Disentangling the relationship between cancer mortality and COVID-19 (preprint)

ABSTRACT

Several countries have reported that deaths with a primary code of cancer did not rise during COVID-19 pandemic waves compared to baseline pre-pandemic levels. This is in apparent conflict with findings from cohort studies where cancer has been identified as a risk factor for COVID-19 mortality. Here we further elucidate the relationship between cancer mortality and COVID-19 on a population level in the US by testing the impact of death certificate coding changes during the pandemic and leveraging heterogeneity in pandemic intensity across US states. We computed excess mortality from weekly deaths during 2014-2020 nationally and for three states with distinct COVID-19 wave timing (NY, TX, and CA). We compared pandemic-related mortality patterns from underlying and multiple causes (MC) death data for six types of cancer and high-risk chronic conditions such as diabetes and Alzheimers. Any coding change should be captured in MC data. Nationally in 2020, we found only modest excess MC cancer mortality ([~]12,000 deaths), representing a 2% elevation over baseline. Mortality elevation was measurably higher for less deadly cancers (breast, colorectal, and hematologic, 2-5%) than cancers with a poor 5-year survival (lung and pancreatic, 0-1%). In comparison, there was substantial elevation in MC deaths from diabetes (39%) and Alzheimers (31%). Homing in on the intense spring 2020 COVID-19 wave in NY, mortality elevation was 2-15% for cancer and 126% and 55% for diabetes and Alzheimers, respectively. Simulations based on a demographic model indicate that differences in life expectancy for these conditions, along with the age and size of the at-risk populations, largely explain the observed differences in excess mortality during the COVID-19 pandemic. In conclusion, we found limited elevation in cancer mortality during COVID-19 waves, even after considering coding changes. Our demographic model predicted low expected excess mortality in populations living with certain types of cancer, even if cancer is a risk factor for COVID-19 fatality risk, due to competing mortality risk. We also find a moderate increase in excess mortality from blood cancers, aligned with other types of observational studies. While our study concentrates on the immediate consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic on cancer mortality, further research should consider the pandemic impact on hospitalizations, delayed diagnosis/treatment and risk of Long COVID in cancer patients.