Global Effect of Modifiable Risk Factors on Cardiovascular Disease and Mortality.

BACKGROUND: Five modifiable risk factors are associated with cardiovascular disease and death from any cause. Studies using individual-level data to evaluate the regional and sex-specific prevalence of the risk factors and their effect on these outcomes are lacking. METHODS: We pooled and harmonized individual-level data from 112 cohort studies conducted in 34 countries and 8 geographic regions participating in the Global Cardiovascular Risk Consortium. We examined associations between the risk factors (body-mass index, systolic blood pressure, non-high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, current smoking, and diabetes) and incident cardiovascular disease and death from any cause using Cox regression analyses, stratified according to geographic region, age, and sex. Population-attributable fractions were estimated for the 10-year incidence of cardiovascular disease and 10-year all-cause mortality. RESULTS: Among 1,518,028 participants (54.1% of whom were women) with a median age of 54.4 years, regional variations in the prevalence of the five modifiable risk factors were noted. Incident cardiovascular disease occurred in 80,596 participants during a median follow-up of 7.3 years (maximum, 47.3), and 177,369 participants died during a median follow-up of 8.7 years (maximum, 47.6). For all five risk factors combined, the aggregate global population-attributable fraction of the 10-year incidence of cardiovascular disease was 57.2% (95% confidence interval [CI], 52.4 to 62.1) among women and 52.6% (95% CI, 49.0 to 56.1) among men, and the corresponding values for 10-year all-cause mortality were 22.2% (95% CI, 16.8 to 27.5) and 19.1% (95% CI, 14.6 to 23.6). CONCLUSIONS: Harmonized individual-level data from a global cohort showed that 57.2% and 52.6% of cases of incident cardiovascular disease among women and men, respectively, and 22.2% and 19.1% of deaths from any cause among women and men, respectively, may be attributable to five modifiable risk factors. (Funded by the German Center for Cardiovascular Research (DZHK); ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT05466825.).

One-carbon metabolism biomarkers and upper gastrointestinal cancer in the Golestan Cohort Study.

Incidence of esophageal and gastric cancer has been linked to low B-vitamin status. We conducted matched nested case-control studies of incident esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC; 340 case-control pairs) and gastric cancer (GC; 352 case-control pairs) within the Golestan Cohort Study. The primary exposure was plasma biomarkers: riboflavin and flavin mononucleotide (FMN) (vitamin B2), pyridoxal phosphate (PLP) (B6), cobalamin (B12), para-aminobenzoylglutamate (pABG) (folate), and total homocysteine (tHcy); and indicators for deficiency: 3-hydroxykyurenine-ratio (HK-r for vitamin B6) and methylmalonic acid (MMA for B12). We estimated odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) using conditional logistic regression adjusting for matching factors and potential confounders. High proportions of participants had low B-vitamin and high tHcy levels. None of the measured vitamin B levels was associated with the risk of ESCC and GC, but elevated level of MMA was marginally associated with ESCC (OR = 1.42, 95% CI = 0.99-2.04) and associated with GC (OR = 1.53, 95% CI = 1.05-2.22). Risk of GC was higher for the highest versus lowest quartile of HK-r (OR = 1.95, 95%CI = 1.19-3.21) and for elevated versus non-elevated HK-r level (OR = 1.59, 95% CI = 1.13-2.25). Risk of ESCC (OR = 2.81, 95% CI = 1.54-5.13) and gastric cancer (OR = 2.09, 95%CI = 1.17-3.73) was higher for the highest versus lowest quartile of tHcy. In conclusion, insufficient vitamin B12 was associated with higher risk of ESCC and GC, and insufficient vitamin B6 status was associated with higher risk of GC in this population with prevalent low plasma B-vitamin status. Higher level of tHcy, a global indicator of OCM function, was associated with higher risk of ESCC and GC.

The protective effect of dietary folate intake on gastric cancer is modified by alcohol consumption: A pooled analysis of the StoP Consortium.

Dietary folate intake has been identified as a potentially modifiable factor of gastric cancer (GC) risk, although the evidence is still inconsistent. We evaluate the association between dietary folate intake and the risk of GC as well as the potential modification effect of alcohol consumption. We pooled data for 2829 histologically confirmed GC cases and 8141 controls from 11 case-control studies from the international Stomach Cancer Pooling Consortium. Dietary folate intake was estimated using food frequency questionnaires. We used linear mixed models with random intercepts for each study to calculate adjusted odds ratios (OR) and 95% confidence interval (CI). Higher folate intake was associated with a lower risk of GC, although this association was not observed among participants who consumed >2.0 alcoholic drinks/day. The OR for the highest quartile of folate intake, compared with the lowest quartile, was 0.78 (95% CI, 0.67-0.90, P-trend = 0.0002). The OR per each quartile increment was 0.92 (95% CI, 0.87-0.96) and, per every 100 µg/day of folate intake, was 0.89 (95% CI, 0.84-0.95). There was a significant interaction between folate intake and alcohol consumption (P-interaction = 0.02). The lower risk of GC associated with higher folate intake was not observed in participants who consumed >2.0 drinks per day, ORQ4v Q1 = 1.15 (95% CI, 0.85-1.56), and the OR100 µg/day = 1.02 (95% CI, 0.92-1.15). Our study supports a beneficial effect of folate intake on GC risk, although the consumption of >2.0 alcoholic drinks/day counteracts this beneficial effect.

Obesity is associated with biliary tract cancer mortality and incidence: A pooled analysis of 21 cohort studies in the Asia Cohort Consortium.

Body fatness is considered a probable risk factor for biliary tract cancer (BTC), whereas cholelithiasis is an established factor. Nevertheless, although obesity is an established risk factor for cholelithiasis, previous studies of the association of body mass index (BMI) and BTC did not take the effect of cholelithiasis fully into account. To better understand the effect of BMI on BTC, we conducted a pooled analysis using population-based cohort studies in Asians. In total, 905 530 subjects from 21 cohort studies participating in the Asia Cohort Consortium were included. BMI was categorized into four groups: underweight (<18.5 kg/m2 ); normal (18.5-22.9 kg/m2 ); overweight (23-24.9 kg/m2 ); and obese (25+ kg/m2 ). The association between BMI and BTC incidence and mortality was assessed using hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) by Cox regression models with shared frailty. Mediation analysis was used to decompose the association into a direct and an indirect (mediated) effect. Compared to normal BMI, high BMI was associated with BTC mortality (HR 1.19 [CI 1.02-1.38] for males, HR 1.30 [1.14-1.49] for females). Cholelithiasis had significant interaction with BMI on BTC risk. BMI was associated with BTC risk directly and through cholelithiasis in females, whereas the association was unclear in males. When cholelithiasis was present, BMI was not associated with BTC death in either males or females. BMI was associated with BTC death among females without cholelithiasis. This study suggests BMI is associated with BTC mortality in Asians. Cholelithiasis appears to contribute to the association; and moreover, obesity appears to increase BTC risk without cholelithiasis.

Diabetes is associated with increased liver cancer incidence and mortality in adults: A report from Asia Cohort Consortium.

There has been growing evidence suggesting that diabetes may be associated with increased liver cancer risk. However, studies conducted in Asian countries are limited. This project considered data of 968,738 adults pooled from 20 cohort studies of Asia Cohort Consortium to examine the association between baseline diabetes and liver cancer incidence and mortality. Cox proportional hazard model and competing risk approach was used for pooled data. Two-stage meta-analysis across studies was also done. There were 839,194 subjects with valid data regarding liver cancer incidence (5654 liver cancer cases [48.29/100,000 person-years]), follow-up time and baseline diabetes (44,781 with diabetes [5.3%]). There were 747,198 subjects with valid data regarding liver cancer mortality (5020 liver cancer deaths [44.03/100,000 person-years]), follow-up time and baseline diabetes (43,243 with diabetes [5.8%]). Hazard ratio (HR) (95% confidence interval [95%CI]) of liver cancer diagnosis in those with vs. without baseline diabetes was 1.97 (1.79, 2.16) (p < .0001) after adjusting for baseline age, gender, body mass index, tobacco smoking, alcohol use, and heterogeneity across studies (n = 586,072; events = 4620). Baseline diabetes was associated with increased cumulative incidence of death due to liver cancer (adjusted HR (95%CI) = 1.97 (1.79, 2.18); p < .0001) (n = 595,193; events = 4110). A two-stage meta-analytic approach showed similar results. This paper adds important population-based evidence to current literature regarding the increased incidence and mortality of liver cancer in adults with diabetes. The analysis of data pooled from 20 studies of different Asian countries and the meta-analysis across studies with large number of subjects makes the results robust.

Repurposed Antiviral Drugs for Covid-19 - Interim WHO Solidarity Trial Results.

BACKGROUND: World Health Organization expert groups recommended mortality trials of four repurposed antiviral drugs - remdesivir, hydroxychloroquine, lopinavir, and interferon beta-1a - in patients hospitalized with coronavirus disease 2019 (Covid-19). METHODS: We randomly assigned inpatients with Covid-19 equally between one of the trial drug regimens that was locally available and open control (up to five options, four active and the local standard of care). The intention-to-treat primary analyses examined in-hospital mortality in the four pairwise comparisons of each trial drug and its control (drug available but patient assigned to the same care without that drug). Rate ratios for death were calculated with stratification according to age and status regarding mechanical ventilation at trial entry. RESULTS: At 405 hospitals in 30 countries, 11,330 adults underwent randomization; 2750 were assigned to receive remdesivir, 954 to hydroxychloroquine, 1411 to lopinavir (without interferon), 2063 to interferon (including 651 to interferon plus lopinavir), and 4088 to no trial drug. Adherence was 94 to 96% midway through treatment, with 2 to 6% crossover. In total, 1253 deaths were reported (median day of death, day 8; interquartile range, 4 to 14). The Kaplan-Meier 28-day mortality was 11.8% (39.0% if the patient was already receiving ventilation at randomization and 9.5% otherwise). Death occurred in 301 of 2743 patients receiving remdesivir and in 303 of 2708 receiving its control (rate ratio, 0.95; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.81 to 1.11; P = 0.50), in 104 of 947 patients receiving hydroxychloroquine and in 84 of 906 receiving its control (rate ratio, 1.19; 95% CI, 0.89 to 1.59; P = 0.23), in 148 of 1399 patients receiving lopinavir and in 146 of 1372 receiving its control (rate ratio, 1.00; 95% CI, 0.79 to 1.25; P = 0.97), and in 243 of 2050 patients receiving interferon and in 216 of 2050 receiving its control (rate ratio, 1.16; 95% CI, 0.96 to 1.39; P = 0.11). No drug definitely reduced mortality, overall or in any subgroup, or reduced initiation of ventilation or hospitalization duration. CONCLUSIONS: These remdesivir, hydroxychloroquine, lopinavir, and interferon regimens had little or no effect on hospitalized patients with Covid-19, as indicated by overall mortality, initiation of ventilation, and duration of hospital stay. (Funded by the World Health Organization; ISRCTN Registry number, ISRCTN83971151; ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT04315948.).

Towards hepatitis C virus elimination in Iran: A blueprint for comprehensive strategies.

The hepatitis C virus (HCV) continues to pose a significant public health challenge in Iran, mirroring a worldwide concern. This situation calls for a cohesive strategy that aligns with the World Health Organization's (WHO) goals for HCV elimination by 2030. Central to this strategy is targeting high-risk groups, notably people who inject drugs and prisoners, with prevention, screening and treatment. The deployment of point-of-care testing and treatments in prisons and harm reduction facilities is vital. The adoption of cost-effective generic direct-acting antivirals represents a major step forward. Furthermore, innovative educational initiatives for healthcare providers and awareness campaigns for the public are critical. Additionally, tackling stigma, ensuring treatment affordability and upholding strict surveillance and data management, coupled with ongoing policy reviews, are vital components. This comprehensive and integrated approach is designed to drive Iran towards eliminating HCV and can serve as a blueprint for other countries with similar challenges.

Contribution of genetic variants in the development of familial premature coronary artery disease in a cohort of cardiac patients.

Coronary artery disease (CAD), the most prevalent cardiovascular disease, is the leading cause of death worldwide. Heritable factors play a significant role in the pathogenesis of CAD. It has been proposed that approximately one-third of patients with CAD have a positive family history, and individuals with such history are at ~1.5-fold increased risk of CAD in their lifespans. Accordingly, the long-recognized familial clustering of CAD is a strong risk factor for this disease. Our study aimed to identify candidate genetic variants contributing to CAD by studying a cohort of 60 large Iranian families with at least two members in different generations afflicted with premature CAD (PCAD), defined as established disease at ≤45 years in men and ≤55 years in women. Exome sequencing was performed for a subset of the affected individuals, followed by prioritization and Sanger sequencing of candidate variants in all available family members. Subsequently, apparently healthy carriers of potential risk variants underwent coronary computed tomography angiography (CCTA), followed by co-segregation analysis of the combined data. Putative causal variants were identified in seven genes, ABCG8, CD36, CYP27A1, PIK3C2G, RASSF9, RYR2, and ZFYVE21, co-segregating with familial PCAD in seven unrelated families. Among these, PIK3C2G, RASSF9, and ZFYVE21 are novel candidate CAD susceptibility genes. Our findings indicate that rare variants in genes identified in this study are involved in CAD development.

Dental health and lung cancer risk in the Golestan Cohort Study.

BACKGROUND: Poor oral health has been linked to various systemic diseases, including multiple cancer types, but studies of its association with lung cancer have been inconclusive. METHODS: We examined the relationship between dental status and lung cancer incidence and mortality in the Golestan Cohort Study, a large, prospective cohort of 50,045 adults in northeastern Iran. Cox proportional hazards models were used to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for associations between three dental health measures (i.e., number of missing teeth; the sum of decayed, missing, or filled teeth (DMFT); and toothbrushing frequency) and lung cancer incidence or mortality with adjustment for multiple potential confounders, including cigarette smoking and opium use. We created tertiles of the number of lost teeth/DMFT score in excess of the loess adjusted, age- and sex-specific predicted numbers, with subjects with the expected number of lost teeth/DMFT or fewer as the reference group. RESULTS: During a median follow-up of 14 years, there were 119 incident lung cancer cases and 98 lung cancer deaths. Higher DMFT scores were associated with a progressively increased risk of lung cancer (linear trend, p = 0.011). Compared with individuals with the expected DMFT score or less, the HRs were 1.27 (95% CI: 0.73, 2.22), 2.15 (95% CI: 1.34, 3.43), and 1.52 (95% CI: 0.81, 2.84) for the first to the third tertiles of DMFT, respectively. The highest tertile of tooth loss also had an increased risk of lung cancer, with a HR of 1.68 (95% CI: 1.04, 2.70) compared with subjects with the expected number of lost teeth or fewer (linear trend, p = 0.043). The results were similar for lung cancer mortality and did not change substantially when the analysis was restricted to never users of cigarettes or opium. We found no associations between toothbrushing frequency and lung cancer incidence or mortality. CONCLUSION: Poor dental health indicated by tooth loss or DMFT, but not lack of toothbrushing, was associated with increased lung cancer incidence and mortality in this rural Middle Eastern population.

Dietary intake of vitamin C and gastric cancer: a pooled analysis within the Stomach cancer Pooling (StoP) Project.

BACKGROUND: Previous studies suggest that dietary vitamin C is inversely associated with gastric cancer (GC), but most of them did not consider intake of fruit and vegetables. Thus, we aimed to evaluate this association within the Stomach cancer Pooling (StoP) Project, a consortium of epidemiological studies on GC. METHODS: Fourteen case-control studies were included in the analysis (5362 cases, 11,497 controls). We estimated odds ratios (ORs) and corresponding 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for the association between dietary intake of vitamin C and GC, adjusted for relevant confounders and for intake of fruit and vegetables. The dose-response relationship was evaluated using mixed-effects logistic models with second-order fractional polynomials. RESULTS: Individuals in the highest quartile of dietary vitamin C intake had reduced odds of GC compared with those in the lowest quartile (OR: 0.64; 95% CI: 0.58, 0.72). Additional adjustment for fruit and vegetables intake led to an OR of 0.85 (95% CI: 0.73, 0.98). A significant inverse association was observed for noncardia GC, as well as for both intestinal and diffuse types of the disease. The results of the dose-response analysis showed decreasing ORs of GC up to 150-200 mg/day of vitamin C (OR: 0.54; 95% CI: 0.41, 0.71), whereas ORs for higher intakes were close to 1.0. CONCLUSIONS: The findings of our pooled study suggest that vitamin C is inversely associated with GC, with a potentially beneficial effect also for intakes above the currently recommended daily intake (90 mg for men and 75 mg for women).

The association between dietary fiber intake and gastric cancer: a pooled analysis of 11 case-control studies.

PURPOSE: Gastric cancer (GC) is among the leading causes of cancer mortality worldwide. The objective of this study was to investigate the association between dietary fiber intake and GC. METHODS: We pooled data from 11 population or hospital-based case-control studies included in the Stomach Cancer Pooling (StoP) Project, for a total of 4865 histologically confirmed cases and 10,626 controls. Intake of dietary fibers and other dietary factors was collected using food frequency questionnaires. We calculated the odds ratios (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) of the association between dietary fiber intake and GC by using a multivariable logistic regression model adjusted for study site, sex, age, caloric intake, smoking, fruit and vegetable intake, and socioeconomic status. We conducted stratified analyses by these factors, as well as GC anatomical site and histological type. RESULTS: The OR of GC for an increase of one quartile of fiber intake was 0.91 (95% CI: 0.85, 0.97), that for the highest compared to the lowest quartile of dietary fiber intake was 0.72 (95% CI: 0.59, 0.88). Results were similar irrespective of anatomical site and histological type. CONCLUSION: Our analysis supports the hypothesis that dietary fiber intake may exert a protective effect on GC.

Validity and reproducibility of the PERSIAN Cohort food frequency questionnaire: assessment of major dietary patterns.

BACKGROUND: Dietary patterns, encompassing an overall view of individuals' dietary intake, are suggested as a suitable means of assessing nutrition's role in chronic disease development. The aim of this study was to evaluate the validity and reproducibility of a food frequency questionnaire (FFQ) designed for use in the Prospective Epidemiological Research Studies in IrAN (PERSIAN), by comparing major dietary patterns assessed by the FFQ with a reference method. METHODS: Study participants included men and women who enrolled in the PERSIAN Cohort Study at seven of the eighteen centers. These centers were chosen to include dietary variations observed among the different Iranian ethnic populations. Two FFQ were completed for each participant over a one-year study period (FFQ1 upon enrollment and FFQ2 at the end of the study), with 24 interviewer-administered 24-hour dietary recalls (24 h) being completed monthly in between. Spearman correlation coefficients (SCC) were used comparing FFQs 1 and 2 to the 24 h to assess validity, while FFQ1 was compared to FFQ2 to assess reproducibility of the questionnaire. RESULTS: Three major dietary patterns-Healthy, Low Protein/High Carb and Unhealthy-were identified, accounting for 70% of variance in the study population. Corrected SCC ranged from 0.31 to 0.61 in the validity and from 0.34 to 0.57 in reproducibility analyses, with the first two patterns, which accounted for over 50% of population variance, correlated at above 0.5 in both parameters, showing acceptable findings. CONCLUSIONS: The PERSIAN Cohort FFQ is suitable for identification of major dietary patterns in the populations it is used for, in order to assess diet-disease relationships.

Chitosan-modified manganese oxide-conjugated methotrexate nanoparticles delivering 5-aminolevulinic acid as a dual-modal T1-T2* MRI contrast agent in U87MG cell detection.

OBJECTIVE: Glioblastoma multiforme is a highly aggressive form of brain cancer, and early diagnosis plays a pivotal role in improving patient survival rates. In this regard, molecular magnetic resonance imaging has emerged as a promising imaging modality due to its exceptional sensitivity to minute tissue changes and the ability to penetrate deep into the brain. This study aimed to assess the efficacy of a novel contrast agent in detecting gliomas during MRI scans. MATERIALS AND METHODS: The contrast agent utilized modified chitosan coating on manganese oxide nanoparticles. The modification included adding methotrexate and 5-aminolevulinic acid (MnO2/CS@5-ALA-MTX) to target cells with overexpressed folate receptors and breaking down excess hydrogen peroxide in tumor tissue, resulting in enhanced signal intensity in T1-weighted MR images but diminished signal intensity in T2*-weighted MR images. RESULTS: The nanosystem was characterized and evaluated in MR imaging, safety, and ability to target cells both in vivo and in vitro. MTX-free nanoparticles (MnO2/CS@5-ALA NPs) had no obvious cytotoxicity on cell lines U87MG and NIH3T3 after 24/48 h at a concentration of up to 160 µgr/mL (cell viability more than 80%). In this system, methotrexate enables tumor targeting and the MnO2/5-ALA improves T1-T2*-weighted MRI. In addition, MRI scans of mice with M109 carcinoma indicated significant tumor uptake and NP capacity to improve the positive contrast effect. CONCLUSION: This developed MnO2/CS@5-ALA-MTX nanoparticle system may exhibit great potential in the accurate diagnosis of folate receptor over-expressing cancers such as glioblastoma.

Epidemiologic profile of inflammatory bowel disease in Eastern Mediterranean Region (EMRO) countries: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: Inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) consists of two main types: Crohn's disease (CD) and ulcerative colitis (UC). The epidemiology of IBD patients has not been comprehensively studied in EMRO countries; therefore, we conducted this meta-analysis to study the epidemiology of this disease in these countries. METHODS: We searched four international databases, namely Scopus, Web of Knowledge (ISI), Medline/PubMed, and ProQuest, from inception up to the end of May 2023. The Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Review and Meta-analysis (PRISMA) guideline was used to carry out this systematic review and meta-analysis investigation. Using the Joanna Briggs Institute (JBI) Critical Appraisal Checklist, the quality of the selected papers was assessed. RESULTS: Based on the results of this study, the incidence of UC in EMRO countries was 2.65 per 100,000 (95% CI: 1.39-3.90), and the incidence of CD was 1.16 per 100,000 (95% CI: 0.73-1.59). The most commonly involved intestinal segment in CD was the terminal ileum (44.7%, 95% CI: 34.7-55.2), followed by the ileum (29.8%, 95% CI: 22.2-38.6), and colon (18.7%, 95% CI: 10.8-30.4). However, in UC patients, extensive colitis was the most common finding (32.3%, 95% CI: 26.4-38.8), followed by proctosigmoiditis (27.9%, 95% CI: 21.1-35.8), left-sided colitis (27.4%, 95% CI: 22.7-32.7), and proctitis (22.6%, 95% CI: 17.5-28.5). CONCLUSION: As a result, we were able to establish the traits of IBD patients in EMRO nations. UC patients had a higher incidence than CD patients. The most common regions of involvement in CD and UC patients, respectively, were the colon and pancolitis. Compared to UC patients, CD patients had a higher history of appendectomy.

Causes and predictors of premature death in the pars cohort study, Iran: a cohort study.

BACKGROUND: While death in old age is inevitable, premature death at younger ages is within our control. Premature mortality (death < 70 years) is a crucial indicator of health status and access to healthcare, with variations observed across regions. In North Africa and the Middle East, ischemic heart disease (IHD), road injuries, stroke, and chronic kidney disease are projected to be the main causes of premature mortality. Unfortunately, few studies have been conducted on premature mortality worldwide. This study aimed to analyze the causes of premature death and associated risk factors within the Pars Cohort Study. METHODS: The Pars Cohort Study is a prospective cohort study conducted in Fars Province, Iran, involving 9,264 individuals aged 40-75 years, 53.8% of whom were women. We assessed participants from baseline (2012-2014) to 2021. The data were gathered through interviews, biological samples, and physical examinations. The causes of premature mortality, hazard ratios (HRs), and population attributable fraction (PAF) with 95% confidence intervals (95% CIs) for the variables were calculated. RESULTS: Out of 388 deaths, 54% were premature. The most common causes of premature death included IHD (40%), stroke (11%), road traffic injuries (6%), lower respiratory infections (5%), and COVID-19 (3%). The predictive factors [adjusted HRs (95% CIs)] associated with premature mortality included age [year, 1.07 (1.04, 1.10)], tobacco [1.43 (0.96, 2.11)], opium [2.12 (1.39, 3.24)], hypertension [1.52 (1.10, 2.12)], waist circumference [cm, 1.03 (1.00, 1.05)], female sex [0.30 (0.19, 0.47)], education [> 8 years vs. no formal schooling, 0.46 (0.24, 0.88)], being married [0.60 (0.37, 0.97)], physical activity [3rd vs. 1st tertile, 0.38 (0.26, 0.57)], hip circumference [cm, 0.96 (0.92, 0.99)], estimated GFR [mL/min/1.73 m², 0.99 (0.978, 0.999)], and wealth score [4th vs. 1st quartile, 0.54 (0.32, 0.90)]. The PAF (95% CI) for all modifiable predictors was 0.83 (0.62, 0.92). CONCLUSIONS: The predominant causes of premature mortality were IHD and stroke. To mitigate premature deaths, it is recommended to address both socioeconomic and behavioral factors simultaneously.

Age at menarche by birth cohort: A pooled analysis of half a million women in Asia.

OBJECTIVES: To evaluate changes in the age at menarche in Asian populations. STUDY DESIGN: Retrospective cohort study. METHODS: We included 548,830 women from six countries in Asia. The data were sourced from 20 cohorts participating in the Asia Cohort Consortium (ACC) and two additional cohort studies: Japan Multi-institutional Collaborative Cohorts (J-MICC), and Japan Nurse Health Study (JNHS) with data on age at menarche. Joinpoint regression was used to evaluate changes in age at menarche by birth year and by country. RESULTS: The study includes data from cohorts in six Asian countries namely, China, Iran, Japan, Korea, Malaysia and Singapore. Birth cohorts ranged from 1873 to 1995. The mean age of menarche was 14.0 years with a standard deviation (SD) of 1.4 years, ranged from 12.6 to 15.5 years. Over 100 years age at menarche showed an overall decrease in all six countries. China showed a mixed pattern of decrease, increase, and subsequent decrease from 1926 to 1960. Iran and Malaysia experienced a sharp decline between about 1985 and 1990, with APC values of -4.48 and -1.24, respectively, while Japan, South Korea, and Singapore exhibited a nearly linear decline since the 1980s, notably with an APC of -3.41 in Singapore from 1993 to 1995. CONCLUSIONS: Overall, we observed a declining age at menarche, while the pace of the change differed by country. Additional long-term observation is needed to examine the contributing factors of differences in trend across Asian countries. The study could serve as a tool to strengthen global health campaigns.

Sex and smoking differences in the association between gastroesophageal reflux and risk of esophageal squamous cell carcinoma in a high-incidence area: Golestan Cohort Study.

Prior studies have conflicting findings regarding the association between gastroesophageal reflux disease (GERD) and esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC). We examined this relationship in a prospective cohort in a region of high ESCC incidence. Baseline exposure data were collected from 50 045 individuals using in-person interviews at the time of cohort entry. Participants were followed until they developed cancer, died, or were lost to follow up. Participants with GERD symptoms were categorized into any GERD (heartburn or regurgitation), mixed symptoms, or heartburn alone. Multivariable Cox regression was used to assess the relationship between GERD symptom group and histologically confirmed ESCC. The model was adjusted for known risk factors for GERD and ESCC. 49 559 individuals were included in this study, of which 9005 had GERD symptoms. Over 13.0 years of median follow up, 290 individuals were diagnosed with ESCC. We found no association between any GERD and risk of ESCC (aHR 0.90, 95% CI: 0.66-1.24, P = .54). Similar findings were observed for the GERD symptom subtypes. Significant interactions between any GERD and sex (P = .013) as well as tobacco smoking (P = .028) were observed. In post-hoc analyses, GERD was associated with a decreased risk of ESCC in men (aHR 0.51, 95% CI: 0.27-0.98 P = .04) and in smokers (aHR 0.26, 95% CI: 0.08-0.83 P = .02). While there was little evidence for an overall association between GERD symptoms and ESCC risk, significant interactions with sex and smoking were observed. Men and smokers with GERD symptoms had a lower risk of ESCC development.

Esophageal and gastric cancer incidence trends in Golestan, Iran: An age-period-cohort analysis 2004 to 2018.

Golestan province in the northeast of Iran is part of the Asian esophageal cancer belt and is known as a high-risk area for esophageal (EC) and gastric cancers (GC). Data on incident cases of EC and GC during 2004 to 2018 were obtained from the Golestan Population-based Cancer Registry (GPCR). The age-standardized incidence rates (ASRs) were calculated and presented per 100 000 person-years. The estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) with 95% confidence interval (95% CI) were calculated. We also fitted age-period-cohort (APC) models to assess nonlinear period and cohort effects as incidence rate ratios (IRRs). Overall, 3004 new cases of EC (ASR = 15.7) and 3553 cases of GC (ASR = 18.3) were registered in the GPCR. We found significant decreasing trends in incidence rates of EC (EAPC = -5.0; 95% CI: -7.8 to -2.2) and less marked nonsignificant trends for GC (EAPC = -1.4; 95% CI: -4.0 to 1.4) during 2004 to 2018. There was a strong cohort effect for EC with a consistent decrease in the IRR across successive birth cohorts, starting with the oldest birth cohort (1924; IRR = 1.9 vs the reference birth cohort of 1947) through to the most recent cohort born in 1988 (IRR = 0.1). The marked declines in EC incidence rates in Golestan relate to generational changes in its underlying risk factors. Despite favorable trends, this population remains at high risk of both EC and GC. Further studies are warranted to measure the impact of the major risk factors on incidence with a view to designing effective preventative programs.

Population attributable proportion and number of cancer cases attributed to potentially modifiable risk factors in Iran in 2020.

In the current study, we aimed to calculate the fraction of cancer attributable to modifiable risk factors in Iran in 2020. Population attributable fractions (PAFs) were calculated for established cancer risk factors using three data sources: the national cancer incidence reports, relative risks extracted from global and national meta-analyses, and exposure prevalence from national/subnational population-based surveys. In addition to overall cancers, the PAFs were estimated separately for each cancer site among men and women. Overall, 32.6% of cancers in 2020 in Iran were attributable to known risk factors. The PAF in men (40.2%) was twice as high as in women (21.1%). Cigarette smoking (15.4%), being overweight (5.0%), opium use (3.9%) and H. pylori infection (3.8%) were the leading causes of cancers. For men, the highest PAFs belonged to cigarette smoking (26.3%), opium use (6.8%) and being overweight (3.1%), while for women, the highest PAFs belonged to being overweight (7.2%), H. pylori infection (2.7%) and cigarette smoking (2.7%). Among Iranian men and women, the PAFs of waterpipe smoking were 2% and 0.9%, respectively. A third of incident cancers in Iran are due to modifiable exposures, mainly cigarette smoking, being overweight, and H. pylori infection. Opium consumption and waterpipe smoking collectively accounted for 8.8% of cancer occurrence in men and 1.3% in women in Iran. These emerging risk factors should be taken into consideration in future PAF studies.

Opium use and risk of lung cancer: A multicenter case-control study in Iran.

Opium use was recently classified as a human carcinogen for lung cancer by the International Agency for Research on Cancer. We conducted a large, multicenter case-control study evaluating the association between opium use and the risk of lung cancer. We recruited 627 cases and 3477 controls from May 2017 to July 2020. We used unconditional logistic regression analyses to estimate the odds ratios (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) and measured the association between opium use and the risk of lung cancer. The ORs were adjusted for the residential place, age, gender, socioeconomic status, cigarettes, and water pipe smoking. We found a 3.6-fold risk of lung cancer for regular opium users compared to never users (95% CI: 2.9, 4.6). There was a strong dose-response association between a cumulative count of opium use and lung cancer risk. The OR for regular opium use was higher for small cell carcinoma than in other histology (8.3, 95% CI: 4.8, 14.4). The OR of developing lung cancer among opium users was higher in females (7.4, 95% CI: 3.8, 14.5) than in males (3.3, 95% CI: 2.6, 4.2). The OR for users of both opium and tobacco was 13.4 (95% CI: 10.2, 17.7) compared to nonusers of anything. The risk of developing lung cancer is higher in regular opium users, and these results strengthen the conclusions on the carcinogenicity of opium. The association is stronger for small cell carcinoma cases than in other histology.