Comparison of BISAP, Ranson's, APACHE Ⅱ and CTSI scores in evaluating the severity of acute pancreatitis / 中华消化外科杂志

ABSTRACT

Objective To investigate the value of the bedside index for severity in acute pancreatitis (BISAP),Ranson's,APACHE Ⅱ and computed tomography severity index (CTSI) scoring system in evaluating the severity of acute pancreatitis.Methods The clinical data of 385 patients with acute pancreatitis who were admitted to the Zhongnan Hospital of Wuhan University from 2005 to 2011 were retrospectively analyzed.The values of 4 scoring systems including BISAP,Ranson's,APACHE Ⅱ and CTSI in predicting the incidences of severe acute pancreatitis,local complications and death were investigated by Chi-square test and receiver operating characteristic curv e.Odds ratio (OR) was calculated.The differences of areas under the curves (AUC) were analyzed using the Z test.Results The incidences of severe acute pancreatitis,local complications and mortality of patients with BISAP score ≥ 3 were 64.4％ (56/87),16.1％ (14/87) and 8.0％ (7/87),which were significantly higher than 13.4％ (40/298),6.4％ (19/298) and 0.3 ％ (1/298) of patients with BISAP score ≤ 2 (x2 =93.4,8.1,19.7,P ＜ 0.05).The incidences of severe acute pancreatitis,local complications and mortality of patients with Ranson's score≥3 were 52.7％ (48/91),22.0％ (20/91) and 7.7％ (7/91),which were significantly higher than 16.3％ (48/294),4.4％ (13/294) and 0.3％ (1/294) of patients with Ranson's score ≤2 (x2 =49.2,27.3,18.5,P ＜0.05).The incidences of severe acute pancreatitis,local complications and mortality of patients with APACHE Ⅱ score ≥ 8 were 46.6％ (27/58),20.7％ (12/58) and 8.6％ (5/58),which were significantly higher than 21.1％ (69/327),6.4％ (21/327) and 0.9％ (3/327) of patients with APACHE Ⅱ score≤7 (x2 =17.0,12.8,14.4,P ＜0.05).The incidences of severe acute pancreatitis,local complications and mortality of patients with CTSI score ≥4 were 51.4％ (19/37),51.4％ (19/37),16.2％ (6/37),which were significantly higher than 22.2％ (77/347),4.0％ (14/347),0.6％ (2/347) of patients with CTSI score≤3 (x2 =15.1,95.3,40.1,P ＜ 0.05).The sensitivity,specificity,positive and negative predictive values of BISAP were 58％,89％,64％,86％,respectively,and the AUC was 0.848,which were significantly higher than the other 3 systems (Z =2.02,4.22,4.78,P ＜ 0.05).The sensitivity,specificity,positive and negative predictive values of CTSI were 58％,95％,51％ and 96％,respectively,and the AUC was 0.926,which was significantly higher than the other 3 systems (Z =3.99,3.24,4.06,P ＜ 0.05).The sensitivity,specificity,positive and negative predictive values of BISAP were 88％,79％,8％ and 100％,respectively,and the AUC was 0.855,with no significant difference compared with the other 3 systems (Z =0.81,0.03,0.14,P ＞ 0.05).Conclusions The accurate rate of BISAP in predicting the severe acute pancreatitis is higher than Ranson's,APACHE Ⅱ and CTSI.The accurate rate of CTSI in predicting the incidence of local complications is higher than the other 3 systems.There is no significant difference of the 4 systems in predicting the mortality.The BISAP scoring system is helpful in early diagnosis of severe acute pancreatitis,and making the individualized treatment plan,thus improving the prognosis of patients.