Evaluation of the performance of clinical predictors in estimating the probability of pulmonary tuberculosis among smear-negative cases in Northern Ethiopia: a cross-sectional study.

OBJECTIVES: To evaluate the performance of the predictors in estimating the probability of pulmonary tuberculosis (PTB) when all versus only significant variables are combined into a decision model (1) among all clinical suspects and (2) among smear-negative cases based on the results of culture tests. DESIGN: A cross-sectional study. SETTING: Two public referral hospitals in Tigray, Ethiopia. PARTICIPANTS: A total of 426 consecutive adult patients admitted to the hospitals with clinical suspicion of PTB were screened by sputum smear microscopy and chest radiograph (chest X-ray (CXR)) in accordance with the Ethiopian guidelines of the National Tuberculosis and Leprosy Program. Discontinuation of antituberculosis therapy in the past 3 months, unproductive cough, HIV positivity and unwillingness to give written informed consent were the basis of exclusion from the study. PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOME MEASURES: A total of 354 patients were included in the final analysis, while 72 patients were excluded because culture tests were not done. RESULTS: The strongest predictive variables of culture-positive PTB among patients with clinical suspicion were a positive smear test (OR 172; 95% CI 23.23 to 1273.54) and having CXR lesions compatible with PTB (OR 10.401; 95% CI 5.862 to 18.454). The regression model had a good predictive performance for identifying culture-positive PTB among patients with clinical suspicion (area under the curve (AUC) 0.84), but it was rather poor in patients with a negative smear result (AUC 0.64). Combining all the predictors in the model compared with only the independent significant variables did not really improve its performance to identify culture-positive (AUC 0.84-0.87) and culture-negative (AUC 0.64-0.69) PTB. CONCLUSIONS: Our finding suggests that predictive models based on clinical variables will not be useful to discriminate patients with culture-negative PTB from patients with culture-positive PTB among patients with smear-negative cases.

Mediation analysis for survival data using semiparametric probit models.

Causal mediation modeling has become a popular approach for studying the effect of an exposure on an outcome through mediators. Currently, the literature on mediation analyses with survival outcomes largely focused on settings with a single mediator and quantified the mediation effects on the hazard, log hazard and log survival time (Lange and Hansen 2011; VanderWeele 2011). In this article, we propose a multi-mediator model for survival data by employing a flexible semiparametric probit model. We characterize path-specific effects (PSEs) of the exposure on the outcome mediated through specific mediators. We derive closed form expressions for PSEs on a transformed survival time and the survival probabilities. Statistical inference on the PSEs is developed using a nonparametric maximum likelihood estimator under the semiparametric probit model and the functional Delta method. Results from simulation studies suggest that our proposed methods perform well in finite sample. We illustrate the utility of our method in a genomic study of glioblastoma multiforme survival.

Comparative efficacy of thalidomide and prednisolone in the treatment of moderate to severe erythema nodosum leprosum: a randomized study.

The present study was undertaken to compare the efficacy and safety of thalidomide to that of oral prednisolone in the treatment of moderate to severe type 2 lepra reaction. Sixty patients with a histologically confirmed diagnosis of erythema nodosum leprosum with a clinical score of 4 or more (i.e. moderate to severe type 2 reaction) were randomly allocated to two groups comprising 30 patients each. Group 1 patients were given thalidomide at a dose of 300 mg/day for 1 week and the dose was gradually reduced, and Group 2 received prednisolone 40 mg daily for 2 weeks, which was tapered by 10 mg every 2 weeks. Thalidomide induced a faster clinical response (cutaneous as well as systemic) compared with prednisolone. Patients taking thalidomide had fewer relapses and a longer period of remission than those receiving prednisolone.

Immunoprophylactic effects of the anti-leprosy Mw vaccine in household contacts of leprosy patients: clinical field trials with a follow up of 8-10 years.

We report here a large scale, double blind immunoprophylactic trial of a leprosy vaccine based on Mycobacterium w (Mw) in an endemic area of Kanpur Dehat, Uttar Pradesh, India. A population of 420,823 spread over 272 villages was screened where 1226 multibacillary (MB) and 3757 paucibacillary (PB) cases of leprosy were detected. A total of 29,420 household contacts (HHC) of these patients were screened for evidence of active or inactive leprosy. After exclusion of 1622 contacts for any of the different exclusion criteria, a total of 24,060 HHC could be vaccinated for vaccine or placebo under coding (20,194 administered two doses and 3866 received single dose). The vaccine consisted of 1 x 10(9) heat killed bacilli (Mw) in normal saline for the first dose and half of the first dose, i.e. 5 x 10(8) bacilli for the second dose, given 6 months after the first dose. The placebo consisted of 1/8th dose of the normal dose of tetanous toxoid. Both placebo and vaccine were given under double-blind coding, The contacts were followed up during three surveys at 3, 6 and 9 years after the initial vaccination, for detection of post-vaccination cases (PVCs) and observing any side-effects caused as a result of vaccination. The codes were opened on 24th January 2001, after the analysis of the data following completion of the third and final follow-up survey. When only contacts received the vaccine, Mw vaccine showed a protective efficacy (PE) of 68-6% at the end of first, 59% at the end of the second and 39.3% at the end of the third follow-up survey. When both patients and contacts received the vaccine, the protective efficacy observed was 68%, 60% and 28% at the end of the first, second and third surveys, respectively. When patients, and not the contacts, received the vaccine, a PE of 42.9% in the first, 31% in the second and 3% in the third survey was shown. These results suggest that the vaccination of the contacts is more valuable in achieving the objective of immunoprophylaxis than that of patients, and the vaccine effects are noted maximally in children (as compared to adolescents and adults) who constitute the most responsive group The effect of vaccine is sustained for a period of about 7-8 years, following which there is a need to provide a booster vaccination for the sustained protection.

An open randomized comparative study of oral itraconazole pulse and terbinafine pulse in the treatment of onychomycosis.

BACKGROUND: Onychomycosis is a recalcitrant disease of the nails caused by dermatophytes, yeasts, and molds. AIMS: To compare the clinical efficacy of oral itraconazole pulse therapy and oral terbinafine pulse therapy in onychomycosis. METHODS: A randomized single-blind clinical comparative study was undertaken on 120 patients of onychomycosis during the period March 1999-February 2002. Sixty patients were randomly assigned to receive oral itraconazole 100 mg, two capsules twice daily for seven days a month and the other group of sixty patients received oral terbinafine 250 mg, one tablet twice daily for seven days every month. Four such monthly pulses were administered for each drug. The patients were evaluated at 4-weekly intervals till sixteen weeks and then at 24, 36 and 48 weeks. RESULTS: We observed a clinical cure rate of 82% and mycological cure rate of 90% in the group of patients treated with itraconazole while the group with terbinafine showed clinical and mycological cure rates of 79% and 87% respectively. This difference was not statistically significant. CONCLUSIONS: Both oral itraconazole and terbinafine are effective in the treatment of onychomycosis when administered in the pulse dosage form. Terbinafine is more cost effective while itraconazole has a broader spectrum of antimycotic activity.

Depressive status of leprosy patients in Bangladesh: association with self-perception of stigma.

Stigmatization by the general population and their negative attitudes towards leprosy negatively impacts on patients' mental health, and so too does patients' perception of that stigma. The objective of this present study is to assess the depressive status of leprosy patients, the patient perception of that stigma, and its association with their depressive status in Dhaka, Bangladesh. Subjects were 140 patients, and a selected comparison group of 135 local people without any chronic diseases. To evaluate depressive status, the Center for Epidemiologic Studies Depression scale (CES-D) Bengali version was applied. The patient group's depressive status was significantly more severe than that of the comparison group. Depressive status of those who answered affirmatively was significantly more severe than that of those who answered negatively for three responses to questions: 1) 'I have been physically attacked by people', 2) 'I feel people regard me as strange' and 3) 'I have been refused the purchase of something by a shopkeeper'. The results showed that the depressive status in leprosy patients was greater than that of the general public. Further, actual experiences of discrimination based on stigma associated with the depressive status of leprosy patients. Mental health care for patients, regulation of discriminatory action and education that would decrease social stigma among the general population, especially people who might often have contact with patients, seem necessary to improve the mental health of Bangladeshi leprosy patients.

HLA associations in leprosy patients from Mumbai, India.

Genetic predisposition to both disease susceptibility and to host immune response has been postulated. In India, about 64% of leprosy prevalence and 78% of new case detection of the worlds estimated 719,330 cases occur. Convincing results have been reported from studies on HLA class II association in leprosy. However data on HLA class I association are limited and inconsistent. The HLA A, B and C allele distribution in 103 leprosy patients and 101 normal healthy control individuals were studied by microlymphocytotoxicity assay. Further 32 multibacillary leprosy patients along with the 67 controls were studied by molecular high-resolution PCR-SSOP technique. The significant results from the present study were: 1) serologically, a significant increase in HLA A2, A11, B40 and Cw7, while a decrease of A28, B12, B15 and Cw3 were observed among the leprosy patients when compared with the controls; 2) molecular subtyping in multibacillary leprosy patients revealed a significant increase in frequency of HLA A*0203, A*0206, A*1102, B*1801, B*4016, B*5110, Cw*0407 and Cw*0703 while a decrease in the frequency of HLA A*0101, A*0211, B*4006, Cw*03031, Cw*04011 and Cw*0602 leprosy patients was observed when compared with the controls; 3) further haplotypes A*1102-B*4006-Cw*1502; A*0203-B*4016-Cw*0703; A*11-B*40 was significantly increased among the multibacillary leprosy patients when compared with the controls. It seems that HLA class I alleles play vital roles in disease association/pathogenesis.

Assessment of knowledge and skills in early diagnosis of leprosy and attitudes towards leprosy amongst doctors working in dermatological services, Shandong Province, People's Republic of China.

After the leprosy control programme in Shandong Province, China, had declared elimination in 1994, it was no longer cost effective to rely on rapid surveys, population surveys and contact tracing for case detection, and since then most new cases have been diagnosed by the dermatological services. The dermatological services will continue to play an important role in diagnosis of the few incident leprosy cases scattered in wide geographic areas and in a population of 90 million. In order to better understand the knowledge and skills in early diagnosis of leprosy among doctors working in dermatological services around the province, doctors attending the dermatological annual meeting and a dermatological training workshop were assessed on their knowledge and skills in early diagnosis of leprosy and their attitude towards leprosy with a semi-structured questionnaire. The results showed that continuous training was needed for dermatologists from both general hospitals and the leprosy control programme. In particular, the training methods for the skills in nerve examination including palpation of peripheral nerves and nerve function assessment should be improved.

Neonatal BCG protection against leprosy: a study in Manaus, Brazilian Amazon.

There is clear evidence that BCG protects against leprosy, but cross-immunity with environmental mycobacteria can interfere with vaccination protection. Some have cast doubts whether BCG vaccination can offer a significant impact against leprosy in the Brazilian Amazon, which is an endemic area for leprosy and with a high prevalence of environmental mycobacteria. This study was designed to estimate the vaccine effectiveness of neonatal BCG against leprosy in Amazon region, in Brazil. This is a cohort study nested in a randomized community trial. The study had two main results. First, neonatal BCG vaccination in Brazilian Amazon elicited protection of 74% (95% CI 57-86) against all forms of leprosy cases. Second, the highest protection was observed for multibacillary cases, 93% (95% CI 71-98). It is concluded that the study provides evidence that neonatal BCG may have an important and overlooked impact on the occurrence and transmission of leprosy, maybe even more in the future when the cohort which received a high coverage of BCG reaches the age of high incidence of leprosy.

A clinical trial of pefloxacin and ofloxacin in lepromatous leprosy.

A 2-month clinical trial of pefloxacin and ofloxacin in previously untreated multibacillary patients was conducted at the Leonard Wood Memorial Leprosy Research Center, Cebu, the Philippines. Treatment with either pefloxacin or ofloxacin resulted in rapid clinical improvement, in this regard pefloxacin appearing somewhat superior. Reactions and side effects were minimal. Single doses of either agent did not result in significant killing of Mycobacterium leprae, but significant bactericidal activity was observed for all fluoroquinolone-treated patients by one week of daily therapy (n = 21), and either agent independently by 3 weeks of daily therapy. At the completion of therapy only two of 10 pefloxacin-treated patients and 0 of 11 ofloxacin-treated patients harboured any detectable viable M. leprae from active lesions, confirming previous work that these fluoroquinolones exhibit bactericidal activity in leprosy patients and more than that found previously for dapsone and clofazimine.

Surgical reconstruction of irreversible ulnar nerve paralysis in leprosy.

Twenty-five patients with irreversible leprotic ulnar nerve palsy having undergone lumbrical replacement with two different tendon transfer techniques were assessed 6-120 months after surgery. Nineteen patients were reconstructed with the flexor digitorum four-tail procedure (FDS-4T), and six with Zancolli's lasso procedure (ZLP). Mean paralysis times were 103 months for FDS-4T, and 68 months for ZLP. Mean age of the patients was 36 years (21-57). Grip strength measurements, improvement in active range of motion at the PIP joints, patients' ability to open and close their hands fully, as well as sequence of phalangeal flexion, were noted. Mean grip strength measurements during follow-up were 76% of the contralateral extremity in the FDS-4T group and 82% in the ZLP group. Comparison of the follow-up grip strength with the preoperative value revealed 1% improvement in the FDS-4T group and 20% in the ZLP group. Claw hand deformity was completely corrected in 12 patients in FDS-4T group, and in five patients in the ZLP group. Residual flexion contracture remained in five patients after surgery. Swan-neck deformity subsequently developed in seven fingers. Age, sex, mean follow-up and surgical technique did not relate statistically to the functional outcome. However, preoperative extensor lag of the PIP joint and mean paralysis time significantly affected the functional outcome. ZLP was found to be a more effective procedure in restoring grip strength, whereas FDS-4T was more effective in correcting claw hand deformity.

The prognostic importance of detecting mild sensory impairment in leprosy: a randomized controlled trial (TRIPOD 2).

This study was designed to investigate whether leprosy patients diagnosed with mild sensory impairment have a better prognosis when treated with steroids than similarly impaired patients treated with placebo. A multi-centre, randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial was conducted in Nepal and Bangladesh. Patients were eligible if they had a confirmed leprosy diagnosis, were between 15 and 50 years old, had mild sensory impairment of the ulnar or posterior tibial nerve of less than 6 months duration and did not require steroids for other reasons. 'Mild impairment' was defined as 'impaired on the Semmes-Weinstein monofilament test, but testing normal on the ballpen sensory test'. Subjects were randomized to either prednisolone treatment starting at 40 mg per day, tapering over 4 months, or placebo. Nerve function was monitored monthly. Any patient who deteriorated was taken out of the trial and was put on full-dose steroid treatment. Outcome assessment was done at 4, 6, 9 and 12 months from the start of the treatment. Outcome measures were the proportion of patients needing full-dose prednisolone and the Semmes-Weinstein sum scores. Each patient contributed only one nerve to the analysis. Seventy-five patients had nerves eligible for analysis, of whom 41 (55%) and 34 (45%) were allocated to the prednisolone and placebo arms, respectively. At 4 months, three patients in the prednisolone arm (7%) and six in the placebo arm (18%) had an outcome event requiring full dose steroids. At 12 months, these proportions had almost reversed, 11 (27%) and 6 (18%) in the treatment and placebo arms, respectively. In the latter group, 75% had recovered spontaneously after 12 months. Prednisolone treatment of sensory impairment of the ulnar and posterior tibial nerves detectable with the monofilament test, but not with the ballpen test, did not improve the long-term outcome in terms of recovery of touch sensibility, not did it reduce the risk of leprosy reactions or nerve function impairment beyond the initial 4-month treatment phase. Two unexpected main findings were the strong tendency of mild sensory impairment to recover spontaneously and the fact that patients with mild sensory impairment without any other signs or symptoms of reaction or nerve function impairment are relatively rare.

Treatment with corticosteroids of long-standing nerve function impairment in leprosy: a randomized controlled trial (TRIPOD 3).

Some leprosy patients with long-standing nerve function impairment (NFI) appear to have responded favourably to treatment with corticosteroids. This study investigated whether patients with untreated NFI between 6 and 24 months duration and who are given standard regimen corticosteroid therapy, will have a better treatment outcome than a placebo group. A multicentre, randomized, double-blind placebo-controlled trial was conducted in Nepal and Bangladesh. Subjects were randomised to either prednisolone treatment starting at 40 mg/day, tapered by 5 mg every 2 weeks, and completed after 16 weeks, or placebo. Outcome assessments were at 4, 6, 9, and 12 months from the start of treatment. 92 MB patients on MDT were recruited, of whom 40 (45%) received prednisolone and 52 (55%) placebo treatment. No demonstrable additional improvement in nerve function, or in preventing further leprosy reaction events was seen in the prednisolone group. Overall, improvement of nerve function at 12 months was seen in about 50% of patients in both groups. Analysis of subgroups according to nerve (ulnar and posterior tibial), duration of NFI, and sensory and motor function, also did not reveal any differences between the treatment and placebo groups. There was however, indication of less deterioration of nerve function in the prednisolone group. Finally, there was no difference in the occurrence of adverse events between both groups. The trial confirms current practice not to treat long-standing NFI with prednisolone. Spontaneous recovery of nerve function appears to be a common phenomenon in leprosy. Leprosy reactions and new NFI occurred in a third of the study group, emphasizing the need to keep patients under regular surveillance during MDT, and, where possible, after completion of MDT.

Adverse events of standardized regimens of corticosteroids for prophylaxis and treatment of nerve function impairment in leprosy: results from the 'TRIPOD' trials.

Reactions in leprosy causing nerve function impairment (NFI) are increasingly treated with standardized regimens of corticosteroids, often under field conditions. Safety concerns led to an assessment of adverse events of corticosteroids, based on data of three trials studying prevention of NFI (the TRIPOD study). A multicentre, randomized, double-blind placebo-controlled trial was conducted in leprosy control programmes in Nepal and Bangladesh. Treatment was with prednisolone according to fixed schedules for 16 weeks, starting in one trial with 20 mg/day (prophylactic regimen: total dosage 1.96 g) and in the other two trials with 40 mg/day (therapeutic regimen: total dosage 2.52 g). Minor adverse events were defined as moon face, fungal infections, acne, and gastric pain requiring antacid. Major adverse events were defined as psychosis, peptic ulcer, glaucoma, cataract, diabetes and hypertension. Also, the occurrence of infected plantar, palmar, and corneal ulceration was monitored, together with occurrence of TB. Considering all three trials together, minor adverse events were observed in 130/815 patients (16%). Of these, 51/414 (12%) were in the placebo group and 79/401 (20%) in the prednisolone group. The relative risk for minor adverse events in the prednisolone group was 1.6 (P = 0.004). Adverse events with a significantly increased risk were acne, fungal infections and gastric pain. Major adverse events were observed in 15/815 patients (2%); 7/414 (2%) in the placebo group and 8/401 (2%) in the prednisolone group. No major adverse events had a significantly increased risk in the prednisolone arm of the trials. No cases of TB were observed in 300 patients who could be followed-up for 24 months. Standardized regimens of corticosteroids for both prophylaxis and treatment of reactions and NFI in leprosy under field conditions in developing countries are safe when a standard pre-treatment examination is performed, treatment for minor conditions can be carried out by field staff, referral for specialized medical care is possible, and sufficient follow-up is done during and after treatment.

Delay in presentation, an indicator for nerve function status at registration and for treatment outcome--the experience of the Bangladesh Acute Nerve Damage Study cohort.

The objective of our research was to relate delay in presentation in the Bangladesh Acute Nerve Damage Study cohort to intake status and to treatment outcome. The Bangladesh Acute Nerve Damage Study (BANDS) is a prospective cohort study of 2664 consecutive newly registered patients at clinics run by the Danish-Bangladesh Mission Leprosy (DBLM) project in Nilphamari, northern Bangladesh. The 1-year intake began in April 1995. Three-year follow-up for PB cases and 5 years for MB cases was completed in 2001. Delay in presentation in the BANDS cohort is associated with increased signs of nerve function impairment at registration. Individuals presenting with no nerve impairment and maintaining nerve function to the end of follow-up had the shortest mean delays. Individuals presenting with impairment that did not improve during follow-up had the longest mean delays. Discussion focuses on the value of setting a threshold value defining early presentation. Since the WHO Grade 2 disability rate effectively sanctions lengthy delays where there is no impairment, an indicator relating directly to delay is preferred as an indicator for good practice in leprosy control.

Typing of clinical isolates of Mycobacterium leprae and their distribution in Korea.

Although there is no genetic diversity in isolates of Mycobacterium leprae, the variance of tandem repeats in the rpoT gene was recently demonstrated. We have typed clinical isolates of M. leprae in Korea using difference of the tandem repeats in the rpoT gene. Among 69 patients, 65 Korean isolates (94.2%) demonstrated four copies of the 6 bp tandem repeat (GACATC) in the rpoT gene, and incidences of three copies were found in only two Koreans and two foreigners (2.9%, respectively).