Performance of cardiovascular risk scores in mortality prediction ten years after Acute Coronary Syndromes

ABSTRACT

SUMMARY BACKGROUND The objective of this study was to evaluate the performance of the Framingham risk score (FRS) and risk score by the American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association (SR ACC/AHA) in predicting mortality of patients ten years after acute coronary syndrome (ACS). METHODS This is a retrospective cohort study that included patients aged ≥ 18 years with ACS who were hospitalized at the Coronary Intensive Care Unit (ICU) of the Botucatu Medical School Hospital from January 2005 to December of 2006. RESULTS A total of 447 patients were evaluated. Of these, 118 were excluded because the mortality in 10 years was not obtained. Thus, 329 patients aged 62.9 ± 13.0 years were studied. Among them, 58.4% were men, and 44.4% died within ten years of hospitalization. The median FRS was 16 (14-18) %, and the ACC/AHA RS was 18.5 (9.1-31.6). Patients who died had higher values of both scores. However, when we classified patients at high cardiovascular risk, only the ACC/AHA RS was associated with mortality (p <0.001). In the logistic regression analysis, both scores were associated with mortality at ten years (p <0.001). CONCLUSIONS Both FRS and SR ACC/AHA were associated with mortality. However, for patients classified as high risk, only the ACC/AHA RS was associated with mortality within ten years.

RESUMO

RESUMO OBJETIVO Avaliar a performance do escore de risco de Framingham (ERF) e do escore proposto pela American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association (ER ACC/AHA) em predizer a mortalidade em pacientes dez anos após síndrome coronariana aguda (SCA). MÉTODOS Trata-se de um estudo de coorte retrospectivo que incluiu pacientes com idade ≥18 anos, com SCA, que estiveram internados na Unidade de Terapia Intensiva Coronariana (UTI) do Hospital das Clínicas de Botucatu, no período de janeiro de 2005 a dezembro de 2006. RESULTADOS Foram avaliados 447 pacientes. Destes, 118 foram excluídos, pois a mortalidade em dez anos não foi obtida. Logo, 329 pacientes com idade de 62,9±13,0 anos foram estudados. Dentre eles, 58,4% eram homens e 44,4% morreram no período de dez anos após a internação. A mediana do ERF foi de 16 (14-18)%, e do ER ACC/AHA foi 18,5 (9,1-31,6)%. Os pacientes que evoluíram a óbito apresentaram maiores valores dos escores. No entanto, quando classificamos os pacientes em alto risco cardiovascular, apenas o ER ACC/AHA foi associado com a mortalidade (p<0,001). Na análise de regressão logística, ambos os escores foram associados com a mortalidade em dez anos (p<0,001). CONCLUSÕES Tanto o ERF quanto o ER ACC/AHA foram associados com a mortalidade. No entanto, para os pacientes classificados como alto risco, apenas o ER ACC/AHA foi associado com a mortalidade em dez anos.