Incorporating climate change into ecosystem service assessments and decisions: a review.

Climate change is having a significant impact on ecosystem services and is likely to become increasingly important as this phenomenon intensifies. Future impacts can be difficult to assess as they often involve long timescales, dynamic systems with high uncertainties, and are typically confounded by other drivers of change. Despite a growing literature on climate change impacts on ecosystem services, no quantitative syntheses exist. Hence, we lack an overarching understanding of the impacts of climate change, how they are being assessed, and the extent to which other drivers, uncertainties, and decision making are incorporated. To address this, we systematically reviewed the peer-reviewed literature that assesses climate change impacts on ecosystem services at subglobal scales. We found that the impact of climate change on most types of services was predominantly negative (59% negative, 24% mixed, 4% neutral, 13% positive), but varied across services, drivers, and assessment methods. Although uncertainty was usually incorporated, there were substantial gaps in the sources of uncertainty included, along with the methods used to incorporate them. We found that relatively few studies integrated decision making, and even fewer studies aimed to identify solutions that were robust to uncertainty. For management or policy to ensure the delivery of ecosystem services, integrated approaches that incorporate multiple drivers of change and account for multiple sources of uncertainty are needed. This is undoubtedly a challenging task, but ignoring these complexities can result in misleading assessments of the impacts of climate change, suboptimal management outcomes, and the inefficient allocation of resources for climate adaptation.

Farming in a changing environment: Increasing biodiversity on farm for the supply of multiple ecosystem services.

Among natural resources, soils continue to be poorly represented in ecosystem services frameworks and decision-making processes. Similarly, the supply of multiple ecosystem services from agro-ecosystems and trade-offs between services remains under-researched. As a consequence, it is unclear how and to what extent agriculture can deliver on environmental sustainability, whilst maintaining current levels of profitability. One of the main barriers to implementation of environmental management practices is the perception by the farming industry that environmental gains come at a cost and impact negatively on profitability. Therefore, we need to demonstrate that inclusion of all the natural resources on farm in farm system design and management offers flexibility for the farm system and insures improved sustainability and greater resilience. In this study, an ecosystem approach was paired with a new generation farm system optimisation model and the inclusion of natural resources beyond land, especially biodiversity, to explore farm system design, and report on ecosystem services beyond food and fibre from different parts of the farm. The approach was tested on a sheep and beef farm in Waikato, New Zealand to explore the added benefits of replanting fragile parts of the farm landscape for soil and biodiversity enhancement on reduced emissions to air and water, and trade-offs between different services and farm profitability. The approach showed that it is possible to define and include ecological boundaries within which resources can be managed to deliver multiple benefits ranging from increased per hectare profitability to decreased environmental footprints. This is a feature analytical farm system frameworks will require in the future. The research also highlighted the importance of developing our understanding of the relationship between the condition and function of indigenous biodiversity fragments and adjacent pastoral ecosystems and their contribution to economic, environmental, cultural and social outcomes on and beyond the farm.

Framing natural assets for advancing sustainability research: translating different perspectives into actions.

Sustainability is a key challenge for humanity in the context of complex and unprecedented global changes. Future Earth, an international research initiative aiming to advance global sustainability science, has recently launched knowledge-action networks (KANs) as mechanisms for delivering its research strategy. The research initiative is currently developing a KAN on "natural assets" to facilitate and enable action-oriented research and synthesis towards natural assets sustainability. 'Natural assets' has been adopted by Future Earth as an umbrella term aiming to translate and bridge across different knowledge systems and different perspectives on peoples' relationships with nature. In this paper, we clarify the framing of Future Earth around natural assets emphasizing the recognition on pluralism and identifying the challenges of translating different visions about the role of natural assets, including via policy formulation, for local to global sustainability challenges. This understanding will be useful to develop inter-and transdisciplinary solutions for human-environmental problems by (i) embracing richer collaborative decision processes and building bridges across different perspectives; (ii) giving emphasis on the interactions between biophysical and socioeconomic drivers affecting the future trends of investments and disinvestments in natural assets; and (iii) focusing on social equity, power relationships for effective application of the natural assets approach. This understanding also intends to inform the scope of the natural asset KAN's research agenda to mobilize the translation of research into co-designed action for sustainability.