Long-term forecasts of the COVID-19 epidemic: a dangerous idea

Martinez, Edson Zangiacomi; Aragon, Davi Casale; Nunes, Altacílio Aparecido

Martinez, Edson Zangiacomi; Aragon, Davi Casale; Nunes, Altacílio Aparecido.

Martinez, Edson Zangiacomi; Universidade de São Paulo. Faculdade de Medicina de Ribeirão Preto. Ribeirão Preto. BR
Aragon, Davi Casale; Universidade de São Paulo. Faculdade de Medicina de Ribeirão Preto. Ribeirão Preto. BR
Nunes, Altacílio Aparecido; Universidade de São Paulo. Faculdade de Medicina de Ribeirão Preto. Ribeirão Preto. BR

Rev. Soc. Bras. Med. Trop ; 53: e20200481, 2020. graf

Article in English | SES-SP, ColecionaSUS, LILACS | ID: biblio-1136863

ABSTRACT

ABSTRACT

Abstract

INTRODUCTION:

Mathematical models have been used to obtain long-term forecasts of the COVID-19 epidemic.

METHODS:

The daily COVID-19 case count in two Brazilian states was used to show the potential limitations of long-term forecasting through the application of a mathematical model to the data.

RESULTS:

The predicted number of cases at the end of the epidemic and at the moment that the peak occurs, is highly dependent on the length of the time series used in the predictive model.

CONCLUSIONS:

Predictions obtained during the course of the COVID-19 pandemic need to be viewed with caution.

Subject(s)

Humans; Pneumonia, Viral/epidemiology; Coronavirus Infections/epidemiology; Coronavirus; Pandemics; Models, Statistical; Coronavirus Infections; Forecasting; Betacoronavirus

COVID-19; Coronavirus disease; Epidemiology; Forecasting; Statistical models

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Full text: Available Index: LILACS (Americas) Main subject: Pneumonia, Viral / Coronavirus Infections / Coronavirus / Pandemics Type of study: Prognostic study / Risk factors Limits: Humans Language: English Journal: Rev. Soc. Bras. Med. Trop Year: 2020 Type: Article Institution/Affiliation country: Universidade de São Paulo/BR

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