Class-imbalance Prediction and High-dimensional Risk Factor Identification of Adverse Reactions of Traditional Chinese Medicine with Centralized Monitoring in Real-world Hospitals / 中国实验方剂学杂志

ABSTRACT

ObjectiveTo achieve high-dimensional prediction of class imbalanced of adverse drug reaction（ADR） of traditional Chinese medicine（TCM） and to classify and identify risk factors affecting the occurrence of ADR based on the post-marketing safety data of TCM monitored centrally in real world hospitals. MethodThe ensemble clustering resampling combined with regularized Group Lasso regression was used to perform high-dimensional balancing of ADR class-imbalanced data， and then to integrate the balanced datasets to achieve ADR prediction and the risk factor identification by category. ResultA practical example study of the proposed method on a monitoring data of TCM injection performed that the accuracy of the ADR prediction， the prediction sensitivity， the prediction specificity and the area under receiver operating characteristic curve（AUC） were all above 0.8 on the test set. Meanwhile， 40 risk factors affecting the occurrence of ADR were screened out from total 600 high-dimensional variables. And the effect of risk factors on the occurrence of ADR was identified by classification weighting. The important risk factors were classified as follows：past history， medication information， name of combined drugs， disease status， number of combined drugs and personal data. ConclusionIn the real world data of rare ADR with a large amount of clinical variables， this paper realized accurate ADR prediction on high-dimensional and class imbalanced condition， and classified and identified the key risk factors and their clinical significance of categories， so as to provide risk early warning for clinical rational drug use and combined drug use， as well as scientific basis for reevaluation of safety of post-marketing TCM.