Correlation analysis on meteorological factors regarding the incidence of hand, foot and mouth disease in Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region, 2011-2018 / 中华流行病学杂志

ABSTRACT

Objective@#To study the correlation between meteorological factors and the incidence of hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD) in Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region (Xinjiang) so as to provide scientific evidence for the early warning, prediction, prevention and control of HFMD.@*Methods@#Data on HFMD surveillance and related population was collected from the China Information System for Disease Control and Prevention from 2011 to 2018. Meteorological data was obtained from http//www.tianqihoubao.com. Correlation analysis on meteorological factors and the incidence of HFMD in Xinjiang was conducted, using the Excel 2007, SPSS 17.0, and Spatial Distribution Map by ArcGIS 10.2 software.@*Results@#HFMD usually occurred between April and July. Numbers of patients reached the top in May and June. Temperature was positively correlated with the incidence of HFMD (r=0.370, P<0.01) while precipitation was positively correlated with the incidence of HFMD (r=0.747, P<0.01). The temperature threshold appeared as 5 ℃-35 ℃ for the incidence of HFMD. Interval period was one month between the peak of both the incidence of HFMD and the precipitation. A power function relationship (y=0.009 4x2.332 9, R2=0.898 9) was noticed between the precipitation and the incidence of HFMD.@*Conclusions@#The incidence of HFMD was closely related to the meteorological factors including temperature and precipitation in Xinjiang during 2011-2018. Our findings have provided evidence for the development of early warning system on HFMD in Xinjiang.