Clinical characteristics and risk factors for severe disease of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome in underage patients / 中华传染病杂志

ABSTRACT

Objective:To analyze the clinical characteristics and risk factors for severe disease of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS) in underage patients, and to construct the severe disease risk model.Methods:A total of 170 HFRS patients (<18 years old) from the Second Affiliated Hospital of Air Force Medical University (153 cases) and the Second Affiliated Hospital of Xi′an Jiaotong University (17 cases) from January 2009 to December 2021 were included. According to the severity of the disease, the patients were divided into mild and severe groups. Baseline demographic data, symptoms, signs, laboratory examination on admission and prognosis were analyzed between the two groups. Statistical comparisons were performed using the Mann-Whitney U test and chi-square test.Binary logistic regression was used to analyze the independent risk factors of patients with severe disease, and the severe disease risk model was built.The receiver operator characteristic curve was used to analyze the value of the risk model in predicting severity of disease. Results:Among the 170 underage patients, 132 (77.6%) were males, aged (14.9±3.1) years, including 124 cases in mild group and 46 cases in severe group. One hundred and sixty-nine cases (99.4%) had fever, 119 cases (70.0%) had headache, 106 cases (62.4%) had lumbago, 158 cases (92.9%) had skin and mucous congestion, and 101 cases (59.4%) had nausea and vomiting. Renal percussive pain was found in 139(81.8%) patients. The incidence of nausea and vomiting and bleeding of skin and mucosa in the severe group were 71.7%(33/46) and 67.4%(31/46), respectively, which were both higher than those in the mild group (54.8%(68/124) and 44.4%(55/124), respectively), and the differences were statistically significant ( χ2=3.97 and 7.12, respectively, both P<0.05). There were significant differences in platelet count, activated partial thromboplastin time (APTT), serum creatinine (SCr), aspartate aminotransferase, alanine aminotransferase, leukocyte count, total bilirubin and albumin levels between the two groups ( Z=-4.14, -4.04, -4.87, -3.90, -4.07, -2.60, -2.78 and t=2.50, respectively, all P<0.05). Binary logistic regression analysis showed that chemosis (odds ratio ( OR)=8.035, 95% confidence interval (95% CI) 2.946 to 21.916), SCr ( OR=1.010, 95% CI 1.006 to 1.015) and APTT ( OR=1.049, 95% CI 1.003 to 1.098) were the independent risk factors for severe HFRS in the underage patients. The risk model was constructed as Logit(P)=-10.323+ 2.084×chemosis (no=0, grade Ⅰ=1, grade Ⅱ=2, grade Ⅲ=3)+ 0.010×SCr (μmol/L)+ 0.048×APTT (s). The area under the curve to predict severity of disease in underage HFRS patients was 0.868, with an optimal cut-off value of -4.39, with a sensitivity of 73.90% and a specificity of 91.10%. According to the internal verification of the data of the study based on the severe disease risk model, 34 out of 46 patients with severe disease were severe (sensitivity, 73.91%), 113 out of 124 patients with mild disease were mild (specificity, 91.13%). Conclusions:The clinical manifestations of the underage HFRS patients are not typical.The main manifestations are fever, headache and lumbago, nausea and vomiting, and the incidences of skin and mucous congestion and renal percussive pain are high.Chemosis, SCr and APTT are independent risk factors for severe disease in underage patients with HFRS. The severe disease risk model could effectively predict the severity of disease.