Clusters of risk for the occurrence of leprosy and disabilities in children under 15 years of age in Cuiabá: a geospatial study. / Aglomerados de risco para ocorrência de hanseníase e as incapacidades em menores de 15 anos em Cuiabá: um estudo geoespacial.

OBJECTIVE: This study aimed to analyze the spatial distribution of leprosy and disabilities in children under 15 years of age in Cuiabá. METHODS: Ecological study carried out in the city of Cuiabá, Mato Grosso, Brazil. The study population consisted of leprosy cases in children under 15 years old notified in the Notifiable Diseases Information System, between 2008 and 2018. Based on residential addresses, cases were georeferenced. In the analysis of the spatial distribution of the cases, the estimation of the Kernel density was used and, later, the statistics of spatial, spatio-temporal and Spatial Variation in Temporal Trends were applied. RESULTS: 514 cases of leprosy were reported in children under 15 years of age in Cuiabá, with a percentage of 10.1% of cases with degree of physical disability 1 and 2.3% with degree of physical disability 2 at the time of diagnosis. With the techniques of spatial and spatio-temporal scanning, clusters of risk for leprosy were identified in the North, West, East and South regions of Cuiabá, and with the technique of Spatial Variation in Temporal Trends, a cluster was identified in the West region of Cuiabá. CONCLUSION: In Cuiabá, cases of leprosy in children under 15 years of age with disabilities were distributed throughout the urban area of the city, with the highest density of cases in the North and West regions, followed by the East region. The clusters with the highest Relative Risk were identified in the East and West regions, characterized by having low and medium income levels.

OBJETIVO: Este estudo teve como objetivo analisar a distribuição espacial da hanseníase e as incapacidades em menores de 15 anos de idade em Cuiabá. MÉTODOS: Estudo ecológico realizado na cidade de Cuiabá, Mato Grosso, Brasil. A população do estudo foi composta de casos de hanseníase em menores de 15 anos notificados no Sistema de Informações de Agravos de Notificação, entre os anos de 2008 e 2018. Com base nos endereços residenciais, os casos foram georreferenciados. Na análise da distribuição espacial dos casos, foi utilizada a estimativa da densidade de Kernel e, posteriormente, aplicada a estatística de varredura espacial, espaço-temporal e variação espacial nas tendências temporais. RESULTADOS: Foram notificados 514 casos de hanseníase em menores de 15 anos em Cuiabá, com percentual de 10,1% de casos com grau de incapacidade física 1 e 2,3% com grau de incapacidade física 2 no momento do diagnóstico. Com as técnicas de varredura espacial e espaço-temporal, foram identificados aglomerados de risco para hanseníase nas regiões norte, oeste, leste e sul de Cuiabá, e com a técnica de variação espacial nas tendências temporais foi identificado um aglomerado na região oeste de Cuiabá. CONCLUSÃO: Em Cuiabá, os casos de hanseníase em menores de 15 anos com incapacidades estavam distribuídos em toda a extensão urbana da cidade, com maior densidade de casos nas regiões norte e oeste, seguida da região leste. Os aglomerados de maior risco relativo foram identificados nas regiões leste e oeste, caracterizadas por apresentar baixo e médio níveis de renda.

Aglomerados de risco para ocorrência de hanseníase e as incapacidades em menores de 15 anos em Cuiabá: um estudo geoespacial / Clusters of risk for the occurrence of leprosy and disabilities in children under 15 years of age in Cuiabá: a geospatial study

RESUMO Objetivo: Este estudo teve como objetivo analisar a distribuição espacial da hanseníase e as incapacidades em menores de 15 anos de idade em Cuiabá. Métodos: Estudo ecológico realizado na cidade de Cuiabá, Mato Grosso, Brasil. A população do estudo foi composta de casos de hanseníase em menores de 15 anos notificados no Sistema de Informações de Agravos de Notificação, entre os anos de 2008 e 2018. Com base nos endereços residenciais, os casos foram georreferenciados. Na análise da distribuição espacial dos casos, foi utilizada a estimativa da densidade de Kernel e, posteriormente, aplicada a estatística de varredura espacial, espaço-temporal e variação espacial nas tendências temporais. Resultados: Foram notificados 514 casos de hanseníase em menores de 15 anos em Cuiabá, com percentual de 10,1% de casos com grau de incapacidade física 1 e 2,3% com grau de incapacidade física 2 no momento do diagnóstico. Com as técnicas de varredura espacial e espaço-temporal, foram identificados aglomerados de risco para hanseníase nas regiões norte, oeste, leste e sul de Cuiabá, e com a técnica de variação espacial nas tendências temporais foi identificado um aglomerado na região oeste de Cuiabá. Conclusão: Em Cuiabá, os casos de hanseníase em menores de 15 anos com incapacidades estavam distribuídos em toda a extensão urbana da cidade, com maior densidade de casos nas regiões norte e oeste, seguida da região leste. Os aglomerados de maior risco relativo foram identificados nas regiões leste e oeste, caracterizadas por apresentar baixo e médio níveis de renda.

ABSTRACT Objective This study aimed to analyze the spatial distribution of leprosy and disabilities in children under 15 years of age in Cuiabá. Methods Ecological study carried out in the city of Cuiabá, Mato Grosso, Brazil. The study population consisted of leprosy cases in children under 15 years old notified in the Notifiable Diseases Information System, between 2008 and 2018. Based on residential addresses, cases were georeferenced. In the analysis of the spatial distribution of the cases, the estimation of the Kernel density was used and, later, the statistics of spatial, spatio-temporal and Spatial Variation in Temporal Trends were applied. Results 514 cases of leprosy were reported in children under 15 years of age in Cuiabá, with a percentage of 10.1% of cases with degree of physical disability 1 and 2.3% with degree of physical disability 2 at the time of diagnosis. With the techniques of spatial and spatio-temporal scanning, clusters of risk for leprosy were identified in the North, West, East and South regions of Cuiabá, and with the technique of Spatial Variation in Temporal Trends, a cluster was identified in the West region of Cuiabá. Conclusion In Cuiabá, cases of leprosy in children under 15 years of age with disabilities were distributed throughout the urban area of the city, with the highest density of cases in the North and West regions, followed by the East region. The clusters with the highest Relative Risk were identified in the East and West regions, characterized by having low and medium income levels

Temporal evolution and spatial distribution of leprosy in a municipality with low endemicity in São Paulo state, Brazil. / Evolução temporal e distribuição espacial da hanseníase em município de baixa endemicidade no estado de São Paulo.

OBJECTIVE: To analyze the spatial and temporal distribution of leprosy in a scenario of low endemicity in the state of São Paulo, Brazil. METHODS: Ecological study with leprosy cases in Ribeirão Preto, between 2006 to 2016. The temporal trend of leprosy detection was verified through the decomposition of time series and identified areas of high and low occurrence of the disease using the Getis-Ord Gi* technique. RESULTS: There were 890 cases, and the detection rate showed an increasing trend in the period from 2011 to 2015, with an average growth of 1% per month. Areas of high occurrence of the disease were identified in the northern region of the city (99% and 95% confidence). CONCLUSION: The temporal analysis showed that the rate of detection of leprosy presented an increasing trend, and the spatial analysis showed that the region of the municipality with the highest occurrence of the disease is characterized by presenting the greatest social inequalities.

Evolução temporal e distribuição espacial da hanseníase em município de baixa endemicidade no estado de São Paulo / Evolución temporal y distribución espacial de la lepra en una ciudad de baja endemia en el estado de São Paulo, Brasil / Temporal evolution and spatial distribution of leprosy in a municipality with low endemicity in São Paulo state, Brazil

Objetivo: Analisar a distribuição espacial e temporal da hanseníase em cenário de baixa endemicidade no estado de São Paulo, Brasil. Métodos: Estudo ecológico, sobre casos de hanseníase notificados no município de Ribeirão Preto, entre 2006 e 2016. A tendência temporal da taxa de detecção de hanseníase foi verificada mediante decomposição de séries temporais, e identificadas as áreas de alta e de baixa ocorrência da doença utilizando-se a técnica Getis-Ord Gi*. Resultados: Foram registrados 890 casos, e a taxa de detecção apresentou uma tendência crescente no período analisado, com crescimento médio de 1% ao mês. Identificaram-se áreas de alta ocorrência da doença na região norte do município (99% e 95% de confiança). Conclusão: A taxa de detecção de hanseníase apresentou tendência temporal crescente, e a análise espacial permitiu visualizar que a região do município com maior ocorrência da doença se caracteriza por apresentar as maiores desigualdades sociais.

Objetivo: Analizar la distribución espacial y temporal de la lepra en un escenario de baja endemicidad en el estado de São Paulo, Brasil. Métodos: Estudio ecológico con casos de lepra en Ribeirão Preto, entre 2006 y 2016. La tendencia temporal de la detección de la lepra se verificó a través de la descomposición de series de tiempo e identificaron áreas de alta y baja ocurrencia utilizando la técnica Getis-Ord Gi*. Resultados: Fueron 890 casos y la tasa de detección mostró una tendencia creciente en el período de 2011 a 2015, con un crecimiento promedio de 1% mensual. Se identificaron áreas de alta ocurrencia de la enfermedad en la región norte de la ciudad (99% y 95% de confianza). Conclusión: El análisis temporal mostró que la tasa de detección de lepra presentó una tendencia creciente y el análisis espacial mostró que la región de la ciudad con mayor ocurrencia de la enfermedad se caracteriza por presentar las mayores desigualdades sociales.

Objective: To analyze the spatial and temporal distribution of leprosy in a scenario of low endemicity in the state of São Paulo, Brazil. Methods: Ecological study with leprosy cases in Ribeirão Preto, between 2006 to 2016. The temporal trend of leprosy detection was verified through the decomposition of time series and identified areas of high and low occurrence of the disease using the Getis-Ord Gi* technique. Results: There were 890 cases, and the detection rate showed an increasing trend in the period from 2011 to 2015, with an average growth of 1% per month. Areas of high occurrence of the disease were identified in the northern region of the city (99% and 95% confidence). Conclusion: The temporal analysis showed that the rate of detection of leprosy presented an increasing trend, and the spatial analysis showed that the region of the municipality with the highest occurrence of the disease is characterized by presenting the greatest social inequalities.

Inequality of gender, age and disabilities due to leprosy and trends in a hyperendemic metropolis: Evidence from an eleven-year time series study in Central-West Brazil.

The present study aimed to investigate the epidemiological situation of leprosy (Hansen's Disease), in a hyperendemic metropolis in the Central-West region of Brazil. We studied trends over eleven years, both in the detection of the disease and in disabilities, analyzing disparities and/or differences regarding gender and age. This is an ecological time series study conducted in Cuiabá, capital of the state of Mato Grosso. The population consisted of patients diagnosed with leprosy between the years 2008 and 2018. The time series of leprosy cases was used, stratifying it according to gender (male and female), disability grade (G0D, G1D, G2D, and not evaluated) and age. The calendar adjustment technique was applied. For modeling the trends, the Seasonal-Trend decomposition procedure based on Loess (STL) was used. We identified 9.739 diagnosed cases, in which 58.37% were male and 87.55% aged between 15 and 59 years. Regarding detection according to gender, there was a decrease among women and an increase in men. The study shows an increasing trend in disabilities in both genders, which may be related to the delay in diagnosis. There was also an increasing number of cases that were not assessed for disability at the time of diagnosis, which denotes the quality of the services.

Social inequalities and their association with the leprosy burden in a Brazilian city of low endemicity: An ecological study.

OBJECTIVE: To analyse the association between social inequalities and the leprosy burden in a low endemicity scenario in the state of São Paulo, Brazil. METHODS: This ecological study was carried out in the city of Ribeirão Preto, state of São Paulo, Brazil, considering leprosy cases notified from 2006 to 2016. Regarding social inequalities, dimensions related to high household density, literacy, home occupation conditions, health conditions, household income, ethnicity and age were considered. The generalised additive model for location, scale and shape (GAMLSS) was used to verify the association between the social inequalities and leprosy burden. RESULTS: The increase in men and women with no education and people with an income of 1 to 2 minimum wages was associated with a relative increase in the number of leprosy cases (7.37%, 7.10% and 2.44%, respectively). Regarding the ethnicity variables, the increase in the proportion of men (black) and women (mixed race) with no schooling was associated with a relative increase in the number of cases of the disease (10.77% and 4.02%, respectively). Finally, for people of mixed race or ethnicity, the increase in the proportion of households with 1/2 to 1 minimum wage was related to a relative decrease in the total number of cases (-4.90%). CONCLUSION: The results show that the determinants associated with the increase in leprosy cases are similar to those in Brazilian hyperendemic regions, and that even in cities with low endemicity, social inequality is one of the main determinants of the disease.

Trends and forecasts of leprosy for a hyperendemic city from Brazil's northeast: Evidence from an eleven-year time-series analysis.

This study's objective was to estimate the temporal trends of leprosy according to sex and age groups, as well as to estimate and predict the progression of the disease in a hyperendemic city located in the northeast of Brazil. This ecological time-series study was conducted in Imperatriz, Maranhão, Brazil. Leprosy cases diagnosed between 2006 and 2016 were included. Detection rates stratified by sex and age groups were estimated. The study of temporal trends was accomplished using the Seasonal-Trend Decomposition method and temporal modeling of detection rates using linear seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average model according to Box and Jenkins method. Trend forecasts were performed for the 2017-2020 period. A total of 3,212 cases of leprosy were identified, the average incidence among men aged between 30 and 59 years old was 201.55/100,000 inhabitants and among women in the same age group was 135.28/100,000 inhabitants. Detection rates in total and by sex presented a downward trend, though rates stratified according to sex and age presented a growing trend among men aged less than 15 years old and among women aged 60 years old or over. The final models selected in the time-series analysis show the forecasts of total detection rates and rates for men and women presented a downward trend for the 2017-2020 period. Even though the forecasts show a downward trend in Imperatriz, the city is unlikely to meet a significant decrease of the disease burden by 2020.