Analysis of risk factors and construction of a prediction model for mild cognitive impairment in elderly inpatients in sub-plateau areas / 中华老年医学杂志

ABSTRACT

Objective:To investigate the prevalence of mild cognitive impairment(MCI)in elderly inpatients in high altitude areas, analyze the influencing factors, and then construct a risk factor model.Methods:A cross-sectional random sampling method was used to conduct a questionnaire survey among elderly patients over 65 years old hospitalized at Qinghai Provincial People's Hospital from October 2018 to February 2019.The survey contents included demographic data, lifestyles, physical activities and cognitive function.The occurrence of MCI was analyzed with descriptive epidemiological measures, a predictive model of influencing factors was established using Logistic regression analysis, and influencing factors were ranked.Results:There were a total of 1412 elderly people aged 65 and above, with 760 males, accounting for 53.8%.The ages of respondents ranged between 65-82 years, with an average age of(72.8±5.8)years.Of the subjects, 600 had MCI, with a prevalence of 42.4%.Male( OR=1.318, P=0.02), junior high school education or above( OR=0.521, P<0.001), bedriddenness( OR=2.658, P=0.002), lifestyle( OR=0.702, P=0.011), abnormal defecation( OR=1.625, P=0.005)and frailty( OR=1.536, P=0.002)were included into the predictive model of influencing factors.The area under the ROC curve in this study was 0.676(95% CI 0.648-0.704), with sensitivity=0.553, specificity=0.741, and Youden index=0.274.When ordered by importance, the independent risk factors were frailty, male, abnormal defecation, bedriddenness, lifestyle, and education level. Conclusions:Male, frailty, abnormal defecation and long-term bedriddenness are risk factors for cognitive impairment in elderly people, whereas living with a partner and education above junior high school are protective factors.