Risk factors for 10-year mortality in patients with stable chronic obstructive pulmonary disease / 中华全科医师杂志

ABSTRACT

Objective:To explore the independent risk factors that predict 10-year mortality in patients with stable chronic obstructive pulmonary disease(COPD).Methods:The baseline data from a prospective cohort study were analyzed and long-term follow-up were performed. Patients with confirmed diagnosis of stable COPD were consecutively enrolled in the outpatient clinic from January 2010 to December 2010, and were followed up until December 31, 2020. Cox regression analysis was used to determine the independent risk factors for all-cause mortality and mortality from respiratory causes in stable COPD patients.Results:A total of 182 stable COPD patients were enrolled and followed up for a median of 89 months. The 10-year mortality was 51.1%(93/182), and 9 patients died within one year. The leading cause of death was respiratory disorder, followed by cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases. The risk factors independently associated with all-cause mortality included old age( HR=1.936,95% CI 1.610~2.328, P<0.01), increased baseline COPD Assessment Test(CAT)( HR=1.331,95% CI 1.049-1.689, P=0.02) and the increased CAT in one year( HR=1.314,95% CI 1.197-1.420, P<0.01). The risk factors independently associated with respiratory cause mortality included increased baseline CAT( HR=1.719,95% CI 1.026-2.880, P=0.04), emphysema index(LAA%)( HR=1.062,95% CI 1.007-1.120, P=0.03), and one year inecreased CAT( HR=1.342,95% CI 1.198-1.505, P<0.01)was a protective factor. Conclusions:Old age, baseline CAT, one year increased in CAT and LAA% were independent influencing factors for 10-year mortality of stable COPD patients.