Indirect effects of peaks in COVID admissions on access to surgery in the English NHS, differential effects by operation type, ethnicity and socio-economic status: a database study (preprint)

ABSTRACT

ObjectivesDuring the COVID pandemic the UK saw two peaks in the prevalence of hospital admissions resulting in disruption of routine hospital services in the English National Health Service. This study aimed to track the effect of these peaks on various types of surgery representing differences in urgency, importance, and complexity. DesignDatabase study using the Hospital Episode Statistics database and surgical operations selected purposively, to represent different combinations of urgency, importance and complexity. SettingAll hospitals within England that carried out procedures funded by the National Health Service. Main Outcome MeasuresNumber of emergency routine surgeries; cancer-removal surgeries; transplant surgeries; renal transplants Deceased and living donors); and elective routine surgeries carried out prior to and during the COVID pandemic. ResultsWhile all surgeries declined, emergency or urgent operations held up better than elective cases. There was rapid rebound between peaks. Among emergency cases, coronary angioplasty for acute myocardial infarction held up well in contrast to appendectomy, where indications for surgery are more elastic. Among urgent cancer and transplant operations, those with the most complex pathways were the most severely affected. The pandemic affected socio-economic and ethnic groups similarly. Disruption during the second peak was slightly less than during the first peak despite even greater COVID admission rates. ConclusionThe NHS titrated its response appropriately to the pandemic by prioritising emergency and urgent cases over elective cases. However, complex time critical conditions like organ transplants and certain cancers are also disrupted with implications for third peaks in hospital admissions that many countries are experiencing.