical-logical, analytical-synthetic, inductive-deductive, systemic-structural-functional, modeling, participant and structured observation, document analysis, evaluation by expert criteria, survey, critical opinion workshops and collective construction, in addition to mathematical-statistical methods. The foundations of the pedagogical model helped resolve the contradiction between the demands of the ideal model explicit in the Comprehensive Preparation Programs for Athletes and the limitations of teachers to develop vocational orientation towards this Career. The model and strategy were subjected to evaluation, through expert criteria and cycles of critical opinion and collective construction workshops, the results allowed confirming positive transformations in the treatment of the vocational orientation of the pre-university student towards the Physical Culture career.

La táctica como fundamento esencial en el proceso de preparación del futbolista

El fútbol es un deporte de oposición, cooperación, donde se interrelacionan las estructuras y las funciones específicas que lo rigen, de carácter eminentemente táctico y de ahí la necesidad que tienen los jugadores de relacionarse para organizarse colectivamente con eficacia en las situaciones ofensivas, defensivas, y las transiciones de ambas acciones, las cuales van a surgir el resto de capacidades técnicas, físicas, de teóricas y psicológicas según las necesidades de la idea de juego. Esta investigación, enmarcada en el proceso de preparación táctica de la selección provincial de fútbol de mayores de Pinar del Río, tuvo objetivo determinar el estado en que se encuentra la preparación táctica de los jugadores según el modelo de juego planificado para enfrentar el torneo nacional y definir la metodología de entrenamiento sustentada en los sistemas modernos de preparación fundamentado en el componente táctico como dimensión rectora en el proceso. Con la utilización de métodos teóricos, empíricos, y de nivel estadístico, se guía todo el proceso de la investigación a través de observaciones a entrenamientos, entrevistas y mediciones del comportamiento táctico en partidos oficiales, con lo cual se pudo corroborar en los resultados alcanzados una serie de insuficiencias y limitaciones tácticas en las dimensiones e indicadores valorados que denota que problemas en la preparación para la competencia.

O futebol é um esporte de oposição, cooperação, onde as estruturas e funções específicas que o regem estão inter-relacionadas, de natureza eminentemente tática e daí a necessidade de os jogadores se relacionarem entre si para se organizarem coletivamente de forma eficaz em situações ofensivas e defensivas, e as transições de ambas as ações, que darão origem ao resto das capacidades técnicas, físicas, teóricas e psicológicas de acordo com as necessidades da ideia de jogo. Esta pesquisa, enquadrada no processo de preparação tática da equipe de futebol sênior provincial de Pinar del Río, teve como objetivo determinar o estado da preparação tática dos jogadores de acordo com o modelo de jogo planejado para enfrentar o torneio nacional e definir a metodologia de treinamento com base nos modernos sistemas de preparação baseados no componente tático como uma dimensão orientadora no processo. Com a utilização de métodos teóricos, empíricos e estatísticos, todo o processo da pesquisa foi orientado por meio de observações em sessões de treinamento, entrevistas e medições do comportamento tático em jogos oficiais, com os quais foi possível corroborar nos resultados alcançados uma série de insuficiências e limitações táticas nas dimensões e indicadores avaliados que denotam problemas na preparação para a competição.

Soccer is a sport of opposition and cooperation, where the specific structures and functions that govern it are interrelated, of an eminently tactical nature and hence the need for players to relate to organize themselves collectively effectively in offensive, defensive, and the transitions of both actions, from which the rest of the technical, physical, theoretical and psychological capacities will emerge according to the needs of the game idea. This research, framed in the tactical preparation process of the provincial senior soccer team of Pinar del Río, had the objective of determining the state of the tactical preparation of the players according to the game model planned to face the national tournament and define the training methodology supported by modern preparation systems based on the tactical component as a guiding dimension in the process. With the use of theoretical, empirical, and statistical methods, the entire research process is guided through observations of training, interviews, and measurements of tactical behavior in official matches, with which it was possible to corroborate in the results achieved a series of insufficiencies and tactical limitations in the valued dimensions and indicators that denote problems in preparation for the competition.

Prediction of Prognostic Features Based on Neutrophil-Related Genes for Lung Squamous Cell Carcinoma Reveals Immune Landscape and Drug Candidates

ABSTRACT Background: Since to the prognosis of lung squamous cell carcinoma is generally poor, there is an urgent need to innovate new prognostic biomarkers and therapeutic targets to improve patient outcomes. Objectives: Our goal was to develop a novel multi-gene prognostic model linked to neutrophils for predicting lung squamous cell carcinoma prognosis. Methods: We utilized messenger RNA expression profiles and relevant clinical data of lung squamous cell carcinoma patients from the Cancer Genome Atlas database. Through K-means clustering, least absolute shrinkage and selection operator regression, and univariate/multivariate Cox regression analyses, we identified 12 neutrophil-related genes strongly related to patient survival and constructed a prognostic model. We verified the stability of the model in the Cancer Genome Atlas database and gene expression omnibus validation set, demonstrating the robust predictive performance of the model. Results: Immunoinfiltration analysis revealed remarkably elevated levels of infiltration for natural killer cells resting and monocytes in the high-risk group compared to the low-risk group, while macrophages had considerably lower infiltration in the high risk group. Most immune checkpoint genes, including programmed cell death protein 1 and cytotoxic T-lymphocyte-associated antigen 4, exhibited high expression levels in the high risk group. Tumor immune dysfunction and exclusion scores and immunophenoscore results suggested a potential inclination toward immunotherapy in the "RIC" version V2 revised high risk group. Moreover, prediction results from the CellMiner database revealed great correlations between drug sensitivity (e.g., Vinorelbine and PKI-587) and prognostic genes. Conclusion: Overall, our study established a reliable prognostic risk model that possessed significant value in predicting the overall survival of lung squamous cell carcinoma patients and may guide personalized treatment strategies. (Rev Invest Clin. 2024;76(2):116-31)

Análisis Matemático no Lineal Relacionado a un Modelo de Insulina-Células Pancreáticas en Presencia de Epinefrina / Nonlinear Mathematical Analysis based on an Insulin-Pancreatic Cells Model in the Presence of Epinephrine

Resumen En este trabajo se estudia un modelo de ecuaciones diferenciales ordinarias no lineales que describe la relación entre la masa de células β y la secreción de epinefrina. Se analiza el impacto del estrés asociado como causante de incremento de los niveles de glucosa en el organismo. El análisis matemático se fundamenta en la aplicación de la teoría de control no lineal para definir la capacidad de carga máxima para cada variable de estado, estableciendo un dominio invariante positivo acotado a través del método de Localización de Conjuntos Compactos Invariantes (LCCI). El objetivo es determinar los efectos asociados a la secreción de epinefrina en el aumento de los niveles de glucosa en sangre; por lo tanto, los resultados de este análisis ayudan a definir las condiciones necesarias y suficientes en las que la epinefrina eleva los niveles de insulina y glucosa en presencia de células β. El interés por estudiar este tipo de enfermedades se enfoca en la búsqueda de un tratamiento o un análisis que garantice un control completo de los niveles de glucosa. El desarrollo y análisis matemático de este trabajo fortalece la investigación vigente de diabetes mellitus insulinodependiente entorno a factores críticos de epinefrina que implican un incremento de glucosa en el organismo.

Abstract In this work, a nonlinear model is studied based on ordinary differential equations that describe the relationship between the mass of β cells and the secretion of epinephrine. It analyzes the impact of stress associated with the cause of increased blood pressure and glucose levels in the body. The mathematical analysis is based on the appliance of the nonlinear control theory to define the maximum load capacity for each state variable, establishing a bounded positive invariant domain through the Localization of Compact Invariants Sets (LCIS) method. The objective is to determine the effects of epinephrine secretion on the increase of blood glucose levels; therefore, this analysis's results define the necessary and sufficient conditions in which epinephrine raises insulin and glucose levels in the presence of β cells. The interest in studying this type of disease focuses on searching for a treatment or an analysis that guarantees complete control of glucose levels. This work's development and mathematical analysis strengthen current research on insulin-dependent diabetes mellitus around critical epinephrine factors that imply an increase in glucose in the body.

Fotogrametría de modelos dentales de yeso / Photogrammetry of dental plaster models

El presente estudio busca definir los parámetros de la cámara fotográfica y encuadre de la imagen para generar fotografías estandarizadas a modelos dentales de yeso que permitan realizar mediciones intermaxilares a través de fotogrametría, y que estas distancias sean tan confiables y válidas como el registro físico. Se realizó medición directa de los modelos con compás de Korkhaus y medición indirecta a través de fotogrametría digital, evaluando si existía diferencia estadística entre ambas mediciones. Como resultado, no se observaron diferencias significativas entre el protocolo digital con un objetivo 100 mm y magnificación 1:4 en comparación con las mediciones directas, por lo que se concluye que con los parámetros seleccionados se logra una adecuada precisión en la fotogrametría respecto a la medición directa.

This study aims to compare the different parameters of the photographic camera with the digital image framing to standardize dental model photography, in order to take intermaxillary measurements through photogrammetry, and so that these distances are as reliable and valid as the physical record. Direct measurement of the models was made with a Korkhaus compass, and indirect measurement through digital photogrammetry, evaluating whether there was a statistical difference between both measurements. As a result, no significant differences were observed between the digital protocol with a 100 mm objective and 1:4 magnification and the direct measurements. It is concluded that with the selected parameters, adequate precision is achieved in photogrammetry, when compared to the direct measurement.

Factores que Afectan la Percepción de Dolor ¿Cómo Influyen en la Toma de Decisiones Clínicas durante el Proceso de Rehabilitación Kinesiológica? / Factors That Affect Pain Perception: How Do They Influence Clinical Decision Making During the Kinesiological Rehabilitation Process?

Introducción. La percepción del dolor es un fenómeno complejo y subjetivo. Comprender los factores que afectan en la percepción del dolor es crucial en el contexto de la toma de decisiones clínicas durante el proceso de rehabilitación kinesiológica. Objetivo. Exponer los factores que afectan la percepción del dolor, desde la perspectiva del modelo biopsicosocial y discutir sus implicancias para la toma de decisiones clínicas. Métodos. Se describen factores que afectan la percepción de dolor, separados en biológicos como la injuria, sexo, genética y edad, psicológicos como creencias, catastrofismo, kinesiofobia, afectividad negativa, calidad de sueño, atención, afrontamiento y autoeficacia; y socio-culturales como soporte social, rol de género, etnia, aculturación y estatus socioeconómico. Luego se discute cómo estos factores impactan en las decisiones clínicas del profesional kinesiólogo. Finalmente, se entregará un análisis de las barreras y facilitadores descritos por la literatura científica respecto al uso del modelo biopsicosocial.

Background. The perception of pain is a complex and subjective phenomenon. Thus, understanding the factors that influence pain perception is crucial in the context of clinical decision-making during the kinesic rehabilitation process. The objective of this article is to expose the factors that affect the perception of pain, from the perspective of the biopsychosocial model and discuss its implications for clinical decision making during this process. Initially, the biological, psychological and sociocultural factors that affect the perception of pain with the greatest presence in the scientific literature are described. It is discussed how these factors impact the clinical decisions of the kinesiologist professional. Finally, an analysis of the barriers and facilitators described by the scientific literature regarding the use of the biopsychosocial model will be provided.

Implementación de intervenciones que aborden las experiencias adversas en la infancia en atención primaria: una revisión exploratoria

Introducción: La vivencia de experiencias adversas en la infancia (EAI) se asocia a mayor riesgo de presentar conductas de riesgo y enfermedades crónicas a largo plazo. A nivel mundial, se han comenzado a pesquisar y abordar en las atenciones de salud. Sin embargo, en Chile aún no existe una sugerencia a nivel nacional para incorporarlo. El fin de este artículo es proveer de información y recomendaciones a la práctica clínica. Métodos: Se realizó una revisión exploratoria en PubMed, LILACS y PsycInfo usando el marco metodológico del Joanna Briggs Institute para identificar la literatura disponible sobre implementación de intervenciones en detección y abordaje de EAI dentro de un sistema de salud, con foco en atención infantil ambulatoria. Resultados: Se encontraron 34 estudios atingentes al tema, los que muestran que implementar mecanismos de detección y abordaje de EAI es factible y aceptable, tanto para el personal de salud como para los usuarios, pero debe ser realizado dentro de un modelo de cuidado que incorpore a las familias y comunidad, además de trabajar con los equipos en capacitación, gestión del cambio, implementación y evaluación. Conclusiones: La Atención Primaria de Salud (APS) resulta ser un lugar privilegiado para su implementación dada la cercanía y relación de confianza que se establece con las familias. Este estudio muestra que es posible implementar un modelo de detección y abordaje de EAI en APS, lo que resulta crucial dentro de su rol preventivo-promocional si se quiere generar un impacto en la salud de niños, niñas y adolescentes ahora y en el futuro.

Introduction: Adverse childhood experiences (ACEs) are associated with an increased risk of developing risky health behaviors and chronic diseases in the long term. Screening for ACEs is beginning to be implemented worldwide in healthcare settings due to their known impact on present and future health. However, in Chile, there are no recommendations to incorporate ACEs screening into usual care. Methods: A scoping review was conducted using the Joanna Briggs Institute methodological framework to identify available literature on the implementation of interventions aimed at the detection and management of ACEs within a health system, specifically pediatric primary care. The search included PubMed, LILACS, and PsycInfo databases. Results: A total of 34 studies were included. They show that screening for ACEs is feasible and acceptable for both health care providers and users. However, it must be implemented as a part of a model of care that considers families and communities, besides working with health teams in training, change management, implementation, and evaluation. Conclusions: Primary Health Care (PHC) is a privileged setting for screening implementation because of the longitudinal and trust relationships established with families. This study concludes that it is possible to implement a model for detecting and managing ACEs in PHC, which will be crucial for its promotional and preventive role if there is a desire to generate an impact on infant and adolescent health now and in the future.

Development and validation of a clinical prediction model for prognostic factors in patients with primary pontine hemorrhage

Abstract We aimed to develop a prognostic model for primary pontine hemorrhage (PPH) patients and validate the predictive value of the model for a good prognosis at 90 days. A total of 254 PPH patients were included for screening of the independent predictors of prognosis, and data were analyzed by univariate and multivariable logistic regression tests. The cases were then divided into training cohort (n=219) and validation cohort (n=35) based on the two centers. A nomogram was developed using independent predictors from the training cohort to predict the 90-day good outcome and was validated from the validation cohort. Glasgow Coma Scale score, normalized pixels (used to describe bleeding volume), and mechanical ventilation were significant predictors of a good outcome of PPH at 90 days in the training cohort (all P<0.05). The U test showed no statistical difference (P=0.892) between the training cohort and the validation cohort, suggesting the model fitted well. The new model showed good discrimination (area under the curve=0.833). The decision curve analysis of the nomogram of the training cohort indicated a great net benefit. The PPH nomogram comprising the Glasgow Coma Scale score, normalized pixels, and mechanical ventilation may facilitate predicting a 90-day good outcome.

Trend analysis of chronic kidney disease incidence and mortality in Chinese population based on age-period-cohort model / 公共卫生与预防医学

Objective To investigate the changing trend and epidemiological characteristics of the incidence and mortality of chronic kidney disease (CKD) with age, period and birth cohort in Chinese population. Methods Based on the data of incidence and mortality of CKD in Chinese population aged 20-80 years from 1990 to 2019 in GHDx database, joinpoint regression model was used to analyze the incidence and mortality trend of CKD. An age-period-cohort model was constructed to analyze the effects of age, period, and birth cohort on the trend of CKD incidence and mortality. Results Joinpoint regression analysis showed that the standardized incidence rate of chronic kidney disease in Chinese population increased from 146.37/100 000 in 1990 to 161.52/100 000 in 2019, while the standardized mortality rate decreased from 12.98/100 000 in 1990 to 11.23/100 000 in 2019. The APC model analysis showed that the risk of CKD incidence and death in the Chinese population increased with age, while the risk of CKD incidence increased with the increase of period. The risk of death did not change significantly with the increase of period. The cohort born later had a lower risk of CKD incidence and death compared to the cohort born earlier. Conclusion At present, the age effect and period effect of the incidence and death risk of chronic kidney disease in China are dominant. It is important to take effective measures and intervene in a timely manner, especially to strengthen the protection of older high-risk groups born earlier.

Research on the influence of meteorological factors on the incidence of foodborne diseases / 公共卫生与预防医学

Objective To explore the correlation between the incidence of foodborne diseases and meteorological factors in Jinan, and to provide targeted measures for the prevention and control of foodborne diseases. Methods Data from the reporting systems of two sentinel hospitals for active surveillance of foodborne diseases from 2013 to 2021 in Jinan were collected. The meteorological data in the same period in Jinan were also collected. The generalized additive model was used to explore the nonlinear relationship between meteorological factors and the incidence of foodborne diseases, and threshold function analysis was use to perform subsection regression. Results The incidence of foodborne diseases was positively correlated with daily average temperature (rs=0.23), relative humidity (rs=0.05), and daily average wind speed (rs=0.01), and negatively correlated with daily average air pressure (rs=-0.19). Based on the GAM results and segmented regression analysis of meteorological factors, it was found that when the daily average temperature was below or above the threshold of 24.63°C, for every 1°C increase in daily average temperature, the incidence of foodborne diseases correspondingly increased by 0.04% and 0.18%. When the daily average wind speed was above the threshold of 2.26 m/s, the incidence of foodborne diseases decreased by 0.36% for every 1 m/s increase in the daily average wind speed. Conclusion Nine years of observation and data analysis have shown that meteorological factors such as daily average temperature, relative humidity, air pressure, and wind speed are related to the incidence of foodborne diseases. These findings suggest that meteorological factors may be important factors leading to foodborne diseases, which provides an important scientific basis for formulating effective prevention and control measures.

Risk assessment of nosocomial infection in patients with multiple myeloma in the first hospitalization / 公共卫生与预防医学

Objective To assess the risk of nosocomial infection in patients with multiple myeloma during their first hospitalization. Methods Totally 480 patients with multiple myeloma who were hospitalized for the first time in department of hematology of West China Hospital, Sichuan University from August 2021 to August 2022 were included, and the nosocomial infection during treatment was statistically analyzed. The patients were divided into infected group and uninfected group. The independent influencing factors of nosocomial infection were analyzed and a prediction model was established. The reliability of the prediction model was analyzed by receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC). Results The incidence rate of nosocomial infection was 31.2% among 480 patients hospitalized for the first time. There were statistically significant differences in age, ISS staging, controlling nutritional status (CONUT) score, agranulocytosis, hemoglobin, and albumin between the infected group and the uninfected group (P<0.05). Logistic multivariate regression analysis showed that age, ISS staging, CONUT score, agranulocytosis, hemoglobin level, and albumin level were all independent correlated factors of nosocomial infection in patients with multiple myeloma hospitalized for the first time (P<0.05). The area under the ROC curve (AUC), sensitivity and specificity of multivariate logistic regression prediction model were 0.88 (95%CI: 0.840-0.920), 85.00% and 76.36%, respectively. Conclusion The incidence rate of nosocomial infection is high among patients with multiple myeloma in the first hospitalization. The prediction model established according to independent correlated factors of nosocomial infection has high predictive value on the occurrence of nosocomial infection.

Evaluation of A Liver Yin Deficiency Mouse Model Based on Untargeted Metabolomics / 中国实验方剂学杂志

ObjectiveBased on ultra performance liquid chromatography-quadrupole-time-of-flight tandem mass spectrometry（UPLC-Q-TOF-MS）， to evaluate the establishment of a mouse model of liver Yin deficiency by thyroid tablet suspension combined with 10% carbon tetrachloride（CCl4） from the perspective of non-targeted metabolomics， in order to lay the foundation for the establishment of a traditional Chinese medicine（TCM） syndrome model. MethodA total of 24 mice were randomly divided into blank group and model group. The model group was given thyroid tablet suspension（0.003 2 g·kg-1） by gavage for 14 consecutive days， and 10% CCl4（5 mL·kg-1） was intraperitoneally injected once a week to establish a liver Yin deficiency model， while the blank group was injected with an equal amount of olive oil intraperitoneally and gavaged with an equal amount of distilled water， and was fed with normal feed. After the modeling was completed， 6 mice in each group were randomly selected， the levels of alanine aminotransferase（ALT）， aspartate aminotransferase（AST）， cyclic adenosine monophosphate（cAMP）， cyclic guanosine monophosphate（cGMP）， interleukin（IL）-6， IL-10， tumor necrosis factor-α（TNF-α）were measured in the mice serum， and malondialdehyde（MDA）， superoxide dismutase（SOD）， total protein（TP）， hydroxyproline（HYP） and other indicators were measured in the mice liver. Liver tissue sections were taken for hematoxylin-eosin（HE） staining and observing pathological changes. The remaining 6 mice in each group were subjected to UPLC-Q-TOF-MS combined with principal component analysis（PCA） and orthogonal partial least squares-discriminant analysis（OPLS-DA） were used to screen differential metabolites in the liver Yin deficiency mouse model， Kyoto Encyclopedia of Genes and Genomes（KEGG） database was used to analyze the corresponding metabolic pathways of differential metabolites. ResultCompared with the blank group， mice in the model group showed liver Yin deficiency manifestations such as reduced body weight， fatigue and sleepiness， disheveled and lusterless hair， irritability. The levels of ALT， cAMP/cGMP， IL-6， AST， MDA， cAMP， TNF-α significantly increased（P<0.05， P<0.01）， while the levels of SOD， IL-10 and cGMP significantly decreased（P<0.05， P<0.01）， and the changes of HYP and TP were not statistically significant. Hepatic steatosis and distortion of the radial arrangement of the liver plate cells were seen in the section images of the model group， endogenous substances were clearly separated， and 252 differential metabolites were identified in the serum samples， which were mainly involved in the metabolic pathways of purine metabolism， steroid hormone biosynthesis and pyrimidine metabolism. A total of 229 differential metabolites were identified in the liver samples， mainly involving nucleotide metabolism， purine metabolism， steroid hormone biosynthesis， pyrimidine metabolism， antifolate resistance， insulin resistance， primary bile acid biosynthesis， prostate cancer， sulfur relay system， arachidonic acid metabolism and other metabolic pathways. ConclusionThe successful establishment of liver Yin deficiency model in mice by CCl4 combined with thyroid hormone is evaluated through the investigation of serum and liver metabolomics， combined with biochemical indicators， which provides a biological basis and experimental foundation for the Yin deficiency syndrome model of TCM.

Short-term effects of air pollutants on outpatient volume of respiratory diseases in Guiyang / 环境与职业医学

Background Affected by concentration, composition, and population tolerance of air pollutants, the relationship between air pollutants and population health has regional differences. There is still a research gap in Guiyang. Objective To explore the short-term effects of air pollutant concentrations in low-pollution areas on the outpatient volume of respiratory diseases. Methods Spearman correlation analysis was used to evaluate the correlation between air pollutants, meteorological factors, and respiratory outpatient volume from January 1, 2013 to December 31, 2020 in Guiyang City. A single pollutant distribution lag nonlinear model and a multi-pollutant interaction model were established based on Poisson distribution. A three-dimensional diagram was drawn to display the relationship between air pollutants and respiratory outpatient volume. Quantitative analysis was conducted on the attribution risk and lag effect of air pollutant concentration on outpatient volume of respiratory diseases in Guiyang City. Results The results of the single pollutant model showed that fine particulate matter (PM2.5), nitrogen dioxide (NO2), carbon monoxide (CO), and sulfur dioxide (SO2) elevated the outpatient volume of respiratory diseases. The maximum relative risk (RR) and 95%CI values of PM2.5, NO2,CO, and SO2 appeared on Day 2, 0, 5, and 6, respectively, which were 1.019 (1.015, 1.023), 1.146 (1.122, 1.171), 1.129 (1.116, 1.143), and 1.046(1.040, 1.052), respectively. For every quartile concentration increment of PM2.5, NO2, CO, or SO2, the outpatient volume of respiratory diseases increased by 0.943% (0.111%, 1.782%), 4.050% (3.573%, 4.529%), 0.595% (0.317%, 0.874%), or 0.667% (0.235%, 1.100%), respectively. The maximum RR (95%CI) of O3 was 1.015 (1.007, 1.023) and appeared on Day 0. The results of multi-pollutant model showed that PM2.5, NO2, CO, SO2, and O3 all elevated the outpatient volume of respiratory diseases. The maximum RR values of PM2.5, NO2, CO, SO2 and O3 appeared on Day 14, 0, 5, 7 and 0, respectively, which were 1.027 (1.021, 1.034), 1.213 (1.179, 1.248), 1.059 (1.043, 1.074), 1.016 (1.005, 1.026), and 1.024 (1.015, 1.033), respectively. Compared with the single pollutant model, the RR values of PM2.5, NO2, and O3 on the outpatient volume of respiratory diseases in the multi-pollutant model showed an upward trend, while the RR values of CO and SO2 in the multi-pollutant model showed a downward trend. Conclusion The impact of low concentrations of PM2.5, NO2, CO, and SO2 on human health cannot be ignored.

A postoperative in-hospital mortality risk model for elderly patients undergoing cardiac valvular surgery based on LASSO-logistic regression / 中国胸心血管外科临床杂志

@#Objective     To evaluate the risk factors for postoperative in-hospital mortality in elderly patients receiving cardiac valvular surgery, and develop a new prediction models using the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO)-logistic regression. Methods     The patients≥65 years who underwent cardiac valvular surgery from 2016 to 2018 were collected from the Chinese Cardiac Surgery Registry (CCSR). The patients who received the surgery from January 2016 to June 2018 were allocated to a training set, and the patients who received the surgery from July to December 2018 were allocated to a testing set. The risk factors for postoperative mortality were analyzed and a LASSO-logistic regression prediction model was developed and compared with the EuroSCOREⅡ. Results     A total of 7 163 patients were collected in this study, including 3 939 males and 3 224 females, with a mean age of 69.8±4.5 years. There were 5 774 patients in the training set and 1 389 patients in the testing set. Overall, the in-hospital mortality was 4.0% (290/7 163). The final LASSO-logistic regression model included 7 risk factors: age, preoperative left ventricular ejection fraction, combined coronary artery bypass grafting, creatinine clearance rate, cardiopulmonary bypass time, New York Heart Association cardiac classification. LASSO-logistic regression had a satisfying discrimination and calibration in both training [area under the curve (AUC)=0.785, 0.627] and testing cohorts (AUC=0.739, 0.642), which was superior to EuroSCOREⅡ. Conclusion     The mortality rate for elderly patients undergoing cardiac valvular surgery is relatively high. LASSO-logistic regression model can predict the risk of in-hospital mortality in elderly patients receiving cardiac valvular surgery.

Invasiveness assessment by CT quantitative and qualitative features of lung cancers manifesting ground-glass nodules in 555 patients: A retrospective cohort study / 中国胸心血管外科临床杂志

@#Objective     To explore the correlation between the quantitative and qualitative features of CT images and the invasiveness of pulmonary ground-glass nodules, providing reference value for preoperative planning of patients with ground-glass nodules. Methods    The patients with ground-glass nodules who underwent surgical treatment and were diagnosed with pulmonary adenocarcinoma from September 2020 to July 2022 at the Third Affiliated Hospital of Kunming Medical University were collected. Based on the pathological diagnosis results, they were divided into two groups: a non-invasive adenocarcinoma group with in situ and minimally invasive adenocarcinoma, and an invasive adenocarcinoma group. Imaging features were collected, and a univariate logistic regression analysis was conducted on the clinical and imaging data of the patients. Variables with statistical difference were selected for multivariate logistic regression analysis to establish a predictive model of invasive adenocarcinoma based on independent risk factors. Finally, the sensitivity and specificity were calculated based on the Youden index. Results     A total of 555 patients were collected. The were 310 patients in the non-invasive adenocarcinoma group, including 235 females and 75 males, with a meadian age of 49 (43, 58) years, and 245 patients in the invasive adenocarcinoma group, including 163 females and 82 males, with a meadian age of 53 (46, 61) years. The binary logistic regression analysis showed that the maximum diameter (OR=4.707, 95%CI 2.060 to 10.758), consolidation/tumor ratio (CTR, OR=1.027, 95%CI 1.011 to 1.043), maximum CT value (OR=1.025, 95%CI 1.004 to 1.047), mean CT value (OR=1.035, 95%CI 1.008 to 1.063), spiculation sign (OR=2.055, 95%CI 1.148 to 3.679), and vascular convergence sign (OR=2.508, 95%CI 1.345 to 4.676) were independent risk factors for the occurrence of invasive adenocarcinoma (P<0.05). Based on the independent predictive factors, a predictive model of invasive adenocarcinoma was constructed. The formula for the model prediction was: Logit(P)=–1.293+1.549×maximum diameter of lesion+0.026×CTR+0.025×maximum CT value+0.034×mean CT value+0.72×spiculation sign+0.919×vascular convergence sign. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of the model was 0.910 (95%CI 0.885 to 0.934), indicating that the model had good discrimination ability. The calibration curve showed that the predictive model had good calibration, and the decision analysis curve showed that the model had good clinical utility. Conclusion     The predictive model combining quantitative and qualitative features of CT has a good predictive ability for the invasiveness of ground-glass nodules. Its predictive performance is higher than any single indicator.

Establishment of a rat model with aortic dissection induced by β-aminopropionitrile combined with angiotensin Ⅱ / 中国胸心血管外科临床杂志

@#Objective    To investigate the optimal administration combination of β-aminopropionitrile (BAPN) and Angiotensin Ⅱ (Ang-Ⅱ) in the establishment of SD rat aortic dissection (AD) model and the related complications. Methods    Forty-two three-week-old male SD rats were randomly divided into 7 groups: a group A (0.25% BAPN), a group B (0.40% BAPN), a group C (0.80% BAPN), a group D [1 g/(kg·d) BAPN], a group E [1 g/(kg·d) BAPN+ 1 μg/(kg·min) saline], a group F [1 g/(kg·d) BAPN+1 μg/(kg·min) Ang-Ⅱ] and a group G (control group). There were 6 rats in each group. The intervention period was 4 weeks (groups E and F were 4 weeks+5 days). Rats were dissected immediately if they died during the experiment. After the intervention, the surviving rats were sacrificed by pentobarbital sodium, and the whole aorta was separated and retained. Hematoxylin-eosin staining was used to observe the changes of aorta from the pathological morphology. Results    There was no statistical difference in the survival rate among the groups after 4 weeks of BAPN intervention (P>0.05). After 5 days of mini-osmotic pumps implantation, the survival rate of rats was higher in the group E than that in the group F (P=0.008), and the incidence of AD in the group E was lower than that in the group F (P=0.001). BAPN could affect the food and water intake of rats. After BAPN intervention for 4 weeks, the body weight of rats in the group G was higher than those in the intervention groups (P<0.05). BAPN combined with Ang-Ⅱ could make the aortic intima thick, elastic fiber breakage, arrangement disorder, and inflammatory cell infiltration in rats, which conformed to the pathological and morphological changes of AD. BAPN could also affect mental state and gastrointestinal tract. Conclusion    The combination of BAPN [1 g/(kg·d)] and Ang-Ⅱ [1 μg/(kg·min)] can stably establish AD model in rats, which will provide a stable carrier for further study of the pathogenesis and therapeutic targets of AD. However, the complications in this process are an unstable factor. How to balance the influence of BAPN on other tissues and organs in the process of AD model establishment remains to be further studied.