Comparing Antoine parameter sources for accurate vapor pressure prediction across a range of temperatures.

Determining the vapor pressure of a substance at the relevant process temperature is a key component in conducting an exposure assessment to ascertain worker exposure. However, vapor pressure data at various temperatures relevant to the work environment is not readily available for many chemicals. The Antoine equation is a mathematical expression that relates temperature and vapor pressure. The objective of this analysis was to compare Antoine parameter data from 3 independent data sources; Hansen, Yaws, and Custom data and identify the source that generates the most accurate vapor pressure values with the least bias, relative to the referent data set from the CRC Handbook of Chemistry and Physics. Temperatures predicted from 3 different Antoine sources across a range of vapor pressures for 59 chemicals are compared to the reference source. The results show that temperatures predicted using Antoine parameters from the 3 sources are not statistically significantly different, indicating that all 3 sources could be useful. However, the Yaws dataset will be used in the SDM 2.0 because the data is readily available and robust.

Preparation and Characterization of a Rifampicin Coamorphous Material with Tromethamine Coformer: An Experimental-Theoretical Study.

Rifampicin (RIF) is an antibiotic used to treat tuberculosis and leprosy. Even though RIF is a market-available drug, it has a low aqueous solubility, hindering its bioavailability. Among the strategies for bioavailability improvement of poorly soluble drugs, coamorphous systems have been revealed as an alternative in the increase of the aqueous solubility of drug systems and at the same time also increasing the amorphous state stability and dissolution rate when compared with the neat drug. In this work, a new coamorphous form from RIF and tromethamine (TRIS) was synthesized by slow evaporation. Structural, electronic, and thermodynamic properties and solvation effects, as well as drug-coformer intermolecular interactions, were studied through density functional theory (DFT) calculations. Powder X-ray diffraction (PXRD) data allowed us to verify the formation of a new coamorphous. In addition, the DFT study indicates a possible intermolecular interaction by hydrogen bonds between the available amino and carbonyl groups of RIF and the hydroxyl and amino groups of TRIS. The theoretical spectra obtained are in good agreement with the experimental data, suggesting the main interactions occurring in the formation of the coamorphous system. PXRD was used to study the physical stability of the coamorphous system under accelerated ICH conditions (40 °C and 75% RH), indicating that the material remained in an amorphous state up to 180 days. The thermogravimetry result of this material showed a good thermal stability up to 153 °C, and differential scanning calorimetry showed that the glass temperature (Tg) was at 70.0 °C. Solubility studies demonstrated an increase in the solubility of RIF by 5.5-fold when compared with its crystalline counterpart. Therefore, this new material presents critical parameters that can be considered in the development of new coamorphous formulations.

Optimum second call imputation in PPS sampling.

The current study deals with imputation of item non-response in probability proportional to size (PPS) sampling. A new imputation procedure is proposed by using the known co-variance between the study variable and the auxiliary variable in the case of quantitative sensitive study variable by considering the non-response in a randomization mechanism on the second call. An empirical study is conducted at the optimum values of kog and nog for the relative comparisons of ratio, difference, and proposed estimators, respectively, with the Hansen-Hurwitz estimator.

Number of people requiring post-exposure prophylaxis to end leprosy: A modeling study.

BACKGROUND: Worldwide, around 210,000 new cases of leprosy are detected annually. To end leprosy, i.e. zero new leprosy cases, preventive interventions such as contact tracing and post-exposure prophylaxis (PEP) are required. This study aims to estimate the number of people requiring PEP to reduce leprosy new case detection (NCD) at national and global level by 50% and 90%. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: The individual-based model SIMCOLEP was fitted to seven leprosy settings defined by NCD and MB proportion. Using data of all 110 countries with known leprosy patients in 2016, we assigned each country to one of these settings. We predicted the impact of administering PEP to about 25 contacts of leprosy patients on the annual NCD for 25 years and estimated the number of contacts requiring PEP per country for each year. The NCD trends show an increase in NCD in the first year (i.e. backlog cases) followed by a significant decrease thereafter. A reduction of 50% and 90% of new cases would be achieved in most countries in 5 and 22 years if 20.6 and 40.2 million people are treated with PEP over that period, respectively. For India, Brazil, and Indonesia together, a total of 32.9 million people requiring PEP to achieve a 90% reduction in 22 years. CONCLUSION/SIGNIFICANCE: The leprosy problem is far greater than the 210,000 new cases reported annually. Our model estimates of the number of people requiring PEP to achieve significant reduction of new leprosy cases can be used by policymakers and program managers to develop long-term strategies to end leprosy.

The Potential of High Voltage Discharges for Green Solvent Extraction of Bioactive Compounds and Aromas from Rosemary (Rosmarinus officinalis L.)-Computational Simulation and Experimental Methods.

Rosemary (Rosmarinus officinalis L.) is a Mediterranean medicinal and aromatic plant widely used due to valuable bioactive compounds (BACs) and aromas. The aim of the study was to evaluate the extraction of intracellular compounds from rosemary combining experimental procedure by means of high voltage electrical discharge (HVED), with a theoretical approach using two computational simulation methods: conductor-like screening model for real solvents and Hansen solubility parameters. The optimal HVED parameters were as follows: frequency 100 Hz, pulse width 400 ns, gap between electrodes 15 mm, liquid to solid ratio 50 mL/g, voltage 15 and 20 kV for argon, and 20 and 25 kV for nitrogen gas. Green solvents were used, water and ethanol (25% and 50%). The comparison was done with modified conventional extraction (CE) extracted by magnetic stirring and physicochemical analyses of obtained extracts were done. Results showed that HVED extracts in average 2.13-times higher total phenol content compared to CE. Furthermore, nitrogen, longer treatment time and higher voltage enhanced higher yields in HVED extraction. HVED was confirmed to have a high potential for extraction of BACs from rosemary. The computational stimulation methods were confirmed by experimental study, ethanol had higher potential of solubility of BACs and aromas from rosemary compared to water.

Comparison of design methods for negative pressure gradient rotary bodies: A CFD study.

Computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulation is used to test two body design methods which use negative pressure gradient to suppress laminar flow separation and drag reduction. The steady-state model of the Transition SST model is used to calculate the pressure distribution, wall shear stress, and drag coefficient under zero angle of attack at different velocities. Four bodies designed by two different methods are considered. Our results show the first method is superior to the body of Hansen in drag reduction and the body designed by the first method is more likely to obtain the characteristics of suppressing or eliminating separation, which can effectively improve laminar flow coverage to achieve drag reduction under higher Reynolds number conditions. The results show that the negative pressure gradient method can suppress separation and drag reduction better than the second method. This successful design method is expected to open a promising prospect for its application in the design of small drag, small noise subsonic hydrodynamic hull and underwater weapons.

Solubility-physicochemical-thermodynamic theory of penetration enhancer mechanism of action.

The hypothesis for the investigation was that the overall mechanism of action of skin penetration enhancers is best explained by the Solubility-Physicochemical-Thermodynamic (SPT) theory. To our knowledge, this is the first report of the application of SPT theory in transdermal/topical/enhancer research. The SPT theory puts forward the concept that the mode of action of enhancers is related to solubility parameters, physicochemical interactions and thermodynamic activity. This paper discusses these concepts by using experimentally derived permeation data, various physicochemical and solubility parameters (ingredient active gap (IAG), ingredient skin gap (ISG), solubility of active in the formulation (SolV) and the formulation solubility in the skin (SolS)) generated by using FFE (Formulating for Efficacy™ - ACT Solutions Corp) software. These studies suggest that there is an inverse relationship between measured flux and IAG values given that there is an optimum ingredient skin gap, SolV and SolS ratio. The study demonstrated that the flux is actually proportional to a gradient of thermodynamic activity rather than the concentration and maximum skin penetration and deposition can be achieved when the drug is at its highest thermodynamic activity.

Predicting the impact of household contact and mass chemoprophylaxis on future new leprosy cases in South Tarawa, Kiribati: A modelling study.

BACKGROUND: The country of Kiribati is a small Pacific island nation which had a new case detection rate of 191 per 100,000 in 2016, and is one of the few countries yet to reach the WHO leprosy elimination goal. Chemoprophylaxis of household contacts of new cases, or to the whole population in a highly endemic areas have been found to be effective in reducing new case rates. This study investigated the potential impact of different chemoprophylaxis strategies on future cases in South Tarawa, the main population centre of Kiribati. METHODOLOGY: The microsimulation model SIMCOLEP was calibrated to simulate the South Tarawa population and past leprosy control activities, and replicate annual new cases from 1989 to 2016. The impact of six different strategies for delivering one round of single dose rifampicin (SDR) chemoprophylaxis to household contacts of new cases and/or one or three rounds of SDR to the whole population was modelled from 2017 to 2030. PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Our model predicted that continuing the existing control program of high levels of public awareness, passive case detection, and treatment with multidrug treatment would lead to a substantial reduction in cases but this was less effective than all modelled intervention scenarios. Mass chemoprophylaxis led to a faster initial decline in cases than household contact chemoprophylaxis alone, however the decline under the latter was sustained for longer. The greatest cumulative impact was for household contact chemoprophylaxis with three rounds of mass chemoprophylaxis at one-year intervals. CONCLUSIONS: The results suggest that control of leprosy would be achieved most rapidly with a combination of intensive population-based and household chemoprophylaxis. These findings may be generalisable to other countries where crowding places social contacts as well as household contacts of cases at risk of developing leprosy.

Life history tradeoffs in humans: increased life expectancy with sperm count reduction.

Although not without controversy, as a general trend, the human sperm count is declining world-wide. One major reason for such a decline is an increase in the human life-span.  According to the life history tradeoff theory, fecundity is inversely related to the lifespan; the longer the lifespan, the lower the fecundity. This is essential to the maintainance of diversity and balance of different species. Such a corrleation validated by experimental data that show that the extension of life in Caenorhabditis elegans, Drosophila and Rodents is  associated with reduction in fecundity. The demographic data from a public data source, shows that the total fertility rate is positively correlated with the infant death rate, it is inversely correlated with the life expectancy. We postulate that the fall in spermatogenesis might be regulated by the neuroendocrine system that underlie human longevity.

Modeling the Permeation Rates of Organic Migrants through a Fluoropolymer Film.

Polymer films have been widely used as barriers for blocking certain organic molecules (such as leachables and extractables) in both food and parenteral pharmaceutical packaging applications. However, a good understanding of the barrier properties of those polymer films is still lacking for combination drug product manufacturers to make practical risk-based assessments regarding the effectiveness of the barrier films against potential leachables. The present work addressed this issue by a combined theoretical/experimental approach-a new mathematical model based on Hansen Solubility Parameters, the size and shape of organic molecules, was developed to quantitatively estimate the Steady-State Permeation Rate of organic migrants through a model ethylene-tetrafluoroethylene fluoropolymer film by considering contributions from both solubility and diffusivity. This model facilitates expedited screening of potential leachables, allowing for experimental focus on higher-risk leachables and ultimately enabling rapid combination drug product development.LAY ABSTRACT: Currently, there is a shortage of simple mathematical models that can accurately estimate the effectiveness of the barrier properties of polymer films; therefore, practical assessment of the barrier properties of these materials is mainly realized by experimental measurements of the permeation rates of interested migrants. These measurements can be time-consuming, costly, and inaccurate. Sometimes these measurements are even impossible if the migrant molecules are not commercially available (although we might know their molecular structures). Thus, there is a need for a practical and easy-to-use mathematical model that can estimate/predict the permeation rate through these barrier materials. To satisfy this need, we developed a new model based on the molecular polarity, size, and shape of migrant molecules to quantitatively estimate the permeation rate of the migrant molecules through these barrier materials. This model will be useful for applications in both food and drug packaging. Additionally, this model will be useful for medical devices or containers that will hold or store organic drug molecules, such as medical tubing or IV bags. Finally, organic compounds used in inks and adhesives that will permeate through packaging materials could also be modeled in the same fashion.

Identification of Nontoxic Substructures: A New Strategy to Avoid Potential Toxicity Risk.

Avoidance of structural alerts (SAs) might reduce the risk of failure in drug discovery. However, there are still some marketed drugs containing SA, which indicates that SA should be analyzed carefully to avoid their excessive uses. Several detection systems, including automatic mining methods and expert systems, have been developed to identify SA. These methods only focus on toxic compounds that support the SA without consideration of nontoxic ones. Here, we proposed a frequency-based substructure detection protocol that learns from the nontoxic compounds containing SA to get nontoxic substructures (NTSs), whose appearance will reduce the probability of a compound becoming toxic. Kazius and Hansen's Ames mutagenicity dataset was used as an example to demonstrate the protocol. SARpy and ToxAlerts were first employed to obtain the potential SA. Then 2 kinds of NTS were exploited: reverse effect substructures (RESs) and conjugate effect substructures. Contribution and prediction performance of the substructures were evaluated via neural network and rule-based methods. We also compared substructure-based methods with the conventional machine learning-based methods. The results demonstrated that most substructures contributed as supposed and substructure-based methods performed better in the resistance of overfitting. This work indicated that the protocol could effectively reduce the false positive rate in prediction of chemical mutagenicity, and possibly extend to other endpoints.

Policy Lessons From Quantitative Modeling of Leprosy.

Recent mathematical and statistical modeling of leprosy incidence data provides estimates of the current undiagnosed population and projections of diagnosed cases, as well as ongoing transmission. Furthermore, modeling studies have been used to evaluate the effectiveness of proposed intervention strategies, such as postleprosy exposure prophylaxis and novel diagnostics, relative to current approaches. Such modeling studies have revealed both a slow decline of new cases and a substantial pool of undiagnosed infections. These findings highlight the need for active case detection, particularly targeting leprosy foci, as well as for continued research into innovative accurate, rapid, and cost-effective diagnostics. As leprosy incidence continues to decline, targeted active case detection primarily in foci and connected areas will likely become increasingly important.

Minimum requirements and optimal testing strategies of a diagnostic test for leprosy as a tool towards zero transmission: A modeling study.

BACKGROUND: The availability of a diagnostic test to detect subclinical leprosy cases is crucial to interrupt the transmission of M. leprae. In this study we assessed the minimum sensitivity level of such a (hypothetical) diagnostic test and the optimal testing strategy in order to effectively reduce the new case detection rate (NCDR) of leprosy. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We used the individual-based model SIMCOLEP, and based it on previous quantification using COLEP data, a cohort study of leprosy cases in Bangladesh. The baseline consisted of treatment with Multidrug therapy of clinically diagnosed leprosy cases, passive case detection and household contact tracing. We examined the use of a leprosy diagnostic test for subclinical leprosy in four strategies: testing in 1) household contacts, 2) household contacts with a 3-year follow-up, 3) a population survey with coverage 50%, and 4) a population survey (100%). For each strategy, we varied the test sensitivity between 50% and 100%. All analyses were conducted for a high, medium, and low (i.e. 25, 5 and 1 per 100,000) endemic setting over a period of 50 years. In all strategies, the use of a diagnostic test further reduces the NCDR of leprosy compared to the no test strategy. A substantial reduction could already be achieved at a test sensitivity as low as 50%. In a high endemic setting, a NCDR of 10 per 100,000 could be reached within 8-10 years in household contact testing, and 2-6 years in a population testing. Testing in a population survey could also yield the highest number of prevented new cases, but requires a large number needed to test and treat. In contrast, household contact testing has a smaller impact on the NCDR but requires a substantially lower number needed to test and treat. CONCLUSIONS: A diagnostic test for subclinical leprosy with a sensitivity of at least 50% could substantially reduce M. leprae transmission. To effectively reduce NCDR in the short run, a population survey is preferred over household contact tracing. However, this is only favorable in high endemic settings.

The distribution of district-level leprosy incidence in India is geometric-stable, consistent with subcriticality.

Mathematical models predict that the community-level incidence of a controlled infectious disease across a region approaches a geometric distribution. This could hold over larger regions, if new cases remain proportional to existing cases. Leprosy has been disappearing for centuries, making an excellent candidate for testing this hypothesis. Here, we show the annual new case detection rate of leprosy in Indian districts to be consistent with a geometric distribution. For 2008-2013, goodness-of-fit testing was unable to exclude the geometric, and the shape parameter of the best fit negative binomial distribution was close to unity (0.95, 95% CI 0.87-1.03). Ramifications include that a district-level cross-sectional survey may reveal whether an infectious disease is headed towards elimination, that apparent outliers are expected and not necessarily representative of program failure, and that proportion 1/e of a small geographical unit may not meet a control threshold even when a larger area has.

Assessment of the implementation of the Leprosy Control Program in Camaragibe, Pernambuco State, Brazil. / Avaliação da implantação do Programa de Controle da Hanseníase em Camaragibe, Pernambuco.

OBJECTIVE: to assess the implementation of the actions of the Leprosy Control Program in Camaragibe, Pernambuco State, Brazil. METHODS: evaluative research with 'implementation analysis', based on criteria, indicators and parameters guided from the construction of the Logic Model; four components were assessed - management, health care, epidemiological surveillance, health education and communication -; direct observation/questionnaire was used, as well as data from the Information System for Notifiable Diseases. RESULTS: the implementation of the program was incipient (58.3%); the estimate for the components varied from 'not implemented' (health education and communication, 48.0%), 'incipient' (management, 53.3%; health care, 57.2%) to 'partially implemented' (epidemiological surveillance, 73.0%); in 2012, it was observed low proportion of examined contacts (28.4%), treatment dropout (34.1%), limited standardization of patient care flow, and poor resolution of problems by managers. CONCLUSION: the level of implementation found was related to the organization of services, with negative repercussions regarding the result indicators.

A hypothetical role for Notch signaling pathway in immunopathogenesis of leprosy.

Leprosy is a chronic infectious disease caused by Mycobacterium leprae mainly affecting skin and peripheral nerves. Leprosy has a broad range of clinical manifestations that range from mild (tuberculoid leprosy) to severe (lepromatous leprosy) forms, and are highly dependent on the host's immune response. Among the immune response elements involved in the pathogenesis of leprosy are the Toll-like receptors (TLRs), vitamin D receptor (VDR), natural killer cells (NK), and T cells. These innate and adaptive immune response elements may be related to the Notch signaling pathway, which is involved in immune cell growth, differentiation, and proliferation. We hypothesize that failure in Notch signaling in leprosy patients may be associated to: 1) compromising NK cell maturation, lysing of infected cells, and CD4+ Th1 differentiation. 2) VDR alterations and TLR polymorphisms may affect expression of Notch Delta-like ligands (DLL) in antigen presenting cells (APCs). 3) altered DLL expression by APCs could compromise CD4+ T cell differentiation towards the Th1 and Th17 effector phenotypes; and finally 4) expression of Notch Jagged ligands would induce CD4+ T cell differentiation towards Th2 effector phenotype and alternative activation of macrophages. Altogether, these signaling failures could favor proliferation of M. leprae in the host. Therefore, evidence of the proposed immunologic failures in leprosy patients would be essential for the better understanding of immunopathogenesis of this disease, and would ultimately enable detection of susceptible individuals, providing a valuable tool for prevention of this debilitating disease.

Unravelling proximate cues of mass flowering in the tropical forests of South-East Asia from gene expression analyses.

Elucidating the physiological mechanisms of the irregular yet concerted flowering rhythm of mass flowering tree species in the tropics requires long-term monitoring of flowering phenology, exogenous and endogenous environmental factors, as well as identifying interactions and dependencies among these factors. To investigate the proximate factors for floral initiation of mast seeding trees in the tropics, we monitored the expression dynamics of two key flowering genes, meteorological conditions and endogenous resources over two flowering events of Shorea curtisii and Shorea leprosula in the Malay Peninsula. Comparisons of expression dynamics of genes studied indicated functional conservation of FLOWERING LOCUS T (FT) and LEAFY (LFY) in Shorea. The genes were highly expressed at least 1 month before anthesis for both species. A mathematical model considering the synergistic effect of cool temperature and drought on activation of the flowering gene was successful in predicting the observed gene expression patterns. Requirement of both cool temperature and drought for floral transition suggested by the model implies that flowering phenologies of these species are sensitive to climate change. Our molecular phenology approach in the tropics sheds light on the conserved role of flowering genes in plants inhabiting different climate zones and can be widely applied to dissect the flowering processes in other plant species.

The influence of renewable and non-renewable energy consumption and real income on CO2 emissions in the USA: evidence from structural break tests.

The objective of this study is to explore the influence of the real income (GDP), renewable energy consumption and non-renewable energy consumption on carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions for the United States of America (USA) in the environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) model for the period 1980-2014. The Zivot-Andrews unit root test with a structural break and the Clemente-Montanes-Reyes unit root test with a structural break report that the analyzed variables become stationary at first-differences. The Gregory-Hansen cointegration test with a structural break and the bounds testing for cointegration in the presence of a structural break show CO2 emissions, the real income, the quadratic real income, renewable and non-renewable energy consumption are cointegrated. The long-run estimates obtained from the ARDL model indicate that increases in renewable energy consumption mitigate environmental degradation whereas increases in non-renewable energy consumption contribute to CO2 emissions. In addition, the EKC hypothesis is not valid for the USA. Since we use time-series econometric approaches that account for structural break in the data, findings of this study are robust, reliable and accurate. The US government is advised to put more weights on renewable sources in energy mix, to support and encourage the use and adoption of renewable energy and clean technologies, and to increase the public awareness of renewable energy for lower levels of emissions.

Analysis of molecular mechanisms of ATP synthesis from the standpoint of the principle of electrical neutrality.

Theories of biological energy coupling in oxidative phosphorylation (OX PHOS) and photophosphorylation (PHOTO PHOS) are reviewed and applied to ATP synthesis by an experimental system containing purified ATP synthase reconstituted into liposomes. The theories are critically evaluated from the standpoint of the principle of electrical neutrality. It is shown that the obligatory requirement to maintain overall electroneutrality of bulk aqueous phases imposes strong constraints on possible theories of energy coupling and molecular mechanisms of ATP synthesis. Mitchell's chemiosmotic theory is found to violate the electroneutrality of bulk aqueous phases and is shown to be untenable on these grounds. Purely electroneutral mechanisms or mechanisms where the anion/countercation gradient is dissipated or simply flows through the lipid bilayer are also shown to be inadequate. A dynamically electrogenic but overall electroneutral mode of ion transport postulated by Nath's torsional mechanism of energy transduction and ATP synthesis is shown to be consistent both with the experimental findings and the principle of electrical neutrality. It is concluded that the ATP synthase functions as a proton-dicarboxylic acid anion cotransporter in OX PHOS or PHOTO PHOS. A logical chemical explanation for the selection of dicarboxylic acids as intermediates in OX PHOS and PHOTO PHOS is suggested based on the pioneering classical thermodynamic work of Christensen, Izatt, and Hansen. The nonequilibrium thermodynamic consequences for theories in which the protons originate from water vis-a-vis weak organic acids are compared and contrasted, and several new mechanistic and thermodynamic insights into biological energy transduction by ATP synthase are offered. These considerations make the new theory of energy coupling more complete, and lead to a deeper understanding of the molecular mechanism of ATP synthesis.

An enquiry on appropriate selection of polymers for preparation of polymeric nanosorbents and nanofiltration/ultrafiltration membranes for hormone micropollutants removal from water effluents.

To analyze polymeric nanosorbents and nanofiltration/ultrafiltration membranes for hormone micropollutants removal from water effluents, here an in-through investigation on the suitability and compatibility of various polymers has been carried out. For this work, estradiol, estrone, testosterone, progesterone, estriol, mestranol, and ethinylestradiol were considered. A total number of 452 polymers were analyzed and initially screened using Hansen solubility parameters. The identified good pairs of hormones and polymers then were examined to obtain the equilibrium capacity of hormones removal from water effluents using a modified Flory-Huggins model. A distribution coefficient was defined as the ratio of hormones in water effluent phase and polymer phase. For removal of mestranol, estradiol and ethinylestradiol, no compatible polymer was identified based on initial screening of collected database. Three compatible polymers were identified for estriol. For progesterone, a wide variety of polymers was identified as good matching of polar, dispersion and hydrogen forces contributions can be observed for these pairs. For estrone, only two polymers can be proposed due to the mismatch observed between polar, dispersion and hydrogen forces contributions of other polymers and this hormone. The phase calculations showed that not all the identified good pairs could be used for practical separation applications. The domain of applicability of each good pair was investigated and potential polymers for practical micropollutants removal together with their removal capacity were represented in terms of phase envelops. The theoretical approach follows fundamental chemical thermodynamic equations and then can be simply applied for any system of interest.