Predicting Inflammatory Arthritis in At-Risk Persons: Development of Scores for Risk Stratification.

BACKGROUND: Inflammatory arthritis (IA) is an immune-related condition defined by the presence of clinical synovitis. Its most common form is rheumatoid arthritis. OBJECTIVE: To develop scores for predicting IA in at-risk persons using multidimensional biomarkers. DESIGN: Prospective observational cohort study. SETTING: Single-center, Leeds, United Kingdom. PARTICIPANTS: Persons with new musculoskeletal symptoms, a positive test result for anticitrullinated protein antibodies, and no clinical synovitis and followed for 48 weeks or more or until IA occurred. MEASUREMENTS: A simple score was developed using logistic regression, and a comprehensive score was developed using the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator Cox proportional hazards regression. Internal validation with bootstrapping was estimated, and a decision curve analysis was done. RESULTS: Of 455 participants, 32.5% (148 of 455) developed IA, and 15.4% (70 of 455) developed it within 1 year. The simple score identified 249 low-risk participants with a false negative rate of 5% (and 206 high-risk participants with a false-positive rate of 72%). The comprehensive score identified 119 high-risk participants with a false-positive rate of 29% (and 336 low-risk participants with a false-negative rate of 19%); 40% of high-risk participants developed IA within 1 year and 71% within 5 years. LIMITATIONS: External validation is required. Recruitment occurred over 13 years, with lower rates of IA in later years. There was geographic variation in laboratory testing and recruitment availability. CONCLUSION: The simple score identified persons at low risk for IA who were less likely to need secondary care. The comprehensive score identified high-risk persons who could benefit from risk stratification and preventive measures. Both scores may be useful in clinical care and should also be useful in clinical trials. PRIMARY FUNDING SOURCE: National Institute for Health and Care Research Leeds Biomedical Research Centre.

B-cell capacity for expansion and differentiation into plasma cells are altered in osteoarthritis.

OBJECTIVE: Autoantibody (autoAbs) production in osteoarthritis (OA), coupled with evidence of disturbed B-cell homoeostasis, suggest a potential role for B-cells in OA. B-cells can differentiate with T-cell help (T-dep) or using alternative Toll like recptor (TLR) co-stimulation (TLR-dep). We analysed the capacity for differentiation of B-cells in OA versus age-matched healthy controls (HCs) and compared the capacity of OA synovitis-derived stromal cells to provide support for plasma cell (PC) maturation. METHODS: B-cells were isolated from OA and HC. Standardised in vitro models of B-cell differentiation were used comparing T-dep (CD40 (cluster of differentiation-40/BCR (B-cell receptor)-ligation) versus TLR-dep (TLR7/BCR-activation). Differentiation marker expression was analysed by flow-cytometry; antibody secretion (immunnoglobulins IgM/IgA/IgG) by ELISA (enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay), gene expression by qPCR (quantitative polymerase chain reaction). RESULTS: Compared to HC, circulating OA B-cells showed an overall more mature phenotype. The gene expression profile of synovial OA B-cells resembled that of PCs. Circulating B-cells differentiated under both TLR-dep and T-dep, however OA B-cells executed differentiation faster in terms of change in surface marker and secreted more antibody at Day 6, while resulting in similar PC numbers at Day 13, with an altered phenotype at Day 13 in OA. The main difference was reduced early B-cells expansion in OA (notably in TLR-dep) and reduced cell death. Stromal cells support from OA-synovitis allowed better PC survival compared to bone marrow, with an additional population of cells and higher Ig-secretion. CONCLUSION: Our findings suggest that OA B-cells present an altered capacity for proliferation and differentiation while remaining able to produce antibodies, notably in synovium. These findings may partly contribute to autoAbs development as recently observed in OA synovial fluids.

Lymphocyte subset phenotyping for the prediction of progression to inflammatory arthritis in anti-citrullinated-peptide antibody-positive at-risk individuals.

OBJECTIVES: Inflammatory arthritis (IA) is considered the last stage of a disease continuum, where features of systemic autoimmunity can appear years before clinical synovitis. Time to progression to IA varies considerably between at-risk individuals, therefore the identification of biomarkers predictive of progression is of major importance. We previously reported on the value of three CD4+T-cell subsets as biomarkers of progression. Here, we aim to establish the value of 18 lymphocyte subsets (LS) for predicting progression to IA. METHODS: Participants were recruited based on a new musculoskeletal complaint and being positive for anti-citrullinated-peptide Antibody. Progression (over 10 years) was defined as the development of clinical synovitis. LS analysis was performed for lymphocyte lineages, naïve/memory subsets, inflammation-related cells (IRC), and regulatory cells (Treg/B-reg). Modelling used Logistic/Cox regressions. RESULTS: Of 210 patients included, 93 (44%) progressed to IA, 41/93 (44%) within 12 months (rapid progressors). 5/18 LS were associated with progression (Treg/CD4-naïve/IRC (adjusted p < 0.0001), CD8 (p = 0.021), B-reg (p = 0.015)) and 3 trends (NK-cells/memory-B-cells/plasmablasts).Unsupervised hierarchical clustering using these 8 subsets segregated 3 clusters of patients, one cluster being enriched (63/109(58%)) and one poor (10/45(22%)) in progressors.Combining all clinical and LS variables, forward logistic regression predicted progression with accuracy=85.7% and AUC=0.911, selecting smoking/Rheumatoid-Factor/HLA-Shared-Epitope/Tender-Joint-Count-78 and Treg/CD4-naive/CD8/NK-cells/B-reg/plasmablasts.To predict rapid progression, a Cox regression was performed resulting in a model combining smoking/rheumatoid factor and IRC/CD4-naïve/Treg/NK-cells/CD8+T-cells (AUC=0.794). CONCLUSION: Overall, progression was predicted by specific LS, suggesting potential triggers for events leading to the development of IA, while rapid progression was associated with a different set of subsets.

Can biomarkers predict successful tapering of conventional disease-modifying therapy in rheumatoid arthritis patients in stable remission?

OBJECTIVES: Specific guidelines for managing RA patients in clinical remission for ≥6 months on cs-DMARDs are lacking. Tapering of treatment is encouraged, however, without validated biomarkers for success. We aimed to assess the rate of sustained remission after 12 months in patients who either (i) followed structured cs-DMARD tapering or (ii) continued therapy, focusing on the added value of biomarkers as predictors of outcome. METHODS: RA patients fulfilling 3v-DAS28CRP<2.6 for ≥6 months on stable cs-DMARD therapy were included. Patients were offered structured tapering, with 117 accepting tapering and 83 continuing therapy. Clinical, ultrasound, immunological (T-cell subsets) and patient-reported outcome (PRO) data were collected. The primary endpoint was the proportion of patients in sustained remission without relapse after 12 months. Regression analyses were used to identify predictors of sustained remission. RESULTS: Of those who tapered, 64% remained in clinical remission after 12 months compared with 80% (p=0.018) of patients on stable treatment. In the tapering group, higher levels of CRP, TJC, % inflammation-related T-cell (IRC) and PROs were associated with flare (all p<0.05), with a trend for total PD (p=0.066). A model predicting sustained remission retained RAQoL, total PD and IRC (85% accuracy, AUROC=0.893, p<0.0001). In the non-tapering group, higher CRP, ESR, SJC and shorter disease duration (all p<0.05) were associated with flare, with no parameter able to predict sustained remission. CONCLUSIONS: In the tapering group, the combination of clinical, PRO, US and T-cell parameters demonstrated added value for predicting sustained remission compared with clinical parameters alone. These data may inform best tapering practice.

Association of circulating lymphocyte subsets with response to IL17i and TNFi in axial spondyloarthritis.

OBJECTIVES: Biologic disease-modifying anti-rheumatic drugs (b-DMARDs) have qualitatively improved the management of axial spondyloarthritis (axSpA), but up to 30-40% of patients do not respond. Although lymphocytes are clearly implicated in the pathology of SpA, circulating lymphocyte subsets (LS) dynamics has been poorly studied. The objective of this pilot study was to comprehensively analyse circulating LS abnormalities in axSpA, and to determine their potential association with response to b-DMARDs. METHODS: Sixty-nine patients with axSpA and 141 control subjects (HC) were included. The clinical features were measured at baseline, and additionally at 6 months in a subgroup of patients who received TNFi (n=36) or IL17i (n=26). Clinical response was defined as a 50% reduction of BASDAI or decrease in ASDAS of 1.1 point. CD4/CD8 T-cells, B-cells and NK-cells and their subsets were analysed by flow cytometry at inclusion. RESULTS: At baseline, alterations in LS were observed in axSpA with reduced/increased frequencies of 10/27 subsets (p<0.003 after correction) and trends for another 5. There was no association of response to bDMARDs with clinical data. Response to IL17i (61% cases) was associated with a higher frequency of NK-cells (p=0.003), trends for change in naïve/memory-CD8+T-cells (p<0.055) and increased expression of KIR3DL2 on Th17-cells (p=0.052). No LS was associated with response to TNFi (69% cases) although trends were observed (CD4+T-cells subsets, higher IL-6R on CD4+/CD8+T-cells). CONCLUSIONS: This pilot work demonstrated a dysregulation of LS in axSpA. The association observed between several LS and clinical response to IL17i (NK/CD8 subsets/Th17-KIR3DL2) was very different to that observed for TNFi (CD4/IL-6R).

Interferon-related gene expression in response to TNF inhibitor treatment in ankylosing spondylitis patients: a pilot study.

OBJECTIVE: Ankylosing spondylitis (AS) is a chronic inflammatory arthritis primarily affecting the spine and sacroiliac joints. TNF inhibitor (TNFi) drugs are recommended for patients not responding to NSAIDs; however, there is a significant need for biomarkers of response. IFN-regulated genes (IRGs) and other cytokines/chemokines are linked to autoimmune diseases and have been associated with treatment response. Our objective was to explore whether IRGs and cytokines/chemokines can be associated with response to TNFiagents in AS. METHODS: Peripheral blood mononuclear cells were obtained from 26 AS patients who were to receive a TNFi (I, n = 15) or placebo (P, n = 11) at week 0 and week 22. Response (R)/non-response (NR) was defined as reduction in ASDAS ≥ 1.2 points or reduction in sacroiliac/vertebral MRI lesions. The expression of 96 genes was quantified using TaqMan assays. Finally, ELISA was used to measure IL-6 in serum samples from another 38 AS patients. RESULTS: Analysis of gene expression in 26 baseline samples segregated patients into four groups defined by a signature of 15 genes (mainly IRGs). ASDAS response was associated with one group independently of treatment received. We then analysed response to the TNFi (n = 15) and identified a 12-gene signature associated with MRI response. A third IRG signature was also associated with a reduction in IRGs expression post-TNFi samples (n = 10 pairs). Finally, decreased circulating IL-6 was associated with BASDAI-R. CONCLUSION: This pilot study suggests an association between IRG expression and response to TNFi in AS. These findings require validation in a larger cohort in order to construct predictive algorithms for patient stratification.

Anti-carbamylated protein antibodies: are they useful for the diagnosis of rheumatoid arthritis?

OBJECTIVES: ACR/EULAR-2010 classification criteria for rheumatoid arthritis (RA) rely heavily on the presence of anti-citrullinated peptide antibody (ACPA). The role of anti-carbamylated protein antibodies (anti-CarP) in this context is uncertain. We aimed to investigate the value of anti-CarP for RA classification in patients with early inflammatory arthritis. METHODS: Patients (n=402) were recruited from an early arthritis clinic and followed for 24 months. Healthy controls (n=95) were included. An anti-CarP ELISA was performed (aU/mL). Statistical analysis used regression and AUC analysis. RESULTS: The criteria for RA were met by 195/402 patients at inclusion; 28 developed RA during follow-up and 179 had other diagnosis (non-RA). 97/195 (49%) RA patients were anti-CarP+ (median 250 uA/mL [IQR 25-762]). In the group that progressed to RA, 7/28 (25%) were positive (82 uA/mL [13-235]) compared to non-RA (p=0.001) with 13/179 (7%) positive (26 uA/mL [5-80]). Being anti-CarP+ alone was observed in 17 patients of whom 7 (41%) were RA. Levels/positivity were not associated with other parameters. Anti-CarP+ had an odds ratio (OR) 6.5 for predicting RA (OR=17.1 for ACPA+ and OR=2.5 for RF+). In ACPA- patients, anti-CarP+ was also predictive of RA (OR=2.39). Being ACPA+/anti-CarP+/RF+ had a high predictive value for RA (OR=29.9 sensitivity/specificity (sen/spe) 33%/99%, positive/negative predictive values (ppv/npv) 97%/54%), however, being ACPA+/anti-CarP+ was superior (OR=36.1 sen/spe=41%/99%, ppv/npv=98%/57%) while being ACPA+/RF+ was inferior (OR=11.9, sen/spe=54%/95%, ppv/npv=94%/62%). CONCLUSIONS: For RA classification, anti-CarP+ was less sensitive than ACPA, but more specific than RF. Anti-CarP+ may prove useful, classifying early arthritis patients, notably ACPA- patients.

Interleukin-7: a potential factor supporting B-cell maturation in the rheumatoid arthritis synovium.

OBJECTIVES: The exact function of interleukin-7 (IL-7) in autoimmune diseases remains unclear although it is a recognised therapeutic target for cytokine blockade. Our objective was to investigate the regulation and downstream effect of IL-7 in diseased tissue from rheumatoid arthritis (RA) patients notably with respect to its function as bone turnover regulator and tissue architecture (TA) organiser. METHODS: Synovial tissues (fresh, frozen or xed) were obtained from our tissue bank and distributed between experiments for live cell cultures, histology, immunohistochemistry or gene expression array by qPCR. RESULTS: IL-7 expression in synoviocyte cultures was up-regulated by pro-in ammatory cytokines, notably IL-6. Gene expression pro ling segregated synovial biopsies based on the presence of B/plasma cells and ectopic TA. IL-7 gene expression was associated with that of several genes whose function was to support B-cell maturation in tissue with distinct B-cell aggregates (despite the lack of IL-7-Receptor expression on B-cells) as well as with ectopic germinal-like centres. IL-7 was associated with bone turnover regulation in biopsies with diffuse in ltration. A novel relationship between the IL-7 and IL-6 axis was also highlighted in human tissue. CONCLUSIONS: Overall, IL-7 may contribute to the maintenance of the pro-in ammatory cycle perpetuating in ammation in RA synovium. We therefore propose a novel role for IL-7 as an orchestrator of TA with an impact on B-cell maturation in relation with IL-6.

Receptor activator of nuclear factor kappa-Β ligand (RANKL) serum levels are associated with progression to seropositive/negative rheumatoid arthritis.

OBJECTIVES: The aim of this study was to establish whether serum RANKL levels in early inflammatory arthritis (IA) were associated with rheumatoid arthritis (RA) diagnosis at follow-up, and to evaluate the added value of RANKL for RA diagnosis. METHODS: Serum from 298 patients was collected. Demographic and clinical (swollen/tender joint counts, CRP, DAS28-CRP, RF, ACPA and shared-epitope data were recorded. Baseline ultrasound of 26 joints was performed, including total power Doppler (PD). An ELISA was used to measure RANKL. Predictors of progression were identified using multivariable logistic regression analysis. Area under the receiver operating characteristics (AUROC) was used to assess the performance of the prediction models and quantify the added value of RANKL in RA diagnosis. RESULTS: 151 patients developed RA and 147 were non-RA (undifferentiated IA, other inflammatory diagnoses or non-persistent inflammation). RANKL levels were significantly higher in RA (median [IQR]: 474.1 [270.8-1430.6]) than in non-RA (median [IQR]: 301.0 [174.1-477.5]. Three clinical factors (age, SJC and PD) were identified by multivariable logistic regression with model performance AUROC of 77.9% (95% CI 72.1-83.8%). Adding RANKL resulted in a relative increase of 6.5% in the model classification performance of an AUROC of 83.0% (95% CI 77.9-88.1%). In ACPA-negative patients, the model performance increased from 77.6% (95% CI 69.5-85.7%) with clinical data only to 81.9% (95% CI 73.7-89.8%) with added value of RANKL and imaging. CONCLUSIONS: RANKL levels can predict RA diagnosis over clinical biomarkers alone, both seropositive and particularly in seronegative IA patients.

Biomarkers of Joint Damage in Osteoarthritis: Current Status and Future Directions.

Osteoarthritis (OA) is a disease of the whole joint organ, characterized by the loss of cartilage, and structural changes in bone including the formation of osteophytes, causing disability and loss of function. It is also associated with systemic mediators and low-grade inflammation. Currently, there is negligible/no availability of specific biomarkers that can be used to facilitate the diagnosis and treatment of OA. The most unmet clinical need is, however, related to the monitoring of disease progression over a short period that can be used in clinical trials. In this review, the value of biomarkers identified over the past decade has been highlighted. These biomarkers are associated with the synthesis and breakdown of cartilage, including collagenous and noncollagenous biomarkers, inflammatory and anti-inflammatory biomarkers, expressed in the biological fluid such as serum, synovial fluid, and urine. Broad validation of novel and clinically applicable biomarkers and their involvement in the pathways are particularly needed for early-stage diagnosis, monitoring disease progression, and severity and examining new drugs to mitigate the effects of this highly prevalent and debilitating condition.

Defining remission in rheumatoid arthritis: does it matter to the patient? A comparison of multi-dimensional remission criteria and patient reported outcomes.

OBJECTIVES: In a cross-sectional study, we evaluated the prevalence of 'multi-dimensional remission' (MDR) and its component parameters, assessed using objective measures in a cohort of RA patients in treatment-induced DAS28-remission, and their relationship with patient-reported outcome measures. We sought to confirm the feasibility and face validity of the MDR construct, providing a platform for future longitudinal studies in which its clinical utility might be further established. METHODS: 605 patients were selected from an inflammatory arthritis register using DAS28(CRP)<2.6. Demographic, clinical and patients reported outcomes (PRO) data were collected. Ultrasound power doppler synovitis (n = 364) and T-cell subsets (n = 297) were also measured. Remission using clinical parameters was defined as: tender and swollen joint count (TJC/SJC) and CRP all ⩽1; ultrasound remission: total power doppler = 0 and T cell remission: positive normalized naïve T-cell frequency. MDR was defined as the achievement of all three dimensions. RESULTS: Overall, only 53% (321/605) of the patients achieved clinical parameters, failures being mainly due to raised CRP (52%), TJC (28)>1 (37%) or SJC (28)>1 (16%). 211/364 (58%) of patients achieved ultrasound remission and 193/297 (65%) patients showed T-cell remission. Complete data were available for 231 patients. MDR was observed in only 35% and was associated with the best (lower) PRO scores (all P ⩽ 0.05 vs non-MDR) when compared with the other definitions of remission assessed. The MDR rate was similar in early and established RA patients on b-DMARDs; however, it was lower in established RA patients who received multiple cs-DMARDs (P = 0.011). CONCLUSIONS: In this study, MDR, which may represent a state closer to normality, was found to occur in about a third of DAS28-remission patients and was associated with better patient-reported outcome measures. MDR could be a novel optimal treatment target, notably from a patient's perspective. The relevance of these findings needs further assessment.

Quantifying circulating Th17 cells by qPCR: potential as diagnostic biomarker for rheumatoid arthritis.

OBJECTIVE: The diagnosis of RA patients remains a challenge, especially in ACPA-negative disease. Novel T-cell subsets, particularly Th17 may be useful, although data on Th17 frequency using flow cytometry in RA are conflicting. We investigated whether a novel epigenetic qPCR assay for the quantification of Th17 could differentiate patients with RA from those with symptoms evolving towards an alternative diagnosis. METHODS: We used a qPCR assay measuring the extent of the methylation at a key position in the IL-17 and CD4 genes. Assays were performed on whole blood from 49 healthy controls (HC) and 165 early arthritis clinic patients. Flow cytometry was further used to detect the expression of CXCR4 on Th17 cells. RESULTS: In 75 inflammatory arthritis patients who progressed to RA, the qPCR assays showed significantly fewer Th17 cells compared with 90 patients who did not (P<0.0001). Regression models demonstrated a high predictive value for RA development (75.8% correct prediction), and particularly for the ACPA-negative group (n = 125) where Th17 and swollen joint count (SJC) were the only predictors (73% correct prediction). The chemokine receptor CXCR4 had significantly higher expression on Th17 from early RA patients (n = 11) compared with HC (n = 15). CONCLUSION: The results of the epigenetic qPCR assay showed that low levels of Th17 cells were predictive of developing RA, particularly in the ACPA-negative patients. This could have value for insights into pathogenesis and management. The results suggest the recruitment of Th17 to the inflammatory disease site, consistent with high CXCR4 expression.

Serum IL-7 as diagnostic biomarker for rheumatoid arthritis, validation with EULAR 2010 classification criteria.

OBJECTIVES: Despite the well-established value of currently used classification criteria for the early diagnosis of rheumatoid arthritis (RA) there is a constant demand for novel biomarkers notably in autoantibody-negative patients. Interleukin 7 (IL-7) has been reported as a candidate diagnostic biomarker based on ACR-1987 criteria. However, clinical practice has moved to using the EULAR 2010 classification criteria. Therefore, to advance the use of IL-7 alongside the RA biomarker pipeline, we repeated the original study in a new cohort. METHODS: 255 patients were recruited. IL-7 was quantified by ELISA. Univariate and regression analyses were used to model RA diagnosis. RESULTS: 123 patients were diagnosed with RA (EULAR 2010) while 132 were classified as non-RA. In univariate analysis, RA was associated with autoantibodies and SE-positivity, higher joint counts, DAS28 (all p<0.001) and CRP (p=0.024). IL-7 was lower in RA (p=0.05). Logistic regression analysis in 227 patients with complete data set confirmed IL-7 was the second best predictive marker (p=0.035) following SJC (p=0.007) with good model fit (AUROC=0.889). A second model investigated 147 ACPA-negative patients: lower IL7 was the second best predictive marker (p=0.075) behind SJC (p=0.013). CONCLUSIONS: This study validates our previous results from a UK cohort using EULAR 2010 criteria although the predictive power associated with IL-7 is lower than in the study using ACR 1987 criteria (both French/UK cohorts). IL-7 remains a potential biomarker for ACPA-negative RA although further validation with larger numbers of ACPA-negative patients is still needed notably to translate these results into clinical applicability.

Abatacept or tocilizumab after rituximab in rheumatoid arthritis? An exploratory study suggests non-response to rituximab is associated with persistently high IL-6 and better clinical response to IL-6 blocking therapy.

OBJECTIVES: To evaluate the efficacy and safety of two different targeted approaches-abatacept or tocilizumab-after rituximab therapy in rheumatoid arthritis, and to explain observed difference in efficacy using blood and synovial studies of interleukin 6 (IL-6) and B cells in patients receiving rituximab therapy. METHODS: Consecutive series of patients who had discontinued rituximab therapy owing to inefficacy or toxicity were treated with abatacept (n=16) or tocilizumab (n=35). Clinical response and reasons for discontinuation were evaluated. Serial blood and synovial samples were obtained from a group of 57 and 25 rituximab-treated patients, respectively, and were analysed for B cells and IL-6 using flow cytometry, immunohistochemistry and quantitative real-time PCR. RESULTS: In the abatacept group, mean (SEM) Disease Activity Score in 28 joints calculated using the erythrocyte sedimentation rate (DAS28-ESR) reduced from 5.69 (0.42) at baseline to 4.94 (0.44) at 6 months (p=0.12). In the tocilizumab group: mean (SEM) DAS28- ESR reduced from 5.75 (0.21) at baseline to 3.28 (0.26) at 6 months (p<0.001). This was paralleled by a significant swollen joint count reduction in the tocilizumab (5.47 (0.70) to 2.70 (0.61), p=0.033), but not abatacept (6.23 (1.3) to 4.15 (1.2), p=0.26), group. In the synovium, despite complete depletion of B cells in 19/22 patients, IL-6 mRNA expression was not significantly reduced after rituximab. Blood B cell numbers remained low 12 months after rituximab. Serum IL-6 was raised at baseline and significantly higher in rituximab clinical non-responders (p=0.035) than responders. A significant reduction in serum IL-6 was seen in rituximab clinical responders (p=0.005) but not in non-responders (p=0.237). CONCLUSION: In patients with rheumatoid arthritis for whom rituximab therapy failed despite adequate B cell depletion, IL-6-directed therapy might be a more logical and effective treatment choice than T cell costimulation blockade. Further controlled studies investigating other possible mechanisms are needed to validate these initial findings.

An immunological biomarker to predict MTX response in early RA.

OBJECTIVES: The therapeutic goal for patients with rheumatoid arthritis (RA) is clinical remission. This is best achieved by early diagnosis and appropriate therapeutic intervention. RA is associated with dysregulation of T-cell subsets (naïve, regulatory (Treg) and inflammation-related cells (IRC)) early in the disease. Our aim was to test the hypothesis that T-cell subset quantification can predict the achievement of clinical remission with early treatment in RA. METHODS: T-cell subsets were quantified in 108 drug-naïve, early RA patients commencing methotrexate (MTX) or MTX+antitumor necrosis factor (anti-TNF) and in 105 healthy controls (HC). The primary outcome assessed was remission (DAS28<2.6). A pilot study used frozen cells (38 patients and 35 HCs, see online supplementary material) and was validated with fresh blood (70 patients and 70 HCs). RESULTS: Immune dysregulation in early RA was confirmed with an association between age and reduced naïve cells compared with HCs (p=0.006), a lower age-adjusted Treg and higher IRC frequency (p=0.001). Anticitrullinated peptide antibody (ACPA) positivity was associated with lower naïve (p=0.031) and Treg frequencies (p=0.039). In 50 patients treated with MTX, ACPA/age-adjusted analysis demonstrated that higher naïve cell frequency (relative to HC) was associated with remission (OR 5.90 (1.66 to 20.98), p=0.006, sensitivity/specificity 62%/79%, Positive Predictive Value (PPV)/Negative Predictive Value (NPV) 66%/76%). Remission with MTX+anti-TNF (n=20) was not found to be associated with naïve cell frequency, and for patients with reduced naïve cells the remission rate increased from 24% (MTX) to 42% (MTX+anti-TNF). CONCLUSIONS: Baseline T-cell subset analysis has a value in predicting early RA remission with first therapy with MTX. Immunological analysis could be used in conjunction with clinical/serological features to predict response to MTX and help select the most appropriate therapy at disease presentation.

TLR dependent XBP-1 activation induces an autocrine loop in rheumatoid arthritis synoviocytes.

X-box binding protein 1 (XBP1) is a central regulator of the endoplasmic reticulum (ER) stress response. It is induced via activation of the IRE1 stress sensor as part of the unfolded protein response (UPR) and has been implicated in several diseases processes. XBP1 can also be activated in direct response to Toll-like receptor (TLR) ligation independently of the UPR but the pathogenic significance of this mode of XBP1 activation is not well understood. Here we show that TLR-dependent XBP1 activation is operative in the synovial fibroblasts (SF) of patients with active rheumatoid arthritis (RA). We investigated the expression of ER stress response genes in patients with active RA and also in patients in remission. The active (spliced) form of (s)XBP1 was significantly overexpressed in the active RA group compared to healthy controls and patients in remission. Paradoxically, expression of nine other ER stress response genes was reduced in active RA compared to patients in remission, suggestive of a UPR-independent process. However, sXBP1 was induced in SF by TLR4 and TLR2 stimulation, resulting in sXBP1-dependent interleukin-6 and tumour necrosis factor (TNF) production. We also show that TNF itself induces sXBP1 in SF, thus generating a potential feedback loop for sustained SF activation. These data confirm the first link between TLR-dependent XBP1 activation and human inflammatory disease. sXBP1 appears to play a central role in this process by providing a convergence point for two different stimuli to maintain activation of SF.

Autoantibodies to posttranslationally modified type II collagen as potential biomarkers for rheumatoid arthritis.

OBJECTIVE: Type II collagen (CII) posttranslationally modified by reactive oxygen species (ROS-CII) that are present in the inflamed joint is an autoantigen in rheumatoid arthritis (RA). The aim of this study was to investigate the potential use of anti-ROS-CII autoantibodies as a biomarker of RA. METHODS: CII was exposed to oxidants that are present in the rheumatoid joint. Autoreactivity to ROS-CII was assessed by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assays in synovial fluid (SF) and serum samples obtained from patients during various phases of RA. This group included disease-modifying antirheumatic drug (DMARD)-naive patients with early RA (n = 85 serum samples) and patients with established RA (n = 80 serum and 50 SF samples), who were categorized as either DMARD responders or DMARD nonresponders. Control subjects included anti-citrullinated protein antibody (ACPA)-positive patients with arthralgia (n = 58 serum samples), patients with osteoarthritis (OA; n = 49 serum and 52 SF samples), and healthy individuals (n = 51 serum samples). RESULTS: Reactivity to ROS-CII among DMARD-naive patients with early RA was significantly higher than that among patients with ACPA-positive arthralgia, patients with OA, and healthy control subjects (P < 0.0001), with 92.9% of serum samples from the patients with early RA binding to anti-ROS-II. There was no significant difference in anti-ROS-CII reactivity between ACPA-positive and ACPA-negative patients with RA, with 93.8% and 91.6% of serum samples, respectively, binding to ROS-CII. The sensitivity and specificity of binding to ROS-CII in patients with early RA were 92% and 98%, respectively. Among patients with established RA, serum reactivity in DMARD nonresponders was significantly higher than that in DMARD responders (P < 0.01); 58.3% of serum samples from nonresponders and 7.6% of serum samples from responders bound to HOCl-ROS, while the respective values for SF were 70% and 60%. In patients with longstanding RA, autoreactivity to ROS-CII changed longitudinally. CONCLUSION: Autoantibodies to ROS-CII have the potential to become diagnostic biomarkers of RA.

Cytokines as biomarkers in rheumatoid arthritis.

RA is a complex disease that develops as a series of events often referred to as disease continuum. RA would benefit from novel biomarker development for diagnosis where new biomarkers are still needed (even if progresses have been made with the inclusion of ACPA into the ACR/EULAR 2010 diagnostic criteria) and for prognostic notably in at risk of evolution patients with autoantibody-positive arthralgia. Risk biomarkers for rapid evolution or cardiovascular complications are also highly desirable. Monitoring biomarkers would be useful in predicting relapse. Finally, predictive biomarkers for therapy outcome would allow tailoring therapy to the individual. Increasing numbers of cytokines have been involved in RA pathology. Many have the potential as biomarkers in RA especially as their clinical utility is already established in other diseases and could be easily transferable to rheumatology. We will review the current knowledge's relation to cytokine used as biomarker in RA. However, given the complexity and heterogeneous nature of RA, it is unlikely that a single cytokine may provide sufficient discrimination; therefore multiple biomarker signatures may represent more realistic approach for the future of personalised medicine in RA.

Autoantibodies to posttranslational modifications in rheumatoid arthritis.

Autoantibodies have been associated with human pathologies for a long time, particularly with autoimmune diseases (AIDs). Rheumatoid factor (RF) is known since the late 1930s to be associated with rheumatoid arthritis (RA). The discovery of anticitrullinated protein antibodies in the last century has changed this and other posttranslational modifications (PTM) relevant to RA have since been described. Such PTM introduce neoepitopes in proteins that can generate novel autoantibody specificities. The recent recognition of these novel specificities in RA provides a unique opportunity to understand human B-cell development in vivo. In this paper, we will review the three of the main classes of PTMs already associated with RA: citrullination, carbamylation, and oxidation. With the advancement of research methodologies it should be expected that other autoantibodies against PTM proteins could be discovered in patients with autoimmune diseases. Many of such autoantibodies may provide significant biomarker potential.

Predicting Flare in Patients With Rheumatoid Arthritis in Biologic Induced Remission, on Tapering, and on Stable Therapy.

OBJECTIVE: The tapering of biologic disease-modifying antirheumatic drug (b-DMARD) therapy for patients with rheumatoid arthritis (RA) in stable remission is frequently undertaken, but specific guidance on how to successfully taper is lacking. The objective of this study is to identify predictors of flare in patients in stable b-DMARD-induced clinical remission, who did or did not follow structured b-DMARD tapering. METHODS: Patients with RA receiving b-DMARD treatment who had achieved sustained remission according to a Disease Activity Score in 28 joints using the C-reactive protein level (DAS28-CRP) <2.6 for ≥6 months were offered tapering. Clinical, ultrasound (US) (total power Doppler [PD]/grayscale abnormalities), CD4+ T cell subsets, and patient-reported outcomes (PROs) were collected at inclusion. The primary endpoint was the occurrence of flare (loss of DAS28-CRP remission) over 12 months. Logistic regression analyses identified predictors of flare. Dichotomization into high/low-risk groups was based on 80% specificity using the area under the receiving operator curve (AUROC). RESULTS: Of 63 patients choosing tapering, 23 (37%) flared compared with 12 of 60 (20%) on stable treatment (P = 0.043). All patients who flared regained remission upon reinstating treatment. In the tapering group, flare was associated with lower regulatory T cell (Treg) (P < 0.0001) and higher CRP levels (P < 0.0001), erythrocyte sedimentation rate (P < 0.035), and inflammation-related cells (IRCs) (P = 0.054); stepwise modeling selected Tregs (odds ratio [OR] = 0.350, P = 0.004), IRCs (OR = 1.871, P = 0.007), and CRP level (OR = 1.577, P = 0.004) with 81.7% accuracy and AUROC = 0.890. In the continued therapy group, modeling retained the tender joint count, total PD, and visual analog scale pain score, with 82.1% accuracy and AUROC = 0.899. Most patients in the study were considered low risk of flare (80 of 123 patients [65%]). Only 5 of 37 (13.5%) of the low-risk patients who tapered flared, which was notable compared with the continued therapy group (20% flare). CONCLUSION: Flare on tapering b-DMARDs was predicted by lower Tregs and elevated inflammation biomarkers (IRCs/CRP level); flare on continued b-DMARDs was associated with raised pain parameters and US inflammation. Knowledge of these biomarkers should improve outcomes by targeted selection for tapering, and by increased monitoring of those on continued therapy predicted to flare.