Causes of Death among Persons Affected by Leprosy in Korea, 2010-2013.

In addition to the complications of leprosy, people affected by leprosy (PALs) can suffer from chronic diseases. We evaluated the recent pattern of deaths among Korean PALs and compared it with that in the general population. We analyzed the death certificate data of 1,359 PALs from 2010 through 2013. The all-cause and cause-specific standardized mortality ratio (SMR) and standardized mortality with 95% CI were calculated. Malignancy had the highest standardized mortality, with 130.9 deaths per 100,000 persons, followed by cardiovascular diseases (CVDs; 85.5 deaths) and respiratory diseases (38.2 deaths). Of malignancies, liver cancer caused the greatest number of cancer deaths (40.0 deaths). The all-cause mortality of PALs was significantly lower than that in the general population, corresponding to an SMR of 0.84 (95% CI 0.79-0.88). Deaths from malignancy and CVDs were significantly lower, corresponding to SMRs (95% CIs) of 0.88 (0.79-0.98) and 0.75 (0.67-0.84), respectively. The death rates for lung and stomach cancers were lower, whereas mortality due to liver cancer was higher, with an SMR of 1.79 (95% CI 1.43-2.22). Except for liver cancer and infection, the causes of mortality of PALs tend to be lower than that in the general population. The most common underlying cause of death in PALs was stroke, followed by ischemic heart disease, liver cancer, and pneumonia.

Tendência temporal e distribuição espacial da mortalidade relacionada à hanseníase no estado do Tocantins, 2000-2015 / Las tendencias temporales y la distribución espacial de la mortalidad relacionada con la lepra en el estado de Tocantins, Brasil, 2000-2015 / Temporal trends and spatial distribution of leprosy-related mortality in the state of Tocantins, Brazil, 2000-2015

Objetivo: relatar descrever as tendências temporais e padrões de distribuição espacial dos óbitos relacionados à hanseníase no estado do Tocantins, Brasil, 2000-2015. Métodos: estudo baseado em dados do Sistema de Informações sobre Mortalidade (SIM); realizou-se análise de tendência temporal dos coeficientes de mortalidade pela regressão joinpoint e análise espacial descritiva utilizando-se os 139 municípios do estado como unidades geográficas de análise. Resultados: foram identificados 201 óbitos relacionados à hanseníase no Tocantins; o coeficiente médio de mortalidade foi de 0,7 óbitos/100 mil habitantes; a mortalidade apresentou tendência de aumento significativo (annual percentual change (APC) de 5,4% - IC95% 2,0;8,9); o coeficiente de mortalidade bruto médio anual variou de 0,00 a 6,83 óbitos/100 mil hab., enquanto o indicador suavizado variou de 0,00 a 2,42 óbitos/100 mil hab. Conclusão: a mortalidade por hanseníase apresentou tendência de aumento e distribuição espacial heterogênea no Tocantins, com a necessidade de fortalecimento das medidas de vigilância e controle da doença.

Objetivo: describir las tendencias temporales y los patrones de distribución espacial de las muertes relacionadas con la lepra en el estado de Tocantins, Brasil, 2000-2015. Métodos: estudio basado en datos del Sistema de Información de Mortalidad (SIM); análisis de la tendencia temporal de los coeficientes de mortalidad mediante la regresión de los puntos de inflexión y el análisis espacial descriptivo utilizando las 139 municipalidades del estado como unidades geográficas de análisis. Resultados: se identificaron 201 muertes relacionadas con la lepra en Tocantins; el coeficiente de mortalidad promedio fue de 0.7 muertes/100 mil habitantes; la mortalidad tendió a aumentar significativamente (Cambio porcentual anual de 5.4% - IC 95% 2.0; 8.9); el coeficiente de mortalidad bruto anual promedio varió de 0.00 a 6.83 muertes/100 mil habitantes, mientras que el indicador suavizado varió de 0.00 a 2.42 muertes/100 mil habitantes. Conclusión: la mortalidad por lepra mostró una tendencia de aumento y una distribución espacial heterogénea y la necesidad de fortalecer las medidas de control de la enfermedad.

Objective: to describe temporal trends and spatial distribution patterns of leprosy-related deaths in the state of Tocantins, Brazil, 2000-2015. Methods: this study was based on Mortality Information System (SIM) data; mortality coefficient temporal trend analysis was performed using joinpoint regression and descriptive spatial analysis, taking the state's 139 municipalities as geographic units of analysis. Results: 201 leprosy-related deaths were identified in Tocantins; average mortality coefficient was 0.7 deaths/100,000 inhabitants; mortality tended to increase significantly (5.4% Annual Percentage Change - 95% CI 2.0; 8.9); the average annual crude mortality coefficient ranged from 0.00 to 6.83 deaths/100,000 inhabitants, while the smoothed indicator ranged from 0.00 to 2.42 deaths/100,000 inhabitants. Conclusion: leprosy mortality showed a rising trend and heterogeneous spatial distribution in Tocantins, with the need to strengthen leprosy surveillance and control measures.

Inequalities in health by regime of affiliation to the health system in events of obligatory notification, Colombia, 2015 / Desigualdades en salud según régimen de afiliación y eventos notificados al Sistema de Vigilancia (Sivigila) en Colombia, 2015

Introduction: Inequalities in the health field are caused by the differences in the social and economic conditions, that influence the disease risk and the measures taken to treat the disease. Objective: We aimed to estimate the social inequalities in health in Colombia, according to the type of affiliation to the health system as a proxy of socioeconomic status. Materials and methods: We conducted a retrospective descriptive analysis calculating incidence rates age and sex adjusted for all mandatory reporting events using the affiliation regime (subsidized and contributory) as a socioeconomic proxy. Estimates were made at departmental level for 2015. Social inequalities were calculated in terms of absolute and relative gaps. Results: We found social inequalities in the occurrence of mandatory reporting events in population affiliated to the Colombian subsidized regime (poor population). In this population, 82.31 cases of Plasmodium falciparum malaria per 100,000 affiliates were reported more than those reported in the contributory regime. Regarding the relative gap, belonging to the subsidized regime increased by 31.74 times the risk of dying from malnutrition in children under 5 years of age. Other events such as those related to sexual and reproductive health (maternal mortality, gestational syphilis and congenital syphilis); neglected diseases and communicable diseases related to poverty (leprosy and tuberculosis), also showed profound inequalities. Conclusion: In Colombia there are inequalities by regime of affiliation to the health system. Measured socioeconomic status was a predictor of increased morbidity and premature mortality.

Introducción. Las desigualdades en salud se generan por diferencias en las condiciones sociales y económicas, lo cual influye en el riesgo de enfermar y la forma de enfrentar la enfermedad. Objetivo. Evaluar las desigualdades sociales en salud en Colombia, utilizando el tipo de afiliación al sistema de salud como un parámetro representativo (proxy) de la condición socioeconómica. Materiales y métodos. Se trata de un análisis descriptivo y retrospectivo en el que se calcularon las tasas específicas de incidencia, ajustadas por edad y sexo, para eventos de notificación obligatoria, utilizando el régimen de afiliación (subsidiado o contributivo) como variable representativa del nivel socioeconómico. Las estimaciones se hicieron a nivel departamental para el 2015. Las desigualdades sociales se calcularon en términos de brechas absolutas y relativas. Resultados. Se evidencian desigualdades sociales en la ocurrencia de eventos de notificación obligatoria, las cuales desfavorecen a la población afiliada al régimen subsidiado. En esta población, se reportaron 82,31 casos más de malaria Plasmodium falciparum por 100.000 afiliados, que los notificados en el régimen contributivo. Respecto a la brecha relativa, el pertenecer al régimen subsidiado se asocia con un aumento de 31,74 veces del riesgo de morir por desnutrición en menores de cinco años. Otros eventos también presentaron profundas desigualdades, como los relacionados con la salud sexual y reproductiva (mortalidad materna, sífilis gestacional y sífilis congénita), las enfermedades infecciosas y las enfermedades transmisibles relacionadas con la pobreza (lepra y tuberculosis). Conclusión. El tipo de afiliación al Sistema General de Seguridad Social en Salud en Colombia es un buen indicador del nivel socioeconómico, y es un factor predictor de mayor morbilidad y mortalidad prematura asociada con los factores determinantes sociales de la salud.

[Deaths with leprosy as the underlying cause recorded in Brazil: use of data base linkage to enhance information]. / Óbitos registrados com causa básica hanseníase no Brasil: uso do relacionamento de bases de dados para melhoria da informação.

This study sought to describe the characteristics of deaths with leprosy as the underlying cause recorded in the Mortality Information System (SIM) and compare these characteristics with the groups of cases where the cause of death was reported, or failed to be reported, in the National Case Registration Database (Sinan). Deaths with leprosy as the underlying cause occurring in Brazil in the 2004-2009 period, and cases of leprosy from 1975 to 2010 were included. The probabilistic bases of SIM and Sinan were compared. Of the 1,463 deaths from leprosy recorded in SIM, 44.2% were not recorded in Sinan. Of the total number of deaths, the majority were men (72.5%), aged 60 or older (56.6%), occurring in hospitals (65.3%) and with due care (45.8%). Of the 820 deaths identified in Sinan, 92% were patients with multibacillary disease, 45.2% were discharged as cured by Sinan and 38.9% died. Deaths due to leprosy were found on SIM that were not notified to Sinan. The data base linkage enabled identification of ancillary records and inconsistencies between the systems.

Óbitos registrados com causa básica hanseníase no Brasil: uso do relacionamento de bases de dados para melhoria da informação / Deaths with leprosy as the underlying cause recorded in Brazil: use of data base linkage to enhance information

O presente estudo objetivou descrever as características dos óbitos que tiveram como causa básica a hanseníase, registrados no Sistema de Informações sobre Mortalidade (SIM), e comparar estas características entre os grupos de óbitos cujos casos foram notificados e não notificados no Sistema de Informação sobre Agravos de Notificação (Sinan). Foram incluídos os óbitos com causa básica hanseníase, ocorridos no Brasil no período 2004-2009, e os casos registrados de hanseníase entre 1975-2010. Realizou-se o relacionamento probabilístico das bases do SIM e Sinan. Dos 1.463 óbitos por hanseníase registrados no SIM, 44,2% não foram encontrados no Sinan. Do total dos óbitos, a maioria foi de homens (72,5%), com 60 ou mais anos de idade (56,6%), ocorridos em hospitais (65,3%) e com assistência (45,8%). Dos 820 óbitos identificados no Sinan, 92% foram multibacilares, 45,2% tinham alta por cura no Sinan e 38,9%, óbito. Foram encontrados óbitos por hanseníase que estão registrados no SIM, mas não foram notificados no Sinan. O relacionamento das bases permitiu identificação de subregistros e inconsistências entre os sistemas.

This study sought to describe the characteristics of deaths with leprosy as the underlying cause recorded in the Mortality Information System (SIM) and compare these characteristics with the groups of cases where the cause of death was reported, or failed to be reported, in the National Case Registration Database (Sinan). Deaths with leprosy as the underlying cause occurring in Brazil in the 2004-2009 period, and cases of leprosy from 1975 to 2010 were included. The probabilistic bases of SIM and Sinan were compared. Of the 1,463 deaths from leprosy recorded in SIM, 44.2% were not recorded in Sinan. Of the total number of deaths, the majority were men (72.5%), aged 60 or older (56.6%), occurring in hospitals (65.3%) and with due care (45.8%). Of the 820 deaths identified in Sinan, 92% were patients with multibacillary disease, 45.2% were discharged as cured by Sinan and 38.9% died. Deaths due to leprosy were found on SIM that were not notified to Sinan. The data base linkage enabled identification of ancillary records and inconsistencies between the systems.

Causes of death among active leprosy patients in China.

We analyzed the causes of death among active leprosy patients in China, to better understand the disease and improve the quality of services, by performing a retrospective study involving 24 provinces of China. Information about patients with active leprosy who were not clinically cured and died between January 1, 2000, and December 31, 2005, was collected by professionals at county levels. A total of 524 deaths were analyzed. The leading cause of death was suicide. There were 86 patients (16%) who died at a mean of 21 ± 19 months after starting multi-drug therapy (MDT). The second and third leading causes of death were cardiovascular disease and organ failure associated with advanced age, respectively. Two hundred and twenty-one patients (42%) died within one year of beginning MDT. The second month of MDT was the riskiest for newly treated patients; approximately 20% of patients succumbed to liver failure, 33% to dapsone (diaminodiphenylsulfone/DDS) allergy, and 27% to renal insufficiency during this period. Among 143 deaths related to leprosy, 37 (26%) occurred within three months of starting MDT. We recommend that newly diagnosed patients should be provided with no more than two months of MDT blister packs.

The 2008 annual report of the Regional Infant and Child Mortality Review Committee.

The 2008 annual report of the Regional Infant and Child Mortality Review Committee (RICMRC) is presented. This committee has as its mission the review of infant and child deaths so that information can be transformed into action to protect young lives. The 2008 review area includes South Dakota's Minnehaha, Turner, Lincoln, Moody, Lake, McCook, Union, Hansen, Miner and Brookings counties. Within our region in 2008, there were six infant deaths labeled as Sudden Unexpected Infant Deaths (SUID), of which two met the criteria for the Sudden Infant Death Syndrome (SIDS). The four non-SIDS SUID deaths all represented deaths where asphyxia from unsafe sleeping environments could not be excluded. In addition, there were two accidental deaths from asphyxia in unsafe sleeping enviroments. We need to continue to promote the "Back to Sleep" campaign message of not only placing infants to sleep on their backs, but also making sure infants are put down to sleep on safe, firm, sleeping surfaces and are appropriately dressed for the ambient temperature. Parents need to be aware of the potential hazards of bed-sharing with their infants. In both 2007 and 2008, four children died in motor vehicle crashes, none of which were alcohol-related. Three fire-related childhood deaths were associated with one house fire involving a nonfunctional smoke alarm and a sleeping arrangement without an easy egress from a fire. Since 1997, the RICMRC has sought to achieve its mission to "review infant and child deaths so that information can be transformed into action to protect young lives". For 2008, the committee reviewed 21 deaths from Minnehaha, Turner, Lincoln, Moody, Lake, McCook, Union, Hansen, Miner and Brookings counties that met the following criteria: Children under the age of 18 dying subsequent to hospital discharge following delivery. Children who either died in these counties from causes sustained in them, or residents who died elsewhere from causes sustained in the ten-county region.

The 2007 annual report of the Regional Infant and Child Mortality Review Committee.

The mission of the Regional Infant and Child Mortality Review Committee (RICMRC) is to review infant and child deaths so that information can be transformed into action to protect young lives. The 2007 review area includes South Dakota's Minnehaha, Turner, Lincoln, Moody, Lake, McCook, Union, Hansen, Miner and Brookings counties. Although there were no deaths in 2007 that met the criteria of the Sudden Infant Death Syndrome (SIDS) in our region, there were three infant deaths associated with unsafe sleeping environments (including adult co-sleeping) that either caused or potentially may have caused these infants' deaths. We need to continue to promote the "Back to Sleep" campaign message of not only placing infants to sleep on their backs, but also making sure infants are put down to sleep on safe, firm sleeping surfaces and that they are appropriately dressed for the ambient temperature. Parents need to be aware of the potential hazards of co-sleeping with their infants. Compared to nine such deaths in 2006, only four deaths in 2007 involved motor-vehicle crashes, none of which were alcohol related. Two drowning deaths illustrated the rapidity in which even momentary caregiver distractions can lead to deaths in children in and around water. Since 1997 the Regional Infant and Child Mortality Review Committee (RICMRC) has sought to achieve its mission to "review infant and child deaths so that information can be transformed into action to protect young lives." For 2007, the committee reviewed 25 deaths from Minnehaha, Turner, Lincoln, Moody, Lake, McCook, Union, Hansen, Miner and Brookings counties that met the following criteria: Children under the age of 18 dying subsequent to hospital discharge following delivery. Children who either died in these counties from causes sustained in them, or residents who died elsewhere from causes sustained in the 10-county region. The report that follows reviews the committee's activities for 2007. No deaths meeting the criteria for Sudden Infant Death Syndrome (SIDS) occurred in the review region. The committee has observed a stable decline in the number of deaths due to the SIDS as compared to the eight SIDS or possible SIDS deaths occurring in 1999. Unfortunately, however, there were three infant deaths in SIDS-like settings where asphyxia could not be excluded. Although the committee strives to be consistent year to year in its investigation protocols, we have noticed that the number of deaths classified as "undetermined" has been increasing over the last few years (starting in 1997: 1, 2, 1, 0, 2, 1, 2, 0, 5, 4, 5). Although it is possible that deaths certified as SIDS in earlier years may now be classified as undetermined due to asphyxial risks, we may also be seeing an increase in infants sleeping in unsafe environments. Our data may be mirroring a national trend amongst death investigators to increasingly recognize asphyxial risks in infant death scenes. Infants co-sleeping with adults (two deaths in 2007) may represent a risk factor not as frequently seen as in prior years. We will watch this trend closely in the future. The Committee strenuously advocates that the Back to Sleep message include placing infants on their back to sleep, avoiding soft bedding for infants, making parents aware of the potential hazards of co-sleeping with young infants, and eliminating both pre- and post-delivery fetal/infant cigarette smoke exposure. a decrease in youth motor-vehicle crash deaths to four versus the nine seen in 2006.2 Three of those dying in motor-vehicle crashes in 2007 were not wearing seat belts. The committee continues to feel that some of these deaths could have been prevented had these children been wearing a seat belt. Compared to four alcohol-related motor-vehicle crash fatalities in 2006, no deaths in 2007 were alcohol related. The committee, however, is painfully aware that even one crash involving multiple occupants can rapidly skew the apparent improvements in 2007 in the wrong direction. In 2007, two youths, both with disabilities, drown. One drown in a bath tub and the other in an outdoor pool. It is unfortunate that these deaths bring home the message that even the smallest, momentary lapses in supervision of these children can have fatal consequences. Fortunately, the child and infant homicide rate in our region is very low. Unfortunately, however, one infant did die as a result of being assaulted and shaken by one of its parents. There remains a need for the community at large, and the medical community specifically, to address issues of parental anger management, particularly when caregiver frustration is directed at children.

The 2006 annual report of the Regional Infant and Child Mortality Review Committee.

The 2006 annual report of the Regional Infant and Child Mortality Review Committee (RICMRC) is attached. This committee's mission is to review infant and child deaths so that information can be transformed into action to protect young lives. The 2006 review region includes South Dakota's Minnehaha, Turner, Lincoln, Moody, Lake, McCook, Union, Hansen, Miner and Brookings counties. Although there was only one death meeting the criteria for Sudden Infant Death Syndrome (SIDS) in our region, there were five infant deaths associated with unsafe sleeping environments that either caused or potentially caused these infants' deaths. We need to continue to promote the "Back to Sleep" campaign message of not only placing infants to sleep on their backs, but also making sure infants are put down to sleep on safe, firm sleeping surfaces and dressed appropriately for safe room temperatures.

The 2005 Annual Report of the Regional Infant and Child Mortality Review Committee.

The annual report of the Regional Infant and Child Mortality Review Committee (RICMRC) is attached. This Committee has as its mission the review of infant and child deaths so that information can be transformed into action to protect young lives. The 2005 review area includes South Dakota's Minnehaha, Turner, Lincoln, Moody, Lake, McCook, Union, Hansen, Miner, and Brookings counties. Although there was only one death meeting the criteria of the Sudden Infant Death Syndrome (SIDS) in our region, there were four infant deaths associated with soft, unsafe, sleeping surfaces where asphyxia could not be excluded. We need to continue to promote the "Back to Sleep" campaign message of not only placing infants to sleep on their backs, but also making sure infants are put down to sleep on safe, firm, sleeping surfaces. Nine of ten accidental deaths were related to motor vehicle crashes (versus three in 2004). Unlike previous years, there were no fire-related deaths. In 2005 there were two child abuse related homicides and one teenage suicide. The RICMRC invites other communities to join in its efforts to review deaths to prevent potential life threatening hazards to children in their local environs.

A study of mortality in dermatology.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Certain dermatological conditions are life-threatening and can cause mortality. The aim of this study is to find out the dermatological diseases leading to death in our indoor patients. METHODS: A record-based retrospective descriptive study of dermatology cases who died during the period of 1995 to 2001. RESULTS: The total number of cases analyzed was thirty-seven. There were 24 males and 13 females. The maximum number of deaths occurred in the age group 61-70. Vesiculobullous disorders were the commonest cause of death, found in 18 cases (48.6%), followed by drug reactions in 5 (13.5%), malignancies in 5 (13.5%) and collagen vascular disease in 2 cases ((5.40%). Pemphigus was the commonest fatal vesiculobullous disorder (13 cases - 35.13%), and toxic epidermal necrolysis the commonest drug reaction (3 cases - 8.10%). CONCLUSION: Area of skin involvement, electrolyte imbalance and septicemia were important factors leading to death in pemphigus and toxic epidermal necrolysis. We advocate that such patients should be managed in burns unit or ICU units.

Caracteristicas epidemiologicas do estado da Paraiba / Epidemiological characteristics of Paraiba State

Este trabalho apresenta algumas caracteristicas epidemiologicas do estado da Paraiba no ano de 1999: mortalidade, nascidos vivos e morbidade. Dentre as principais causas de obitos do estado se encontram as doencas do aparelho circulatorio, seguidas das causas externas. No que se refere as caracteristicas dos nascidos vivos e das maes residentes em 1997 e 1998 na Paraiba, merece destaque que apenas 42 (por cento) das mulheres realizaram o minimo de seis consultas, conforme preconizado pelo Ministerio da Saude (MS), e que 35 (por cento) dos partos foram cesareos. Quanto as doencas transmissiveis de notificacao compulsoria, as que apresentam as maiores incidencias, em 199 foram a dengue, a tuberculose, as hepatites virais, as doencas sexualmente transmissiveis (DSTs), a colera e a hanseniase. A dengue, entretanto, superou todas as doencas, em numero de casos notificados e incidencia, embora tenha sido registrada uma queda, da ordem de 77 (por cento), no numero minimo de casos, em relacao a 1998

Decreased survival of HTLV-I carriers in leprosy patients from the Democratic Republic of the Congo: a historical prospective study.

In this historical prospective study using sera stored for 22 years, we investigated the effect of HTLV-I infection on survival in a population of leprosy patients in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (formerly Zaire). We also determined the distribution of HTLV-I by subpopulation, age, and gender. Stored sera taken from a population of leprosy patients and controls in 1969 were tested for HTLV-I. Follow-up survival data on these patients were obtained in 1991. The sera collected in 1969 from 520 individuals was used to determine the prevalence of HTLV-I. Included in this number were 328 patients resident in the sanatorium. Survival and other data were available for 327 of these. A multivariate survival analysis using a logistic regression model was performed to evaluate the influence of HTLV-I status, age, type of leprosy, gender, duration of hospitalization, and ethnic group on survival. The overall prevalence of HTLV-I among the 520 individuals in the prevalence study was 34%, with 37.4% in the leprosy group and 25.2% in the control group (p < 0.01). Multivariate analysis using logistic regression showed that females of the Mongo and Ngombe ethnic group taken together were significantly more likely to be infected than the other groups (OR = 3.67, 95% CI: 2.14 to 6.30). A comparison of the death rates directly standardized for age and sex showed that the rate was significantly higher for HTLV-I positive (5.5/100 person-years of observation) compared with HTLV-I negative (3.6/100 person-years of observation). A survival analysis using the Cox model showed a risk ratio of 1.4 (CI: 1.04 to 1.89) for those infected with HTLV-I. An increase in the death rate was associated with HTLV-I infection in leprosy inpatients. The decreased survival associated with HTLV-I infection may result from an increased susceptibility to a variety of diseases.

PIP: Preservation of stored sera collected in 1969 from leprosy patients at a sanatorium in the Democratic Republic of the Congo's Equator Province enabled an analysis of the survival of carriers of human T-cell lymphotropic virus type 1 (HTLV-1). The HTLV-1 prevalence in the sera collected from 377 leprosy patients and 143 controls in 1969 was 34% (37.4% and 25.2%, respectively). Multivariate survival analysis was performed to evaluate the impact of HTLV-1 status, age, type of leprosy, gender, duration of hospitalization, and ethnic group on the survival of leprosy patients. Members of the Mongo ethnic group were more likely than those of the Ngombe ethnic group to be infected. After adjustment for age and sex, mortality was significantly higher among HTLV-1-positive cases (5.5 per 100 person-years of observation) than HTLV-1-negative persons (3.6 per 100 person-years of observation). A survival analysis using the Cox model revealed a mortality risk ratio of 1.4 (95% confidence interval, 1.04-1.89) for HTLV-1-positive individuals. The reduced survival observed in HTLV-1-infected leprosy patients presumably resulted from concomitant increased susceptibility to other diseases.

Leprosy and tuberculosis: the epidemiological consequences of cross-immunity.

OBJECTIVES: This study tested the hypothesis, first proposed by Chaussinand, that individual-level immunity acquired from exposure to tuberculosis may have contributed to the disappearance of leprosy from western Europe. METHODS: The epidemiological consequences of cross-immunity were assessed by the formulation of a mathematical model of the transmission dynamics of tuberculosis and leprosy. RESULTS: The conditions under which Mycobacterium tuberculosis could have eradicated Mycobacterium leprae were derived in terms of the basic reproductive rates of the two infections and the degree of cross-immunity. CONCLUSIONS: If the degree of cross-immunity between two diseases within an individual is known, then the epidemiological consequences of this cross-immunity can be assessed with transmission modeling. The results of this analysis, in combination with previous estimates of the basic reproductive rate of tuberculosis and degree of cross-immunity, imply that tuberculosis could have contributed to the decline of leprosy if the basic reproductive rate of leprosy was low.

The epidemiological transition in an overseas territory: disease mapping in French Polynesia.

During the last 200 years in French Polynesia the people have experienced several dramatic changes in the pathological scene. First the discovery of Tahiti and the surrounding islands at the end of the eighteenth century caused the spread of diseases previously unknown, usually in the form of epidemic outbreaks. In contrast, from the 1860s to soon after the end of the Second World War, health amelioration in French Polynesia was slowly occurring. This constituted a first epidemiological transition in which infectious disease mortality was sharply reduced. The distribution of vaccines, hygiene education and legislation stemmed the long period of some 100 years of demographic disaster and at last the population was able to increase. However for a long time infectious or parasitic diseases remained the main causes of morbidity and mortality. Only from the end of the 1950s has the situation evolved to the present state where morbidity and mortality of the circulatory system and cancer are similar in prevalence to industrialized countries. Diachronistic mapping of some of the most noteworthy diseases is presented to illustrate this last and most important phase of the epidemiological transition.