High detection rate of new cases of multibacillary leprosy in Mato Grosso do Sul, Brazil: an observational study from 2001-2015.

Leprosy remains a public health problem in Brazil, and the Mato Grosso do Sul State (MS) had the seventh highest rate of detection of new cases in the country in 2015 (26.59 per 100,000 inhabitants) which was classified as very high. This work aimed to determine the epidemiological characteristics of leprosy in MS. Descriptive statistics were performed with data from the Information System on Diseases of Compulsory Declaration (SINAN) between 2001 and 2015, with all patients included in the system serving as the sample. Clinical forms of multibacillary (MB) leprosy predominated in MS during the study period, with a clear positive trend from 2009 to 2015 and a peak in the detection rate of new cases (NCDR) in 2014 corresponding to 40.39 per 100,000 population (p<0.001). The most affected groups were men (56.7%) aged 20-59 years (70.52%), an economically active population. We observed that Northern MS had the highest overall NCDR in the State. In cities bordering other countries, NCDRs were significantly lower than in those of other analyzed cities. There was no dependency ratio correlating NCDRs in cities with higher or lower indexes with basic care coverage (p=0.799) and human development index (p=0.887). In conclusion, the large number of patients with MB leprosy indicates that the diagnosis of leprosy is delayed in MS, perhaps due to difficulties related to diagnostic methods. This situation contributes to the continuing prevalence of leprosy in MS.

Leprosy New Case Detection Trends and the Future Effect of Preventive Interventions in Pará State, Brazil: A Modelling Study.

BACKGROUND: Leprosy remains a public health problem in Brazil. Although the overall number of new cases is declining, there are still areas with a high disease burden, such as Pará State in the north of the country. We aim to predict future trends in new case detection rate (NCDR) and explore the potential impact of contact tracing and chemoprophylaxis on NCDR in Pará State. METHODS: We used SIMCOLEP, an existing individual-based model for the transmission and control of M. leprae, in a population structured by households. The model was quantified to simulate the population and observed NCDR of leprosy in Pará State for the period 1990 to 2014. The baseline scenario was the current control program, consisting of multidrug therapy, passive case detection, and active case detection from 2003 onwards. Future projections of the NCDR were made until 2050 given the continuation of the current control program (i.e. baseline). We further investigated the potential impact of two scenarios for future control of leprosy: 1) discontinuation of contact tracing; and 2) continuation of current control in combination with chemoprophylaxis. Both scenarios started in 2015 and were projected until 2050. RESULTS: The modelled NCDR in Pará State after 2014 shows a continuous downward trend, reaching the official elimination target of 10 cases per 100,000 population by 2030. The cessation of systematic contact tracing would not result in a higher NCDR in the long run. Systematic contact tracing in combination with chemoprophylaxis for contacts would reduce the NCDR by 40% and bring attainment of the elimination target two years forward to 2028. CONCLUSION: The NCDR of leprosy continues to decrease in Pará State. Elimination of leprosy as a public health problem could possibly be achieved around 2030, if the current control program is maintained. Providing chemoprophylaxis would decrease the NCDR further and would bring elimination forward by two years.

Quantitative analyses and modelling to support achievement of the 2020 goals for nine neglected tropical diseases.

Quantitative analysis and mathematical models are useful tools in informing strategies to control or eliminate disease. Currently, there is an urgent need to develop these tools to inform policy to achieve the 2020 goals for neglected tropical diseases (NTDs). In this paper we give an overview of a collection of novel model-based analyses which aim to address key questions on the dynamics of transmission and control of nine NTDs: Chagas disease, visceral leishmaniasis, human African trypanosomiasis, leprosy, soil-transmitted helminths, schistosomiasis, lymphatic filariasis, onchocerciasis and trachoma. Several common themes resonate throughout these analyses, including: the importance of epidemiological setting on the success of interventions; targeting groups who are at highest risk of infection or re-infection; and reaching populations who are not accessing interventions and may act as a reservoir for infection,. The results also highlight the challenge of maintaining elimination 'as a public health problem' when true elimination is not reached. The models elucidate the factors that may be contributing most to persistence of disease and discuss the requirements for eventually achieving true elimination, if that is possible. Overall this collection presents new analyses to inform current control initiatives. These papers form a base from which further development of the models and more rigorous validation against a variety of datasets can help to give more detailed advice. At the moment, the models' predictions are being considered as the world prepares for a final push towards control or elimination of neglected tropical diseases by 2020.

Epidemiological aspects of leprosy in Juazeiro-BA, from 2002 to 2012

Abstract: BACKGROUND: Leprosy is an infectious disease caused by Mycobacterium leprae, able to infect large numbers of people. This work is relevant to Juazeiro-BA, a hyper-endemic area for leprosy, since unravel the behavior of the disease in the area, may suggest the decision making for sectors of surveillance, establishing strategies, organizing and evaluating programs and services. OBJECTIVES: To analyze the epidemiology of leprosy in Juazeiro-BA, from 2002 to 2012. METHODS: A descriptive, cross-sectional study was conducted based in data of the Diseases Notification System, assigned by the service of Epidemiology from Juazeiro-BA, between 2002 and 2012. RESULTS: 1,916 new cases of leprosy were detected between 2002 and 2012, of which 921 (48.07%) represented male sex, 995 (51.93%) female, and there was a reduction in the incidence rate of leprosy per 100,000 inhabitants. Most carriers were brown individuals, with low levels of education, living in the urban area, being more prevalent in the economically active age group. Through statistical analysis we found that there are more chances of developing sequelae among men, and multibacillary individuals older than 45 years. CONCLUSIONS: The work serves to direct efforts to control this disease, and highlights the importance of active search for new cases to achieve an early diagnosis, reducing the number of sequels and allowing breaking the chain of disease transmission.

Epidemiological aspects of leprosy in Juazeiro-BA, from 2002 to 2012.

BACKGROUND: Leprosy is an infectious disease caused by Mycobacterium leprae, able to infect large numbers of people. This work is relevant to Juazeiro-BA, a hyper-endemic area for leprosy, since unravel the behavior of the disease in the area, may suggest the decision making for sectors of surveillance, establishing strategies, organizing and evaluating programs and services. OBJECTIVES: To analyze the epidemiology of leprosy in Juazeiro-BA, from 2002 to 2012. METHODS: A descriptive, cross-sectional study was conducted based in data of the Diseases Notification System, assigned by the service of Epidemiology from Juazeiro-BA, between 2002 and 2012. RESULTS: 1,916 new cases of leprosy were detected between 2002 and 2012, of which 921 (48.07%) represented male sex, 995 (51.93%) female, and there was a reduction in the incidence rate of leprosy per 100,000 inhabitants. Most carriers were brown individuals, with low levels of education, living in the urban area, being more prevalent in the economically active age group. Through statistical analysis we found that there are more chances of developing sequelae among men, and multibacillary individuals older than 45 years. CONCLUSIONS: The work serves to direct efforts to control this disease, and highlights the importance of active search for new cases to achieve an early diagnosis, reducing the number of sequels and allowing breaking the chain of disease transmission.

Spatial distribution of leprosy in areas of risk in Vitória, State of Espírito Santo, Brazil, 2005 to 2009.

INTRODUCTION: Leprosy remains a relevant public health issue in Brazil. The objective of this study was to analyze the spatial distribution of new cases of leprosy and to detect areas with higher risks of disease in the City of Vitória. METHODS: The study was ecologically based on the spatial distribution of leprosy in the City of Vitória, State of Espírito Santo between 2005 and 2009. The data sources used came from the available records of the State Health Secretary of Espírito Santo. A global and local empirical Bayesian method was used in the spatial analysis to produce a leprosy risk estimation, and the fluctuation effect was smoothed from the detection coefficients. RESULTS: The study used thematic maps to illustrate that leprosy is distributed heterogeneously between the neighborhoods and that it is possible to identify areas with high risk of disease. The Pearson correlation coefficient of 0.926 (p = 0.001) for the Local Method indicated highly correlated coefficients. The Moran index was calculated to evaluate correlations between the incidences of adjoining districts. CONCLUSIONS: We identified the spatial contexts in which there were the highest incidence rates of leprosy in Vitória during the studied period. The results contribute to the knowledge of the spatial distribution of leprosy in the City of Vitória, which can help establish more cost-effective control strategies because they indicate specific regions and priority planning activities that can interfere with the transmission chain.

Spatial distribution of leprosy in areas of risk in Vitoria, State of Espirito Santo, Brazil, 2005 to 2009

Introduction Leprosy remains a relevant public health issue in Brazil. The objective of this study was to analyze the spatial distribution of new cases of leprosy and to detect areas with higher risks of disease in the City of Vitória. Methods The study was ecologically based on the spatial distribution of leprosy in the City of Vitória, State of Espírito Santo between 2005 and 2009. The data sources used came from the available records of the State Health Secretary of Espírito Santo. A global and local empirical Bayesian method was used in the spatial analysis to produce a leprosy risk estimation, and the fluctuation effect was smoothed from the detection coefficients. Results The study used thematic maps to illustrate that leprosy is distributed heterogeneously between the neighborhoods and that it is possible to identify areas with high risk of disease. The Pearson correlation coefficient of 0.926 (p = 0.001) for the Local Method indicated highly correlated coefficients. The Moran index was calculated to evaluate correlations between the incidences of adjoining districts. Conclusions We identified the spatial contexts in which there were the highest incidence rates of leprosy in Vitória during the studied period. The results contribute to the knowledge of the spatial distribution of leprosy in the City of Vitória, which can help establish more cost-effective control strategies because they indicate specific regions and priority planning activities that can interfere with the transmission chain. .

Leprosy reactions: coinfections as a possible risk factor.

OBJECTIVE: This study aimed to determine the frequency of coinfections in leprosy patients and whether there is a relationship between the presence of coinfections and the development of leprosy reactional episodes. METHOD: A cross-sectional study based on an analysis of the medical records of the patients who were treated at the Leprosy Clinics of the Ribeirão Preto Medical School, University of São Paulo, was conducted from 2000 to 2010. Information was recorded regarding the age, sex, clinical status, WHO classification, treatment, presence of reactions and coinfections. Focal and systemic infections were diagnosed based on the history, physical examination, and laboratory tests. Multinomial logistic regression was used to evaluate the associations between the leprosy reactions and the patients' gender, age, WHO classification and coinfections. RESULTS: Two hundred twenty-five patients were studied. Most of these patients were males (155/225 = 68.8%) of an average age of 49.31±15.92 years, and the most prevalent clinical manifestation was the multibacillary (MB) form (n = 146), followed by the paucibacillary (PB) form (n = 79). Erythema nodosum leprosum (ENL) was more prevalent (78/122 = 63.9%) than the reversal reaction (RR) (44/122 = 36.1%), especially in the MB patients (OR 5.07; CI 2.86-8.99; p<0.0001) who exhibited coinfections (OR 2.26; CI 1.56-3.27; p<0.0001). Eighty-eight (88/225 = 39.1%) patients exhibited coinfections. Oral coinfections were the most prevalent (40/88 = 45.5%), followed by urinary tract infections (17/88 = 19.3%), sinusopathy (6/88 = 6.8%), hepatitis C (6/88 = 6.8%), and hepatitis B (6/88 = 6.8%). CONCLUSIONS: Coinfections may be involved in the development and maintenance of leprosy reactions.

Leprosy reactions: coinfections as a possible risk factor

OBJECTIVE: This study aimed to determine the frequency of coinfections in leprosy patients and whether there is a relationship between the presence of coinfections and the development of leprosy reactional episodes. METHOD: A cross-sectional study based on an analysis of the medical records of the patients who were treated at the Leprosy Clinics of the Ribeirão Preto Medical School, University of São Paulo, was conducted from 2000 to 2010. Information was recorded regarding the age, sex, clinical status, WHO classification, treatment, presence of reactions and coinfections. Focal and systemic infections were diagnosed based on the history, physical examination, and laboratory tests. Multinomial logistic regression was used to evaluate the associations between the leprosy reactions and the patients' gender, age, WHO classification and coinfections. RESULTS: Two hundred twenty-five patients were studied. Most of these patients were males (155/225 = 68.8%) of an average age of 49.31±15.92 years, and the most prevalent clinical manifestation was the multibacillary (MB) form (n = 146), followed by the paucibacillary (PB) form (n = 79). Erythema nodosum leprosum (ENL) was more prevalent (78/122 = 63.9%) than the reversal reaction (RR) (44/122 = 36.1%), especially in the MB patients (OR 5.07; CI 2.86-8.99; p<0.0001) who exhibited coinfections (OR 2.26; CI 1.56-3.27; p,<0.0001). Eighty-eight (88/225 = 39.1%) patients exhibited coinfections. Oral coinfections were the most prevalent (40/88 = 45.5%), followed by urinary tract infections (17/88 = 19.3%), sinusopathy (6/88 = 6.8%), hepatitis C (6/88 = 6.8%), and hepatitis B (6/88 = 6.8%). CONCLUSIONS: Coinfections may be involved in the development and maintenance of leprosy reactions.

[Retrospective study on leprosy relapse in the State of Espírito Santo]. / Estudo retrospectivo de recidiva da hanseníase no Estado do Espírito Santo.

Leprosy relapse is the reappearance of the disease after regular treatment with current regimens and discharge due to cure. In this retrospective and descriptive cohort study, the aim was to evaluate the characteristics of cases of leprosy relapse in the State of Espírito Santo between 2000 and 2005. The investigation strategies consisted of monitoring the SINAN entries, with file analysis and case discussions at the State Reference Center. One hundred and four cases of relapse were studied, representing 1.12% of the new cases detected over this period. The greatest frequency was between 21 and 60 years of age; 59.6% were men; 44.2% presented relapse more than five years after discharge; 66.4% were multibacillary; and 42.2% presented positive bacilloscopy (complete bacilli) and therefore were relapse cases. Negatives bacilloscopy was observed in 57.8%. Prospective studies should be conducted to establish the real relapse rate.

Estudo retrospectivo de recidiva da hanseníase no Estado do Espírito Santo / Retrospective study on leprosy relapse in the State of Espírito Santo

Recidiva de hanseníase é o reaparecimento da doença, após tratamento regular com os esquemas vigentes e alta por cura. Neste estudo de coorte retrospectivo e descritivo o objetivo foi avaliar as características dos casos de recidiva de hanseníase no Estado do Espírito Santo entre 2000 e 2005. As estratégias de investigação foram: monitoramento das entradas no SINAN, análise das fichas e discussão dos casos no Centro de Referência Estadual. Foram estudados 104 casos de recidiva, representando 1,12 por cento em relação aos casos novos diagnosticados no período. A maior freqüência foi entre 21 a 60 anos; 59,6 por cento eram do sexo masculino; 44,2 por cento apresentaram a recidiva após cinco anos da alta; 66,4 por cento eram multibacilares, sendo 42,2 por cento com baciloscopias positivas (bacilos íntegros), portanto recidivas. Baciloscopias negativas foram observadas em 57,8 por cento. Estudos prospectivos devem ser feitos para estabelecimento da taxa real de recidiva.

Leprosy relapse is the reappearance of the disease after regular treatment with current regimens and discharge due to cure. In this retrospective and descriptive cohort study, the aim was to evaluate the characteristics of cases of leprosy relapse in the State of Espírito Santo between 2000 and 2005. The investigation strategies consisted of monitoring the SINAN entries, with file analysis and case discussions at the State Reference Center. One hundred and four cases of relapse were studied, representing 1.12 percent of the new cases detected over this period. The greatest frequency was between 21 and 60 years of age; 59.6 percent were men; 44.2 percent presented relapse more than five years after discharge; 66.4 percent were multibacillary; and 42.2 percent presented positive bacilloscopy (complete bacilli) and therefore were relapse cases. Negatives bacilloscopy was observed in 57.8 percent. Prospective studies should be conducted to establish the real relapse rate.

Increased incidence of leprosy following HAART initiation: a manifestation of the immune reconstitution disease.

A retrospective cohort study was conducted to determine whether the incidence of leprosy varied with the duration of antiretroviral therapy (ART). Between 1992 and 2006, seven cases of leprosy were observed. The incidence of leprosy in untreated patients was 0.7 per 1000 person-years, 13 per 1000 person-years in persons receiving HAART for more than 3 months and 0.9 per 1000 person-years for persons receiving HAART for more than 3 months. The adjusted hazard ratio was 18.5 (95% confidence interval, 1.6-217) with P = 0.02. In tropical areas where HAART is increasingly available, physicians should be aware of the possibility of incident leprosy shortly after HAART initiation.

Fatores preditivos de incapacidades em pacientes com hanseníase / Factores predictivos de incapacidades en pacientes con hanseníasis / Predictive factors of disability in patients with leprosy

OBJETIVO:Analisar os fatores preditivos na evolução do grau de incapacidade em pacientes com hanseníase. MÉTODOS:Foram analisados dados de coorte retrospectiva, que acompanhou 595 pacientes com incapacidades, registrados em uma unidade de saúde de Belo Horizonte (MG), de 1993 a 2003. Informações sociodemográficas e clínicas dos pacientes foram coletadas dos respectivos prontuários. Comparou-se o grau de incapacidade na admissão e no final do tratamento por meio do teste de homogeneidade marginal. Para identificar os fatores associados à evolução do grau de incapacidade foram utilizadas as análises univariada (teste qui-quadrado de tendência linear) e multivariada pelo algoritmo Chi-square Automatic Interaction Detector. RESULTADOS:Dos casos com registro de grau de incapacidade na admissão e na alta, observou-se que 43,2 por cento que tinham grau 1 na primeira avaliação evoluíram para grau 0. Dos que apresentavam grau 2, 21,3 por cento passaram a ter grau 0 e 20 por cento passaram a grau 1. Na análise univariada as variáveis que se mostraram estatisticamente associadas à evolução no grau de incapacidade foram: neurite, tempo até a ocorrência de neurite, número de nervos acometidos, tipo de tratamento fisioterápico e maior dose de prednisona. Na análise multivariada, o principal fator que se associou à evolução do grau de incapacidade foi o grau de incapacidade na admissão. CONCLUSÕES:Os resultados mostraram a importância do diagnóstico precoce de neuropatia, assim como da eficiente associação das intervenções medicamentosas e não-medicamentosas por meio das técnicas de prevenção de incapacidade e dosagens adequadas de corticoterapia.

OBJECTIVE:To analyze predictive factors in the progression of the disability grade in patients with leprosy. METHODS: A retrospective cohort study followed up 595 patients with disability registered at a healthcare unit in the city of Belo Horizonte (Southeastern Brazil) from 1993 to 2003. Patients' sociodemographic and clinical information was collected from the respective medical records. Comparisons were made between the disability grade upon admission and at the end of treatment using a marginal homogeneity test. To determine factors associated with progression in the disability grade, univariate analysis (linear trend chi-square test) was employed, as well as multivariate analysis by means of the algorithm Chi-square Automatic Interaction Detector. RESULTS:Among the cases in which the disability grade was recorded upon admission and upon discharge, 43.2 percent of the patients who had grade 1 in the first assessment progressed to grade 0. Among those who began with grade 2, 21.3 percent progressed to grade 0 and 20 percent progressed to grade 1. In the univariate analysis, the variables that proved to be statistically associated with progression in the disability grade were: neuritis, time elapsed until the occurrence of neuritis, number of damaged nerves, type of physiotherapy treatment and higher dose of prednisone. In the multivariate analysis, the main factor associated with the progression of disability was the disability grade upon admission. CONCLUSIONS: The results showed the importance of an early diagnosis of neuropathy as well as the efficient association of pharmacological and non-pharmacological treatment, through disability prevention techniques and adequate doses of steroid.

OBJETIVO: Analizar los factores predictivos en la evolución del grado de incapacidad en pacientes con hanseníasis. MÉTODOS: Fueron analizados datos de cohorte retrospectiva, que acompañó 595 pacientes con incapacidades, registrados en una unidad de salud de Belo Horizonte (Sureste de Brasil), de 1993 a 2003. Informaciones sociodemográficas y clínicas de los pacientes fueron colectadas de los respectivos prontuarios. Se comparó el grado de incapacidad en la admisión y en el final del tratamiento por medio de la prueba de homogeneidad marginal. Para identificar los factores asociados a la evolución del grado de incapacidad fueron utilizados los análisis univariado (prueba chi-cuadrado de tendencia linear) y multivariado por el algoritmo Chi-square Automatic Interaction Detector. RESULTADOS: De los casos con registro de grado de incapacidad en la admisión y en el alta, se observó que 43,2 por ciento que tenían grado 1 en la primera evaluación evolucionaron para el grado 0. De los que presentaban grado 2, 21,3 por ciento pasaron a tener grado 0 y 20 por ciento pasaron a grado 1. En el análisis univariado las variables que se mostraron estadísticamente asociados a la evolución en el grado de incapacidad fueron: neuritis, tiempo hasta la ocurrencia de la neuritis, número de nervios afectados, tipo de tratamiento fisioterapéutico y mayor dosis de prednisona. En el análisis multivariado, el principal factor que se asoció a la evolución del grado de incapacidad fue el grado de incapacidad en la admisión. CONCLUSIONES: Los resultados mostraron la importancia del diagnóstico precoz de neuropatía, así como de la eficiente asociación de las intervenciones medicamentosas y no medicamentosas por medio de las técnicas de prevención de incapacidad y dosis adecuadas de corticoterapia.

[Predictive factors of disability in patients with leprosy]. / Fatores preditivos de incapacidades em pacientes com hanseníase.

OBJECTIVE: To analyze predictive factors in the progression of the disability grade in patients with leprosy. METHODS: A retrospective cohort study followed up 595 patients with disability registered at a healthcare unit in the city of Belo Horizonte (Southeastern Brazil) from 1993 to 2003. Patients' sociodemographic and clinical information was collected from the respective medical records. Comparisons were made between the disability grade upon admission and at the end of treatment using a marginal homogeneity test. To determine factors associated with progression in the disability grade, univariate analysis (linear trend chi-square test) was employed, as well as multivariate analysis by means of the algorithm Chi-square Automatic Interaction Detector. RESULTS: Among the cases in which the disability grade was recorded upon admission and upon discharge, 43.2% of the patients who had grade 1 in the first assessment progressed to grade 0. Among those who began with grade 2, 21.3% progressed to grade 0 and 20% progressed to grade 1. In the univariate analysis, the variables that proved to be statistically associated with progression in the disability grade were: neuritis, time elapsed until the occurrence of neuritis, number of damaged nerves, type of physiotherapy treatment and higher dose of prednisone. In the multivariate analysis, the main factor associated with the progression of disability was the disability grade upon admission. CONCLUSIONS: The results showed the importance of an early diagnosis of neuropathy as well as the efficient association of pharmacological and non-pharmacological treatment, through disability prevention techniques and adequate doses of steroid.

[Occurrence of neuritis among leprosy patients: survival analysis and predictive factors]. / Ocorrência de neurite em pacientes com hanseníase: análise de sobrevida e fatores preditivos.

Neuritis in leprosy cases is responsible for deformities and disability. The objective of this historical cohort study was to investigate the risk factors associated with the time taken for neuritis to occur. This study followed up 595 patients from 1993 to 2003. The life table technique and the Kaplan-Meier method for survival curves were used. The log-rank test was used to test differences between groups regarding the time take for neuritis to occur, and the Cox regression model was used to estimate the hazard ratios. Just over half (54%) of the sample had neuritis, which had mostly taken 0 to 11.9 months to appear. The degree of disability at admission and the bacillary index were strongly associated with the occurrence of neuritis, thus confirming the need for early diagnosis of leprosy, as well as regular neurological follow-up and appropriate interventions.

Ocorrência de neurite em pacientes com hanseníase: análise de sobrevida e fatores preditivos / Occurrence of neuritis among leprosy patients: survival analysis and predictive factors

A neurite na hanseníase é responsável pelas deformidades e incapacidades. O objetivo desta coorte histórica foi investigar os fatores de risco associados ao tempo até a ocorrência da neurite. Foram acompanhados 595 pacientes, no período de 1993 a 2003. Empregou-se a técnica de tabela de vida e o método de Kaplan-Meier para a curva de sobrevida. Para testar diferenças entre os grupos quanto ao tempo até a ocorrência de neurite, foi usado o log-rank e para estimar as razões de risco, o modelo de regressão de Cox. Pouco mais da metade (54 por cento) da amostra teve neurite, sendo o principal intervalo de tempo de zero a 11,9 meses. O grau de incapacidade na admissão e o índice baciloscópico associaram-se fortemente à ocorrência de neurite, confirmando a necessidade do diagnóstico precoce da hanseníase, bem como do acompanhamento neurológico regular e intervenções adequadas.

Neuritis in leprosy cases is responsible for deformities and disability. The objective of this historical cohort study was to investigate the risk factors associated with the time taken for neuritis to occur. This study followed up 595 patients from 1993 to 2003. The life table technique and the Kaplan-Meier method for survival curves were used. The log-rank test was used to test differences between groups regarding the time take for neuritis to occur, and the Cox regression model was used to estimate the hazard ratios. Just over half (54 percent) of the sample had neuritis, which had mostly taken 0 to 11.9 months to appear. The degree of disability at admission and the bacillary index were strongly associated with the occurrence of neuritis, thus confirming the need for early diagnosis of leprosy, as well as regular neurological follow-up and appropriate interventions.

[Leprosy in Espírito Santo State, Brazil: a growing endemic?]. / Hanseníase no Estado do Espírito Santo, Brasil: uma endemia em ascensão?

This study provides a trend analysis of leprosy among patients in the State of Espírito Santo, Brazil, from 1980 to 2003. Using temporal series statistical models, an upward trend was identified throughout the period in the overall detection rate (p<0.05), with an apparent stabilization at the end of the period. We also observed an upward trend for the following periods: (i) 1980-1987 in the <15 and >or=50-year age groups and for paucibacillary forms; (ii) 1988-1995 for the 15-19, 20-29, and >or=50-year groups and for multibacillary forms; and (iii) 1996-2003 in the 20-29-year group and paucibacillary forms. The indicators for evaluation of the endemic indicate: stable levels in grade 2 disability (mean of 6%); a proportion of less than 10% of cases in individuals<15 years of age; and a treatment dropout rate of approximately 6%. Prevalence showed a sharp decline. The upward trend can be explained partially by greater surveillance sensitivity, but the high proportion of individuals<15 highlights the need for studies aimed at better knowledge of residual sources of infection, especially in the household.

Social distance and spatial distance are not the same, observations on the use of GIS in leprosy epidemiology.

Contacts of leprosy patients have a higher risk of developing clinical leprosy. Being a contact is defined socially, but with the introduction of geographical information systems (GIS) in infectious disease epidemiology, it is necessary to relate spatial distance to social distance. We measured the distances between patients and their socially defined contacts in northwest Bangladesh. Contact categories differ in mean distance to the index patients. Sixty-seven per cent of the high-risk contacts lived within 10 metres (m), while all low-risk contacts lived >10 m from the index patient. Classification based on intervals of spatial distance creates categories that contain contacts of different socially defined categories, illustrated by a category of people living between 10 m and 20 m consisting of 47% of high-risk contacts and 52% low-risk contacts. Classification of contacts based on the spatial distance, as performed with GIS techniques, produces other groups than with social definitions.