International open trial of uniform multidrug therapy regimen for leprosy patients: Findings & implications for national leprosy programmes.

BACKGROUND & OBJECTIVES: Uniform therapy for all leprosy patients will simplify leprosy treatment. In this context, we evaluated six-month multidrug therapy (MDT) currently recommended for multibacillary (MB) patients as uniform MDT (U-MDT) in a single-arm open trial under programme conditions. Primary objective was to determine efficacy to prevent five-year cumulative five per cent relapse. Secondary objectives were to assess acceptability, safety and compliance. METHODS: Newly detected, treatment-naive leprosy patients were enrolled in India (six sites) and P. R. China (two sites). Primary outcome was clinically confirmed relapse of occurrence of one or more new skin patches consistent with leprosy, without evidence of reactions post-treatment. Event rates per 100 person years as well as five-year cumulative risk of relapse, were calculated. RESULTS: A total of 2091 paucibacillary (PB) and 1298 MB leprosy patients were recruited from the 3437 patients screened. Among PB, two relapsed (rate=0.023; risk=0.11%), eight had suspected adverse drug reactions (ADRs) (rate=0.79) and rate of new lesions due toreactions was 0.24 (n=23). Rates of neuritis, type 1 and type 2 reactions were 0.39 (n=37), 0.54 (n=51) and 0.03 (n=3), respectively. Among MB, four relapsed (rate=0.07; risk=0.37%) and 16 had suspected ADR (rate=2.64). Rate of new lesions due to reactions among MB was 1.34 (n=76) and rates of neuritis, type 1 and type 2 reactions were 1.37 (n=78), 2.01 (n=114) and 0.49 (n=28), respectively. Compliance to U-MDT was 99 per cent. Skin pigmentation due to clofazimine was of short duration and acceptable. INTERPRETATION & CONCLUSIONS: We observed low relapse, minimal ADR and other adverse clinical events. Clofazimine-related pigmentation was acceptable. Evidence supports introduction of U-MDT in national leprosy programmes. [CTRI No: 2012/ 05/ 002696].

A Bayesian approach to study the space time variation of leprosy in an endemic area of Tamil Nadu, South India.

BACKGROUND: In leprosy endemic areas, patients are usually spatially clustered and not randomly distributed. Classical statistical techniques fail to address the problem of spatial clustering in the regression model. Bayesian method is one which allows itself to incorporate spatial dependence in the model. However little is explored in the field of leprosy. The Bayesian approach may improve our understanding about the variation of the disease prevalence of leprosy over space and time. METHODS: Data from an endemic area of leprosy, covering 148 panchayats from two taluks in South India for four time points between January 1991 and March 2003 was used. Four Bayesian models, namely, space-cohort and space-period models with and without interactions were compared using the Deviance Information Criterion. Cohort effect, period effect over four time points and spatial effect (smoothed) were obtained using WinBUGS. The spatial or panchayat effect thus estimated was compared with the raw standardized morbidity (leprosy prevalence) rate (SMR) using a choropleth map. The possible factors that might have influenced the variations of prevalence of leprosy were explored. RESULTS: Bayesian models with the interaction term were found to be the best fitted model. Leprosy prevalence was higher than average in the older cohorts. The last two cohorts 1987-1996 and 1992-2001 showed a notable decline in leprosy prevalence. Period effect over 4 time points varied from a high of 3.2% to a low of 1.8%. Spatial effect varied between 0.59 and 2. Twenty-six panchayats showed significantly higher prevalence of leprosy than the average when Bayesian method was used and it was 40 panchayats with the raw SMR. CONCLUSION: Reduction of prevalence of leprosy was 92% for persons born after 1996, which could be attributed to various intervention and treatment programmes like vaccine trial and MDT. The estimated period effects showed a gradual decline in the risk of leprosy which could be due to better nutrition, hygiene and increased awareness about the disease. Comparison of the maps of the relative risk using the Bayesian smoothing and the raw SMR showed the variation of the geographical distribution of the leprosy prevalence in the study area. Panchayat or spatial effects using Bayesian showed clustersing of leprosy cases towards the northeastern end of the study area which was overcrowded and population belonging to poor economic status.

SIMLEP: a simulation model for leprosy transmission and control

SIMLEP is a computer program for modeling the transmission and control of leprosy which can be used to project epidemiologic trends over time, producing output on indicators such as prevalence, incidence and case-detection rates of leprosy. In SIMLEP, health states have been defined that represent immunologic conditions and stages of leprosy infection and disease. Three types of interventions are incorporated: vaccination, case detection and chemotherapy treatment. Uncertainties about leprosy have led to a flexible design in which the user chooses which of many aspects should be included in the model. These aspects include natural immunity, asymptomatic infection, type distribution of new cases, delay between onset of disease and start of chemotherapy, and mechanisms for leprosy transmission. An example run illustrates input and output of the program. The output produced by SIMLEP can be readily compared with observed data, which allows for validation studies. The support that SIMLEP can give to health policy research and actual decision making will depend upon the extent of validation that has been achieved. SIMLEP can be used to improve the understanding of observed leprosy trends, for example, in relation to early detection campaigns and the use of multidrug therapy, by exploring which combinations of assumptions can explain these trends. In addition, SIMLEP allows for scenario analysis in which the effects of control strategies combining different interventions can be simulated and evaluated.

Lot quality assurance sampling (LQAS) for monitoring a leprosy elimination Program

In a statistical sense, prevalences of leprosy in different geographical areas can be called very low or rare. Conventional survey methods to monitor leprosy control programs, therefore, need large sample sizes, are expensive, and are time-consuming. Further, with the lowering of prevalence to the near-desired target level, 1 case per 10,000 population at national or subnational levels, the program administrator's concern will be shifted to smaller areas, e.g., districts, for assessment and, if needed, for necessary interventions. In this paper, Lot Quality Assurance Sampling (LQAS), a quality control tool in industry, is proposed to identify districts/regions having a prevalence of leprosy at or above a certain target level, e.g., 1 in 10,000. This technique can also be considered for identifying districts/regions at or below the target level of 1 per 10,000, i.e., areas where the elimination level is attained. For simulating various situations and strategies, a hypothetical computerized population of 10 million persons was created. This population mimics the actual population in terms of the empirical information on rural/urban distributions and the distribution of households by size for the state of Tamil Nadu, India. Various levels with respect to leprosy prevalence are created using this population. The distribution of the number of cases in the population was expected to follow the Poisson process, and this was also confirmed by examination. Sample sizes and corresponding critical values were computed using Poisson approximation. Initially, villages/towns are selected from the population and from each selected village/town households are selected using systematic sampling. Households instead of individuals are used as sampling units. This sampling procedure was simulated 1000 times in the computer from the base population. The results in four different prevalence situations meet the required limits of Type I error of 5% and 90% Power. It is concluded that after validation under field conditions, this method can be considered for a rapid assessment of the leprosy situation.

Regional lymphadenitis following antileprosy vaccine BCG with killed mycobacterium leprae

Phase-II and extended Phase-II studies were conducted in three different sets of the population in Thiruthani Taluk, Chengalpattu District, South India, involving BCG and killed Mycobacterium leprae (KML) combination vaccines to ascertain the acceptability of the vaccines. In the Phase-II study, 997 healthy volunteers were vaccinated on individual randomization with one of the vaccines arms: BCG 0.1 mg + 6 x 10(8) KML, BCG 0.1 mg + 5 x 10(7) KML, BCG 0.1 mg + 5 x 10(6) KML, BCG, 0.1 mg or normal saline. Blood samples were taken and the serum was tested for antibody levels against phenolic glycolipid-I (PGL-I) and the 35-kDa protein of M. leprae. In this study, we observed regional suppurative adenitis in 6% (6 out of 100), 3% (3 out of 100), and 3% (3 out of 100) of the vaccinees in the BCG 0.1 mg + 6 x 10(8) KML, BCG 0.1 mg + 5 x 10(7) KML, and BCG 0.1 mg + 5 x 10(6) KML vaccine arms, respectively, in the 13-70 year age group. Earlier BCG scar status, skin-test reactions to lepromin-A, Rees' MLSA, and serum antibody levels against PGL-I and the 35-kDa protein did not help to identify the group at risk of developing suppurative adenitis. Suppurative adenitis appears to have a different relationship between the age of the subject and the dose of the vaccine. In order to overcome the problem of regional suppurative adenitis and to know the mechanism involved, an extended Phase-II study was conducted in similar groups of the population by reducing the BCG and KML doses, i.e., with BCG 0.05 mg + 6 x 10(8) KML, BCG 0.05 mg + 5 x 10(7) KML, and BCG 0.01 mg + 5 x 10(7) KML. Biopsy specimens were collected from lymph nodes of the suppurative adenitis cases and were subjected for culture and histopathological examination. The observations showed that regional suppurative adenitis could be reduced to 1% in the BCG 0.05 + 6 x 10(8) KML group, 0.5% in the BCG 0.05 + 5 x 10(7) KML group, and 0.5% in the BCG 0.01 + 5 x 10(7) KML group. This phenomenon of suppurative adenitis appears to be related to the total dose of mycobacterial antigens. Suppurative adenitis was seen by weeks 18 and 20 post-vaccination in the latter two lower doses; whereas it was seen by week 8 in the higher dose of the combination vaccines. No case of suppurative adenitis was observed in the BCG 0.1 mg group. Culture and histopathology ruled out the possibilities of progressive BCG infection and superadded infection. Considering the above results, BCG 0.05 mg + 6 x 10(8) KML was acceptable for a large-scale vaccine trial in South India.