Identifying the Optimum Strategy for Identifying Adults and Children With Celiac Disease: A Cost-Effectiveness and Value of Information Analysis.

OBJECTIVES: Celiac disease (CD) is thought to affect around 1% of people in the United Kingdom, but only approximately 30% are diagnosed. The aim of this work was to assess the cost-effectiveness of strategies for identifying adults and children with CD in terms of who to test and which tests to use. METHODS: A decision tree and Markov model were used to describe testing strategies and model long-term consequences of CD. The analysis compared a selection of pre-test probabilities of CD above which patients should be screened, as well as the use of different serological tests, with or without genetic testing. Value of information analysis was used to prioritize parameters for future research. RESULTS: Using serological testing alone in adults, immunoglobulin A (IgA) tissue transglutaminase (tTG) at a 1% pre-test probability (equivalent to population screening) was most cost-effective. If combining serological testing with genetic testing, human leukocyte antigen combined with IgA tTG at a 5% pre-test probability was most cost-effective. In children, the most cost-effective strategy was a 10% pre-test probability with human leukocyte antigen plus IgA tTG. Value of information analysis highlighted the probability of late diagnosis of CD and the accuracy of serological tests as important parameters. The analysis also suggested prioritizing research in adult women over adult men or children. CONCLUSIONS: For adults, these cost-effectiveness results suggest UK National Screening Committee Criteria for population-based screening for CD should be explored. Substantial uncertainty in the results indicate a high value in conducting further research.

A call from 40 public health scientists for an end to the continuing humanitarian and environmental catastrophe in Gaza.

An under-recognised aspect of the current humanitarian catastrophe in Gaza is the impact of the war on the environment and the associated risks for human health. This commentary contextualises these impacts against the background of human suffering produced by the overwhelming violence associated with the use of military force against the general population of Gaza. In calling for an immediate cessation to the violence, the authors draw attention to the urgent need to rebuild the health care system and restore the physical and human infrastructure that makes a liveable environment possible and promotes human health and well-being, especially for the most vulnerable in the population. Environmental remediation should therefore form one of the most important parts of international efforts to assist reconstruction, through which we hope Palestinians and Israelis will achieve lasting peace, health, and sustainable development, all as part of accepted international human rights obligations.

Topical or oral antibiotics in childhood acute otitis media and ear discharge: a randomized controlled non-inferiority trial.

BACKGROUND: Current guidance suggests oral antibiotics can be considered for children with acute otitis media (AOM) and ear discharge, but there is an absence of evidence regarding the relative effectiveness of antibiotic-corticosteroid eardrops. AIM: To establish whether antibiotic-corticosteroid eardrops are non-inferior to oral antibiotics in children with AOM and ear discharge. DESIGN AND SETTING: Open randomized controlled non-inferiority trial set in Dutch primary care. METHODS: Children were randomized to hydrocortisone-bacitracin-colistin eardrops (five drops, three times per day in the discharging ear(s)) or amoxicillin suspension (50 mg per kilogram of body weight per day, divided over three doses administered orally) for 7 days. The primary outcome was the proportion of children with resolution of ear pain and fever at day 3. RESULTS: Between December 2017 and March 2023, 58 of the planned 350 children were recruited due to slow accrual for various reasons. Children assigned to eardrops (n = 26) had lower resolution rates of ear pain and fever at 3 days compared to those receiving oral antibiotics (n = 31): 42% vs 65%; adjusted risk difference 20.3%, 95% confidence interval -5.3% to 41.9%), longer parent-reported ear discharge (6 vs 3 days; P = .04), and slightly higher mean ear pain scores (Likert scale 0-6) over days 1-3 (2.1 vs 1.4, P = .02), but received fewer oral antibiotic courses in 3months (11 for 25 children vs 33 for 30 children), and had less GI upset and rash (12% vs 32% and 8% vs 16%, respectively). CONCLUSION: Early termination stopped us from determining non-inferiority of antibiotic-corticosteroid eardrops. Our limited data, requiring confirmation, suggest that oral antibiotics may be more effective than antibiotic-corticosteroid eardrops in resolving symptoms and shortening the duration of ear discharge.

Correction: Internet Tool to Support Self-Assessment and Self-Swabbing of Sore Throat: Development and Feasibility Study.

[This corrects the article DOI: 10.2196/39791.].

Risk factors associated with the development of chronic suppurative otitis media in children: Systematic review and meta-analysis.

OBJECTIVES: Chronic suppurative otitis media (CSOM) is defined as persistent discharge through a tympanic membrane perforation for greater than 2 weeks. It is associated with a significant disease burden, including hearing loss, and reducing its incidence could significantly improve short- and long-term health. We aimed to identify risk factors associated with the development of CSOM in children. DESIGN AND SETTING: Systematic review and meta-analysis of studies set in community, primary and secondary care settings, identified from Medline, Embase and Cochrane databases from 2000 to 2022. PARTICIPANTS: Children 16 years old and below. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Clinical diagnosis of CSOM. RESULTS: In total, 739 papers were screened, with 12 deemed eligible for inclusion in the systematic review, of which, 10 were included in the meta-analysis. Risk factors examined included perinatal, patient, dietary, environmental and parental factors. Meta-analysis results indicate that atopy (RR = 1.18, 95% CI [1.01-1.37], p = .04, 2 studies); and birth weight <2500 g (RR = 1.79 [1.27-2.50], p < .01, 2 studies) are associated with an increased risk of CSOM development. Factors not associated were male sex (RR = 0.96 [0.82-1.13], p = .62, 8 studies); exposure to passive smoking (RR = 1.27 [0.81-2.01], p = .30, 3 studies); and parental history of otitis media (RR = 1.14 [0.59-2.20], p = .69, 2 studies). CONCLUSION: Optimal management of risk factors associated with CSOM development will help reduce the burden of disease and prevent disease progression or recurrence. The current quality of evidence in the literature is variable and heterogeneous. Future studies should aim to use standardised classification systems to define risk factors to allow meta-analysis.

Paracetamol (acetaminophen) or non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs, alone or combined, for pain relief in acute otitis media in children.

BACKGROUND: Acute otitis media (AOM) is one of the most common childhood infectious diseases. Pain is the key symptom of AOM and central to children's and parents' experience of the illness. Because antibiotics provide only marginal benefits, analgesic treatment including paracetamol (acetaminophen) and non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAIDs) is regarded as the cornerstone of AOM management. This is an update of a review first published in 2016. OBJECTIVES: Our primary objective was to assess the effectiveness of paracetamol (acetaminophen) or NSAIDs, alone or combined, compared with placebo or no treatment in relieving pain in children with AOM. Our secondary objective was to assess the effectiveness of NSAIDs as compared with paracetamol in children with AOM. SEARCH METHODS: We searched the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL), Issue 5, April 2023; MEDLINE (Ovid, from 1946 to May 2023), Embase (from 1947 to May 2023), CINAHL (from 1981 to May 2023), LILACS (from 1982 to May 2023), and Web of Science Core Collection (from 1955 to May 2023). We searched the WHO ICTRP and ClinicalTrials.gov for completed and ongoing trials (23 May 2023). SELECTION CRITERIA: We included randomised controlled trials comparing the effectiveness of paracetamol or NSAIDs, alone or combined, for pain relief in non-hospitalised children aged six months to 16 years with AOM. We also included trials of paracetamol or NSAIDs, alone or combined, for children with fever or upper respiratory tract infections if we were able to extract subgroup data on pain relief in children with AOM either directly or after obtaining additional data from study authors. We extracted and summarised data for the following comparisons: paracetamol versus placebo, NSAIDs versus placebo, NSAIDs versus paracetamol, and NSAIDs plus paracetamol versus paracetamol alone. DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS: We used standard methodological procedures expected by Cochrane. We rated the overall certainty of evidence for each outcome of interest using the GRADE approach. MAIN RESULTS: We included four trials (411 children) which were assessed at low to high risk of bias. Paracetamol versus placebo Data from one trial (148 children) informed this comparison. Paracetamol may be more effective than placebo in relieving pain at 48 hours (proportion of children with pain 10% versus 25%, risk ratio (RR) 0.38, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.17 to 0.85; number needed to treat for an additional beneficial outcome (NNTB) 7; low-certainty evidence). The evidence is very uncertain about the effects of paracetamol on fever at 48 hours (RR 1.03, 95% CI 0.07 to 16.12; very low-certainty evidence) and adverse events (RR 1.03, 95% CI 0.21 to 4.93; very low-certainty evidence). No data were available for our other outcomes of interest. NSAIDs versus placebo Data from one trial (146 children) informed this comparison. Ibuprofen may be more effective than placebo in relieving pain at 48 hours (proportion of children with pain 7% versus 25%, RR 0.28, 95% CI 0.11 to 0.70; NNTB 6; low-certainty evidence). The evidence is very uncertain about the effect of ibuprofen on fever at 48 hours (RR 1.06, 95% CI 0.07 to 16.57; very low-certainty evidence) and adverse events (RR 1.76, 95% CI 0.44 to 7.10; very low-certainty evidence). No data were available for our other outcomes of interest. NSAIDs versus paracetamol Data from four trials (411 children) informed this comparison. The evidence is very uncertain about the effect of ibuprofen versus paracetamol in relieving ear pain at 24 hours (RR 0.83, 95% CI 0.59 to 1.18; 2 RCTs, 39 children; very low-certainty evidence); 48 to 72 hours (RR 0.91, 95% CI 0.54 to 1.54; 3 RCTs, 183 children; low-certainty evidence); and four to seven days (RR 0.74, 95% CI 0.17 to 3.23; 2 RCTs, 38 children; very low-certainty evidence). The evidence is very uncertain about the effect of ibuprofen versus paracetamol on mean pain score at 24 hours (0.29 lower, 95% CI 0.79 lower to 0.20 higher; 3 RCTs, 111 children; very low-certainty evidence); 48 to 72 hours (0.25 lower, 95% CI 0.66 lower to 0.16 higher; 3 RCTs, 108 children; very low-certainty evidence); and four to seven days (0.30 higher, 95% CI 1.78 lower to 2.38 higher; 2 RCTs, 31 children; very low-certainty evidence). The evidence is very uncertain about the effect of ibuprofen versus paracetamol in resolving fever at 24 hours (RR 0.69, 95% CI 0.24 to 2.00; 2 RCTs, 39 children; very low-certainty evidence); 48 to 72 hours (RR 1.18, 95% CI 0.31 to 4.44; 3 RCTs, 182 children; low-certainty evidence); and four to seven days (RR 2.75, 95% CI 0.12 to 60.70; 2 RCTs, 39 children; very low-certainty evidence). The evidence is very uncertain about the effect of ibuprofen versus paracetamol on adverse events (RR 1.71, 95% CI 0.43 to 6.90; 3 RCTs, 281 children; very low-certainty evidence); reconsultations (RR 1.13, 95% CI 0.92 to 1.40; 1 RCT, 53 children; very low-certainty evidence); and delayed antibiotic prescriptions (RR 1.32, 95% CI 0.74 to 2.35; 1 RCT, 53 children; very low-certainty evidence). No data were available on time to resolution of pain. NSAIDs plus paracetamol versus paracetamol alone Data on the effectiveness of ibuprofen plus paracetamol versus paracetamol alone came from two trials that provided crude subgroup data for 71 children with AOM. The small sample provided imprecise effect estimates, therefore we were unable to draw any firm conclusions (very low-certainty evidence). AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS: Despite explicit guideline recommendations on the use of analgesics in children with AOM, the current evidence on the effectiveness of paracetamol or NSAIDs, alone or combined, in children with AOM is limited. Paracetamol and ibuprofen as monotherapies may be more effective than placebo in relieving short-term ear pain in children with AOM. The evidence is very uncertain for the effect of ibuprofen versus paracetamol on relieving short-term ear pain in children with AOM, as well as for the effectiveness of ibuprofen plus paracetamol versus paracetamol alone, thereby preventing any firm conclusions. Further research is needed to provide insights into the role of ibuprofen as adjunct to paracetamol, and other analgesics such as anaesthetic eardrops, for children with AOM.

Non-pharmaceutical interventions and risk of COVID-19 infection: survey of U.K. public from November 2020 - May 2021.

INTRODUCTION: Non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs), such as handwashing, social distancing and face mask wearing, have been widely promoted to reduce the spread of COVID-19. This study aimed to explore the relationship between self-reported use of NPIs and COVID-19 infection. METHODS: We conducted an online questionnaire study recruiting members of the UK public from November 2020 to May 2021. The association between self-reported COVID-19 illness and reported use of NPIs was explored using logistic regression and controlling for participant characteristics, month of questionnaire completion, and vaccine status. Participants who had been exposed to COVID-19 in their household in the previous 2 weeks were excluded. RESULTS: Twenty-seven thousand seven hundred fifty-eight participants were included and 2,814 (10.1%) reported having a COVID-19 infection. The odds of COVID-19 infection were reduced with use of a face covering in unadjusted (OR 0.17 (95% CI: 0.15 to 0.20) and adjusted (aOR 0.19, 95% CI 0.16 to 0.23) analyses. Social distancing (OR 0.27, 95% CI: 0.22 to 0.31; aOR 0.35, 95% CI 0.28 to 0.43) and handwashing when arriving home (OR 0.57, 95% CI 0.46 to 0.73; aOR 0.63, 95% CI: 0.48 to 0.83) also reduced the odds of COVID-19. Being in crowded places of 10-100 people (OR 1.89, 95% CI: 1.70 to 2.11; aOR 1.62, 95% CI: 1.42 to 1.85) and > 100 people (OR 2.33, 95% CI: 2.11 to 2.58; aOR 1.73, 95% CI: 1.53 to 1.97) were both associated with increased odds of COVID-19 infection. Handwashing before eating, avoiding touching the face, and cleaning things with virus on were all associated with increased odds of COVID-19 infections. CONCLUSIONS: This large observational study found evidence for strong protective effects for individuals from use of face coverings, social distancing (including avoiding crowded places) and handwashing on arriving home on developing COVID-19 infection. We also found evidence for an increased risk associated with other behaviours, possibly from recall bias.

Internet Tool to Support Self-Assessment and Self-Swabbing of Sore Throat: Development and Feasibility Study.

BACKGROUND: Sore throat is a common problem and a common reason for the overuse of antibiotics. A web-based tool that helps people assess their sore throat, through the use of clinical prediction rules, taking throat swabs or saliva samples, and taking throat photographs, has the potential to improve self-management and help identify those who are the most and least likely to benefit from antibiotics. OBJECTIVE: We aimed to develop a web-based tool to help patients and parents or carers self-assess sore throat symptoms and take throat photographs, swabs, and saliva samples for diagnostic testing. We then explored the acceptability and feasibility of using the tool in adults and children with sore throats. METHODS: We used the Person-Based Approach to develop a web-based tool and then recruited adults and children with sore throats who participated in this study by attending general practices or through social media advertising. Participants self-assessed the presence of FeverPAIN and Centor score criteria and attempted to photograph their throat and take throat swabs and saliva tests. Study processes were observed via video call, and participants were interviewed about their views on using the web-based tool. Self-assessed throat inflammation and pus were compared to clinician evaluation of patients' throat photographs. RESULTS: A total of 45 participants (33 adults and 12 children) were recruited. Of these, 35 (78%) and 32 (71%) participants completed all scoring elements for FeverPAIN and Centor scores, respectively, and most (30/45, 67%) of them reported finding self-assessment relatively easy. No valid response was provided for swollen lymph nodes, throat inflammation, and pus on the throat by 11 (24%), 9 (20%), and 13 (29%) participants respectively. A total of 18 (40%) participants provided a throat photograph of adequate quality for clinical assessment. Patient assessment of inflammation had a sensitivity of 100% (3/3) and specificity of 47% (7/15) compared with the clinician-assessed photographs. For pus on the throat, the sensitivity was 100% (3/3) and the specificity was 71% (10/14). A total of 89% (40/45), 93% (42/45), 89% (40/45), and 80% (30/45) of participants provided analyzable bacterial swabs, viral swabs, saliva sponges, and saliva drool samples, respectively. Participants were generally happy and confident in providing samples, with saliva samples rated as slightly more acceptable than swab samples. CONCLUSIONS: Most adult and parent participants were able to use a web-based intervention to assess the clinical features of throat infections and generate scores using clinical prediction rules. However, some had difficulties assessing clinical signs, such as lymph nodes, throat pus, and inflammation, and scores were assessed as sensitive but not specific. Many participants had problems taking photographs of adequate quality, but most were able to take throat swabs and saliva samples.

Antibiotics for lower respiratory tract infection in children presenting in primary care in England (ARTIC PC): a double-blind, randomised, placebo-controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: Antibiotic resistance is a global public health threat. Antibiotics are very commonly prescribed for children presenting with uncomplicated lower respiratory tract infections (LRTIs), but there is little evidence from randomised controlled trials of the effectiveness of antibiotics, both overall or among key clinical subgroups. In ARTIC PC, we assessed whether amoxicillin reduces the duration of moderately bad symptoms in children presenting with uncomplicated (non-pneumonic) LRTI in primary care, overall and in key clinical subgroups. METHODS: ARTIC PC was a double-blind, randomised, placebo-controlled trial done at 56 general practices in England. Eligible children were those aged 6 months to 12 years presenting in primary care with acute uncomplicated LRTI judged to be infective in origin, where pneumonia was not suspected clinically, with symptoms for less than 21 days. Patients were randomly assigned in a 1:1 ratio to receive amoxicillin 50 mg/kg per day or placebo oral suspension, in three divided doses orally for 7 days. Patients and investigators were masked to treatment assignment. The primary outcome was the duration of symptoms rated moderately bad or worse (measured using a validated diary) for up to 28 days or until symptoms resolved. The primary outcome and safety were assessed in the intention-to-treat population. The trial is registered with the ISRCTN Registry (ISRCTN79914298). FINDINGS: Between Nov 9, 2016, and March 17, 2020, 432 children (not including six who withdrew permission for use of their data after randomisation) were randomly assigned to the antibiotics group (n=221) or the placebo group (n=211). Complete data for symptom duration were available for 317 (73%) patients; missing data were imputed for the primary analysis. Median durations of moderately bad or worse symptoms were similar between the groups (5 days [IQR 4-11] in the antibiotics group vs 6 days [4-15] in the placebo group; hazard ratio [HR] 1·13 [95% CI 0·90-1·42]). No differences were seen for the primary outcome between the treatment groups in the five prespecified clinical subgroups (patients with chest signs, fever, physician rating of unwell, sputum or chest rattle, and short of breath). Estimates from complete-case analysis and a per-protocol analysis were similar to the imputed data analysis. INTERPRETATION: Amoxicillin for uncomplicated chest infections in children is unlikely to be clinically effective either overall or for key subgroups in whom antibiotics are commonly prescribed. Unless pneumonia is suspected, clinicians should provide safety-netting advice but not prescribe antibiotics for most children presenting with chest infections. FUNDING: National Institute for Health Research.

The early use of Antibiotics for at Risk CHildren with InfluEnza-like illness (ARCHIE): a double-blind randomised placebo-controlled trial.

INTRODUCTION: The UK government stockpiles co-amoxiclav to treat bacterial complications during influenza pandemics. This pragmatic trial examines whether early co-amoxiclav use reduces reconsultation due to clinical deterioration in "at risk" children presenting with influenza-like illness (ILI) in primary or ambulatory care. METHODS: "At risk" children aged from 6 months to 12 years presenting within 5 days of ILI onset were randomly assigned to oral co-amoxiclav 400/57 or a placebo twice daily for 5 days (dosing based on age±weight). "At risk" groups included children with respiratory, cardiac and neurological conditions. Randomisation was stratified by region and used a non-deterministic minimisation algorithm to balance age and current seasonal influenza vaccination status. Our target sample size was 650 children which would have allowed us to detect a reduction in the proportion of children reconsulting due to clinical deterioration from 40% to 26%, with 90% power and 5% two-tailed alpha error (including allowance for 25% loss to follow-up and an inflation factor of 1.041). Participants, caregivers and investigators were blinded to treatment allocation. Intention-to-treat analysis included all randomised participants with primary outcome data on reconsultation due to clinical deterioration within 28 days. Safety analysis included all randomised participants. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ISRCTN 70714783. EudraCT 2013-002822-21. RESULTS: We recruited 271 children between February 11, 2015 and April 20, 2018. Primary outcome data were available for 265 children. Only 61 out of 265 children (23.0%) reconsulted due to clinical deterioration. No evidence of a treatment effect was observed for reconsultation due to clinical deterioration (33 out of 133 for co-amoxiclav (24.8%) and 28 out of 132 (21.2%) for placebo; adjusted risk ratio (RR) 1.16, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.75-1.80). There was also no evidence of a difference between groups in the proportion of children for whom one or more adverse events (AEs) were reported (32 out of 136 (23.5%) for co-amoxiclav and 22 out of 135 (16.3%) for placebo; adjusted RR 1.45, 95% CI 0.90-2.34). In total, 66 AEs were reported (co-amoxiclav, n=37; placebo, n=29). Nine serious AEs were reported per group, although none were considered related to study medication. CONCLUSION: Our trial did not find evidence that treatment with co-amoxiclav reduces risk of reconsultation due to clinical deterioration in "at risk" children who present early with ILI during influenza season. Our findings therefore do not support early co-amoxiclav use in children with seasonal ILI.

Outcome selection in primary care antimicrobial stewardship research.

Clinical and antimicrobial stewardship (AMS) outcomes are highly relevant to pragmatic primary care trials, reflecting aspects, such as persistent symptoms and relapses, or antibiotic use and antimicrobial resistance. Sometimes both can be equally important. We present evidence demonstrating the wide range of outcome measures used in previous primary care trials and observe that there are no agreed standards for their design. We describe AMS interventions and outcomes in terms of intervention types and targets, and we make recommendations for future research designs. Specifically, we argue that: (i) where co-primary outcomes are considered appropriate, investigators should pre-specify interpretation of conflicting results; (ii) intervention evaluation should ensure prescriptions from sources outside of the usual provider are included in any AMS effectiveness measure; (iii) where possible, outcomes should include antimicrobial resistance; (iv) in some contexts, it may be necessary to include the antibiotics used within the intervention as part of the outcome; and (v) patient involvement is needed to establish the principles investigators should use when deciding whether the AMS or clinical outcomes should be prioritized.

Predisposing factors to acquisition of acute respiratory tract infections in the community: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: Preventing respiratory tract infections (RTIs) could have profound effects on quality of life, primary care workload, antibiotic prescribing and stewardship. We aimed to identify factors that increase and decrease RTI acquisition within Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) member countries. METHODS: Systematic search of Medline, Embase, Cochrane and ISI Web of Knowledge for studies conducted up to July 2020 reporting predisposing factors for community RTI acquisition. Pooled odds ratios were calculated using a random-effects model. RESULTS: 23 studies investigated risk factors associated with community-acquired pneumonia (n = 15); any RTI (n = 4); influenza like illness (n = 2); and lower RTI (n = 2). Demographic, lifestyle and social factors were: underweight BMI (pooled odds ratio (ORp 2.14, 95% CI 1.58 to 2.70, p = 0.97); male sex (ORp 1.30, 95% CI 1.27 to 1.33, p = 0.66); contact with pets (ORp 1.35, 95% CI 1.16 to 1.54, p = 0.72); contact with children (ORp 1.35, 95% CI 1.15 to 1.56, p = 0.05); and ex-smoking status (ORp 1.57, 95% CI 1.26 to 1.88, p = 0.76). Health-related factors were: chronic liver condition (ORp 1.30, 95% CI 1.09 to 1.50, p = 0.34); chronic renal condition (ORp 1.47, 95% CI 1.09 to 1.85, p = 0.14); and any hospitalisation in previous five years (ORp 1.64, 95% CI 1.46 to 1.82, p = 0.66). CONCLUSIONS: We identified several modifiable risk factors associated with increased likelihood of acquiring RTIs in the community, including low BMI, contact with children and pets. Modification of risk factors and increased awareness of vulnerable groups could reduce morbidity, mortality and antibiotic use associated with RTIs. PROSPERO REGISTRATION: CRD42019134176.

Novel multi-virus rapid respiratory microbiological point-of-care testing in primary care: a mixed-methods feasibility evaluation.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: Rapid multi-viral respiratory microbiological point-of-care tests (POCTs) have not been evaluated in UK primary care. The aim of this study was to evaluate the use of a multi-viral microbiological POCT for suspected respiratory tract infections (RTIs). METHODS: In this observational, mixed-methods feasibility study practices were provided with a POCT machine for any patient aged ≥3 months with suspected RTI. Dual throat/nose swabs tested for 17 respiratory viruses and three atypical bacteria, 65 minutes per sample. RESULTS: Twenty clinicians recruited 93 patients (estimated 1:3 of all RTI cases). Patient's median age was 29, 57% female, and 44% with co-morbidities. Pre-test diagnoses: upper RTI (48%); lower RTI (30%); viral/influenza-like illness (18%); other (4%). Median set-up time was 2.72 minutes, with 72% swabs processed <4 hours, 90% <24 hours. Tests detected ≥1 virus in 58%, no pathogen 37% and atypical bacteria 2% (3% inconclusive). Antibiotics were prescribed pre-test to 35% of patients with no pathogen detected and 25% with a virus. Post-test diagnoses changed in 20%, and diagnostic certainty increased (P = 0.02), more so when the test was positive rather than negative (P < 0.001). Clinicians predicted decreased antibiotic benefit post-test (P = 0.02). Interviews revealed the POCT has clear potential, was easy to use and well-liked, but limited by time-to-result and the absence of testing for typical respiratory bacteria. CONCLUSIONS: This POCT was acceptable and appeared to influence clinical reasoning. Clinicians wanted faster time-to-results and more information about bacteria. Randomized trials are needed to understand the safety, efficacy and patient perceptions of these POCTs.

The UK government has called for the introduction of rapid diagnostics to curb overuse of antibiotics for common infections. Multi-viral respiratory 'point-of-care' tests (POCTs) are available but have not been used in UK primary care before. These POCTs use samples from the nose or back of the throat and give results quickly, to see if viruses or bacteria are there. In this study, four GP practices were given POCT machines for 6 weeks to see how they were used. Of the 93 patient samples tested, 3% were inconclusive, 37% tested negative, 58% had at least one virus and only 2% had a bacterial infection. Clinicians were more certain of patient diagnoses after testing especially when a virus or bacterium was detected and they were also less likely to predict the patient would benefit from antibiotics. Clinical diagnoses changed in 20% of patients after testing but less than 10% were contacted to change their treatment plan. During interviews, clinicians revealed they liked the test finding it easy-to-use but wanted faster time-to-results and testing for more bacteria. Clinical trials are needed to see if these POCTs can safely and cost-effectively reduce antibiotic prescribing in primary care.

The role of economic, educational and social resources in supporting the use of digital health technologies by people with T2D: a qualitative study.

BACKGROUND: Type 2 Diabetes (T2D) is a common chronic disease, with socially patterned incidence and severity. Digital self-care interventions have the potential to reduce health disparities, by providing personalised low-cost reusable resources that can increase access to health interventions. However, if under-served groups are unable to access or use digital technologies, Digital Health Technologies (DHTs) might make no difference, or worse, exacerbate health inequity. STUDY AIMS: To gain insights into how and why people with T2D access and use DHTs and how experiences vary between individuals and social groups. METHODS: A purposive sample of people with experience of using a DHT to help them self-care for T2D were recruited through diabetes and community groups. Semi-structured interviews were conducted in person and over the phone. Data were analysed thematically. RESULTS: A diverse sample of 21 participants were interviewed. Health care practitioners were not viewed as a good source of information about DHTs that could support T2D. Instead participants relied on their digital skills and social networks to learn about what DHTs are available and helpful. The main barriers to accessing and using DHT described by the participants were availability of DHTs from the NHS, cost and technical proficiency. However, some participants described how they were able to draw on social resources such as their social networks and social status to overcome these barriers. Participants were motivated to use DHTs because they provided self-care support, a feeling of control over T2D, and personalised advice or feedback. The selection of technology was also guided by participants' preferences and what they valued in relation to DHTs and self-care support, and these in turn were influenced by age and gender. CONCLUSION: This research indicates that low levels of digital skills and high cost of digital health interventions can create barriers to the access and use of DHTs to support the self-care of T2D. However, social networks and social status can be leveraged to overcome some of these challenges. If digital interventions are to decrease rather than exacerbate health inequalities, these barriers and facilitators to access and use must be considered when DHTs are developed and implemented.

Challenges to implementing electronic trial data collection in primary care: a qualitative study.

BACKGROUND: Within-consultation recruitment to primary care trials is challenging. Ensuring procedures are efficient and self-explanatory is the key to optimising recruitment. Trial recruitment software that integrates with the electronic health record to support and partially automate procedures is becoming more common. If it works well, such software can support greater participation and more efficient trial designs. An innovative electronic trial recruitment and outcomes software was designed to support recruitment to the Runny Ear randomised controlled trial, comparing topical, oral and delayed antibiotic treatment for acute otitis media with discharge in children. A qualitative evaluation investigated the views and experiences of primary care staff using this trial software. METHODS: Staff were purposively sampled in relation to site, role and whether the practice successfully recruited patients. In-depth interviews were conducted using a flexible topic guide, audio recorded and transcribed. Data were analysed thematically. RESULTS: Sixteen staff were interviewed, including GPs, practice managers, information technology (IT) leads and research staff. GPs wanted trial software that automatically captures patient data. However, the experience of getting the software to work within the limited and complex IT infrastructure of primary care was frustrating and time consuming. Installation was reliant on practice level IT expertise, which varied between practices. Although most had external IT support, this rarely included supported for research IT. Arrangements for approving new software varied across practices and often, but not always, required authorisation from Clinical Commissioning Groups. CONCLUSIONS: Primary care IT systems are not solely under the control of individual practices or CCGs or the National Health Service. Rather they are part of a complex system that spans all three and is influenced by semi-autonomous stakeholders operating at different levels. This led to time consuming and sometimes insurmountable barriers to installation at the practice level. These need to be addressed if software supporting efficient research in primary care is to become a reality.

Probability of sepsis after infection consultations in primary care in the United Kingdom in 2002-2017: Population-based cohort study and decision analytic model.

BACKGROUND: Efforts to reduce unnecessary antibiotic prescribing have coincided with increasing awareness of sepsis. We aimed to estimate the probability of sepsis following infection consultations in primary care when antibiotics were or were not prescribed. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We conducted a cohort study including all registered patients at 706 general practices in the United Kingdom Clinical Practice Research Datalink, with 66.2 million person-years of follow-up from 2002 to 2017. There were 35,244 first episodes of sepsis (17,886, 51%, female; median age 71 years, interquartile range 57-82 years). Consultations for respiratory tract infection (RTI), skin or urinary tract infection (UTI), and antibiotic prescriptions were exposures. A Bayesian decision tree was used to estimate the probability (95% uncertainty intervals [UIs]) of sepsis following an infection consultation. Age, gender, and frailty were evaluated as association modifiers. The probability of sepsis was lower if an antibiotic was prescribed, but the number of antibiotic prescriptions required to prevent one episode of sepsis (number needed to treat [NNT]) decreased with age. At 0-4 years old, the NNT was 29,773 (95% UI 18,458-71,091) in boys and 27,014 (16,739-65,709) in girls; over 85 years old, NNT was 262 (236-293) in men and 385 (352-421) in women. Frailty was associated with greater risk of sepsis and lower NNT. For severely frail patients aged 55-64 years, the NNT was 247 (156-459) in men and 343 (234-556) in women. At all ages, the probability of sepsis was greatest for UTI, followed by skin infection, followed by RTI. At 65-74 years, the NNT following RTI was 1,257 (1,112-1,434) in men and 2,278 (1,966-2,686) in women; the NNT following skin infection was 503 (398-646) in men and 784 (602-1,051) in women; following UTI, the NNT was 121 (102-145) in men and 284 (241-342) in women. NNT values were generally smaller for the period from 2014 to 2017, when sepsis was diagnosed more frequently. Lack of random allocation to antibiotic therapy might have biased estimates; patients may sometimes experience sepsis or receive antibiotic prescriptions without these being recorded in primary care; recording of sepsis has increased over the study period. CONCLUSIONS: These stratified estimates of risk help to identify groups in which antibiotic prescribing may be more safely reduced. Risks of sepsis and benefits of antibiotics are more substantial among older adults, persons with more advanced frailty, or following UTIs.

Exploring the appropriateness of antibiotic prescribing for common respiratory tract infections in UK primary care.

OBJECTIVES: To use illness severity scores to evaluate the appropriateness of antibiotic prescribing in UK general practice. METHODS: We describe variations in practice prescribing rates, taking account of illness severity. We used three scores in three studies to measure severity: 'FeverPAIN' in an adult acute sore throat cohort (n=12 829), the '3C score' in an adult acute lower respiratory tract infection cohort (n=28 883) and the STARWAVe score in an acute cough and respiratory infection children's cohort (n=8394). We calculated median ORs to quantify practice-level variation in prescribing rates, adjusted for illness severity. RESULTS: There was substantial variability in practice prescribing rates (ranges of 0%-97%, 7%-100% and 0%-75% in the three cohorts, respectively). There was evidence that higher prescribing practices saw a higher proportion of unwell patients. At the individual level, patients who were more unwell were more likely to receive a prescription, but prescribing levels for those with low scores were still high. The median OR was 2.5 (95% credible interval=2.2-2.9) in the sore throat data set, 2.9 (95% credible interval=2.6-3.2) in the adult cough data set and 2.1 (95% credible interval=1.8-2.4) in the children's cough data set. CONCLUSIONS: Higher prescribing practices may see more unwell patients with high illness severity scores, but the differences in scores account for a minority of between-practice prescribing variation. There is likely to be scope for further reductions in antibiotic prescribing among patients with low illness severity scores. Further research is needed to explore the additional factors that account for variation in prescribing levels.

Use of antibiotics and asthma medication for acute lower respiratory tract infections in people with and without asthma: retrospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Antibiotics are overused in patients with acute lower respiratory tract infections (ALRTIs), but less is known about their use in patients with asthma, or the use of asthma medication for ALRTI in patients without asthma. Our aim was to describe the frequency, variation and drivers in antibiotic and asthma medication prescribing for ALRTI in adults with and without asthma in primary care. METHODS: A retrospective cohort analysis of patients aged ≥12 years, diagnosed with an ALRTI in primary care in 2014-15 was conducted using data from the Clinical Practice Research Datalink. Current asthma status, asthma medication and oral antibiotic use within 3 days of ALRTI infection was determined. Treatment frequency was calculated by asthma status. Mixed-effect regression models were used to explore between-practice variation and treatment determinants. RESULTS: There were 127,976 ALRTIs reported among 110,418 patients during the study period, of whom 17,952 (16%) had asthma. Respectively, 81 and 79% of patients with and without asthma received antibiotics, and 41 and 15% asthma medication. There were significant differences in between-practice prescribing for all treatments, with greatest differences seen for oral steroids (odds ratio (OR) 18; 95% CI 7-82 and OR = 94; 33-363, with and without asthma) and asthma medication only (OR 7; 4-18 and OR = 17; 10-33, with and without asthma). Independent predictors of antibiotic prescribing among patients with asthma included fewer previous ALRTI presentations (≥2 vs. 0 previous ALRTI: OR = 0.25; 0.16-0.39), higher practice (OR = 1.47; 1.35-1.60 per SD) and prior antibiotic prescribing (3+ vs. 1 prescriptions OR = 1.28; 1.04-1.57) and concurrent asthma medication (OR = 1.44; 1.32-1.57). Independent predictors of asthma medication in patients without asthma included higher prior asthma medication prescribing (≥7 vs. 0 prescriptions OR = 2.31; 1.83-2.91) and concurrent antibiotic prescribing (OR = 3.59; 3.22-4.01). CONCLUSION: Findings from the study indicate that antibiotics are over-used for ALRTI, irrespective of asthma status, and asthma medication is over-used in patients without asthma, with between-practice variation suggesting considerable clinical uncertainty. Further research is urgently needed to clarify the role of these medications for ALRTI.

Relationship between microbiology of throat swab and clinical course among primary care patients with acute cough: a prospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Acute lower respiratory tract infections (ALRTIs) account for most antibiotics prescribed in primary care despite lack of efficacy, partly due to clinician uncertainty about aetiology and patient concerns about illness course. Nucleic acid amplification tests could assist antibiotic targeting. METHODS: In this prospective cohort study, 645 patients presenting to primary care with acute cough and suspected ALRTI, provided throat swabs at baseline. These were tested for respiratory pathogens by real-time polymerase chain reaction and classified as having a respiratory virus, bacteria, both or neither. Three hundred fifty-four participants scored the symptoms severity daily for 1 week in a diary (0 = absent to 4 = severe problem). RESULTS: Organisms were identified in 346/645 (53.6%) participants. There were differences in the prevalence of seven symptoms between the organism groups at baseline. Those with a virus alone, and those with both virus and bacteria, had higher average severity scores of all symptoms combined during the week of follow-up than those in whom no organisms were detected [adjusted mean differences 0.204 (95% confidence interval 0.010 to 0.398) and 0.348 (0.098 to 0.598), respectively]. There were no differences in the duration of symptoms rated as moderate or severe between organism groups. CONCLUSIONS: Differences in presenting symptoms and symptoms severity can be identified between patients with viruses and bacteria identified on throat swabs. The magnitude of these differences is unlikely to influence management. Most patients had mild symptoms at 7 days regardless of aetiology, which could inform patients about likely symptom duration.