Geospatial epidemiology of leprosy in northwest Bangladesh: a 20-year retrospective observational study.

BACKGROUND: Leprosy is known to be unevenly distributed between and within countries. High risk areas or 'hotspots' are potential targets for preventive interventions, but the underlying epidemiologic mechanisms that enable hotspots to emerge, are not yet fully understood. In this study, we identified and characterized leprosy hotspots in Bangladesh, a country with one of the highest leprosy endemicity levels globally. METHODS: We used data from four high-endemic districts in northwest Bangladesh including 20 623 registered cases between January 2000 and April 2019 (among ~ 7 million population). Incidences per union (smallest administrative unit) were calculated using geospatial population density estimates. A geospatial Poisson model was used to detect incidence hotspots over three (overlapping) 10-year timeframes: 2000-2009, 2005-2014 and 2010-2019. Ordinal regression models were used to assess whether patient characteristics were significantly different for cases outside hotspots, as compared to cases within weak (i.e., relative risk (RR) of one to two), medium (i.e., RR of two to three), and strong (i.e., RR higher than three) hotspots. RESULTS: New case detection rates dropped from 44/100 000 in 2000 to 10/100 000 in 2019. Statistically significant hotspots were identified during all timeframes and were often located at areas with high population densities. The RR for leprosy was up to 12 times higher for inhabitants of hotspots than for people living outside hotspots. Within strong hotspots (1930 cases among less than 1% of the population), significantly more child cases (i.e., below 15 years of age) were detected, indicating recent transmission. Cases in hotspots were not significantly more likely to be detected actively. CONCLUSIONS: Leprosy showed a heterogeneous distribution with clear hotspots in northwest Bangladesh throughout a 20-year period of decreasing incidence. Findings confirm that leprosy hotspots represent areas of higher transmission activity and are not solely the result of active case finding strategies.

Revised estimates of leprosy disability weights for assessing the global burden of disease: A systematic review and individual patient data meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: Leprosy is a chronic bacterial infection caused by Mycobacterium leprae, which may lead to physical disability, stigma, and discrimination. The chronicity of the disease and disabilities are the prime contributors to the disease burden of leprosy. The current figures of the disease burden in the 2017 global burden of disease study, however, are considered to be under-estimated. In this study, we aimed to systematically review the literature and perform individual patient data meta-analysis to estimate new disability weights for leprosy, using Health-Related Quality of Life (HRQOL) data. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: The search strategy included all major databases with no restriction on language, setting, study design, or year of publication. Studies on human populations that have been affected by leprosy and recorded the HRQOL with the Short form tool, were included. A consortium was formed with authors who could share the anonymous individual-level data of their study. Mean disability weight estimates, sorted by the grade of leprosy disability as defined by WHO, were estimated for individual participant data and pooled using multivariate random-effects meta-analysis. Eight out of 14 studies from the review were included in the meta-analysis due to the availability of individual-level data (667 individuals). The overall estimated disability weight for grade 2 disability was 0.26 (95%CI: 0.18-0.34). For grade 1 disability the estimated weight was 0.19 (95%CI: 0.13-0.26) and for grade 0 disability it was 0.13 (95%CI: 0.06-0.19). The revised disability weight for grade 2 leprosy disability is four times higher than the published GBD 2017 weights for leprosy and the grade 1 disability weight is nearly twenty times higher. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: The global burden of leprosy is grossly underestimated. Revision of the current disability weights and inclusion of disability caused in individuals with grade 0 leprosy disability will contribute towards a more precise estimation of the global burden of leprosy.

Revised estimates of leprosy disability weights for assessing the global burden of disease: a systematic review and individual patient data meta-analysis

Leprosy is a chronic, disabling disease that causes various kinds of disability in the affected person. This includes physical impairment, activity limitation, and participation restriction. However, the published global burden of disease estimates for leprosy is considered to be a gross under-estimation. Disability weights form an integral component in the calculation of the burden estimates. But the methodology for calculation of the weights focuses only on physical impairment and lacks the perspective of the patient. In this study, we systematically reviewed the literature and performed an individual patient data meta analysis for revising the disability weights for leprosy using domain scores from health related quality of life instruments. The domains of these instruments cover all aspects of disability from a patient's perspective. We found that the revised weights were considerably higher than the current weights, and were more reflective of the actual disability caused by leprosy. We also found that for individuals without any severe disability due to leprosy (grade 0), they still experience comparable suffering. Revision of the current disability weights and inclusion of the disability caused in grade 0 individuals will contribute towards better estimation of the global burden of leprosy.

Effectiveness of 32 versus 20 weeks of prednisolone in leprosy patients with recent nerve function impairment: A randomized controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: While prednisolone is commonly used to treat recent nerve function impairment (NFI) in leprosy patients, the optimal treatment duration has not yet been established. In this "Treatment of Early Neuropathy in Leprosy" (TENLEP) trial, we evaluated whether a 32-week prednisolone course is more effective than a 20-week course in restoring and improving nerve function. METHODS: In this multi-centre, triple-blind, randomized controlled trial, leprosy patients who had recently developed clinical NFI (<6 months) were allocated to a prednisolone treatment regimen of either 20 weeks or 32 weeks. Prednisolone was started at either 45 or 60 mg/day, depending on the patient's body weight, and was then tapered. Throughout follow up, NFI was assessed by voluntary muscle testing and monofilament testing. The primary outcome was the proportion of patients with improved or restored nerve function at week 78. As secondary outcomes, we analysed improvements between baseline and week 78 on the Reaction Severity Scale, the SALSA Scale and the Participation Scale. Serious Adverse Events and the need for additional prednisolone treatment were monitored and reported. RESULTS: We included 868 patients in the study, 429 in the 20-week arm and 439 in the 32-week arm. At 78 weeks, the proportion of patients with improved or restored nerve function did not differ significantly between the groups: 78.1% in the 20-week arm and 77.5% in the 32-week arm (p = 0.821). Nor were there any differences in secondary outcomes, except for a significant higher proportion of Serious Adverse Events in the longer treatment arm. CONCLUSION: In our study, a 20-week course of prednisolone was as effective as a 32-week course in improving and restoring recent clinical NFI in leprosy patients. Twenty weeks is therefore the preferred initial treatment duration for leprosy neuropathy, after which likely only a minority of patients require further individualized treatment.

Responding to the challenge of leprosy-related disability and ultra-poverty.

INTRODUCTION: The Millennium Development Goals have provided much needed attention to extreme poverty reduction. However, people with disabilities are disproportionately affected by poverty and in some countries, even the goal of US$1 per day is far out of reach. For people with leprosy-related disability living in ultra-poverty (on less than 50 cents a day), many mainstream poverty reduction strategies are inaccessible and inappropriate. METHOD: A project in north-west Bangladesh developed a more contextually meaningful definition of ultra-poverty according to nutrition energy intake. A total of 2372 people with leprosy-related disability were surveyed. Of those, 1285 individuals fell below the ultra-poverty line. Individualised interventions were implemented over an extended period of time, comprised of targeted practical assistance, enhancing community links, advocacy for entitlements, and further linking with other initiatives. RESULTS: Follow-up data available for 856 individuals showed an average increase in per capita income of 83%. Personal contribution to the family income increased by 65%. There was a 51% increase in families having access to a latrine. Finally families reported eating 30% more meals per day, up from an average of two meals per day. CONCLUSIONS: The initiative sought to address poverty in a wide variety of ways, using minimal inputs. Over several years, the results indicate a significant change in the economic situation of individuals with leprosy related disabilities. Other organisations are encouraged to duplicate the intervention and share their results.