ClinGen guidance for use of the PP1/BS4 co-segregation and PP4 phenotype specificity criteria for sequence variant pathogenicity classification.

The 2015 American College of Medical Genetics and Genomics and the Association for Molecular Pathology variant classification publication established a standard employed internationally to guide laboratories in variant assessment. Those recommendations included both pathogenic (PP1) and benign (BS4) criteria for evaluating the inheritance patterns of variants, but details of how to apply those criteria at appropriate evidence levels were sparse. Several publications have since attempted to provide additional guidance, but anecdotally, this issue is still challenging. Additionally, it is not clear that those prior efforts fully distinguished disease-gene identification considerations from variant pathogenicity considerations nor did they address autosomal-recessive and X-linked inheritance. Here, we have taken a mixed inductive and deductive approach to this problem using real diseases as examples. We have developed a practical heuristic for genetic co-segregation evidence and have also determined that the specific phenotype criterion (PP4) is inseparably coupled to the co-segregation criterion. We have also determined that negative evidence at one locus constitutes positive evidence for other loci for disorders with locus heterogeneity. Finally, we provide a points-based system for evaluating phenotype and co-segregation as evidence types to support or refute a locus and show how that can be integrated into the Bayesian framework now used for variant classification and consistent with the 2015 guidelines.

Challenges and approaches to calibrating patient phenotype as evidence for cancer gene variant classification under ACMG/AMP guidelines.

Since first publication of the American College of Medical Genetics and Genomics/Association for Medical Pathology (ACMG/AMP) variant classification guidelines, additional recommendations for application of certain criteria have been released (https://clinicalgenome.org/docs/), to improve their application in the diagnostic setting. However, none have addressed use of the PS4 and PP4 criteria, capturing patient presentation as evidence towards pathogenicity. Application of PS4 can be done through traditional case-control studies, or "proband counting" within or across clinical testing cohorts. Review of the existing PS4 and PP4 specifications for Hereditary Cancer Gene Variant Curation Expert Panels revealed substantial differences in the approach to defining specifications. Using BRCA1, BRCA2 and TP53 as exemplar genes, we calibrated different methods proposed for applying the "PS4 proband counting" criterion. For each approach, we considered limitations, non-independence with other ACMG/AMP criteria, broader applicability, and variability in results for different datasets. Our findings highlight inherent overlap of proband-counting methods with ACMG/AMP frequency codes, and the importance of calibration to derive dataset-specific code weights that can account for potential between-dataset differences in ascertainment and other factors. Our work emphasizes the advantages and generalizability of logistic regression analysis over simple proband-counting approaches to empirically determine the relative predictive capacity and weight of various personal clinical features in the context of multigene panel testing, for improved variant interpretation. We also provide a general protocol, including instructions for data formatting and a web-server for analysis of personal history parameters, to facilitate dataset-specific calibration analyses required to use such data for germline variant classification.

Calibration of computational tools for missense variant pathogenicity classification and ClinGen recommendations for PP3/BP4 criteria.

Recommendations from the American College of Medical Genetics and Genomics and the Association for Molecular Pathology (ACMG/AMP) for interpreting sequence variants specify the use of computational predictors as "supporting" level of evidence for pathogenicity or benignity using criteria PP3 and BP4, respectively. However, score intervals defined by tool developers, and ACMG/AMP recommendations that require the consensus of multiple predictors, lack quantitative support. Previously, we described a probabilistic framework that quantified the strengths of evidence (supporting, moderate, strong, very strong) within ACMG/AMP recommendations. We have extended this framework to computational predictors and introduce a new standard that converts a tool's scores to PP3 and BP4 evidence strengths. Our approach is based on estimating the local positive predictive value and can calibrate any computational tool or other continuous-scale evidence on any variant type. We estimate thresholds (score intervals) corresponding to each strength of evidence for pathogenicity and benignity for thirteen missense variant interpretation tools, using carefully assembled independent data sets. Most tools achieved supporting evidence level for both pathogenic and benign classification using newly established thresholds. Multiple tools reached score thresholds justifying moderate and several reached strong evidence levels. One tool reached very strong evidence level for benign classification on some variants. Based on these findings, we provide recommendations for evidence-based revisions of the PP3 and BP4 ACMG/AMP criteria using individual tools and future assessment of computational methods for clinical interpretation.

Comprehensive evaluation and efficient classification of BRCA1 RING domain missense substitutions.

BRCA1 is a high-risk susceptibility gene for breast and ovarian cancer. Pathogenic protein-truncating variants are scattered across the open reading frame, but all known missense substitutions that are pathogenic because of missense dysfunction are located in either the amino-terminal RING domain or the carboxy-terminal BRCT domain. Heterodimerization of the BRCA1 and BARD1 RING domains is a molecularly defined obligate activity. Hence, we tested every BRCA1 RING domain missense substitution that can be created by a single nucleotide change for heterodimerization with BARD1 in a mammalian two-hybrid assay. Downstream of the laboratory assay, we addressed three additional challenges: assay calibration, validation thereof, and integration of the calibrated results with other available data, such as computational evidence and patient/population observational data to achieve clinically applicable classification. Overall, we found that 15%-20% of BRCA1 RING domain missense substitutions are pathogenic. Using a Bayesian point system for data integration and variant classification, we achieved clinical classification of 89% of observed missense substitutions. Moreover, among missense substitutions not present in the human observational data used here, we find an additional 45 with concordant computational and functional assay evidence in favor of pathogenicity plus 223 with concordant evidence in favor of benignity; these are particularly likely to be classified as likely pathogenic and likely benign, respectively, once human observational data become available.

Assessment of the evidence yield for the calibrated PP3/BP4 computational recommendations.

PURPOSE: To investigate the number of rare missense variants observed in human genome sequences by ACMG/AMP PP3/BP4 evidence strength, following the calibrated PP3/BP4 computational recommendations. METHODS: Missense variants from the genome sequences of 300 probands from the Rare Genomes Project with suspected rare disease were analyzed using computational prediction tools able to reach PP3_Strong and BP4_Moderate evidence strengths (BayesDel, MutPred2, REVEL, and VEST4). The numbers of variants at each evidence strength were analyzed across disease-associated genes and genome-wide. RESULTS: From a median of 75.5 rare (≤1% allele frequency) missense variants in disease-associated genes per proband, a median of one reached PP3_Strong, 3-5 PP3_Moderate, and 3-5 PP3_Supporting. Most were allocated BP4 evidence (median 41-49 per proband) or were indeterminate (median 17.5-19 per proband). Extending the analysis to all protein-coding genes genome-wide, the number of PP3_Strong variants increased approximately 2.6-fold compared to disease-associated genes, with a median per proband of 1-3 PP3_Strong, 8-16 PP3_Moderate, and 10-17 PP3_Supporting. CONCLUSION: A small number of variants per proband reached PP3_Strong and PP3_Moderate in 3,424 disease-associated genes, and though not the intended use of the recommendations, also genome-wide. Use of PP3/BP4 evidence as recommended from calibrated computational prediction tools in the clinical diagnostic laboratory is unlikely to inappropriately contribute to the classification of an excessive number of variants as Pathogenic or Likely Pathogenic by ACMG/AMP rules.

Gene-specific ACMG/AMP classification criteria for germline APC variants: Recommendations from the ClinGen InSiGHT Hereditary Colorectal Cancer/Polyposis Variant Curation Expert Panel.

PURPOSE: The Hereditary Colorectal Cancer/Polyposis Variant Curation Expert Panel (VCEP) was established by the International Society for Gastrointestinal Hereditary Tumours and the Clinical Genome Resource, who set out to develop recommendations for the interpretation of germline APC variants underlying Familial Adenomatous Polyposis, the most frequent hereditary polyposis syndrome. METHODS: Through a rigorous process of database analysis, literature review, and expert elicitation, the APC VCEP derived gene-specific modifications to the ACMG/AMP (American College of Medical Genetics and Genomics and Association for Molecular Pathology) variant classification guidelines and validated such criteria through the pilot classification of 58 variants. RESULTS: The APC-specific criteria represented gene- and disease-informed specifications, including a quantitative approach to allele frequency thresholds, a stepwise decision tool for truncating variants, and semiquantitative evaluations of experimental and clinical data. Using the APC-specific criteria, 47% (27/58) of pilot variants were reclassified including 14 previous variants of uncertain significance (VUS). CONCLUSION: The APC-specific ACMG/AMP criteria preserved the classification of well-characterized variants on ClinVar while substantially reducing the number of VUS by 56% (14/25). Moving forward, the APC VCEP will continue to interpret prioritized lists of VUS, the results of which will represent the most authoritative variant classification for widespread clinical use.

A calibrated cell-based functional assay to aid classification of MLH1 DNA mismatch repair gene variants.

Functional assays provide important evidence for classifying the disease significance of germline variants in DNA mismatch repair genes. Numerous laboratories, including our own, have developed functional assays to study mismatch repair gene variants. However, previous assays are limited due to the model system employed, the manner of gene expression, or the environment in which function is assessed. Here, we developed a human cell-based approach for testing the function of variants of uncertain significance (VUS) in the MLH1 gene. Using clustered regularly interspaced short palindromic repeats gene editing, we knocked in MLH1 VUS into the endogenous MLH1 loci in human embryonic stem cells. We examined their impact on RNA and protein, including their ability to prevent microsatellite instability and instigate a DNA damage response. A statistical clustering analysis determined the range of functions associated with known pathogenic or benign variants, and linear regression was performed using existing odds in favor of pathogenicity scores for these control variants to calibrate our functional assay results. By converting the functional outputs into a single odds in favor of pathogenicity score, variant classification expert panels can use these results to readily reassess these VUS. Ultimately, this information will guide proper diagnosis and disease management for suspected Lynch syndrome patients.

An updated quantitative model to classify missense variants in the TP53 gene: A novel multifactorial strategy.

Multigene panel testing has led to an increase in the number of variants of uncertain significance identified in the TP53 gene, associated with Li-Fraumeni syndrome. We previously developed a quantitative model for predicting the pathogenicity of P53 missense variants based on the combination of calibrated bioinformatic information and somatic to germline ratio. Here, we extended this quantitative model for the classification of P53 predicted missense variants by adding new pieces of evidence (personal and family history parameters, loss-of-function results, population allele frequency, healthy individual status by age 60, and breast tumor pathology). We also annotated which missense variants might have an effect on splicing based on bioinformatic predictions. This updated model plus annotation led to the classification of 805 variants into a clinically relevant class, which correlated well with existing ClinVar classifications, and resolved a large number of conflicting and uncertain classifications. We propose this model as a reliable approach to TP53 germline variant classification and emphasize its use in contributing to optimize TP53-specific ACMG/AMP guidelines.

Fitting a naturally scaled point system to the ACMG/AMP variant classification guidelines.

Recently, we demonstrated that the qualitative American College of Medical Genetics and Genomics/Association for Medical Pathology (ACMG/AMP) guidelines for evaluation of Mendelian disease gene variants are fundamentally compatible with a quantitative Bayesian formulation. Here, we show that the underlying ACMG/AMP "strength of evidence categories" can be abstracted into a point system. These points are proportional to Log(odds), are additive, and produce a system that recapitulates the Bayesian formulation of the ACMG/AMP guidelines. The strengths of this system are its simplicity and that the connection between point values and odds of pathogenicity allows empirical calibration of the strength of evidence for individual data types. Weaknesses include that a narrow range of prior probabilities is locked in and that the Bayesian nature of the system is inapparent. We conclude that a points-based system has the practical attribute of user-friendliness and can be useful so long as the underlying Bayesian principles are acknowledged.

Two integrated and highly predictive functional analysis-based procedures for the classification of MSH6 variants in Lynch syndrome.

PURPOSE: Variants in the DNA mismatch repair (MMR) gene MSH6, identified in individuals suspected of Lynch syndrome, are difficult to classify owing to the low cancer penetrance of defects in that gene. This not only obfuscates personalized health care but also the development of a rapid and reliable classification procedure that does not require clinical data. METHODS: The complete in vitro MMR activity (CIMRA) assay was calibrated against clinically classified MSH6 variants and, employing Bayes' rule, integrated with computational predictions of pathogenicity. To enable the validation of this two-component classification procedure we have employed a genetic screen to generate a large set of inactivating Msh6 variants, as proxies for pathogenic variants. RESULTS: The genetic screen-derived variants established that the two-component classification procedure displays high sensitivities and specificities. Moreover, these inactivating variants enabled the direct reclassification of human variants of uncertain significance (VUS) as (likely) pathogenic. CONCLUSION: The two-component classification procedure and the genetic screens provide complementary approaches to rapidly and cost-effectively classify the large majority of human MSH6 variants. The approach followed here provides a template for the classification of variants in other disease-predisposing genes, facilitating the translation of personalized genomics into personalized health care.

Genetic predisposition to colorectal cancer: syndromes, genes, classification of genetic variants and implications for precision medicine.

This article reviews genes and syndromes associated with predisposition to colorectal cancer (CRC), with an overview of gene variant classification. We include updates on the application of preventive and therapeutic measures, focusing on the use of non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAIDs) and immunotherapy. Germline pathogenic variants in genes conferring high or moderate risk to cancer are detected in 6-10% of all CRCs and 20% of those diagnosed before age 50. CRC syndromes can be subdivided into nonpolyposis and polyposis entities, the most common of which are Lynch syndrome and familial adenomatous polyposis, respectively. In addition to known and novel genes associated with highly penetrant CRC risk, identification of pathogenic germline variants in genes associated with moderate-penetrance cancer risk and/or hereditary cancer syndromes not traditionally linked to CRC may have an impact on genetic testing, counseling, and surveillance. The use of multigene panels in genetic testing has exposed challenges in the classification of variants of uncertain significance. We provide an overview of the main classification systems and strategies for improving these. Finally, we highlight approaches for integrating chemoprevention in the care of individuals with genetic predisposition to CRC and use of targeted agents and immunotherapy for treatment of mismatch repair-deficient and hypermutant tumors. Copyright © 2018 Pathological Society of Great Britain and Ireland. Published by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

A quantitative model to predict pathogenicity of missense variants in the TP53 gene.

Germline pathogenic variants in the TP53 gene cause Li-Fraumeni syndrome, a condition that predisposes individuals to a wide range of cancer types. Identification of individuals carrying a TP53 pathogenic variant is linked to clinical management decisions, such as the avoidance of radiotherapy and use of high-intensity screening programs. The aim of this study was to develop an evidence-based quantitative model that integrates independent in silico data (Align-GVGD and BayesDel) and somatic to germline ratio (SGR), to assign pathogenicity to every possible missense variant in the TP53 gene. To do this, a likelihood ratio for pathogenicity (LR) was derived from each component calibrated using reference sets of assumed pathogenic and benign missense variants. A posterior probability of pathogenicity was generated by combining LRs, and algorithm outputs were validated using different approaches. A total of 730 TP53 missense variants could be assigned to a clinically interpretable class. The outputs of the model correlated well with existing clinical information, functional data, and ClinVar classifications. In conclusion, these quantitative outputs provide the basis for individualized assessment of cancer risk useful for clinical interpretation. In addition, we propose the value of the novel SGR approach for use within the ACMG/AMP guidelines for variant classification.

Assessing the performance of in silico methods for predicting the pathogenicity of variants in the gene CHEK2, among Hispanic females with breast cancer.

The availability of disease-specific genomic data is critical for developing new computational methods that predict the pathogenicity of human variants and advance the field of precision medicine. However, the lack of gold standards to properly train and benchmark such methods is one of the greatest challenges in the field. In response to this challenge, the scientific community is invited to participate in the Critical Assessment for Genome Interpretation (CAGI), where unpublished disease variants are available for classification by in silico methods. As part of the CAGI-5 challenge, we evaluated the performance of 18 submissions and three additional methods in predicting the pathogenicity of single nucleotide variants (SNVs) in checkpoint kinase 2 (CHEK2) for cases of breast cancer in Hispanic females. As part of the assessment, the efficacy of the analysis method and the setup of the challenge were also considered. The results indicated that though the challenge could benefit from additional participant data, the combined generalized linear model analysis and odds of pathogenicity analysis provided a framework to evaluate the methods submitted for SNV pathogenicity identification and for comparison to other available methods. The outcome of this challenge and the approaches used can help guide further advancements in identifying SNV-disease relationships.

A functional assay-based procedure to classify mismatch repair gene variants in Lynch syndrome.

PURPOSE: To enhance classification of variants of uncertain significance (VUS) in the DNA mismatch repair (MMR) genes in the cancer predisposition Lynch syndrome, we developed the cell-free in vitro MMR activity (CIMRA) assay. Here, we calibrate and validate the assay, enabling its integration with in silico and clinical data. METHODS: Two sets of previously classified MLH1 and MSH2 variants were selected from a curated MMR gene database, and their biochemical activity determined by the CIMRA assay. The assay was calibrated by regression analysis followed by symmetric cross-validation and Bayesian integration with in silico predictions of pathogenicity. CIMRA assay reproducibility was assessed in four laboratories. RESULTS: Concordance between the training runs met our prespecified validation criterion. The CIMRA assay alone correctly classified 65% of variants, with only 3% discordant classification. Bayesian integration with in silico predictions of pathogenicity increased the proportion of correctly classified variants to 87%, without changing the discordance rate. Interlaboratory results were highly reproducible. CONCLUSION: The CIMRA assay accurately predicts pathogenic and benign MMR gene variants. Quantitative combination of assay results with in silico analysis correctly classified the majority of variants. Using this calibration, CIMRA assay results can be integrated into the diagnostic algorithm for MMR gene variants.

Improved, ACMG-compliant, in silico prediction of pathogenicity for missense substitutions encoded by TP53 variants.

Clinical interpretation of germline missense variants represents a major challenge, including those in the TP53 Li-Fraumeni syndrome gene. Bioinformatic prediction is a key part of variant classification strategies. We aimed to optimize the performance of the Align-GVGD tool used for p53 missense variant prediction, and compare its performance to other bioinformatic tools (SIFT, PolyPhen-2) and ensemble methods (REVEL, BayesDel). Reference sets of assumed pathogenic and assumed benign variants were defined using functional and/or clinical data. Area under the curve and Matthews correlation coefficient (MCC) values were used as objective functions to select an optimized protein multisequence alignment with best performance for Align-GVGD. MCC comparison of tools using binary categories showed optimized Align-GVGD (C15 cut-off) combined with BayesDel (0.16 cut-off), or with REVEL (0.5 cut-off), to have the best overall performance. Further, a semi-quantitative approach using multiple tiers of bioinformatic prediction, validated using an independent set of nonfunctional and functional variants, supported use of Align-GVGD and BayesDel prediction for different strength of evidence levels in ACMG/AMP rules. We provide rationale for bioinformatic tool selection for TP53 variant classification, and have also computed relevant bioinformatic predictions for every possible p53 missense variant to facilitate their use by the scientific and medical community.

Modeling the ACMG/AMP variant classification guidelines as a Bayesian classification framework.

PURPOSE: We evaluated the American College of Medical Genetics and Genomics/Association for Molecular Pathology (ACMG/AMP) variant pathogenicity guidelines for internal consistency and compatibility with Bayesian statistical reasoning. METHODS: The ACMG/AMP criteria were translated into a naive Bayesian classifier, assuming four levels of evidence and exponentially scaled odds of pathogenicity. We tested this framework with a range of prior probabilities and odds of pathogenicity. RESULTS: We modeled the ACMG/AMP guidelines using biologically plausible assumptions. Most ACMG/AMP combining criteria were compatible. One ACMG/AMP likely pathogenic combination was mathematically equivalent to pathogenic and one ACMG/AMP pathogenic combination was actually likely pathogenic. We modeled combinations that include evidence for and against pathogenicity, showing that our approach scored some combinations as pathogenic or likely pathogenic that ACMG/AMP would designate as variant of uncertain significance (VUS). CONCLUSION: By transforming the ACMG/AMP guidelines into a Bayesian framework, we provide a mathematical foundation for what was a qualitative heuristic. Only 2 of the 18 existing ACMG/AMP evidence combinations were mathematically inconsistent with the overall framework. Mixed combinations of pathogenic and benign evidence could yield a likely pathogenic, likely benign, or VUS result. This quantitative framework validates the approach adopted by the ACMG/AMP, provides opportunities to further refine evidence categories and combining rules, and supports efforts to automate components of variant pathogenicity assessments.

Pancreatic cancer as a sentinel for hereditary cancer predisposition.

BACKGROUND: Genes associated with hereditary breast and ovarian cancer (HBOC) and colorectal cancer (CRC) predisposition have been shown to play a role in pancreatic cancer susceptibility. Growing evidence suggests that pancreatic cancer may be useful as a sentinel cancer to identify families that could benefit from HBOC or CRC surveillance, but to date pancreatic cancer is only considered an indication for genetic testing in the context of additional family history. METHODS: Preliminary data generated at the Huntsman Cancer Hospital (HCH) included variants identified on a custom 34-gene panel or 59-gene panel including both known HBOC and CRC genes for respective sets of 66 and 147 pancreatic cancer cases, unselected for family history. Given the strength of preliminary data and corresponding literature, 61 sequential pancreatic cancer cases underwent a custom 14-gene clinical panel. Sequencing data from HCH pancreatic cancer cases, pancreatic cancer cases of the Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA), and an unselected pancreatic cancer screen from the Mayo Clinic were combined in a meta-analysis to estimate the proportion of carriers with pathogenic and high probability of pathogenic variants of uncertain significance (HiP-VUS). RESULTS: Approximately 8.6% of unselected pancreatic cancer cases at the HCH carried a variant with potential HBOC or CRC screening recommendations. A meta-analysis of unselected pancreatic cancer cases revealed that approximately 11.5% carry a pathogenic variant or HiP-VUS. CONCLUSION: With the inclusion of both HBOC and CRC susceptibility genes in a panel test, unselected pancreatic cancer cases act as a useful sentinel cancer to identify asymptomatic at-risk relatives who could benefit from relevant HBOC and CRC surveillance measures.

Panel sequencing of 264 candidate susceptibility genes and segregation analysis in a cohort of non-BRCA1, non-BRCA2 breast cancer families.

PURPOSE: The main aim of this study was to screen epigenetic modifier genes and known breast cancer driver genes for germline mutations in non-BRCA1/2 (BRCAx) breast cancer families in order to identify novel susceptibility genes of moderate-high penetrance. METHODS: We screened 264 candidate susceptibility genes in 656 index cases from non-BRCA1/2 families. Potentially pathogenic candidate mutations were then genotyped in all available family members for the assessment of co-segregation of the variant with disease in the family in order to estimate the breast cancer risks associated with these mutations. For 11 of the candidate susceptibility genes, we screened an additional 800 non-BRCA1/2 breast cancer cases and 787 controls. RESULTS: Only two genes, CHD8 and USH2A showed any evidence of an increased risk of breast cancer (RR = 2.40 (95% CI 1.0-7.32) and 2.48 (95% CI 1.11-6.67), respectively). CONCLUSIONS: We found no convincing evidence that epigenetic modifier and known breast cancer driver genes carry germline mutations that increase breast cancer risk. USH2A is no longer regarded as a breast cancer driver gene and seems an implausible candidate given its association with Usher syndrome. However, somatic mutations in CHD8 have been recently reported, making it an even more promising candidate, but further analysis of CHD8 in very large cohorts of families or case-control studies would be required to determine if it is a moderate-risk breast cancer susceptibility gene.

Adding In Silico Assessment of Potential Splice Aberration to the Integrated Evaluation of BRCA Gene Unclassified Variants.

Clinical mutation screening of the cancer susceptibility genes BRCA1 and BRCA2 generates many unclassified variants (UVs). Most of these UVs are either rare missense substitutions or nucleotide substitutions near the splice junctions of the protein coding exons. Previously, we developed a quantitative method for evaluation of BRCA gene UVs-the "integrated evaluation"-that combines a sequence analysis-based prior probability of pathogenicity with patient and/or tumor observational data to arrive at a posterior probability of pathogenicity. One limitation of the sequence analysis-based prior has been that it evaluates UVs from the perspective of missense substitution severity but not probability to disrupt normal mRNA splicing. Here, we calibrated output from the splice-site fitness program MaxEntScan to generate spliceogenicity-based prior probabilities of pathogenicity for BRCA gene variants; these range from 0.97 for variants with high probability to damage a donor or acceptor to 0.02 for exonic variants that do not impact a splice junction and are unlikely to create a de novo donor. We created a database http://priors.hci.utah.edu/PRIORS/ that provides the combined missense substitution severity and spliceogenicity-based probability of pathogenicity for BRCA gene single-nucleotide substitutions. We also updated the BRCA gene Ex-UV LOVD, available at http://hci-exlovd.hci.utah.edu, with 77 re-evaluable variants.