Predictive value of different critical values of slow gait speed on adverse outcomes in elderly maintenance hemodialysis patients / 中华肾脏病杂志

ABSTRACT

Objective:To explore the predictive value of different critical values of slow gait speed on adverse outcomes in elderly maintenance hemodialysis (MHD) patients.Methods:The study was a prospective cohort study. The clinical data of elderly patients (≥ 60 years old) who received MHD treatment in the Third Affiliated Hospital of Guangzhou Medical University from March 1 to June 30, 2021 were collected, including demographic characteristics, diseases-related data and laboratory examination results. The follow-up period was one year. The six-meter walking test was used to measure the gait speed (m/s), and 0.6 m/s, 0.8 m/s and 1.0 m/s were used as the different critical values of the gait speed for grouping. The differences of clinical data between different groups were compared. Logistic regression analysis method was used to assess the association of slow gait speed with adverse outcomes (falls and hospitalization) in elderly MHD patients. The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve was performed to evaluate the best critical value of slow gait speed to predict the risk of falls and hospitalization.Results:A total of 108 elderly patients with MHD were included, with 57 males and 51 females. There were 43 patients (39.8%) of falls and 34 patients (31.5%) of hospitalization. There were statistically significant differences in age, Charlson's comorbidity index, and the proportions of hypertension, family support needed in daily life, walking aids needed, falls and hospitalization events among the four groups of the patients grouped according to gait speed (all P < 0.05). Multivariate logistic regression analysis results showed that the risk of falls predicted by gait speed of 0.6- < 0.8 m/s was higher than that by gait speed of > 1.0 m/s ( OR=3.973, 95% CI 1.116-14.136, P=0.033). The risk of hospitalization predicted by gait speed < 0.6 m/s was higher than that by gait speed > 1.0 m/s ( OR=9.147, 95% CI 1.658-50.453, P=0.011). The logistic regression analysis was performed with the critical values of 0.6 m/s, 0.8 m/s and 1.0 m/s as the classification variables, and the results showed that the gait speed of < 0.8 m/s was an influencing factor of the falls risk in elderly MHD patients (≥ 0.8 m/s as reference, OR=3.200, 95% CI 1.099-9.318, P=0.033). The gait speed < 0.8 m/s and < 0.6 m/s were influencing factors of hospitalization (≥ 0.8 m/s as reference, OR=3.899, 95% CI 1.355-11.216, P=0.012; ≥ 0.6 m/s as reference, OR=4.226, 95% CI 1.107-16.140, P=0.035). The area under the ROC curve for gait speed of < 0.6 m/s, < 0.8 m/s and < 1.0 m/s to predict the risk of falls were 0.605(95% CI 0.493-0.717, P=0.065), 0.668(95% CI 0.562-0.774, P=0.003), and 0.634 (95% CI 0.529-0.739, P=0.019), respectively. The best critical value of slow gait speed to predict the risk of fall was 0.73 m/s, and the area under the ROC curve was 0.720(95% CI 0.623-0.817, P < 0.001), with the sensitivity and specificity of 0.846 and 0.512, respectively. The area under the ROC curve for gait speed of < 0.6 m/s, < 0.8 m/s and < 1.0 m/s to predict the risk of hospitalization were 0.629(95% CI 0.509-0.749, P=0.032),0.683(95% CI 0.573-0.793, P=0.002), and 0.608(95% CI 0.497- 0.719, P=0.073). The best critical value of slow gait speed to predict the risk of hospitalization was 0.81 m/s, and the area under the ROC curve was 0.688(95% CI 0.576-0.800, P=0.002), with the sensitivity and specificity of 0.689 and 0.676, respectively. Conclusion:The critical value of gait speed 0.8 m/s can be used to predict the risk of falls and hospitalization in elderly MHD patients.