This article is a Preprint
Preprints are preliminary research reports that have not been certified by peer review. They should not be relied on to guide clinical practice or health-related behavior and should not be reported in news media as established information.
Preprints posted online allow authors to receive rapid feedback and the entire scientific community can appraise the work for themselves and respond appropriately. Those comments are posted alongside the preprints for anyone to read them and serve as a post publication assessment.
Covid-19 mortality rates in Northamptonshire UK: initial sub-regional comparisons and provisional SEIR model of disease spread (preprint)
medrxiv; 2020.
Preprint
in English
| medRxiv | ID: ppzbmed-10.1101.2020.07.30.20165399
ABSTRACT
We analysed mortality rates in a non-metropolitan UK subregion (Northamptonshire) to understand SARS-CoV-2 disease fatalities at sub 1000000 population levels. A numerical (SEIR) model was then developed to predict the spread of Covid-19 in Northamptonshire. A combined approach using statistically-weighted data to fit the start of the epidemic to the mortality record. Parameter estimates were then derived for the transmission rate and basic reproduction number. Age standardised mortality rates are highest in Northampton (urban) and lowest in semi-rural districts. Northamptonshire has a statistically higher Covid-19 mortality rate than for the East Midlands and England as a whole. Model outputs suggest the number of infected individuals exceed official estimates, meaning less than 40 percent of the population may require immunisation. Combining published (sub-regional) mortality rate data with deterministic models on disease spread has the potential to help public health practitioners develop bespoke mitigations, guided by local population demographics.
Full text:
Available
Collection:
Preprints
Database:
medRxiv
Main subject:
Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome
/
COVID-19
Language:
English
Year:
2020
Document Type:
Preprint
Similar
MEDLINE
...
LILACS
LIS