The ectonucleotidase CD39 identifies tumor-reactive CD8+ T cells predictive of immune checkpoint blockade efficacy in human lung cancer.

Improved identification of anti-tumor T cells is needed to advance cancer immunotherapies. CD39 expression is a promising surrogate of tumor-reactive CD8+ T cells. Here, we comprehensively profiled CD39 expression in human lung cancer. CD39 expression enriched for CD8+ T cells with features of exhaustion, tumor reactivity, and clonal expansion. Flow cytometry of 440 lung cancer biospecimens revealed weak association between CD39+ CD8+ T cells and tumoral features, such as programmed death-ligand 1 (PD-L1), tumor mutation burden, and driver mutations. Immune checkpoint blockade (ICB), but not cytotoxic chemotherapy, increased intratumoral CD39+ CD8+ T cells. Higher baseline frequency of CD39+ CD8+ T cells conferred improved clinical outcomes from ICB therapy. Furthermore, a gene signature of CD39+ CD8+ T cells predicted benefit from ICB, but not chemotherapy, in a phase III clinical trial of non-small cell lung cancer. These findings highlight CD39 as a proxy of tumor-reactive CD8+ T cells in human lung cancer.

Single-cell analysis of treatment-resistant prostate cancer: Implications of cell state changes for cell surface antigen-targeted therapies.

Targeting cell surface molecules using radioligand and antibody-based therapies has yielded considerable success across cancers. However, it remains unclear how the expression of putative lineage markers, particularly cell surface molecules, varies in the process of lineage plasticity, wherein tumor cells alter their identity and acquire new oncogenic properties. A notable example of lineage plasticity is the transformation of prostate adenocarcinoma (PRAD) to neuroendocrine prostate cancer (NEPC)-a growing resistance mechanism that results in the loss of responsiveness to androgen blockade and portends dismal patient survival. To understand how lineage markers vary across the evolution of lineage plasticity in prostate cancer, we applied single-cell analyses to 21 human prostate tumor biopsies and two genetically engineered mouse models, together with tissue microarray analysis on 131 tumor samples. Not only did we observe a higher degree of phenotypic heterogeneity in castrate-resistant PRAD and NEPC than previously anticipated but also found that the expression of molecules targeted therapeutically, namely PSMA, STEAP1, STEAP2, TROP2, CEACAM5, and DLL3, varied within a subset of gene-regulatory networks (GRNs). We also noted that NEPC and small cell lung cancer subtypes shared a set of GRNs, indicative of conserved biologic pathways that may be exploited therapeutically across tumor types. While this extreme level of transcriptional heterogeneity, particularly in cell surface marker expression, may mitigate the durability of clinical responses to current and future antigen-directed therapies, its delineation may yield signatures for patient selection in clinical trials, potentially across distinct cancer types.

Role of CD38 in anti-tumor immunity of small cell lung cancer.

Introduction: Immune checkpoint blockade (ICB) with or without chemotherapy has a very modest benefit in patients with small cell lung cancer (SCLC). SCLC tumors are characterized by high tumor mutation burden (TMB) and low PD-L1 expression. Therefore, TMB and PD-L1 do not serve as biomarkers of ICB response in SCLC. CD38, a transmembrane glycoprotein, mediates immunosuppression in non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC). In this brief report, we highlight the potential role of CD38 as a probable biomarker of immunotherapy response in SCLC. Methods: We evaluated the role of CD38 as a determinant of tumor immune microenvironment in SCLC with bulk and single-cell transcriptomic analyses and protein assessments of clinical samples and preclinical models, including CD38 in vivo blockade. Results: In SCLC clinical samples, CD38 levels were significantly correlated with the gene expression of the immunosuppressive markers FOXP3, PD-1 and CTLA-4. CD38 expression was significantly enhanced after chemotherapy and ICB treatment in SCLC preclinical models and clinical samples. A combination of cisplatin/etoposide, ICB, and CD38 blockade delayed tumor growth compared to cisplatin/etoposide. Conclusion: Our study provides a preliminary but important direction toward exploring CD38 as a potential biomarker of ICB response and CD38 blockade as a combination strategy for chemo-immunotherapy in SCLC.

Olfactory neuroblastoma mimics molecular heterogeneity and lineage trajectories of small-cell lung cancer.

The olfactory epithelium undergoes neuronal regeneration from basal stem cells and is susceptible to olfactory neuroblastoma (ONB), a rare tumor of unclear origins. Employing alterations in Rb1/Trp53/Myc (RPM), we establish a genetically engineered mouse model of high-grade metastatic ONB exhibiting a NEUROD1+ immature neuronal phenotype. We demonstrate that globose basal cells (GBCs) are a permissive cell of origin for ONB and that ONBs exhibit cell fate heterogeneity that mimics normal GBC developmental trajectories. ASCL1 loss in RPM ONB leads to emergence of non-neuronal histopathologies, including a POU2F3+ microvillar-like state. Similar to small-cell lung cancer (SCLC), mouse and human ONBs exhibit mutually exclusive NEUROD1 and POU2F3-like states, an immune-cold tumor microenvironment, intratumoral cell fate heterogeneity comprising neuronal and non-neuronal lineages, and cell fate plasticity-evidenced by barcode-based lineage tracing and single-cell transcriptomics. Collectively, our findings highlight conserved similarities between ONB and neuroendocrine tumors with significant implications for ONB classification and treatment.

Single Cell Analysis of Treatment-Resistant Prostate Cancer: Implications of Cell State Changes for Cell Surface Antigen Targeted Therapies.

Targeting cell surface molecules using radioligand and antibody-based therapies has yielded considerable success across cancers. However, it remains unclear how the expression of putative lineage markers, particularly cell surface molecules, varies in the process of lineage plasticity, wherein tumor cells alter their identity and acquire new oncogenic properties. A notable example of lineage plasticity is the transformation of prostate adenocarcinoma (PRAD) to neuroendocrine prostate cancer (NEPC)--a growing resistance mechanism that results in the loss of responsiveness to androgen blockade and portends dismal patient survival. To understand how lineage markers vary across the evolution of lineage plasticity in prostate cancer, we applied single cell analyses to 21 human prostate tumor biopsies and two genetically engineered mouse models, together with tissue microarray analysis (TMA) on 131 tumor samples. Not only did we observe a higher degree of phenotypic heterogeneity in castrate-resistant PRAD and NEPC than previously anticipated, but also found that the expression of molecules targeted therapeutically, namely PSMA, STEAP1, STEAP2, TROP2, CEACAM5, and DLL3, varied within a subset of gene-regulatory networks (GRNs). We also noted that NEPC and small cell lung cancer (SCLC) subtypes shared a set of GRNs, indicative of conserved biologic pathways that may be exploited therapeutically across tumor types. While this extreme level of transcriptional heterogeneity, particularly in cell surface marker expression, may mitigate the durability of clinical responses to novel antigen-directed therapies, its delineation may yield signatures for patient selection in clinical trials, potentially across distinct cancer types.

Immune heterogeneity in small-cell lung cancer and vulnerability to immune checkpoint blockade.

Atezolizumab (anti-PD-L1), combined with carboplatin and etoposide (CE), is now a standard of care for extensive-stage small-cell lung cancer (ES-SCLC). A clearer understanding of therapeutically relevant SCLC subsets could identify rational combination strategies and improve outcomes. We conduct transcriptomic analyses and non-negative matrix factorization on 271 pre-treatment patient tumor samples from IMpower133 and identify four subsets with general concordance to previously reported SCLC subtypes (SCLC-A, -N, -P, and -I). Deeper investigation into the immune heterogeneity uncovers two subsets with differing neuroendocrine (NE) versus non-neuroendocrine (non-NE) phenotypes, demonstrating immune cell infiltration hallmarks. The NE tumors with low tumor-associated macrophage (TAM) but high T-effector signals demonstrate longer overall survival with PD-L1 blockade and CE versus CE alone than non-NE tumors with high TAM and high T-effector signal. Our study offers a clinically relevant approach to discriminate SCLC patients likely benefitting most from immunotherapies and highlights the complex mechanisms underlying immunotherapy responses.

CRACD loss promotes small cell lung cancer tumorigenesis via EZH2-mediated immune evasion.

The mechanisms underlying immune evasion and immunotherapy resistance in small cell lung cancer (SCLC) remain unclear. Herein, we investigate the role of CRACD tumor suppressor in SCLC. We found that CRACD is frequently inactivated in SCLC, and Cracd knockout (KO) significantly accelerates SCLC development driven by loss of Rb1, Trp53, and Rbl2. Notably, the Cracd-deficient SCLC tumors display CD8+ T cell depletion and suppression of antigen presentation pathway. Mechanistically, CRACD loss silences the MHC-I pathway through EZH2. EZH2 blockade is sufficient to restore the MHC-I pathway and inhibit CRACD loss-associated SCLC tumorigenesis. Unsupervised single-cell transcriptomic analysis identifies SCLC patient tumors with concomitant inactivation of CRACD, impairment of tumor antigen presentation, and downregulation of EZH2 target genes. Our findings define CRACD loss as a new molecular signature associated with immune evasion of SCLC cells and proposed EZH2 blockade as a viable option for CRACD-negative SCLC treatment.

Lineage tracing reveals clonal progenitors and long-term persistence of tumor-specific T cells during immune checkpoint blockade.

Paired single-cell RNA and T cell receptor sequencing (scRNA/TCR-seq) has allowed for enhanced resolution of clonal T cell dynamics in cancer. Here, we report a scRNA/TCR-seq analysis of 187,650 T cells from 31 tissue regions, including tumor, adjacent normal tissues, and lymph nodes (LN), from three patients with non-small cell lung cancer after immune checkpoint blockade (ICB). Regions with viable cancer cells are enriched for exhausted CD8+ T cells, regulatory CD4+ T cells (Treg), and follicular helper CD4+ T cells (TFH). Tracking T cell clonotypes across tissues, combined with neoantigen specificity assays, reveals that TFH and tumor-specific exhausted CD8+ T cells are clonally linked to TCF7+SELL+ progenitors in tumor draining LNs, and progressive exhaustion trajectories of CD8+ T, Treg, and TFH cells with proximity to the tumor microenvironment. Finally, longitudinal tracking of tumor-specific CD8+ and CD4+ T cell clones reveals persistence in the peripheral blood for years after ICB therapy.

Protocol to dissociate, process, and analyze the human lung tissue using single-cell RNA-seq.

We report a protocol for obtaining high-quality single-cell transcriptomics data from human lung biospecimens acquired from core needle biopsies, fine-needle aspirates, surgical resection, and pleural effusions. The protocol relies upon the brief mechanical and enzymatic disruption of tissue, enrichment of live cells by fluorescence-activated cell sorting (FACS), and droplet-based single-cell RNA sequencing (scRNA-seq). The protocol also details a procedure for analyzing the scRNA-seq data. For complete details on the use and execution of this protocol, please refer to Chan et al. (2021).

Targeting Lysine-Specific Demethylase 1 Rescues Major Histocompatibility Complex Class I Antigen Presentation and Overcomes Programmed Death-Ligand 1 Blockade Resistance in SCLC.

INTRODUCTION: SCLC is a highly aggressive neuroendocrine tumor that is characterized by early acquired therapeutic resistance and modest benefit from immune checkpoint blockade (ICB). Repression of the major histocompatibility complex class I (MHC-I) represents a key mechanism driving resistance to T cell-based immunotherapies. METHODS: We evaluated the role of the lysine-specific demethylase 1 (LSD1) as a determinant of MHC-I expression, functional antigen presentation, and immune activation in SCLC in vitro and in vivo through evaluation of both human SCLC cell lines and immunocompetent mouse models. RESULTS: We found that targeted inhibition of LSD1 in SCLC restores MHC-I cell surface expression and transcriptionally activates genes encoding the antigen presentation pathway. LSD1 inhibition further activates interferon signaling, induces tumor-intrinsic immunogenicity, and sensitizes SCLC cells to MHC-I-restricted T cell cytolysis. Combination of LSD1 inhibitor with ICB augments the antitumor immune response in refractory SCLC models. Together, these data define a role for LSD1 as a potent regulator of MHC-I antigen presentation and provide rationale for combinatory use of LSD1 inhibitors with ICB to improve therapeutic response in SCLC. CONCLUSIONS: Epigenetic silencing of MHC-I in SCLC contributes to its poor response to ICB. Our study identifies a previously uncharacterized role for LSD1 as a regulator of MHC-I antigen presentation in SCLC. LSD1 inhibition enables MHC-I-restricted T cell cytolysis, induces immune activation, and augments the antitumor immune response to ICB in SCLC.

Inhibition of XPO1 Sensitizes Small Cell Lung Cancer to First- and Second-Line Chemotherapy.

Small cell lung cancer (SCLC) is an aggressive malignancy characterized by early metastasis and extreme lethality. The backbone of SCLC treatment over the past several decades has been platinum-based doublet chemotherapy, with the recent addition of immunotherapy providing modest benefits in a subset of patients. However, nearly all patients treated with systemic therapy quickly develop resistant disease, and there is an absence of effective therapies for recurrent and progressive disease. Here we conducted CRISPR-Cas9 screens using a druggable genome library in multiple SCLC cell lines representing distinct molecular subtypes. This screen nominated exportin-1, encoded by XPO1, as a therapeutic target. XPO1 was highly and ubiquitously expressed in SCLC relative to other lung cancer histologies and other tumor types. XPO1 knockout enhanced chemosensitivity, and exportin-1 inhibition demonstrated synergy with both first- and second-line chemotherapy. The small molecule exportin-1 inhibitor selinexor in combination with cisplatin or irinotecan dramatically inhibited tumor growth in chemonaïve and chemorelapsed SCLC patient-derived xenografts, respectively. Together these data identify exportin-1 as a promising therapeutic target in SCLC, with the potential to markedly augment the efficacy of cytotoxic agents commonly used in treating this disease. SIGNIFICANCE: CRISPR-Cas9 screening nominates exportin-1 as a therapeutic target in SCLC, and exportin-1 inhibition enhances chemotherapy efficacy in patient-derived xenografts, providing a novel therapeutic opportunity in this disease.

Lineage plasticity in prostate cancer depends on JAK/STAT inflammatory signaling.

Drug resistance in cancer is often linked to changes in tumor cell state or lineage, but the molecular mechanisms driving this plasticity remain unclear. Using murine organoid and genetically engineered mouse models, we investigated the causes of lineage plasticity in prostate cancer and its relationship to antiandrogen resistance. We found that plasticity initiates in an epithelial population defined by mixed luminal-basal phenotype and that it depends on increased Janus kinase (JAK) and fibroblast growth factor receptor (FGFR) activity. Organoid cultures from patients with castration-resistant disease harboring mixed-lineage cells reproduce the dependency observed in mice by up-regulating luminal gene expression upon JAK and FGFR inhibitor treatment. Single-cell analysis confirms the presence of mixed-lineage cells with increased JAK/STAT (signal transducer and activator of transcription) and FGFR signaling in a subset of patients with metastatic disease, with implications for stratifying patients for clinical trials.

Comprehensive molecular characterization of lung tumors implicates AKT and MYC signaling in adenocarcinoma to squamous cell transdifferentiation.

BACKGROUND: Lineage plasticity, the ability to transdifferentiate among distinct phenotypic identities, facilitates therapeutic resistance in cancer. In lung adenocarcinomas (LUADs), this phenomenon includes small cell and squamous cell (LUSC) histologic transformation in the context of acquired resistance to targeted inhibition of driver mutations. LUAD-to-LUSC transdifferentiation, occurring in up to 9% of EGFR-mutant patients relapsed on osimertinib, is associated with notably poor prognosis. We hypothesized that multi-parameter profiling of the components of mixed histology (LUAD/LUSC) tumors could provide insight into factors licensing lineage plasticity between these histologies. METHODS: We performed genomic, epigenomics, transcriptomics and protein analyses of microdissected LUAD and LUSC components from mixed histology tumors, pre-/post-transformation tumors and reference non-transformed LUAD and LUSC samples. We validated our findings through genetic manipulation of preclinical models in vitro and in vivo and performed patient-derived xenograft (PDX) treatments to validate potential therapeutic targets in a LUAD PDX model acquiring LUSC features after osimertinib treatment. RESULTS: Our data suggest that LUSC transdifferentiation is primarily driven by transcriptional reprogramming rather than mutational events. We observed consistent relative upregulation of PI3K/AKT, MYC and PRC2 pathway genes. Concurrent activation of PI3K/AKT and MYC induced squamous features in EGFR-mutant LUAD preclinical models. Pharmacologic inhibition of EZH1/2 in combination with osimertinib prevented relapse with squamous-features in an EGFR-mutant patient-derived xenograft model, and inhibition of EZH1/2 or PI3K/AKT signaling re-sensitized resistant squamous-like tumors to osimertinib. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings provide the first comprehensive molecular characterization of LUSC transdifferentiation, suggesting putative drivers and potential therapeutic targets to constrain or prevent lineage plasticity.

Signatures of plasticity, metastasis, and immunosuppression in an atlas of human small cell lung cancer.

Small cell lung cancer (SCLC) is an aggressive malignancy that includes subtypes defined by differential expression of ASCL1, NEUROD1, and POU2F3 (SCLC-A, -N, and -P, respectively). To define the heterogeneity of tumors and their associated microenvironments across subtypes, we sequenced 155,098 transcriptomes from 21 human biospecimens, including 54,523 SCLC transcriptomes. We observe greater tumor diversity in SCLC than lung adenocarcinoma, driven by canonical, intermediate, and admixed subtypes. We discover a PLCG2-high SCLC phenotype with stem-like, pro-metastatic features that recurs across subtypes and predicts worse overall survival. SCLC exhibits greater immune sequestration and less immune infiltration than lung adenocarcinoma, and SCLC-N shows less immune infiltrate and greater T cell dysfunction than SCLC-A. We identify a profibrotic, immunosuppressive monocyte/macrophage population in SCLC tumors that is particularly associated with the recurrent, PLCG2-high subpopulation.

Multiomic Analysis of Lung Tumors Defines Pathways Activated in Neuroendocrine Transformation.

Lineage plasticity is implicated in treatment resistance in multiple cancers. In lung adenocarcinomas (LUAD) amenable to targeted therapy, transformation to small cell lung cancer (SCLC) is a recognized resistance mechanism. Defining molecular mechanisms of neuroendocrine (NE) transformation in lung cancer has been limited by a paucity of pre/posttransformation clinical samples. Detailed genomic, epigenomic, transcriptomic, and protein characterization of combined LUAD/SCLC tumors, as well as pre/posttransformation samples, supports that NE transformation is primarily driven by transcriptional reprogramming rather than mutational events. We identify genomic contexts in which NE transformation is favored, including frequent loss of the 3p chromosome arm. We observed enhanced expression of genes involved in the PRC2 complex and PI3K/AKT and NOTCH pathways. Pharmacologic inhibition of the PI3K/AKT pathway delayed tumor growth and NE transformation in an EGFR-mutant patient-derived xenograft model. Our findings define a novel landscape of potential drivers and therapeutic vulnerabilities of NE transformation in lung cancer. SIGNIFICANCE: The difficulty in collection of transformation samples has precluded the performance of molecular analyses, and thus little is known about the lineage plasticity mechanisms leading to LUAD-to-SCLC transformation. Here, we describe biological pathways dysregulated upon transformation and identify potential predictors and potential therapeutic vulnerabilities of NE transformation in the lung. See related commentary by Meador and Lovly, p. 2962. This article is highlighted in the In This Issue feature, p. 2945.

Publisher Correction: Lineage plasticity in cancer: a shared pathway of therapeutic resistance.

An amendment to this paper has been published and can be accessed via a link at the top of the paper.

Lineage plasticity in cancer: a shared pathway of therapeutic resistance.

Lineage plasticity, the ability of cells to transition from one committed developmental pathway to another, has been proposed as a source of intratumoural heterogeneity and of tumour adaptation to an adverse tumour microenvironment including exposure to targeted anticancer treatments. Tumour cell conversion into a different histological subtype has been associated with a loss of dependency on the original oncogenic driver, leading to therapeutic resistance. A well-known pathway of lineage plasticity in cancer - the histological transformation of adenocarcinomas to aggressive neuroendocrine derivatives - was initially described in lung cancers harbouring an EGFR mutation, and was subsequently reported in multiple other adenocarcinomas, including prostate cancer in the presence of antiandrogens. Squamous transformation is a subsequently identified and less well-characterized pathway of adenocarcinoma escape from suppressive anticancer therapy. The increased practice of tumour re-biopsy upon disease progression has increased the recognition of these mechanisms of resistance and has improved our understanding of the underlying biology. In this Review, we provide an overview of the impact of lineage plasticity on cancer progression and therapy resistance, with a focus on neuroendocrine transformation in lung and prostate tumours. We discuss the current understanding of the molecular drivers of this phenomenon, emerging management strategies and open questions in the field.

Tumor Analyses Reveal Squamous Transformation and Off-Target Alterations As Early Resistance Mechanisms to First-line Osimertinib in EGFR-Mutant Lung Cancer.

PURPOSE: Patterns of resistance to first-line osimertinib are not well-established and have primarily been evaluated using plasma assays, which cannot detect histologic transformation and have differential sensitivity for copy number changes and chromosomal rearrangements. EXPERIMENTAL DESIGN: To characterize mechanisms of resistance to osimertinib, patients with metastatic EGFR-mutant lung cancers who received osimertinib at Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center and had next-generation sequencing performed on tumor tissue before osimertinib initiation and after progression were identified. RESULTS: Among 62 patients who met eligibility criteria, histologic transformation, primarily squamous transformation, was identified in 15% of first-line osimertinib cases and 14% of later-line cases. Nineteen percent (5/27) of patients treated with first-line osimertinib had off-target genetic resistance (2 MET amplification, 1 KRAS mutation, 1 RET fusion, and 1 BRAF fusion) whereas 4% (1/27) had an acquired EGFR mutation (EGFR G724S). Patients with squamous transformation exhibited considerable genomic complexity; acquired PIK3CA mutation, chromosome 3q amplification, and FGF amplification were all seen. Patients with transformation had shorter time on osimertinib and shorter survival compared with patients with on-target resistance. Initial EGFR sensitizing mutation, time on osimertinib treatment, and line of therapy also influenced resistance mechanism that emerged. The compound mutation EGFR S768 + V769L and the mutation MET H1094Y were identified and validated as resistance mechanisms with potential treatment options. CONCLUSIONS: Histologic transformation and other off-target molecular alterations are frequent early emerging resistance mechanisms to osimertinib and are associated with poor clinical outcomes.See related commentary by Piotrowska and Hata, p. 2441.

Concurrent RB1 and TP53 Alterations Define a Subset of EGFR-Mutant Lung Cancers at risk for Histologic Transformation and Inferior Clinical Outcomes.

INTRODUCTION: EGFR-mutant lung cancers are clinically and genomically heterogeneous with concurrent RB transcriptional corepressor 1 (RB1)/tumor protein p53 (TP53) alterations identifying a subset at increased risk for small cell transformation. The genomic alterations that induce lineage plasticity are unknown. METHODS: Patients with EGFR/RB1/TP53-mutant lung cancers, identified by next-generation sequencing from 2014 to 2018, were compared to patients with untreated, metastatic EGFR-mutant lung cancers without both RB1 and TP53 alterations. Time to EGFR-tyrosine kinase inhibitor discontinuation, overall survival, SCLC transformation rate, and genomic alterations were evaluated. RESULTS: Patients with EGFR/RB1/TP53-mutant lung cancers represented 5% (43 of 863) of EGFR-mutant lung cancers but were uniquely at risk for transformation (7 of 39, 18%), with no transformations in EGFR-mutant lung cancers without baseline TP53 and RB1 alterations. Irrespective of transformation, patients with EGFR/TP53/RB1-mutant lung cancers had a shorter time to discontinuation than EGFR/TP53- and EGFR-mutant -only cancers (9.5 versus 12.3 versus 36.6 months, respectively, p = 2 × 10-9). The triple-mutant population had a higher incidence of whole-genome doubling compared to NSCLC and SCLC at large (80% versus 34%, p < 5 × 10-9 versus 51%, p < 0.002, respectively) and further enrichment in triple-mutant cancers with eventual small cell histology (seven of seven pre-transformed plus four of four baseline SCLC versus 23 of 32 never transformed, respectively, p = 0.05). Activation-induced cytidine deaminase/apolipoprotein B mRNA editing enzyme, catalytic polypeptide-like mutation signature was also enriched in triple-mutant lung cancers that transformed (false discovery rate = 0.03). CONCLUSIONS: EGFR/TP53/RB1-mutant lung cancers are at unique risk of histologic transformation, with 25% presenting with de novo SCLC or eventual small cell transformation. Triple-mutant lung cancers are enriched in whole-genome doubling and Activation-induced cytidine deaminase/apolipoprotein B mRNA editing enzyme, catalytic polypeptide-like hypermutation which may represent early genomic determinants of lineage plasticity.

Quantifying pathogen surveillance using temporal genomic data.

UNLABELLED: With the advent of deep sequencing, genomic surveillance has become a popular method for detection of infectious disease, supplementing information gathered by classic clinical or serological techniques to identify host-determinant markers and trace the origin of transmission. However, two main factors complicate genomic surveillance. First, pathogens exhibiting high genetic diversity demand higher levels of scrutiny to obtain an accurate representation of the entire population. Second, current systems of detection are nonuniform, with significant gaps in certain geographic locations and animal reservoirs. Despite past unforeseen pandemics like the 2009 swine-origin H1N1 influenza virus, there is no standardized way of evaluating surveillance. A more complete surveillance system should capture a greater proportion of pathogen diversity. Here we present a novel quantitative method of assessing the completeness of genomic surveillance that incorporates the time of sequence collection, as well as the pathogen's evolutionary rate. We propose the q2 coefficient, which measures the proportion of sequenced isolates whose closest neighbor in the past is within a genetic distance equivalent to 2 years of evolution, roughly the median time of changing strain selection for influenza A vaccines. Easily interpretable and significantly faster than other methods, the q2 coefficient requires no full phylogenetic characterization or use of arbitrary clade definitions. Application of the q2 coefficient to influenza A virus confirmed poor sampling of swine and avian populations and identified regions with deficient surveillance. We demonstrate that the q2 coefficient can not only be applied to other pathogens, including dengue and West Nile viruses, but also used to describe surveillance dynamics, particularly the effects of different public health policies. IMPORTANCE: Surveillance programs have become key assets in determining the emergence or prevalence of pathogens circulating in human and animal populations. Genomic surveillance, in particular, provides comprehensive information on the history of isolates and potential molecular markers for infectivity and pathogenicity. Current techniques for evaluating genomic surveillance are inaccurate, ignoring the pathogen's evolutionary rate and biodiversity, as well as the timing of sequence collection. Using sequence data, we propose the q2 coefficient as a quantitative measure of surveillance completeness that combines elements of time and evolution without defining arbitrary criteria for clades or species. Through several case studies of influenza A, dengue, and West Nile viruses, we employed the q2 coefficient to identify sampling deficiencies in different host species and locations, as well as examine the effects of different public health policies through historical records of the q2 coefficient. These results can guide public health agencies to focus resource allocation and virus collection to bolster specific problems in surveillance.