Risk factors for prolonged length of stay in post-anesthesia care unit and development of a prediction model in patients undergoing radical esophagectomy / 中华麻醉学杂志

ABSTRACT

Objective:To identify the risk factors for prolonged length of stay in post-anesthesia care unit (PACU-LOS) and development of a prediction model in the patients undergoing radical esophagectomy.Methods:The medical records from patients of both sexes, aged 40-80 yr, of American Society of Anesthesiologists Physical Status classificationⅠ-Ⅲ, transferred to PACU with tracheal intubation after radical esophagectomy under general anesthesia in our hospital from January 2019 to December 2020, were retrospectively collected. The patient′s age, gender, American Society of Anesthesiologists Physical Status classification, smoking history, drinking history, history of non-thoracic surgery, history of hypertension, history of diabetes mellitus, preoperative anemia, respiratory diseases, doses of anesthetics, preoperative nerve block, intraoperative consumption of opioids and dexmedetomidine, operation method (thoracotomy and endoscopic surgery), operation time, usage of vascular drugs, bradycardia, hypotension, red blood cell infusion, plasma infusion, total infusion volume, blood loss and urine volume were collected. The extubation time in PACU, visual analog scale scores at rest at 10 min after extubation, consumption of rescue analgesics in PACU, hypoxemia after extubation, and occurrence of nausea and vomiting were also collected. Patients were divided into PACU-LOS normal group (PACU-LOS≤2 h) and PACU-LOS prolonged group (PACU-LOS>2 h) according to the PACU-LOS. Logistic regression analysis was used to identity the risk factors for prolonged PACU-LOS in the patients undergoing radical esophagectomy, and the predictive model was established and verified. The receiver operating characteristic curves were used to evaluate the model discrimination and Hosmer-Lemshow goodness-of-fit test was used to evaluate the consistency of the model.Results:A total of 943 patients were included in this study, and the incidence of prolonged PACU-LOS was 15.7%. The results of logistic regression analysis showed that chronic obstructive pulmonary disease ( OR=4.900, 95% confidence interval [ CI] 2.512-9.556), increasing age ( OR=22.154, 95% CI 6.736-73.003), prolonged time of extubation ( OR=1.214, 95% CI 1.174-1.256) and hypoxemia after extubation ( OR=4.891, 95% CI 2.167-11.039) were risk factors for prolonged PACU-LOS, and the preoperative use of nerve block ( OR=0.358, 95% CI 0.190-0.672) was a protective factor for prolonged PACU-LOS in the patients undergoing radical esophagectomy ( P<0.05). The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (95% CI) was 0.947 (0.925-0.963), the sensitivity was 0.878, and the specificity was 0.906. The internal validation of the prediction model was carried out using the receiver operating characteristic curve in the validation set, and the area under the curve (95% CI) was 0.942 (0.895-0.942, P<0.001) and the Youden index was 0.784. The line chart prediction model was developed. The prediction analysis model was verified by Hosmer-Lemshow test, P<0.001, and the C-index visualized line chart prediction model was 0.946. Conclusions:Preoperative chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, increasing age, prolonged time of extubation and hypoxemia after extubation are risk factors for prolonged PACU-LOS, and preoperative use of nerve block is a protective factor for prolonged PACU-LOS. The risk prediction model developed can effectively predict the occurrence of prolonged PACU-LOS in the patients undergoing radical esophagectomy.