Disease burden and mortality forecast of prostate cancer in Wuhan in 2010-2019 / 公共卫生与预防医学

ABSTRACT

Objective To analyze the data of prostate cancer in Wuhan from 2010 to 2019, understand the characteristics and trends of incidence, mortality, and YLL, and provide decision-making basis for Wuhan's cancer prevention and control strategies. Methods Data on deaths and incident cases of prostate cancer in Wuhan from 2010 to 2019 and from 2013 to 2017, respectively, were collected from the Wuhan Death Monitoring System. Indicators such as incidence rate, mortality rate, and years of life lost due to premature death (YLL) of prostate cancer in Wuhan were calculated using Excel 2016 and Python. The Bayesian Age-Period-Cohort Model (BAPC) was used to predict the mortality rate of prostate cancer in Wuhan from 2020 to 2024. The trend changes were described using the annual average percentage change (AAPC). Results From 2010 to 2019, the incidence, mortality, and YLL rates of prostate cancer in Wuhan showed an overall increasing trend (AAPC >0, P <0.05). The standardized mortality and incidence rates in the central urban area were significantly higher than those in the outer urban area, and the age group of 85 and above had the highest incidence and mortality rates. The age group of 0-54 had the largest increase in incidence and mortality rates. From 2020 to 2024, prostate cancer in Wuhan is expected to continue to increase slightly (an increase of 0.94%). Conclusion The incidence, mortality, and YLL rates of prostate cancer in Wuhan are showing an overall increasing trend, and this trend may continue. The characteristics are higher in the central urban area than in the outer urban area, and higher in the older age group than in the younger age group. Targeted measures need to be taken, and screening for high-risk populations should be strengthened.