Establishment of regression model of acute pancreatitis complicated with secondary multiple organs dysfunction syndrome for prediction and evaluating its efficacy / 中华急诊医学杂志

ABSTRACT

ObjectiveTo study the way for establishing prediction model of acute pancreatitis with secondary multiple organs dysfunction syndrome (MODS) in the early stage.MethodsThe linical data were collected from 113 hospitalized patients with acute pancreatitis admitted from October 2008 to October 2011.Some biomarkers within 48 h after the onset of acute pancreatitis were statistically analyzed by univariate and multivariate binary logistic regression analysis in order to establish the prediction model evaluated by the ROC curve. ResultsThere were statistically significant differences in lactate dehydrogenase ( LDH ),serum creatinine ( CR),serum albumin ( P ＜ 0.05 ) identified by univariate regression analysis.These independent risk factors in the regression model wereln (P/1 -P) =2.243 +0.002 × LDH + 0.014 × CR - 0.186 × ABL,likelihood ratio test ( x2 =66.46,P =0.000) ; in the ROC curve analysis:AUC 0.927 (95％ CI0.875 -0.980),the best cut- off value of the model predicting probability was 0. 177 (sensitivity 82. 14％,specificity 85.88％,correctly classified 84.96％ ).ConclusionsEfficient prediction model could be set up by the logistic regression analyzing the early risk factors in multiple organ dysfunction syndrome following acute pancreatitis.