Quantifying key parameters related to the life cycle of Caligus rogercresseyi.

The salmon louse Caligus rogercresseyi (Boxshall and Bravo 2000) is a common ectoparasite of farmed salmonids in Chile. Sea lice can negatively impact the growth of hosts, adversely affecting aquaculture productivity. Unlike Lepeophtheirus salmonis (Krøyer, 1838), whose life cycle parameters have been well studied due to its importance in the Northern Hemisphere, for C. rogercresseyi no single source exists that quantifies the parameters required to model this ectoparasite's life cycle. Given that different species of sea lice have substantially different biological characteristics, it is important to parameterize the life cycle of C. rogercresseyi using appropriate observational data, rather than simply trying to adapt parameters developed for L. salmonis. Using data from existing literature, we quantified the development and survival rates for each stage in the C. rogercresseyi life cycle. We illustrate how development rates are affected by water temperature and explore the important impacts of salinity on rates of survival. We present equations that can be used to model development periods and survival proportions given certain water temperature and salinity profiles. While key parameters to quantitatively model the life cycle of C. rogercresseyi are presented, further research is required to adequately model the complete population dynamics of this ectoparasite on Chilean salmon farms and consequently to support decision-making to achieve effective control and mitigation.

Effects of Waning Maternal Immunity on Infection Dynamics in Seasonally Breeding Wildlife.

Increasing outbreaks of emerging infectious diseases originating from wildlife have intensified interests in understanding their dynamics in reservoir hosts. The effect of waning maternally derived antibodies on epidemics in a seasonally breeding wild mammal population is unclear. We examined how the population structure, influenced by seasonal breeding and maternally derived immunity, affects viral invasion and persistence using a hypothetical system based on Hendra virus infection in black flying foxes (Pteropus alecto). A deterministic Hendra virus epidemic model with uncertainty in parameter values was used to simulate transient epidemics following viral introduction into an infection-free population, including various timings within a year and differences in pre-existing seroprevalence. Additionally, we applied different modelling methods of waning maternal immunity to examine whether different models notably affected modelling outputs. The waning of maternally derived immunity temporally dispersed the supply of susceptible individuals in seasonally breeding populations, diminishing the effect of birth pulses generating the temporally synchronised supply of susceptible newborns. Thus, even in a population with seasonal births, a considerable level of probabilities of viral invasion and persistence could occur no matter when infectious individuals were introduced into the population. Viral invasion and persistence were substantially influenced by the modelling method of maternally derived immunity, emphasising the need to select an appropriate method and further investigate the waning pattern of maternally derived antibodies.

Using Stochastic Modeling to Predict the Effect of Culling and Colony Dispersal of Bats on Zoonotic Viral Epidemics.

Frequent outbreaks of emerging infectious diseases originating from wild animals have highlighted the necessity of managing wildlife populations to prevent zoonotic spillover, and the appropriate development of management protocols required attention on gaining a better understanding of viral dynamics in wild animal populations. In east Australia, there have been outbreaks of Hendra virus (HeV) infection in horses and humans following spillover from the virus's reservoir hosts, flying foxes (family Pteropodidae), and bat culling and colony dispersal have been proposed as appropriate management strategies. A key factor relating to flying fox population structure that influences HeV dynamics is that these bats form metapopulations, and consequently, to assess this factor, we designed an epidemic dynamics model of HeV transmission, focusing on bat metapopulation dynamics. Specifically, using flying fox movement data, we stochastically simulated models for a hypothetical metapopulation of flying foxes to examine the impact of metapopulation-related parameters, and subsequently simulated probable scenarios of culling and colony dispersal to estimate their effects on the probability of epidemic occurrence. Modeling of the hypothetical metapopulation revealed that a reduction in the number of large-sized colonies would lead to an increase in the probability of epidemic occurrence within the bat population, whereas the strong spatial coupling among colonies was found to dilute the effects of altering the number of colonies and the number of bats in each colony through culling or colony dispersal of bats on the probability that an epidemic within the bat population would occur. Culling and colony dispersal scenarios showed no significantly beneficial effect with respect to reducing the probability of an HeV epidemic occurring in flying foxes, and may indeed prove counterproductive. In conclusion, the modeling results indicate that bat culling and colony dispersal may not be an effective strategy to control HeV epidemics.

Synergistic Effects of Heat-Killed Kefir Paraprobiotics and Flavonoid-Rich Prebiotics on Western Diet-Induced Obesity.

The synergistic anti-obesity effect of paraprobiotic heat-killed lactic acid bacteria (HLAB) and prebiotics has not been studied. To determine the anti-obesity properties of prebiotic polyphenol-rich wine grape seed flour (GSF) and paraprobiotic HLAB, C57BL/6J mice were administered a high-fat and high-fructose diet (HFFrD) with 5% microcrystalline cellulose (CON), HFFrD supplemented with 2.5% GSF, HFFrD with orally administered HLAB, or HFFrD with a combination of GSF and orally administered HLAB (GSF+HLAB) for 8 weeks. Compared with the CON group, the GSF and HLAB groups both showed significant reductions in HFFrD-induced body weight gain and adipose tissue weights (p < 0.05). Interestingly, combined supplementation with GSF and HLAB revealed statistically significant synergistic effects on body weight gain, visceral adiposity, and plasma triacylglycerol concentrations (p < 0.05). The synergistic action was significantly related to a decreased adipocyte gene expression in fatty acid synthesis and inflammation metabolism. In conclusion, the combination of prebiotic GSF and paraprobiotic kefir HLAB is potentially useful, as natural food ingredients, in the prevention of obesity and obesity-related diseases, especially for immunocompromised individuals.

Quantitative Risk Assessment Model for Salmonellosis in Chicken Skewers from Street Food Vendors in South Korea.

HIGHLIGHTS: Extended holding time increases likelihood of illness in warmer than it does in cooler months. Split heating is less effective than continuous heating for inactivation of microbes. Longer holding times make meat more vulnerable to microbes.

Risk Assessment for Salmonellosis in Chicken in South Korea: The Effect of Salmonella Concentration in Chicken at Retail.

Salmonellosis caused by chicken consumption has been a critical issue in food safety worldwide, including in Korea. The probability of illness from consumption of chicken was simulated in study, based on the recipe of Dakgalbi, a commonly eaten chicken dish in Korea. Additionally, the processing stage at slaughterhouses to decrease Salmonella concentration in broilers was modeled to explore its effect on the likelihood of illness. A Monte Carlo simulation model was created using @RISK. Prevalence of Salmonella in chickens at the retail stage was found to be predominantly important in determining the probability of illness. Other than the prevalence, cooking temperature was found to have the largest impact on the probability of illness. The results also demonstrated that, although chlorination is a powerful tool for decreasing the Salmonella concentration in chicken, this effect did not last long and was negated by the following stages. This study analyzes the effects of variables of the retail-to-table pathway on the likelihood of salmonellosis in broiler consumption, and also evaluates the processing step used to decrease the contamination level of Salmonella in broilers at slaughterhouses. According to the results, we suggest that methods to decrease the contamination level of Salmonella such as chlorination had little effect on decreasing the probability of illness. Overall, these results suggest that preventing contamination of broiler with Salmonella must be a top priority and that methods to reduce the concentration of Salmonella in broilers at slaughterhouses hardly contribute to safe consumption of Salmonella-contaminated chicken.

Stochastic model of porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome virus control strategies on a swine farm in the United States.

OBJECTIVE: To use mathematical modeling to assess the effectiveness of control strategies for porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome (PRRS) virus on a swine farm. SAMPLE: A hypothetical small, medium, or large farrow-to-weaning swine farm in the Midwestern United States. PROCEDURES: Stochastic models were formulated to simulate an outbreak of PRRS on a farm. Control strategies assessed in those models included none (baseline) and various combinations of mass immunization, herd closure, and gilt acclimatization. Nine different models resulting from the combination of low, moderate, or high PRRS virus virulence and small, medium, or large herd size were simulated. A stabilized status, the outcome of interest, was defined as the absence of positive PCR assay results for PRRS virus in 3-week-old piglets. For each scenario, the percentage of simulations with a stabilized status was used as a proxy for the probability of disease control. RESULTS: Increasing PRRS virus virulence and herd size were negatively associated with the probability of achieving a stabilized status. Repeated mass immunization with herd closure or gilt acclimitization was a better alternative than was single mass immunization for disease control within a farm. CONCLUSIONS AND CLINICAL RELEVANCE: Repeated mass immunization with a PRRS modified-live virus vaccine with herd closure or gilt acclimitization was the scenario most likely to achieve a stabilized status. Estimation of the cost of various PRRS control strategies is necessary.