Development and validation of a prognostic nomogram for locally advanced renal cell carcinoma patients after surgery / 现代泌尿外科杂志

ABSTRACT

【Objective】 To construct a nomogram survival prediction model for patients with locally advanced renal cell carcinoma based on SEER database (n=7893), so as to provide reference for future prognosis study. 【Methods】 Case data were downloaded from the SEER database, and divided into the experimental group and validation group with a ratio of 7∶3 by simple randomization.The clinical information was analyzed, independent risk factors influencing prognosis were screened, and the overall survival (OS) and tumor-specific survival (CSS) were mapped.Model performance was evaluated using consistency index, area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), internal and external validation, and calibration curves. 【Results】 Patients’ age, tumor size, disease progression tpye, TNM stage, number of positive lymph nodes, marital status and pathological type were significantly correlated with OS and CSS (P<0.01).Based on the above predictors, the internal verification AUC of the 1-, 3- and 5- year OS nomogram model was 0.809, 0.721 and 0.715, respectively.The internal validation AUC of the nomogram model for 1-, 3- and 5- year CSS was 0.802, 0.745 and 0.735, respectively.The external validation AUC of the OS nomogram model was 0.792, 0.628 and 0.620 at 1, 3 and 5 years, respectively, and the external validation AUC of CSS was 0.943, 0.803 and 0.737 at 1.3 and 5 years, respectively, showing good model differentiation and accuracy. 【Conclusion】 The prediction performance of the nomogram model is good, and it can provide reference for individualized treatment.