Value of serum chitinase-3-like protein 1 in predicting the risk of decompensation events in patients with liver cirrhosis / 临床肝胆病杂志

ABSTRACT

Objective To investigate the value of serum chitinase-3-like protein 1 (CHI3L1) in predicting the risk of decompensation events in patients with liver cirrhosis, since prediction of decompensation events and adoption of active preventive measures are the key to improving the survival time of patients with liver cirrhosis. Methods A case-control study was conducted for 305 patients with liver cirrhosis who were diagnosed and treated in Tianjin Second People's Hospital from January 2019 to May 2021, among whom there were 200 patients with compensated liver cirrhosis and 105 patients with decompensated liver cirrhosis at baseline. According to whether decompensation events occurred within 1 year, the 305 patients with liver cirrhosis were divided into decompensation group with 79 patients and non-decompensation group with 226 patients; according to whether decompensation events occurred for the first time within 1 year, the 200 patients with compensated liver cirrhosis were divided into first-time decompensation group with 43 patients and non-first-time decompensation group with 157 patients. The independent samples t -test or the Mann-Whitney U test was used for comparison of normally distributed continuous data between groups, and the Wilcoxon rank-sum test or the chi-square test was used for comparison of categorical data between groups. The binary logistic regression analysis was used to investigate the association between each variable and decompensation events; the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve and the area under the ROC curve (AUC) were used to investigate the value of each variable in predicting decompensation events, and the maximum value of Youden index was used to determine the optimal cut-off value. Results The patients who experienced decompensation events within 1 year had a significantly higher baseline serum level of CHI3L1 than those who did not experience such events [243.00 (136.00-372.00) ng/mL vs 117.50 (67.75-205.25) ng/mL, U =4720.500, P < 0.001], and the patients who experienced decompensation events for the first time within 1 year had a significantly higher baseline serum level of CHI3L1 than those who did not experience such events [227.98 (110.00-314.00) ng/mL vs 90.00 (58.00-168.50) ng/mL, U =1 681.500, P < 0.001]. Patients with cirrhosis with higher baseline CHI3L1 levels had an increased risk of decompensation events within 1 year ( OR =1.004, 95% CI 1.002-1.006, P < 0.001); Patients with compensated cirrhosis with higher baseline serum CHI3L1 levels had an increased risk of first decompensated event within 1 year ( OR =1.006, 95% CI 1.003-1.008, P < 0.001). The baseline serum level of CHI3L1 had an AUC of 0.751 in predicting the risk of first-time decompensation events, with a sensitivity of 90.7% and a specificity of 55.4% at the optimal cut-off value of 95.5 ng/mL. The predictive model based on the combination of serum CHI3L1 level and Child-Pugh class had an AUC of 0.809, with a sensitivity of 72.1% and a specificity of 77.1% at the maximum value of Youden index. Conclusion Serum CHI3L1 level can be used as an effective predictive factor for the risk of first-time decompensation events in patients with compensated liver cirrhosis, and its combination with Child-Pugh class shows a higher predictive value.