Extent to which low-level use of antiretroviral treatment could cure the AIDS epidemic in sub-Saharan Africa
Lancet
; 355(9221): 2095-2100, 2000.
Article
in En
| AIM
| ID: biblio-1264869
Responsible library:
CG1.1
ABSTRACT
Despite growing international pressure to provide HIV-1 treatment to less-developed countries; potential demographic and epidemiological impacts have yet to be characterised. We modelled the future impact of antiretroviral use in south Africa from 2000 to 2005. methods:
We produced a population projection model that assumed zero antiretroviral use to estimate the future demographic impacts of the HIV-1 epidemic. We also constructed four antiretroviral-adjusted scenarios to estimate the potential effect of antiretroviral use. We modelled total drug cost; cost per life-year gained; and the proportion of pe-person health-care expenditure required to finance antiretroviral treatment in each scenario.Findings:
With no antiretroviral use between 2000 and 2005; there will be about 276000 cumulative HIV-1-positive births; 2;302;000 cumulative new AIDS cases; and the life expectancy at birth will be 46.6 years by 2005. By contrast; 110;000 HIV-1-positive births could be prevented by short ourse antiretroviral prophylaxis; as well as a decline of up to 1 year of life expectancy. The direct drug costs of universal coverage for this intervention would be US$54 million - less than 0.001of the per-person health-care expenditure. In comparison; triple-combination treatment for 25of the HIV
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Index:
AIM
Main subject:
HIV
/
Drug Costs
/
Anti-Retroviral Agents
Type of study:
Prognostic_studies
Language:
En
Journal:
Lancet
Year:
2000
Type:
Article