Prognostic value of LODDS grading chart in patients with gallbladder cancer / 中华普通外科杂志

ABSTRACT

Objective To explore the predictive significance of logarithm of lymph node positive number to lymph node negative number (LODDS) in patients with gallbladder cancer,and to establish a predictive model of gallbladder cancer based on LODDS.Methods The clinical data of 1321 gallbladder cancer patients who underwent lymphadenectomy in SEER database from 2010 to 2014 were collected.They were randomly divided into test group (n =793) and verification group (n =528).COX multivariate analysis was used to determine independent prognostic factor,and a Nomogram prediction model was established.C index was used to evaluate the accuracy of patient Nomogram and TNM.ROC curve was used to evaluate the accuracy of the contour map and TNM staging in predicting survival rates.Results Independent risk factors for COX analysis were selected including age,tumor size,grade,TNM stage and LODDS analysis,and the contour map was drawn.In the experimental group,the C index was 0.744 (95％ CI,0.707-0.781),and the AUC values of ROC curves predicting 3-year and 5-year survival were 0.815 and 0.823,respectively.The predictive value of C index for TNM staging in the test group was 0.699 (95 ％ CI,0.662-0.736),and the AUC value of ROC curve for TNM staging predicting 3-year and 5-year survival was 0.779 and 0.790,respectively.Conclusion LODDS is an independent prognostic factor for gallbladder cancer.The prediction model based on LODDS is more accurate than TNM staging.