Changing hepatocellular carcinoma incidence and liver cancer mortality rates in the United States.

OBJECTIVES: The objectives were to describe Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) incidence trends and the US liver cancer mortality trends by geography, age, race/ethnicity, and gender. METHODS: HCC incidence data from SEER 18 registries and liver cancer mortality data from the National Center for Health Statistics were analyzed. Rates and joinpoint trends were calculated by demographic subgroup. State-level liver cancer mortality rates and trends were mapped. RESULTS: HCC incidence rates in SEER registries did not significantly increase during 2007-2010; however, the US liver cancer mortality rates did increase. HCC incidence and liver cancer mortality rates increased among black, Hispanic, and white men aged 50+ years and decreased among 35-49-year-old men in all racial/ethnic groups including Asians/Pacific Islanders. Significantly increasing incidence and mortality rates among women were restricted to blacks, Hispanics, and whites aged 50+ years. Asian/Pacific Islander liver cancer mortality rates decreased during 2000-2010 with decreasing rates among women aged 50-64 years and men aged 35-49 years and stable rates in other groups. During 2006-2010, among individuals 50-64 years of age, blacks and Hispanics had higher incidence and mortality rates than Asians/Pacific Islanders. Liver cancer mortality rates were highest in Louisiana, Mississippi, Texas, and Washington, DC. CONCLUSIONS: Decreasing HCC incidence and liver cancer mortality rates among Asians/Pacific Islanders, men aged 35-49 years, and the nonsignificant increase in overall HCC incidence rates suggest that the peak of the epidemic may be near or have passed. Findings of geographic variation in mortality rates can inform control efforts.

Predicting US- and state-level cancer counts for the current calendar year: Part II: evaluation of spatiotemporal projection methods for incidence.

BACKGROUND: The current study was undertaken to evaluate the spatiotemporal projection models applied by the American Cancer Society to predict the number of new cancer cases. METHODS: Adaptations of a model that has been used since 2007 were evaluated. Modeling is conducted in 3 steps. In step I, ecologic predictors of spatiotemporal variation are used to estimate age-specific incidence counts for every county in the country, providing an estimate even in those areas that are missing data for specific years. Step II adjusts the step I estimates for reporting delays. In step III, the delay-adjusted predictions are projected 4 years ahead to the current calendar year. Adaptations of the original model include updating covariates and evaluating alternative projection methods. Residual analysis and evaluation of 5 temporal projection methods were conducted. RESULTS: The differences between the spatiotemporal model-estimated case counts and the observed case counts for 2007 were < 1%. After delays in reporting of cases were considered, the difference was 2.5% for women and 3.3% for men. Residual analysis indicated no significant pattern that suggested the need for additional covariates. The vector autoregressive model was identified as the best temporal projection method. CONCLUSIONS: The current spatiotemporal prediction model is adequate to provide reasonable estimates of case counts. To project the estimated case counts ahead 4 years, the vector autoregressive model is recommended to be the best temporal projection method for producing estimates closest to the observed case counts.

A geo-view into historical patterns of smoke-free policy coverage in the USA.

INTRODUCTION: Ample evidence shows that implementation of smoke-free policies can significantly reduce tobacco use. The indoor smoke-free policy coverage in the U.S. increased over the past 25 years. This study synthesized the available historical smoke-free policy data and achieved two complementary goals: 1) reconstructed historical patterns of indoor smoke-free policy coverage in the U.S., and 2) developed a web-based interactive tool for visualization and download of the U.S. historical smoke-free policy data for research. METHODS: Historical information on local and regional smoke-free policy was downloaded from the American Nonsmokers Rights Foundation (ANRF). Subsequent methodological processes included: geo-referencing of smoke-free policy data, spatial-temporal data linkage, spatial pattern analysis, data visualization, and the development of an interactive tool. RESULTS: The percentage of population covered by the smoke-free policies varies across the different geographic locations, scales, and over time. On average, the percentage of people covered by the smoke-free laws in the U.S. increased substantially in the recent decade. The Tobacco-Policy-Viewer reveals geographic patterns of increase in smoke-free policy adoption by cities, counties, and States over time. CONCLUSION: The utility of visualizing the historical patterns of smoke-free policy coverage in the U.S. is to understand where and for how long smoke-free policies were in place for indoor facilities and to inform planning for education and interventions in the areas of need. The benefit of data provided for download, via the Tobacco-Policy-Viewer, is to catalyze future research on the impacts of historical smoke-free policy coverage on reduction in secondhand-smoke exposures, tobacco use, and tobacco related diseases.

Prioritizing US Cervical Cancer Prevention With Results From a Geospatial Model.

PURPOSE: To determine if differences in screening and vaccination patterns across the population may accentuate ethnic and geographic variation in future burden of disease. METHODS: Using Cancer in North America data provided by the North American Association of Central Cancer Registries, county cervical cancer incidence trends from 1995 to 2009 were modeled for the entire United States using ecologic covariates. Rates for health service areas were also modeled by ethnicity. State-level incidence was mapped together with Papanicolaou (Pap) screening, past 3 years (women ≥ 18 years old), and three-dose human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccine coverage (girls 13 to 17 years old) to identify potential priority areas for preventive services. RESULTS: US cervical cancer incidence decreased more during the periods 1995 to 1999 and 2000 to 2004 than during the period 2005 to 2009. During these 15 years, the most affected areas became increasingly confined to Appalachia, the lower Mississippi Valley, the Deep South, Texas, and Florida. Hispanic and black women experienced a higher incidence of cervical cancer than both white and Asian and Pacific Islander women during each period. Women in 10 of 17 states/districts with a high incidence (≥ 8.14/100,000) reported low Pap testing (< 78.5%), HPV vaccine coverage (< 33.9%), or both prevention technologies. CONCLUSION: The decline in cervical cancer incidence has slowed in recent years. Access to HPV vaccination, targeted screening, and treatment in affected populations is needed to reduce cervical cancer disparities in the future.

Spatial patterns of localized-stage prostate cancer incidence among white and black men in the southeastern United States, 1999-2001.

BACKGROUND: In the United States, prostate cancer incidence is higher among black than among white males, with a higher proportion of blacks diagnosed with advanced-stage cancer. METHODS: Prostate cancer incidence (1999-2001) and census tract data were obtained for 66,468 cases in four states that account for 20% of U.S. blacks: Georgia, Florida, Alabama, and Tennessee. Spatial clusters of localized-stage prostate cancer incidence were detected by spatial scan. Clusters were examined by relative risk, population density, and socioeconomic and racial attributes. RESULTS: Overall prostate cancer incidence rates were higher in black than in white men, and a lower proportion of black cases were diagnosed with localized-stage cancer. Strong associations were seen between urban residence and high relative risk of localized-stage cancer. The highest relative risks generally occurred in clusters with a lower percent black population than the national average. Conversely, of eight nonurban clusters with significantly elevated relative risk of localized-disease, seven had a higher proportion of blacks than the national average. Furthermore, positive correlations between percent black population and relative risk of localized-stage cancer were seen in Alabama and Georgia. CONCLUSION: Association between urban residence and high relative risk of localized-stage disease (favorable prognosis) persisted after spatial clusters were stratified by percent black population. Unexpectedly, seven of eight nonurban clusters with high relative risk of localized-stage disease had a higher percentage of blacks than the U.S. population. IMPACT: Although evidence of racial disparity in prostate cancer was found, there were some encouraging findings. Studies of community-level factors that might contribute to these findings are recommended.