Comparative study on ARIMA model and GRNN model for predicting the incidence of tuberculosis / 第二军医大学学报

ABSTRACT

Objective To compare the performance of ARIMA model and GRNN model for predicting the incidence of tuberculosis. Methods ARIMA model was set up by Eviews 7.0.0.1 and GRNN model was set up by neural network toolbox of Matlab 7.1 based on the monthly tuberculosis incidence data from January 2004 to December 2012 in China. Monthly tuberculosis incidence data in 2013 were subjected to the two models for testing, and the results were compared between the two groups. Results The Theil unequal coefficients (TIC) were 0.034 and 0.059 for ARIMA model and GRNN model, respectively, indicating that ARIMA model was better than GRNN model to fit with the monthly incidence of tuberculosis in 2013. The absolute value of the relative error for ARIMA model was only 57.19% of GRNN model. Conclusion ARIMA prediction model is more suitable for predicting the incidence of tuberculosis in China, and it is suggested a combination of models should be used to predict the incidence of tuberculosis.