Development and validation of nomograms for predicting stroke recurrence after firstepisode ischemic stroke / 南方医科大学学报
Journal of Southern Medical University
;
(12): 130-136, 2022.
Article
in Chinese
| WPRIM
| ID: wpr-936294
ABSTRACT
OBJECTIVE@#To explore the risk factors for recurrence in first-episode ischemic stroke survivors and establish a model for predicting stroke recurrence using a nomogram.@*METHODS@#We collected the data from a total of 821 first-episode ischemic stroke survivors admitted in the Department of Neurology, West China Hospital, Sichuan University from January, 2010 to December, 2018. R software was used for random sampling of the patients, and 70% of the patients were included in the training set to establish the prediction model and 30% were included in the validation set. Cox proportional risk regression model was used to analyze the factors affecting stroke recurrence, and R software rms package was used to construct the histogram and establish the visual prediction model. C-index and calibration curve were used to evaluate the performance of the model for predicting stroke occurrence.@*RESULTS@#Among the 821 survivors, the recurrence rate was 16.81% at 3 years and 19.98% at 5 years. Multivariate analysis of the training set by Cox regression model showed that an age over 65 years (HR= 2.596, P=0.024), an age of 45-64 years (HR=2.510, P=0.006), a mRS score beyond 3 (HR=2.284, P=0.004) and a history of coronary heart disease (HR=1.353, P=0.034) were all risk factors for stroke recurrence. The C-indexes of the nomogram for the 3-and 5-year relapse prediction model were 0.640 and 0.671, respectively.@*CONCLUSION@#Age, mRS score and peripheral vascular disease are the factors affecting stroke recurrence in first-episode ischemic stroke survivors, and the nomogram has a high discrimination and predictive power for predicting ischemic stroke recurrence.
Full text:
Available
Index:
WPRIM (Western Pacific)
Main subject:
Prognosis
/
Proportional Hazards Models
/
Retrospective Studies
/
Risk Factors
/
Stroke
/
Nomograms
/
Ischemic Stroke
Type of study:
Etiology study
/
Observational study
/
Prognostic study
/
Risk factors
Limits:
Aged
/
Humans
Language:
Chinese
Journal:
Journal of Southern Medical University
Year:
2022
Type:
Article
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