Early identification of leptospirosis-associated pulmonary hemorrhage syndrome by use of a validated prediction model.

OBJECTIVE: To identify prediction factors for the development of leptospirosis-associated pulmonary hemorrhage syndrome (LPHS). METHODS: We conducted a prospective cohort study. The study comprised of 203 patients, aged > or =14 years, admitted with complications of the severe form of leptospirosis at the Emílio Ribas Institute of Infectology (Sao Paulo, Brazil) between 1998 and 2004. Laboratory and demographic data were obtained and the severity of illness score and involvement of the lungs and others organs were determined. Logistic regression was performed to identify independent predictors of LPHS. A prospective validation cohort of 97 subjects with severe form of leptospirosis admitted at the same hospital between 2004 and 2006 was used to independently evaluate the predictive value of the model. RESULTS: The overall mortality rate was 7.9%. Multivariate logistic regression revealed that five factors were independently associated with the development of LPHS: serum potassium (mmol/L) (OR = 2.6; 95% CI = 1.1-5.9); serum creatinine (micromol/L) (OR = 1.2; 95% CI = 1.1-1.4); respiratory rate (breaths/min) (OR = 1.1; 95% CI = 1.1-1.2); presenting shock (OR = 69.9; 95% CI = 20.1-236.4), and Glasgow Coma Scale Score (GCS) < 15 (OR = 7.7; 95% CI = 1.3-23.0). We used these findings to calculate the risk of LPHS by the use of a spreadsheet. In the validation cohort, the equation classified correctly 92% of patients (Kappa statistic = 0.80). CONCLUSIONS: We developed and validated a multivariate model for predicting LPHS. This tool should prove useful in identifying LPHS patients, allowing earlier management and thereby reducing mortality.

Meningoencefalite na fase aguda do sarampo: relato de seis casos / Meningoencephalitis in the acute phase of measles: report of 6 cases

Apresentamos 6 casos de meningoencefalite aguda por sarampo, diagnosticados durante epidemia na cidade de São Paulo, em 1997. Os prontuários dos 6 pacientes foram analisados retrospectivamente. O diagnóstico de meningoencefalite baseou-se nas alterações clínicas e liquóricas, e foi confirmado por sorologia específica. Dos 467 pacientes com sarampo atendidos no Instituto de Infectologia Emílio Ribas nesse período, estes 6 evoluíram com alterações neurológicas e liquóricas durante a fase exantemática, sendo a sonolência e rigidez de nuca os achados mais frequentes. Os pacientes tinham entre 2 meses e 28 anos de idade. O exame do líquor mostrou pleocitose em todos. Não houve correlação entre a severidade do quadro clínico e liquórico com a evolução. Em 4 casos foi necessária internação na unidade de terapia intensiva; destes, 2 foram intubados. Apenas 2 pacientes apresentaram alterações na tomografia computadorizada de crânio. Todos tiveram boa evolução, sem sequelas.