Study on the application of Rogerson Spatial Pattern Surveillance Method in real-time surveillance for infectious diseases / 中华流行病学杂志

ABSTRACT

Application of Rogerson Spatial Pattern Surveillance Method was discussed in real-time surveillance and early monitoring for infectious diseases. Theory of Rogerson Spatial Pattern Surveillance Method was introduced in detail. Data from the program on 'Monitoring epidemic cerebrospinal meningitis with Rogerson Spatial Pattern Surveillance Method' by the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention provided evidence as how to choose crucial parameters such as K, H, n0 and tau, how to simulate surveillance process and how to interpret results. Rogerson Spatial Pattern Surveillance Method seemed to be able to continuously monitor the changes of infectious diseases. New cases could be added to this model at any moment and this model could provide early warning information in time when the excess of cases occurred. Simultaneously it could provide the time and site of the extra cases. Rogerson Spatial Pattern Surveillance Method could implement dynamic and real-time surveillance for infectious diseases. Simultaneously it could avoid the problem of multiple tests that causing large type I error. It greatly helped in providing reliable information for controlling infectious diseases in early epidemic period. Hence,it had important value of application in early warning on infectious diseases.