The value of the baseline MELD scores, MELD-Na scores and iMELD scores in short-tern prognosis in hepatitis B virus related acute-on-chronic liver failure patients / 中华危重病急救医学

ABSTRACT

Objective To explore the function of the baseline model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) scores,MELD-Na scores and iMELD scores in short-term prognosis in the initial treatment of hepatitis B virus (HBV) related acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) patients.Methods 232 HBV-related ACLF patients who received initial treatment in 302 Military Hospital of China from January 2011 to January 2013 were enrolled in this prospective clinical follow-up.The relationship between the baseline MELD scores,MELD-Na scores,iMELD scores and clinical outcomes were analyzed,and the value of these three models for short term prognosis was assessed.Results Finally the 12-week clinical follow-up was completed in 191 patients,with the completion rate of 82.33％.Eighty-five patients died,with the fatality rate of 44.50％.Compared with the survival group,in non-survival group,the baseline of MELD scores (26.65 ± 7.75 vs.21.19 ± 5.42,t=-5.720,P=0.000),MELD-Na scores (29.16 ± 11.35 vs.21.72 ± 6.33,t=-5.729,P=0.000),iMELD scores (47.19 ± 10.96 vs.38.02 ±7.01,t=-7.011,P=0.000),total bilirubin [TBil (μmol/L)374.3 ± 150.1 vs.305.5 ± 147.1,t=-3.182,P=0.002],creatinine [Cr (μmol/L)110.7 ±90.1 vs.71.1 ± 35.1,t=-4.157,P=0.000] and international normalized ratio (INR2.3 ± 0.9 vs.2.0 ± 0.6,t=-2.754,P=0.006) were significantly increased,but the baseline of serum Na+ (mmol/L132.8 ± 6.1 vs.136.7 ± 5.1,t=4.861,P=0.000) was significantly lowered.It was shown by Spearman correlation analysis thai the baseline MELD scores,MELD-Na scores and iMELD scores all had positive correlation with the short-term prognosis of patients (r value was 0.398,0.404,and 0.470,respectively,all P=0.000),the baseline of serum Na+ had a negative correlation with the short-term prognosis of patients (r=-0.365,P=0.000).It was shown by receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC curve) that the cut-off scores of the baseline of MELD scores,MELD-Na scores and iMELD scores were 25.07,25.43 and 43.11 respectively,and the area under ROC curve (AUC) of the baseline of MELD scores,MELD-Na scores and iMELD scores were 0.731,0.735 and 0.773,respectively.The sensitivity of the three models was 55.3％,57.7％,63.5％,and the specificity was 84.9％,84.0％,84.9％ respectively.The value of the three models had no difference in short-term prognostic prediction.According to the respective cut-off score,the three prediction models were divided into four groups,and all of them had differences in fatality rate on the whole (x2 for MELD scores was 34.740,P=0.000; x2 for MELD-Na scores was 36.861,P=0.000; x2 for iMELD scores was 50.127,P=0.000).The mortality was elevated gradually as the equation scores increased.Conclusion The baseline of MELD scores,MELD-Na scores and iMELD scores can predict well the short-term prognosis of the initial treatment in HBV-related ACLF patients,and have relatively good clinical value for guiding therapy.