Individual inflammatory marker abnormalities or inflammatory marker scores to identify primary care patients with unexpected weight loss for cancer investigation?

BACKGROUND: Combinations of inflammatory markers are used as prognostic scores in cancer patients with cachexia. We investigated whether they could also be used to prioritise patients attending primary care with unexpected weight loss for cancer investigation. METHODS: We used English primary care electronic health records data linked to cancer registry data from 12,024 patients with coded unexpected weight loss. For each individual inflammatory marker and score we estimated the sensitivity, specificity, likelihood ratios, positive predictive value (PPV) and the area under the curve along with 95% confidence intervals for a cancer diagnosis within six months. RESULTS: The risk of cancer associated with two abnormal inflammatory markers combined in a score was higher than the risk associated with individual inflammatory marker abnormalities. However, the risk of cancer in weight loss associated with individual abnormalities, notably a raised C-reactive protein, was sufficient to trigger further investigation for cancer under current NICE guidelines. CONCLUSIONS: If scores including pairs of inflammatory marker abnormalities were to be used, in preference to individual abnormalities, fewer people would be investigated to diagnose one cancer with fewer false positives, but fewer people with cancer would be diagnosed overall.

Determinants and extent of weight recording in UK primary care: an analysis of 5 million adults' electronic health records from 2000 to 2017.

BACKGROUND: Excess weight and unexpected weight loss are associated with multiple disease states and increased morbidity and mortality, but weight measurement is not routine in many primary care settings. The aim of this study was to characterise who has had their weight recorded in UK primary care, how frequently, by whom and in relation to which clinical events, symptoms and diagnoses. METHODS: A longitudinal analysis of UK primary care electronic health records (EHR) data from 2000 to 2017. Descriptive statistics were used to summarise weight recording in terms of patient sociodemographic characteristics, health professional encounters, clinical events, symptoms and diagnoses. Negative binomial regression was used to model the likelihood of having a weight record each year, and Cox regression to the likelihood of repeated weight recording. RESULTS: A total of 14,049,871 weight records were identified in the EHR of 4,918,746 patients during the study period, representing 26,998,591 person-years of observation. Around a third of patients had a weight record each year. Forty-nine percent of weight records were repeated within a year with an average time to a repeat weight record of 1.92 years. Weight records were most often taken by nursing staff (38-42%) and GPs (37-39%) as part of a routine clinical care, such as chronic disease reviews (16%), medication reviews (6-8%) and health checks (6-7%), or were associated with consultations for contraception (5-8%), respiratory disease (5%) and obesity (1%). Patient characteristics independently associated with an increased likelihood of weight recording were as follows: female sex, younger and older adults, non-drinkers, ex-smokers, low or high BMI, being more deprived, diagnosed with a greater number of comorbidities and consulting more frequently. The effect of policy-level incentives to record weight did not appear to be sustained after they were removed. CONCLUSION: Weight recording is not a routine activity in UK primary care. It is recorded for around a third of patients each year and is repeated on average every 2 years for these patients. It is more common in females with higher BMI and in those with comorbidity. Incentive payments and their removal appear to be associated with increases and decreases in weight recording.

An internet-delivered handwashing intervention to modify influenza-like illness and respiratory infection transmission (PRIMIT): a primary care randomised trial.

BACKGROUND: Handwashing to prevent transmission of respiratory tract infections (RTIs) has been widely advocated, especially during the H1N1 pandemic. However, the role of handwashing is debated, and no good randomised evidence exists among adults in non-deprived settings. We aimed to assess whether an internet-delivered intervention to modify handwashing would reduce the number of RTIs among adults and their household members. METHODS: We recruited individuals sharing a household by mailed invitation through general practices in England. After consent, participants were randomised online by an automated computer-generated random number programme to receive either no access or access to a bespoke automated web-based intervention that maximised handwashing intention, monitored handwashing behaviour, provided tailored feedback, reinforced helpful attitudes and norms, and addressed negative beliefs. We enrolled participants into an additional cohort (randomised to receive intervention or no intervention) to assess whether the baseline questionnaire on handwashing would affect handwashing behaviour. Participants were not masked to intervention allocation, but statistical analysis commands were constructed masked to group. The primary outcome was number of episodes of RTIs in index participants in a modified intention-to-treat population of randomly assigned participants who completed follow-up at 16 weeks. This trial is registered with the ISRCTN registry, number ISRCTN75058295. FINDINGS: Across three winters between Jan 17, 2011, and March 31, 2013, we enrolled 20,066 participants and randomly assigned them to receive intervention (n=10,040) or no intervention (n=10,026). 16,908 (84%) participants were followed up with the 16 week questionnaire (8241 index participants in intervention group and 8667 in control group). After 16 weeks, 4242 individuals (51%) in the intervention group reported one or more episodes of RTI compared with 5135 (59%) in the control group (multivariate risk ratio 0·86, 95% CI 0·83-0·89; p<0·0001). The intervention reduced transmission of RTIs (reported within 1 week of another household member) both to and from the index person. We noted a slight increase in minor self-reported skin irritation (231 [4%] of 5429 in intervention group vs 79 [1%] of 6087 in control group) and no reported serious adverse events. INTERPRETATION: In non-pandemic years, an effective internet intervention designed to increase handwashing could have an important effect in reduction of infection transmission. In view of the heightened concern during a pandemic and the likely role of the internet in access to advice, the intervention also has potential for effective implementation during a pandemic. FUNDING: Medical Research Council.

Is screening for AF worthwhile? Stroke risk in a screened population from the SAFE study.

INTRODUCTION: Atrial fibrillation (AF) is an important independent risk factor for stroke and oral anticoagulation therapy provides a highly effective treatment to reduce this risk. Active screening strategies improve detection of AF in comparison with routine care; however, whether screen-detected patients have stroke risk profiles favouring anticoagulation is unclear. Using data derived from the screening for AF in the elderly (SAFE) study, the aim of this article was to determine if patients with AF detected via active screening have stroke risk profiles that warrant prophylactic anticoagulation. METHODS: Secondary analysis of data derived from 25 general practices within which cohorts of 200 patients were randomly allocated to opportunistic [pulse and electrocardiogram (ECG)] or systematic screening (postal invitation for ECG). Stroke risk assessment was undertaken using baseline data extracted from medical records and CHADS2 criteria. CHADS2 scores were compared between the screening groups. RESULTS: One hundred and forty-nine new cases of AF were detected, 75 via opportunistic screening and 74 via systematic screening. CHADS2 scores were ≥1 in 83% [95% confidence interval (CI) 72.6-89.6] of patients detected via opportunistic screening and 78% (95% CI 67.7-86.2) detected via systematic screening. There were no significant differences in stroke risk profiles of patients detected via opportunistic and systematic screenings. CONCLUSION: Stroke risk profiles of patients detected via opportunistic and systematic screenings were similar. Data derived from the SAFE study suggest that active screening for AF in patients aged ≥65 years in primary care is a useful screening programme with 78-83% of patients identified eligible for anticoagulation treatment according to the CHADS2 criteria.

Serum matrix metalloproteinase 9 and colorectal neoplasia: a community-based evaluation of a potential diagnostic test.

BACKGROUND: A blood test may be a more acceptable routine colorectal cancer (CRC) screening test than faecal occult blood test, flexible sigmoidoscopy or colonoscopy, and could be safer and cheaper. We evaluated the accuracy of a serum matrix metalloproteinase (MMP9) test for CRC in a non-presenting symptomatic population. METHODS: A cohort, aged 50-69 with lower gastrointestinal symptoms, was identified by community-based survey. Accuracy of serum MMP9 was assessed by comparison with colonoscopy. Logistic regression identified predictors of neoplasia and receiver operating characteristic curve analyses determined the cutoff to maximise the sensitivity. RESULTS: Data were available for 748 patients. Overall, 46 cases of neoplasia were identified. Univariate analysis demonstrated that demographic characteristics, behavioural factors, clinical symptoms and raised serum MMP9 concentration were all significantly associated with the presence of neoplasia. Our final logistic regression model had a sensitivity of 79% and specificity of 70%. CONCLUSION: We demonstrated a significant association between serum MMP9 concentration and the presence of neoplasia. Serum MMP9 levels are raised in those with cancer and high-risk adenomas, although MMP9 estimation is likely to have the greatest predictive utility when used as part of a panel of biomarkers. Further work is required to identify biomarkers that are sufficiently accurate for implementing into routine practice.

Treatment pathways for patients with atrial fibrillation.

BACKGROUND: Although there has been growing concordance over what constitutes best practice in recent guidelines for treatment of atrial fibrillation (AF), notably regarding anticoagulant use, it remains unclear whether patients are being treated accordingly. AIMS: The aims of this study were to explore the pattern of treatment pathways - i.e. how patients are treated over time - for patients with AF, and to test the hypothesis that comparative to patients in lower stroke-risk categories (as measured by CHADS(2) score), patients with higher CHADS(2) scores are less likely to discontinue anticoagulant therapy or, if not started on anticoagulant treatment, more likely to be transferred to anticoagulant therapy, in keeping with guideline recommendations. SETTING: A total of 67,857 patients with a diagnosis of AF in practices registered with the General Practice Research Database. METHODS: A series of possible treatment pathways were identified, and for each initial treatment, we estimated the probability of treatment change and the average time that a patient newly diagnosed with AF spent on a particular treatment, projected across 5 years and stratified by CHADS(2) score. RESULTS: There was no relationship between CHADS(2) score and maintenance or discontinuation of particular approaches to antithrombotic treatment. While those beginning on antiplatelet therapy were more likely to change treatment than those on anticoagulants (approximately 60% vs. 50% within the first year), as much as one-third of treatment time of all those starting on a therapeutic approach involving anticoagulants featured no use of anticoagulants (either as monotherapy or in combination) over the 5-year period, and whether treatment was discontinued or maintained did not vary by CHADS(2) score. No difference was found in treatment pathways controlling for post-2002 diagnoses as against the whole sample. CONCLUSIONS: Although there is more evidence of treatment maintenance than treatment change, especially in the first year after diagnosis, the amount of therapeutic change remains noteworthy and appears higher than in some previous studies. Prescription patterns for AF therapy suggest that too few high-risk patients are receiving best practice treatment, and particularly of concern is that some of these patients are being transferred away from best practice treatment over time.

Impact of study design on recruitment of patients to a primary care trial: an observational time series analysis of the Birmingham Atrial Fibrillation Treatment of the Aged (BAFTA) study.

BACKGROUND: recruitment targets to randomized controlled trials (RCTs) are often not met. Many interventions are used to improve recruitment but there is little empirical evidence on whether these approaches work. OBJECTIVE: to examine whether changes to the design and conduct of a primary care-based RCT were associated with changes in patient recruitment. METHODS: an observational time series analysis of recruitment to a primary care-based multi-centre RCT of aspirin versus warfarin for stroke prevention, which involved 330 practices. Several changes to the trial protocol and procedures were made over the 4 years of patient recruitment. For each quarter throughout the recruitment period, the recruitment rate per 1000 total population in active practices was calculated. RESULTS: the recruitment target of 930 patients was exceeded. Fluctuations in recruitment rate occurred during the recruitment period. Following protocol changes aimed to reduce clinical workload, there was a significant increase in recruitment during the final 6 months of the study, during a period when there was not a similarly large increase in the total population available. CONCLUSIONS: these findings suggest that the conduct of a trial is an important consideration if studies are to recruit successfully. Expanding the number of centres may not be the most effective way to improve recruitment.

Rhythm control agents and adverse events in patients with atrial fibrillation.

BACKGROUND: Atrial fibrillation (AF) is the commonest rhythm disorder and has major impact on patients. Controversy remains about the best treatment strategy between rate and rhythm control (in addition to adequate thromboprophylaxis). Rhythm control agents are associated with clinically important adverse events. AIM: The aim of this study was to assess the risk of adverse events in patients with AF receiving rhythm control agents. DESIGN OF STUDY: This is a retrospective case control note review and outcome linkage analysis. SETTING: Setting of this study included patients with a diagnosis of AF receiving amiodarone, flecainide or sotalol in practices registered with the General Practice Research Database (GPRD) in the UK. METHOD: This is a retrospective case control note review and outcome linkage analysis on the GPRD routine clinical dataset to evaluate the adverse events and predictors of treatment discontinuation in patients using licenced rhythm modifying medication. RESULTS: Adverse events are more common in patients currently or previously taking amiodarone, flecainide or sotalol than age- and gender-matched controls. All three antiarrhythmics were associated with increased all-cause mortality. Congestive heart failure was more common in all amiodarone and sotalol users as well as past users of flecainide. Thyroid disease was more common in patients treated with amiodarone and sotalol but only amiodarone had an increased risk of pulmonary toxicity. The number of patients with liver failure was too small in all cases for statistical analysis. CONCLUSION: The rhythm control agents amiodarone, flecainide and sotalol have significant adverse effects which can lead to discontinuation of their use. This should be considered when deciding the most appropriate treatment option for patients with AF.

UMBRELLA protocol: systematic reviews of multivariable biomarker prognostic models developed to predict clinical outcomes in patients with heart failure.

BACKGROUND: Heart failure (HF) is a chronic and common condition with a rising prevalence, especially in the elderly. Morbidity and mortality rates in people with HF are similar to those with common forms of cancer. Clinical guidelines highlight the need for more detailed prognostic information to optimise treatment and care planning for people with HF. Besides proven prognostic biomarkers and numerous newly developed prognostic models for HF clinical outcomes, no risk stratification models have been adequately established. Through a number of linked systematic reviews, we aim to assess the quality of the existing models with biomarkers in HF and summarise the evidence they present. METHODS: We will search MEDLINE, EMBASE, Web of Science Core Collection, and the prognostic studies database maintained by the Cochrane Prognosis Methods Group combining sensitive published search filters, with no language restriction, from 1990 onwards. Independent pairs of reviewers will screen and extract data. Eligible studies will be those developing, validating, or updating any prognostic model with biomarkers for clinical outcomes in adults with any type of HF. Data will be extracted using a piloted form that combines published good practice guidelines for critical appraisal, data extraction, and risk of bias assessment of prediction modelling studies. Missing information on predictive performance measures will be sought by contacting authors or estimated from available information when possible. If sufficient high quality and homogeneous data are available, we will meta-analyse the predictive performance of identified models. Sources of between-study heterogeneity will be explored through meta-regression using pre-defined study-level covariates. Results will be reported narratively if study quality is deemed to be low or if the between-study heterogeneity is high. Sensitivity analyses for risk of bias impact will be performed. DISCUSSION: This project aims to appraise and summarise the methodological conduct and predictive performance of existing clinically homogeneous HF prognostic models in separate systematic reviews.Registration: PROSPERO registration number CRD42019086990.

Self-monitoring of Blood Pressure in Patients With Hypertension-Related Multi-morbidity: Systematic Review and Individual Patient Data Meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: Studies have shown that self-monitoring of blood pressure (BP) is effective when combined with co-interventions, but its efficacy varies in the presence of some co-morbidities. This study examined whether self-monitoring can reduce clinic BP in patients with hypertension-related co-morbidity. METHODS: A systematic review was conducted of articles published in Medline, Embase, and the Cochrane Library up to January 2018. Randomized controlled trials of self-monitoring of BP were selected and individual patient data (IPD) were requested. Contributing studies were prospectively categorized by whether they examined a low/high-intensity co-intervention. Change in BP and likelihood of uncontrolled BP at 12 months were examined according to number and type of hypertension-related co-morbidity in a one-stage IPD meta-analysis. RESULTS: A total of 22 trials were eligible, 16 of which were able to provide IPD for the primary outcome, including 6,522 (89%) participants with follow-up data. Self-monitoring was associated with reduced clinic systolic BP compared to usual care at 12-month follow-up, regardless of the number of hypertension-related co-morbidities (-3.12 mm Hg, [95% confidence intervals -4.78, -1.46 mm Hg]; P value for interaction with number of morbidities = 0.260). Intense interventions were more effective than low-intensity interventions in patients with obesity (P < 0.001 for all outcomes), and possibly stroke (P < 0.004 for BP control outcome only), but this effect was not observed in patients with coronary heart disease, diabetes, or chronic kidney disease. CONCLUSIONS: Self-monitoring lowers BP regardless of the number of hypertension-related co-morbidities, but may only be effective in conditions such obesity or stroke when combined with high-intensity co-interventions.

Association between serum free thyroxine concentration and atrial fibrillation.

BACKGROUND: Previous studies have suggested that minor changes in thyroid function are associated with risk of atrial fibrillation (AF). Our objective was to determine the relationship between thyroid function and presence of atrial fibrillation (AF) in older subjects. METHODS: A population-based study of 5860 subjects 65 years and older, which excluded those being treated for thyroid dysfunction and those with previous hyperthyroidism. Main outcome measures included tests of thyroid function (serum free thyroxine [T(4)] and thyrotropin [TSH]) and the presence of AF on resting electrocardiogram. RESULTS: Fourteen subjects (0.2%) had previously undiagnosed overt hyperthyroidism and 126 (2.2%), subclinical hyperthyroidism; 5519 (94.4%) were euthyroid; and 167 (2.9%) had subclinical hypothyroidism and 23 (0.4%), overt hypothyroidism. The prevalence of AF in the whole cohort was 6.6% in men and 3.1% in women (odds ratio, 2.23; P<.001). After adjusting for sex, logistic regression showed a higher prevalence of AF in those with subclinical hyperthyroidism compared with euthyroid subjects (9.5% vs 4.7%; adjusted odds ratio, 2.27; P=.01). Median serum free T(4) concentration was higher in those with AF than in those without (1.14 ng/dL; interquartile range [IQR], 1.05-1.27 ng/dL [14.7 pmol/L; IQR, 13.5-16.4 pmol/L] vs 1.10 ng/dL; IQR, 1.00-1.22 ng/dL [14.2 pmol/L; IQR, 12.9-15.7 pmol/L]; P<.001), and higher in those with AF when analysis was limited to euthyroid subjects (1.13 ng/dL; IQR, 1.05-1.26 ng/dL [14.6 pmol/L; IQR, 13.5-16.2 pmol/L] vs 1.10 ng/dL; IQR, 1.01-1.21 ng/dL [14.2 pmol/L; IQR, 13.0-15.6 pmol/L]; P=.001). Logistic regression showed serum free T(4) concentration, increasing category of age, and male sex all to be independently associated with AF. Similar independent associations were observed when analysis was confined to euthyroid subjects with normal TSH values. CONCLUSIONS: The biochemical finding of subclinical hyperthyroidism is associated with AF on resting electrocardiogram. Even in euthyroid subjects with normal serum TSH levels, serum free T(4) concentration is independently associated with AF.

Weight loss as a predictor of cancer and serious disease in primary care: an ISAC-approved CPRD protocol for a retrospective cohort study using routinely collected primary care data from the UK.

BACKGROUND: Unexpected weight loss is a symptom of serious disease in primary care, for example between 1 in 200 and 1 in 30 patients with unexpected weight loss go on to develop cancer. However, it remains unclear how and when general practitioners (GPs) should investigate unexpected weight loss. Without clarification, GPs may wait too long before referring (choosing to watch and wait and potentially missing a diagnosis) or not long enough (overburdening hospital services and exposing patients to the risks of investigation). The overall aim of this study is to provide the evidence necessary to allow GPs to more effectively manage patients with unexpected weight loss. METHODS: A retrospective cohort analysis of UK Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD) data to: (1) describe how often in UK primary care the symptom of reported weight loss is coded, when weight is measured, and how GPs respond to a patient attending with unexpected weight loss; (2) identify the predictive value of recorded weight loss for cancer and serious disease in primary care, using cumulative incidence plots to compare outcomes between subgroups and Cox regression to explore and adjust for covariates. Preliminary work in CPRD estimates that weight loss as a symptom is recorded for approximately 148,000 eligible patients > 18 years and is distributed evenly across decades of age, providing adequate statistical power and precision in relation to cancer overall and common cancers individually. Further stratification by cancer stage will be attempted but may not be possible as not all practices within CPRD are eligible for cancer registry linkage, and staging information is often incomplete. The feasibility of using multiple imputation to address missing covariate values will be explored. DISCUSSION: This will be the largest reported retrospective cohort of primary care patients with weight measurements and unexpected weight loss codes used to understand the association between weight measurement, unexpected weight loss, and serious disease including cancer. Our findings will directly inform international guidelines for the management of unexpected weight loss in primary care populations.

Epidemiological, social, diagnostic and economic evaluation of population screening for genital chlamydial infection.

OBJECTIVES: To investigate epidemiological, social, diagnostic and economic aspects of chlamydia screening in non-genitourinary medicine settings. METHODS: Linked studies around a cross-sectional population-based survey of adult men and women invited to collect urine and (for women) vulvovaginal swab specimens at home and mail these to a laboratory for testing for Chlamydia trachomatis. Specimens were used in laboratory evaluations of an amplified enzyme immunoassay (PCE EIA) and two nucleic acid amplification tests [Cobas polymerase chain reaction (PCR), Becton Dickinson strand displacement amplification (SDA)]. Chlamydia-positive cases and two negative controls completed a risk factor questionnaire. Chlamydia-positive cases were invited into a randomised controlled trial of partner notification strategies. Samples of individuals testing negative completed psychological questionnaires before and after screening. In-depth interviews were conducted at all stages of screening. Chlamydia transmission and cost-effectiveness of screening were investigated in a transmission dynamic model. SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS: General population in the Bristol and Birmingham areas of England. In total, 19,773 women and men aged 16-39 years were randomly selected from 27 general practice lists. RESULTS: Screening invitations reached 73% (14,382/19,773). Uptake (4731 participants), weighted for sampling, was 39.5% (95% CI 37.7, 40.8%) in women and 29.5% (95% CI 28.0, 31.0%) in men aged 16-39 years. Chlamydia prevalence (219 positive results) in 16-24 year olds was 6.2% (95% CI 4.9, 7.8%) in women and 5.3% (95% CI 4.4, 6.3%) in men. The case-control study did not identify any additional factors that would help target screening. Screening did not adversely affect anxiety, depression or self-esteem. Participants welcomed the convenience and privacy of home-sampling. The relative sensitivity of PCR on male urine specimens was 100% (95% CI 89.1, 100%). The combined relative sensitivities of PCR and SDA using female urine and vulvovaginal swabs were 91.8% (86.1, 95.7, 134/146) and 97.3% (93.1, 99.2%, 142/146). A total of 140 people (74% of eligible) participated in the randomised trial. Compared with referral to a genitourinary medicine clinic, partner notification by practice nurses resulted in 12.4% (95% CI -3.7, 28.6%) more patients with at least one partner treated and 22.0% (95% CI 6.1, 37.8%) more patients with all partners treated. The health service and patients costs (2005 prices) of home-based postal chlamydia screening were 21.47 pounds (95% CI 19.91 pounds, 25.99) per screening invitation and 28.56 pounds (95% CI 22.10 pounds, 30.43) per accepted offer. Preliminary modelling found an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (2003 prices) comparing screening men and women annually to no screening in the base case of 27,000 pounds/major outcome averted at 8 years. If estimated screening uptake and pelvic inflammatory disease incidence were increased, the cost-effectiveness ratio fell to 3700 pounds/major outcome averted. CONCLUSIONS: Proactive screening for chlamydia in women and men using home-collected specimens was feasible and acceptable. Chlamydia prevalence rates in men and women in the general population are similar. Nucleic acid amplification tests can be used on first-catch urine specimens and vulvovaginal swabs. The administrative costs of proactive screening were similar to those for opportunistic screening. Using empirical estimates of screening uptake and incidence of complications, screening was not cost-effective.

Major policy changes for primary care: potential lessons for the US New Model of family medicine from the quality and outcomes framework in the United Kingdom.

The Future of Family Medicine project in the United States has identified a series of core values and a New Model of practice for family medicine aiming to transform the health and health care of the nation. There are, however, few empirical examples of its effectiveness and acceptability in practice. Recent experiences of changes to primary health care in the United Kingdom (UK), particularly the introduction of the Quality and Outcomes Framework, which rewards practices for delivering evidence-based care, may provide some useful lessons for practitioners and policy makers as they implement aspects of the New Model. In this paper, the authors, who lead the Expert Review of the Quality and Outcomes Framework, critique the five characteristics of the New Model that offer the most relevant learning points for both health care systems and reflect on lessons for both clinicians and policy makers, highlighted by the experience of implementing policy change in the UK. They suggest that incremental implementation, underpinned by robust pilot data and in-depth understanding of the influence of motivation on performance, are key and conclude that sharing issues that have worked well, and less well, are important in helping both countries develop good quality patient care.

From breathless to failure: symptom onset and diagnostic meaning in patients with heart failure-a qualitative study.

OBJECTIVES: To explore 2 key points in the heart failure diagnostic pathway-symptom onset and diagnostic meaning-from the patient perspective. DESIGN: Qualitative interview study. SETTING: Participants were recruited from a secondary care clinic in central England following referral from primary care. PARTICIPANTS: Over age 55 years with a recent (<1 year) diagnosis of heart failure confirmed by a cardiologist following initial presentation to primary care. METHODS: Semistructured interviews were carried out with 16 participants (11 men and 5 women, median age 78.5 years) in their own homes. Data were audio-recorded and transcribed. Participants were asked to describe their diagnostic journey from when they first noticed something wrong up to and including the point of diagnosis. Data were analysed using the framework method. RESULTS: Participants initially normalised symptoms and only sought medical help when daily activities were affected. Failure to realise that anything was wrong led to a delay in help-seeking. Participants' understanding of the term 'heart failure' was variable and 1 participant did not know he had the condition. The term itself caused great anxiety initially but participants learnt to cope with and accept their diagnosis over time. CONCLUSIONS: Greater public awareness of symptoms and adequate explanation of 'heart failure' as a diagnostic label, or reconsideration of its use, are potential areas of service improvement.

Current and potential providers of blood pressure self-screening: a mixed methods study in Oxfordshire.

OBJECTIVES: To (1) establish the extent of opportunities for members of the public to check their own blood pressure (BP) outside of healthcare consultations (BP self-screening), (2) investigate the reasons for and against hosting such a service and (3) ascertain how BP self-screening data are used in primary care. DESIGN: A mixed methods, cross-sectional study. SETTING: Primary care and community locations in Oxfordshire, UK. PARTICIPANTS: 325 sites were surveyed to identify where and in what form BP self-screening services were available. 23 semistructured interviews were then completed with current and potential hosts of BP self-screening services. RESULTS: 18/82 (22%) general practices offered BP self-screening and 68/110 (62%) pharmacies offered professional-led BP screening. There was no evidence of permanent BP self-screening activities in other community settings.Healthcare professionals, managers, community workers and leaders were interviewed. Those in primary care generally felt that practice-based BP self-screening was a beneficial activity that increased the attainment of performance targets although there was variation in its perceived usefulness for patient care. The pharmacists interviewed provided BP checking as a service to the community but were unable to develop self-screening services without a clear business plan. Among potential hosts, barriers to providing a BP self-screening service included a perceived lack of healthcare commissioner and public demand, and a weak-if any-link to their core objectives as an organisation. CONCLUSIONS: BP self-screening currently occurs in a minority of general practices. Any future development of community BP self-screening programmes will require (1) public promotion and (2) careful consideration of how best to support-and reward-the community hosts who currently perceive little if any benefit.

A randomised controlled trial and cost-effectiveness study of systematic screening (targeted and total population screening) versus routine practice for the detection of atrial fibrillation in people aged 65 and over. The SAFE study.

OBJECTIVES: To determine the most cost-effective method of screening for atrial fibrillation (AF) in the population aged 65 years and over, as well as its prevalence and incidence in this age group. Also to evaluate the relative cost-effectiveness of different methods of recording and interpreting the electrocardiogram (ECG) within a screening programme. DESIGN: Multicentred randomised controlled trial. Purposefully selected general practices were randomly allocated to 25 intervention practices and 25 control practices. SETTING: Fifty primary care centres across the West Midlands, UK. PARTICIPANTS: Patients aged 65 years and over. INTERVENTIONS: GPs and practice nurses in the intervention practices received education on the importance of AF detection and ECG interpretation. Patients in the intervention practices were randomly allocated to systematic (n = 5000) or opportunistic screening (n = 5000). Prospective identification of pre-existing risk factors for AF within the screened population enabled comparison between targeted screening of people at higher risk of AF and total population screening. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: AF detection rates in systematically screened and opportunistically screened populations in the intervention practices were compared with AF detection rate in 5000 patients in the control practices. The screening period was 12 months. RESULTS: Baseline prevalence of AF was 7.2%, with a higher prevalence in males (7.8%) and patients aged 75 years and over (10.3%). The control population demonstrated higher baseline prevalence (7.9%) than either the systematic (6.9%) or opportunistic (6.9%) intervention population. In the control population 47 new cases were detected (incidence 1.04% per year). In the opportunistic arm 243 patients without a baseline diagnosis of AF were found to have an irregular pulse, with 177 having an ECG, yielding 31 new cases (incidence 0.69% per year). A further 44 cases were detected outside the screening programme (overall incidence 1.64% per year). In the systematic arm 2357 patients had an ECG yielding 52 new cases (incidence 1.1% per year). Of these, 31 were detected by targeted screening and a further 21 by total population screening. A further 22 cases were detected outside the screening programme (overall incidence 1.62% per year). In terms of ECG interpretation, computerised decision support software (CDSS) gave a sensitivity of 87.3%, a specificity of 99.1% and a positive predictive value (PPV) of 89.5% compared with the gold standard (cardiologist reporting). GPs and practice nurses performed less well. The only difference in performance between intervention populations and controls was that practice nurses from the control arm performed less well than with intervention practice nurses on interpretation of limb-lead (PPV 38.8% versus 20.8%) and single-lead (PPV 37.7% versus 24.0%) ECGs. The within-trial economic evaluation results showed the lowest incremental cost to be for the opportunistic arm, with an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of 337 pounds Sterling for each additional case detected compared to the control arm. Opportunistic screening dominated both more intensive screening strategies. Model-based analyses showed small differences in cost and quality-adjusted life-years for different methods and intensities of screening, but annual opportunistic screening resulted in the lowest number of ischaemic strokes and greatest proportion of cases of AF diagnosed. Probabilistic sensitivity results indicated that there was a probability of approximately 60% that screening from the age of 65 years was cost-effective in both men and women. CONCLUSIONS: The results of the study indicated that in terms of a screening programme for atrial fibrillation in patients 65 and over, the only strategy that improved on routine practice was opportunistic screening, model-based analyses indicated that there was a probability of approximately 60% of annual opportunistic screening being cost effective. It is suggested that the following topics are worthy of further investigation: the effect of the implementation of a screening programme for AF on the uptake and maintenance of anticoagulation in patients aged 65 years and over; an evaluation of the role of CDSS in the diagnosis of cardiac arrythmias; the best method for routinely detecting paroxysmal AF; ways of improving healthcare professionals' performance in ECG interpretation; development of a robust economic model to incorporate data on new therapeutic agents for use as thromboprophylactic agents for patients with AF, and an evaluation of the relative risk of stroke for patients with incident as opposed to prevalent AF.

Performance and persistence of a blood pressure self-management intervention: telemonitoring and self-management in hypertension (TASMINH2) trial.

This study aimed to evaluate, in detail, the implementation of the self-management intervention used in the TASMINH2 trial. The intervention, comprising self-monitoring for the first week of each month and an individualised treatment self-titration schedule, was developed from a previous trial of self-management. Two hundred and sixty-three patients with poorly controlled but treated hypertension were randomised to receive this intervention and underwent training over two or three sessions. Participants were followed up for 12 months during which time process data were collected regarding the persistence and fidelity of actual behaviour compared with intervention recommendations. Two hundred and forty-one (92%) patients completed training of whom 188 (72%) self-managed their BP and completed at least 90% of expected self-monitoring measurements for the full year of the study. Overall, 268/483 (55%) of recommended medication changes were implemented. Only 25 (13%) patients had controlled BP throughout the year and so were not recommended any medication changes. Adherence to the protocol reduced over time as the number of potential changes increased. Of those self-managing throughout, 131 (70%) made at least one medication change, with 77 (41%) implementing all their recommended changes. In conclusion, self-management of hypertension was possible in practice with most participants making at least one medication change. Although adherence to the intervention reduced over time, implementation of treatment recommendations appeared better than equivalent trials using physician titration. Future self-management interventions should aim to better support patients' decision making, perhaps through enhanced use of technology.

A randomised controlled trial of patient self management of oral anticoagulation treatment compared with primary care management.

BACKGROUND: The increase in numbers of patients receiving warfarin treatment has led to the development of alternative models of service delivery for oral anticoagulant monitoring. Patient self management for oral anticoagulation is a model new to the UK. This randomised trial was the first to compare routine primary care management of oral anticoagulation with patient self management. AIM: To test whether patient self management is as safe, in terms of clinical effectiveness, as primary care management within the UK, as assessed by therapeutic international normalised ratio (INR) control. METHOD: Patients receiving warfarin from six general practices who satisfied study entry criteria were eligible to enter the study. Eligible patients were randomised to either intervention (patient self management) or control (routine primary care management) for six months. The intervention comprised two training sessions of one to two hours duration. Patients were allowed to undertake patient self management on successful completion of training. INR testing was undertaken using a Coaguchek device and regular internal/external quality control tests were performed. Patients were advised to perform INR tests every two weeks, or weekly if a dose adjustment was made. Dosage adjustment was undertaken using a simple dosing algorithm. RESULTS: Seventy eight of 206 (38%) patients were eligible for inclusion and, of these, 35 (45%) declined involvement or withdrew from the study. Altogether, 23 intervention and 26 control patients entered the study. There were no significant differences in INR control (per cent time in range: intervention, 74%; control, 77%). There were no serious adverse events in the intervention group, with one fatal retroperitoneal haemorrhage in the control group. Costs of patient self management were significantly greater than for routine care (pound 90 v pound 425/patient/year). CONCLUSION: These are the first UK data to demonstrate that patient self management is as safe as primary care management for a selected population. Further studies are needed to elucidate whether this model of care is suitable for a larger population.