Associations between pathological features and risk of metachronous colorectal cancer.

Survivors of colorectal cancer (CRC) are at risk of developing another primary colorectal cancer - metachronous CRC. Understanding which pathological features of the first tumour are associated with risk of metachronous CRC might help tailor existing surveillance guidelines. Population-based CRC cases were recruited from the United States, Canada and Australia between 1997 and 2012 and followed prospectively until 2022 by the Colon Cancer Family Registry. Metachronous CRC was defined as a new primary CRC diagnosed at least 1 year after the initial CRC. Those with the genetic cancer predisposition Lynch syndrome or MUTYH mutation carriers were excluded. Cox regression models were fitted to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) and corresponding 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for the associations. Of 6085 CRC cases, 138 (2.3%) were diagnosed with a metachronous CRC over a median follow-up time of 12 years (incidence: 2.0 per 1000 person-years). CRC cases with a synchronous CRC were 3.4-fold more likely to develop a metachronous CRC (adjusted HR: 3.36, 95% CI: 1.89-5.98) than those without a synchronous tumour. CRC cases with MMR-deficient tumours had a 72% increased risk of metachronous CRC (adjusted HR: 1.72, 95% CI: 1.11-2.64) compared to those with MMR-proficient tumours. Compared to cases who had an adenocarcinoma histologic type, those with an undifferentiated histologic type were 77% less likely to develop a metachronous CRC (adjusted HR: 0.23, 95% CI: 0.06-0.94). Existing surveillance guidelines for CRC survivors could be updated to include increased surveillance for those whose first CRC was diagnosed with a synchronous CRC or was MMR-deficient.

Breast and bowel cancers diagnosed in people 'too young to have cancer': A blueprint for research using family and twin studies.

Young breast and bowel cancers (e.g., those diagnosed before age 40 or 50 years) have far greater morbidity and mortality in terms of years of life lost, and are increasing in incidence, but have been less studied. For breast and bowel cancers, the familial relative risks, and therefore the familial variances in age-specific log(incidence), are much greater at younger ages, but little of these familial variances has been explained. Studies of families and twins can address questions not easily answered by studies of unrelated individuals alone. We describe existing and emerging family and twin data that can provide special opportunities for discovery. We present designs and statistical analyses, including novel ideas such as the VALID (Variance in Age-specific Log Incidence Decomposition) model for causes of variation in risk, the DEPTH (DEPendency of association on the number of Top Hits) and other approaches to analyse genome-wide association study data, and the within-pair, ICE FALCON (Inference about Causation from Examining FAmiliaL CONfounding) and ICE CRISTAL (Inference about Causation from Examining Changes in Regression coefficients and Innovative STatistical AnaLysis) approaches to causation and familial confounding. Example applications to breast and colorectal cancer are presented. Motivated by the availability of the resources of the Breast and Colon Cancer Family Registries, we also present some ideas for future studies that could be applied to, and compared with, cancers diagnosed at older ages and address the challenges posed by young breast and bowel cancers.

Intratumoral presence of the genotoxic gut bacteria pks+ E. coli, Enterotoxigenic Bacteroides fragilis, and Fusobacterium nucleatum and their association with clinicopathological and molecular features of colorectal cancer.

BACKGROUND: This study aimed to investigate clinicopathological and molecular tumour features associated with intratumoral pks+ Escherichia coli (pks+E.coli+), pks+E.coli- (non-E.coli bacteria harbouring the pks island), Enterotoxigenic Bacteroides fragilis (ETBF) and Fusobacterium nucleatum (F. nucleatum). METHODS: We screened 1697 tumour-derived DNA samples from the Australasian Colorectal Cancer Family Registry, Melbourne Collaborative Cohort Study and the ANGELS study using targeted PCR. RESULTS: Pks+E.coli+ was associated with male sex (P < 0.01) and APC:c.835-8 A > G somatic mutation (P = 0.03). The association between pks+E.coli+ and APC:c.835-8 A > G was specific to early-onset CRCs (diagnosed<45years, P = 0.02). The APC:c.835-A > G was not associated with pks+E.coli- (P = 0.36). F. nucleatum was associated with DNA mismatch repair deficiency (MMRd), BRAF:c.1799T>A p.V600E mutation, CpG island methylator phenotype, proximal tumour location, and high levels of tumour infiltrating lymphocytes (Ps < 0.01). In the stratified analysis by MMRd subgroups, F. nucleatum was associated with Lynch syndrome, MLH1 methylated and double MMR somatic mutated MMRd subgroups (Ps < 0.01). CONCLUSION: Intratumoral pks+E.coli+ but not pks+E.coli- are associated with CRCs harbouring the APC:c.835-8 A > G somatic mutation, suggesting that this mutation is specifically related to DNA damage from colibactin-producing E.coli exposures. F. nucleatum was associated with both hereditary and sporadic MMRd subtypes, suggesting the MMRd tumour microenvironment is important for F. nucleatum colonisation irrespective of its cause.

Risk factors for metachronous colorectal cancer and advanced neoplasia following primary colorectal cancer: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: Identifying risk factors for metachronous colorectal cancer (CRC) and metachronous advanced neoplasia could be useful for guiding surveillance. We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis to investigate risk factors for metachronous CRC and advanced neoplasia. METHODS: Searches were conducted in MEDLINE, Embase, Web of Science and Cochrane Central Registry of Controlled Trials for articles (searching period: 1945 to Feburary, 2021) that reported the results of an association between any factor and metachronous advanced neoplasia or metachronous CRC. There were no restrictions on the publication date or language. Random effects models were fitted to estimate the combined association between the risk factors and metachronous CRC or advanced neoplasia. The Risk of Bias In Non-Randomised Studies of Interventions tool (ROBINS-I) was used to assess the risk of bias of included studies. RESULTS: In total, 22 observational studies with 625,208 participants were included in the systematic review and meta-analysis. Of these, 13 studies investigated risk factors for metachronous CRC and 9 for advanced neoplasia. The risks of metachronous CRC or advanced neoplasia were higher if the first CRC was diagnosed in the presence of a synchronous advanced lesion (pooled risk ratio (RR) from 3 studies: 3.61, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.44-9.05; and pooled RR from 8 studies: 2.77, 95% CI: 2.23-3.43, respectively). The risk of metachronous CRC was lower, but the risk of metachronous advanced neoplasia was higher if the first CRC was distal (compared with proximal) (pooled RR from 3 studies: 0.48, 95% CI: 0.23-0.98; and pooled RR from 2 studies: 2.99, 95% CI: 1.60-5.58 respectively). The risk of metachronous advanced neoplasia increased with age (pooled RR from 3 studies: 1.07 per year of age, 95% CI: 1.03-1.11). There was no evidence that any lifestyle risk factors studied were associated with the risk of metachronous CRC or advanced neoplasia. CONCLUSIONS: The identified risk factors for metachronous CRC and advanced neoplasia might be useful to tailor the existing surveillance guidelines after the first CRC. There were potential limitations due to possible misclassification of the outcome, confounding and risk of bias, and the findings cannot be generalised to high-risk genetic syndrome cases.

Update of penetrance estimates in Birt-Hogg-Dubé syndrome.

BACKGROUND: Birt-Hogg-Dubé (BHD) syndrome is a rare genetic syndrome caused by pathogenic or likely pathogenic germline variants in the FLCN gene. Patients with BHD syndrome have an increased risk of fibrofolliculomas, pulmonary cysts, pneumothorax and renal cell carcinoma. There is debate regarding whether colonic polyps should be added to the criteria. Previous risk estimates have mostly been based on small clinical case series. METHODS: A comprehensive review was conducted to identify studies that had recruited families carrying pathogenic or likely pathogenic variants in FLCN. Pedigree data were requested from these studies and pooled. Segregation analysis was used to estimate the cumulative risk of each manifestation for carriers of FLCN pathogenic variants. RESULTS: Our final dataset contained 204 families that were informative for at least one manifestation of BHD (67 families informative for skin manifestations, 63 for lung, 88 for renal carcinoma and 29 for polyps). By age 70 years, male carriers of the FLCN variant have an estimated 19% (95% CI 12% to 31%) risk of renal tumours, 87% (95% CI 80% to 92%) of lung involvement and 87% (95% CI 78% to 93%) of skin lesions, while female carriers had an estimated 21% (95% CI 13% to 32%) risk of renal tumours, 82% (95% CI 73% to 88%) of lung involvement and 78% (95% CI 67% to 85%) of skin lesions. The cumulative risk of colonic polyps by age 70 years old was 21% (95% CI 8% to 45%) for male carriers and 32% (95% CI 16% to 53%) for female carriers. CONCLUSIONS: These updated penetrance estimates, based on a large number of families, are important for the genetic counselling and clinical management of BHD syndrome.

DNA methylation profile in CpG-depleted regions uncovers a high-risk subtype of early-stage colorectal cancer.

BACKGROUND: The current risk stratification system defined by clinicopathological features does not identify the risk of recurrence in early-stage (stage I-II) colorectal cancer (CRC) with sufficient accuracy. We aimed to investigate whether DNA methylation could serve as a novel biomarker for predicting prognosis in early-stage CRC patients. METHODS: We analyzed the genome-wide methylation status of CpG loci using Infinium MethylationEPIC array run on primary tumor tissues and normal mucosa of early-stage CRC patients to identify potential methylation markers for prognosis. The machine-learning approach was applied to construct a DNA methylation-based prognostic classifier for early-stage CRC (MePEC) using the 4 gene methylation markers FAT3, KAZN, TLE4, and DUSP3. The prognostic value of the classifier was evaluated in 2 independent cohorts (n = 438 and 359, respectively). RESULTS: The comprehensive analysis identified an epigenetic subtype with high risk of recurrence based on a group of CpG loci in the CpG-depleted region. In multivariable analysis, the MePEC classifier was independently and statistically significantly associated with time to recurrence in validation cohort 1 (hazard ratio = 2.35, 95% confidence interval = 1.47 to 3.76, P < .001) and cohort 2 (hazard ratio = 3.20, 95% confidence interval = 1.92 to 5.33, P < .001). All results were further confirmed after each cohort was stratified by clinicopathological variables and molecular subtypes. CONCLUSIONS: We demonstrated the prognostic statistical significance of a DNA methylation profile in the CpG-depleted region, which may serve as a valuable source for tumor biomarkers. MePEC could identify an epigenetic subtype with high risk of recurrence and improve the prognostic accuracy of current clinical variables in early-stage CRC.

A validation of models for prediction of pathogenic variants in mismatch repair genes.

PURPOSE: Models used to predict the probability of an individual having a pathogenic homozygous or heterozygous variant in a mismatch repair gene, such as MMRpro, are widely used. Recently, MMRpro was updated with new colorectal cancer penetrance estimates. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the predictive performance of MMRpro and other models for individuals with a family history of colorectal cancer. METHODS: We performed a validation study of 4 models, Leiden, MMRpredict, PREMM5, and MMRpro, using 784 members of clinic-based families from the United States. Predicted probabilities were compared with germline testing results and evaluated for discrimination, calibration, and predictive accuracy. We analyzed several strategies to combine models and improve predictive performance. RESULTS: MMRpro with additional tumor information (MMRpro+) and PREMM5 outperformed the other models in discrimination and predictive accuracy. MMRpro+ was the best calibrated with an observed to expected ratio of 0.98 (95% CI = 0.89-1.08). The combination models showed improvement over PREMM5 and performed similar to MMRpro+. CONCLUSION: MMRpro+ and PREMM5 performed well in predicting the probability of having a pathogenic homozygous or heterozygous variant in a mismatch repair gene. They serve as useful clinical decision tools for identifying individuals who would benefit greatly from screening and prevention strategies.

Genetic Regulation of DNA Methylation Yields Novel Discoveries in GWAS of Colorectal Cancer.

BACKGROUND: Colorectal cancer has a strong epigenetic component that is accompanied by frequent DNA methylation (DNAm) alterations in addition to heritable genetic risk. It is of interest to understand the interrelationship of germline genetics, DNAm, and colorectal cancer risk. METHODS: We performed a genome-wide methylation quantitative trait locus (meQTL) analysis in 1,355 people, assessing the pairwise associations between genetic variants and lymphocytes methylation data. In addition, we used penalized regression with cis-genetic variants ± 1 Mb of methylation to identify genome-wide heritable DNAm. We evaluated the association of genetically predicted methylation with colorectal cancer risk based on genome-wide association studies (GWAS) of over 125,000 cases and controls using the multivariate sMiST as well as univariately via examination of marginal association with colorectal cancer risk. RESULTS: Of the 142 known colorectal cancer GWAS loci, 47 were identified as meQTLs. We identified four novel colorectal cancer-associated loci (NID2, ATXN10, KLHDC10, and CEP41) that reside over 1 Mb outside of known colorectal cancer loci and 10 secondary signals within 1 Mb of known loci. CONCLUSIONS: Leveraging information of DNAm regulation into genetic association of colorectal cancer risk reveals novel pathways in colorectal cancer tumorigenesis. Our summary statistics-based framework sMiST provides a powerful approach by combining information from the effect through methylation and residual direct effects of the meQTLs on disease risk. Further validation and functional follow-up of these novel pathways are needed. IMPACT: Using genotype, DNAm, and GWAS, we identified four new colorectal cancer risk loci. We studied the landscape of genetic regulation of DNAm via single-SNP and multi-SNP meQTL analyses.

Risk Stratification for Early-Onset Colorectal Cancer Using a Combination of Genetic and Environmental Risk Scores: An International Multi-Center Study.

BACKGROUND: The incidence of colorectal cancer (CRC) among individuals aged younger than 50 years has been increasing. As screening guidelines lower the recommended age of screening initiation, concerns including the burden on screening capacity and costs have been recognized, suggesting that an individualized approach may be warranted. We developed risk prediction models for early-onset CRC that incorporate an environmental risk score (ERS), including 16 lifestyle and environmental factors, and a polygenic risk score (PRS) of 141 variants. METHODS: Relying on risk score weights for ERS and PRS derived from studies of CRC at all ages, we evaluated risks for early-onset CRC in 3486 cases and 3890 controls aged younger than 50 years. Relative and absolute risks for early-onset CRC were assessed according to values of the ERS and PRS. The discriminatory performance of these scores was estimated using the covariate-adjusted area under the receiver operating characteristic curve. RESULTS: Increasing values of ERS and PRS were associated with increasing relative risks for early-onset CRC (odds ratio per SD of ERS = 1.14, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.08 to 1.20; odds ratio per SD of PRS = 1.59, 95% CI = 1.51 to 1.68), both contributing to case-control discrimination (area under the curve = 0.631, 95% CI = 0.615 to 0.647). Based on absolute risks, we can expect 26 excess cases per 10 000 men and 21 per 10 000 women among those scoring at the 90th percentile for both risk scores. CONCLUSIONS: Personal risk scores have the potential to identify individuals at differential relative and absolute risk for early-onset CRC. Improved discrimination may aid in targeted CRC screening of younger, high-risk individuals, potentially improving outcomes.

DNA methylation-based signature of CD8+ tumor-infiltrating lymphocytes enables evaluation of immune response and prognosis in colorectal cancer.

BACKGROUND: Tumor-infiltrating lymphocytes (TILs), especially CD8+ TILs, can be used for predicting immunotherapy responsiveness and survival outcome. However, the evaluation of CD8+ TILs currently relies on histopathological methodology with high variability. We therefore aimed to develop a DNA methylation signature for CD8+ TILs (CD8+ MeTIL) that could evaluate immune response and prognosis in colorectal cancer (CRC). METHODS: A CD8+ MeTIL signature score was constructed by using CD8+ T cell-specific differentially methylated positions (DMPs) that were identified from Illumina EPIC methylation arrays. Immune cells, colon epithelial cells, and two CRC cohorts (n=282 and 335) were used to develop a PCR-based assay for quantitative analysis of DNA methylation at single-base resolution (QASM) to determine CD8 + MeTIL signature score. RESULTS: Three CD8+ T cell-specific DMPs were identified to construct the CD8+ MeTIL signature score, which showed a dramatic discriminability between CD8+ T cells and other cells. The QASM assay we developed for CD8+ MeTIL markers could measure CD8+ TILs distributions in a fully quantitative, accurate, and simple manner. The CD8+ MeTIL score determined by QASM assay showed a strong association with histopathology-based CD8+ TIL counts and a gene expression-based immune marker. Furthermore, the low CD8+ MeTIL score (enriched CD8+ TILs) was associated with MSI-H tumors and predicted better survival in CRC cohorts. CONCLUSIONS: This study developed a quantitative DNA methylation-based signature that was reliable to evaluate CD8+ TILs and prognosis in CRC. This approach has the potential to be a tool for investigations on CD8+ TILs and a biomarker for therapeutic approaches, including immunotherapy.

A Meta-Analysis of Obesity and Risk of Colorectal Cancer in Patients with Lynch Syndrome: The Impact of Sex and Genetics.

There appears to be a sex-specific association between obesity and colorectal neoplasia in patients with Lynch Syndrome (LS). We meta-analyzed studies reporting on obesity and colorectal cancer (CRC) risk in LS patients to test whether obese subjects were at increased risk of cancer compared to those of normal weight. We explored also a possible sex-specific relationship between adiposity and CRC risk among patients with LS. The summary relative risk (SRR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) were calculated through random effect models. We investigated the causes of between-study heterogeneity and assessed the presence of publication bias. We were able to retrieve suitable data from four independent studies. We found a twofold risk of CRC in obese men compared to nonobese men (SRR = 2.09; 95%CI: 1.23-3.55, I2 = 33%), and no indication of publication bias (p = 0.13). No significantly increased risk due to obesity was found for women. A 49% increased CRC risk for obesity was found for subjects with an MLH1 mutation (SRR = 1.49; 95%CI: 1.11-1.99, I2 = 0%). These results confirm the different effects of sex on obesity and CRC risk and also support the public measures to reduce overweight in people with LS, particularly for men.

DNA Methylation Signatures and the Contribution of Age-Associated Methylomic Drift to Carcinogenesis in Early-Onset Colorectal Cancer.

We investigated aberrant DNA methylation (DNAm) changes and the contribution of ageing-associated methylomic drift and age acceleration to early-onset colorectal cancer (EOCRC) carcinogenesis. Genome-wide DNAm profiling using the Infinium HM450K on 97 EOCRC tumour and 54 normal colonic mucosa samples was compared with: (1) intermediate-onset CRC (IOCRC; diagnosed between 50-70 years; 343 tumour and 35 normal); and (2) late-onset CRC (LOCRC; >70 years; 318 tumour and 40 normal). CpGs associated with age-related methylation drift were identified using a public dataset of 231 normal mucosa samples from people without CRC. DNAm-age was estimated using epiTOC2. Common to all three age-of-onset groups, 88,385 (20% of all CpGs) CpGs were differentially methylated between tumour and normal mucosa. We identified 234 differentially methylated genes that were unique to the EOCRC group; 13 of these DMRs/genes were replicated in EOCRC compared with LOCRCs from TCGA. In normal mucosa from people without CRC, we identified 28,154 CpGs that undergo ageing-related DNAm drift, and of those, 65% were aberrantly methylated in EOCRC tumours. Based on the mitotic-based DNAm clock epiTOC2, we identified age acceleration in normal mucosa of people with EOCRC compared with normal mucosa from the IOCRC, LOCRC groups (p = 3.7 × 10-16) and young people without CRC (p = 5.8 × 10-6). EOCRC acquires unique DNAm alterations at 234 loci. CpGs associated with ageing-associated drift were widely affected in EOCRC without needing the decades-long accrual of DNAm drift as commonly seen in intermediate- and late-onset CRCs. Accelerated ageing in normal mucosa from people with EOCRC potentially underlies the earlier age of diagnosis in CRC carcinogenesis.

Nongenetic Determinants of Risk for Early-Onset Colorectal Cancer.

Background: Incidence of early-onset (younger than 50 years of age) colorectal cancer (CRC) is increasing in many countries. Thus, elucidating the role of traditional CRC risk factors in early-onset CRC is a high priority. We sought to determine whether risk factors associated with late-onset CRC were also linked to early-onset CRC and whether association patterns differed by anatomic subsite. Methods: Using data pooled from 13 population-based studies, we studied 3767 CRC cases and 4049 controls aged younger than 50 years and 23 437 CRC cases and 35 311 controls aged 50 years and older. Using multivariable and multinomial logistic regression, we estimated odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) to assess the association between risk factors and early-onset CRC and by anatomic subsite. Results: Early-onset CRC was associated with not regularly using nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (OR = 1.43, 95% CI = 1.21 to 1.68), greater red meat intake (OR = 1.10, 95% CI = 1.04 to 1.16), lower educational attainment (OR = 1.10, 95% CI = 1.04 to 1.16), alcohol abstinence (OR = 1.23, 95% CI = 1.08 to 1.39), and heavier alcohol use (OR = 1.25, 95% CI = 1.04 to 1.50). No factors exhibited a greater excess in early-onset compared with late-onset CRC. Evaluating risks by anatomic subsite, we found that lower total fiber intake was linked more strongly to rectal (OR = 1.30, 95% CI = 1.14 to 1.48) than colon cancer (OR = 1.14, 95% CI = 1.02 to 1.27; P = .04). Conclusion: In this large study, we identified several nongenetic risk factors associated with early-onset CRC, providing a basis for targeted identification of those most at risk, which is imperative in mitigating the rising burden of this disease.

Evaluating the utility of tumour mutational signatures for identifying hereditary colorectal cancer and polyposis syndrome carriers.

OBJECTIVE: Germline pathogenic variants (PVs) in the DNA mismatch repair (MMR) genes and in the base excision repair gene MUTYH underlie hereditary colorectal cancer (CRC) and polyposis syndromes. We evaluated the robustness and discriminatory potential of tumour mutational signatures in CRCs for identifying germline PV carriers. DESIGN: Whole-exome sequencing of formalin-fixed paraffin-embedded (FFPE) CRC tissue was performed on 33 MMR germline PV carriers, 12 biallelic MUTYH germline PV carriers, 25 sporadic MLH1 methylated MMR-deficient CRCs (MMRd controls) and 160 sporadic MMR-proficient CRCs (MMRp controls) and included 498 TCGA CRC tumours. COSMIC V3 single base substitution (SBS) and indel (ID) mutational signatures were assessed for their ability to differentiate CRCs that developed in carriers from non-carriers. RESULTS: The combination of mutational signatures SBS18 and SBS36 contributing >30% of a CRC's signature profile was able to discriminate biallelic MUTYH carriers from all other non-carrier control CRCs with 100% accuracy (area under the curve (AUC) 1.0). SBS18 and SBS36 were associated with specific MUTYH variants p.Gly396Asp (p=0.025) and p.Tyr179Cys (p=5×10-5), respectively. The combination of ID2 and ID7 could discriminate the 33 MMR PV carrier CRCs from the MMRp control CRCs (AUC 0.99); however, SBS and ID signatures, alone or in combination, could not provide complete discrimination (AUC 0.79) between CRCs from MMR PV carriers and sporadic MMRd controls. CONCLUSION: Assessment of SBS and ID signatures can discriminate CRCs from biallelic MUTYH carriers and MMR PV carriers from non-carriers with high accuracy, demonstrating utility as a potential diagnostic and variant classification tool.

Genome-wide Modeling of Polygenic Risk Score in Colorectal Cancer Risk.

Accurate colorectal cancer (CRC) risk prediction models are critical for identifying individuals at low and high risk of developing CRC, as they can then be offered targeted screening and interventions to address their risks of developing disease (if they are in a high-risk group) and avoid unnecessary screening and interventions (if they are in a low-risk group). As it is likely that thousands of genetic variants contribute to CRC risk, it is clinically important to investigate whether these genetic variants can be used jointly for CRC risk prediction. In this paper, we derived and compared different approaches to generating predictive polygenic risk scores (PRS) from genome-wide association studies (GWASs) including 55,105 CRC-affected case subjects and 65,079 control subjects of European ancestry. We built the PRS in three ways, using (1) 140 previously identified and validated CRC loci; (2) SNP selection based on linkage disequilibrium (LD) clumping followed by machine-learning approaches; and (3) LDpred, a Bayesian approach for genome-wide risk prediction. We tested the PRS in an independent cohort of 101,987 individuals with 1,699 CRC-affected case subjects. The discriminatory accuracy, calculated by the age- and sex-adjusted area under the receiver operating characteristics curve (AUC), was highest for the LDpred-derived PRS (AUC = 0.654) including nearly 1.2 M genetic variants (the proportion of causal genetic variants for CRC assumed to be 0.003), whereas the PRS of the 140 known variants identified from GWASs had the lowest AUC (AUC = 0.629). Based on the LDpred-derived PRS, we are able to identify 30% of individuals without a family history as having risk for CRC similar to those with a family history of CRC, whereas the PRS based on known GWAS variants identified only top 10% as having a similar relative risk. About 90% of these individuals have no family history and would have been considered average risk under current screening guidelines, but might benefit from earlier screening. The developed PRS offers a way for risk-stratified CRC screening and other targeted interventions.

Correction: Cancer risks by gene, age, and gender in 6350 carriers of pathogenic mismatch repair variants: findings from the Prospective Lynch Syndrome Database.

An amendment to this paper has been published and can be accessed via a link at the top of the paper.

Pathways to a cancer-free future: a protocol for modelled evaluations to minimise the future burden of colorectal cancer in Australia.

INTRODUCTION: With almost 50% of cases preventable and the Australian National Bowel Cancer Screening Program in place, colorectal cancer (CRC) is a prime candidate for investment to reduce the cancer burden. The challenge is determining effective ways to reduce morbidity and mortality and their implementation through policy and practice. Pathways-Bowel is a multistage programme that aims to identify best-value investment in CRC control by integrating expert and end-user engagement; relevant evidence; modelled interventions to guide future investment; and policy-driven implementation of interventions using evidence-based methods. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: Pathways-Bowel is an iterative work programme incorporating a calibrated and validated CRC natural history model for Australia (Policy1-Bowel) and assessing the health and cost outcomes and resource use of targeted interventions. Experts help identify and prioritise modelled evaluations of changing trends and interventions and critically assess results to advise on their real-world applicability. Where appropriate the results are used to support public policy change and make the case for optimal investment in specific CRC control interventions. Fourteen high-priority evaluations have been modelled or planned, including evaluations of CRC outcomes from the changing prevalence of modifiable exposures, including smoking and body fatness; potential benefits of daily aspirin intake as chemoprevention; increasing CRC incidence in people aged <50 years; increasing screening participation in the general and Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander populations; alternative screening technologies and modalities; and changes to follow-up surveillance protocols. Pathways-Bowel is a unique, comprehensive approach to evaluating CRC control; no prior body of work has assessed the relative benefits of a variety of interventions across CRC development and progression to produce a list of best-value investments. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: Ethics approval was not required as human participants were not involved. Findings are reported in a series of papers in peer-reviewed journals and presented at fora to engage the community and policymakers.

Potential impact of family history-based screening guidelines on the detection of early-onset colorectal cancer.

BACKGROUND: Initiating screening at an earlier age based on cancer family history is one of the primary recommended strategies for the prevention and detection of early-onset colorectal cancer (EOCRC), but data supporting the effectiveness of this approach are limited. The authors assessed the performance of family history-based guidelines for identifying individuals with EOCRC. METHODS: The authors conducted a population-based, case-control study of individuals aged 40 to 49 years with (2473 individuals) and without (772 individuals) incident CRC in the Colon Cancer Family Registry from 1998 through 2007. They estimated the sensitivity and specificity of family history-based criteria jointly recommended by the American Cancer Society, the US Multi-Society Task Force on CRC, and the American College of Radiology in 2008 for early screening, and the age at which each participant could have been recommended screening initiation if these criteria had been applied. RESULTS: Family history-based early screening criteria were met by approximately 25% of cases (614 of 2473 cases) and 10% of controls (74 of 772 controls), with a sensitivity of 25% and a specificity of 90% for identifying EOCRC cases aged 40 to 49 years. Among 614 individuals meeting early screening criteria, 98.4% could have been recommended screening initiation at an age younger than the observed age of diagnosis. CONCLUSIONS: Of CRC cases aged 40 to 49 years, 1 in 4 met family history-based early screening criteria, and nearly all cases who met these criteria could have had CRC diagnosed earlier (or possibly even prevented) if earlier screening had been implemented as per family history-based guidelines. Additional strategies are needed to improve the detection and prevention of EOCRC for individuals not meeting family history criteria for early screening.

Do the risks of Lynch syndrome-related cancers depend on the parent of origin of the mutation?

Individuals who carry pathogenic mutations in DNA mismatch repair (MMR) genes have high risks of cancer, and small studies have suggested that these risks depend on the sex of the parent from whom the mutation was inherited. We have conducted the first large study of such a parent-of-origin effect (POE). Our study was based on all MMR gene mutation carriers and their relatives in the Colon Cancer Family Registry, comprising 18,226 people. The POE was estimated as a hazard ratio (HR) using a segregation analysis approach that adjusted for ascertainment. HR = 1 corresponds to no POE and HR > 1 corresponds to higher risks for maternal mutations. For all MMR genes combined, the estimated POE HRs were 1.02 (95% confidence interval (CI) 0.75-1.39, p = 0.9) for male colorectal cancer, 1.12 (95% CI 0.81-1.54, p = 0.5) for female colorectal cancer and 0.84 (95% CI 0.52-1.36, p = 0.5) for endometrial cancer. Separate results for each MMR gene were similar. Therefore, despite being well-powered, our study did not find any evidence that cancer risks for MMR gene mutation carriers depend on the parent-of-origin of the mutation. Based on current evidence, we do not recommend that POEs be incorporated into the clinical guidelines or advice for such carriers.